My consigliere doesn’t let me miss much.
“Did you see the report on what Jack Ma said at Davos? You need to read it – whole thing – because its about where the world is going and it’s the same view we’ve been talking about for years…”
It sure as hell is: “Tech revolution may cause World War III, warns Alibaba billionaire Jack Ma ..”
The key point in his speech was this part:
““The First World War was because of the first technology revolution. The second technology revolution caused World War II,”
What my consigliere and I agree on is that technology waves are critically important to the future of humankind. We’re not the only ones saying it. Plenty of great academics are telling us the same story. A few examples? Sure…
One name few are familiar with is Cesare Marchetti. He’s the godfather of the “S-curve theory.” Interviewed him (back when) and some of that is in the archives *Master Index” on the Peoplenomics side of the house.
The blood and guts of S-curves is simple: As a new technology is introduced, and goes mainstream, a simple cumulative total of “units” will roughly describe an “S” over time. What’s more, as you approach the top of one “S”, the replacement technology will usually be found just beginning it’s big move of mass adoption. This is how waves of innovation overlap.
Along the way, Marchetti discovered something else – which you can find in Wikipedia under the heading “Marchetti’s Constant’:
Marchetti’s constant is the average time spent by a person for commuting each day, which is approximately one hour. The term is a misnomer, because Italian physicist Cesare Marchetti himself attributes the “one hour” finding to transportation analyst and engineer Yacov Zahavi.[1]
Marchetti posits that although forms of urban planning and transport may change, and although some live in villages and others in cities, people gradually adjust their lives to their conditions (including location of their homes relative to their workplace) such that the average travel time stays approximately constant.[1][2] Ever since Neolithic times, people have kept the average time spent per day for travel the same, even though the distance may increase due to the advancements in the means of transportation.
For further reading, Marchetti’s 1985 piece “Swings, Cycles, and the Global Economy” is foundational reading among those of us who strive to understand (OK, and profit from) economic cycles.
The second name I’ll drop is Andrew Odlyzko, who – sayeth the Wikipedia – “…is a mathematician and a former head of the University of Minnesota’s Digital Technology Center and of the Minnesota Supercomputing Institute. He began his career in 1975 at Bell Telephone Laboratories, where he stayed for 26 years before joining the University of Minnesota in 2001.”
If you’re going to remain clear in your Big Picture outlooks, Odlyzko’s papers are all worthy of review. But a grand starting point is his “Isaac Newton, Daniel Defoe, and the dynamics of financial bubbles, ” Another tasty morsel is his “The forgotten discovery of gravity models and the inefficiency of early railway networks…” Odlyzko nailed the growth in SMS messaging, among his many calls…
Works of both gents confirms that there is usually a cyclical (whether Elliott, S-Curves, or technology replacement/succession) angle to most historical examples of massive change. And with those, worries Jack Ma, odds of war go way up.
Trust you saw where “U.S. Sails Warships Through Taiwan Strait, Challenging China”?.
Ma, oh Ma…his concern – and we admit to sharing it: The “New Technology” wave (AI) will increase potential for massive economic displacement by Artificial Intelligence.
Efficient markets might offer that a shortage of resource will reverse the “longage” of humans and wars (and plagues) are just dandy scale-balancers.
When I began writing about this, years ago, it seemed like a far-away and distant problem. Yet, a review of the day’s news flows (once you get past Stone and Trump and Nancy and the Wall) reveals stories like these:
- Information wars endanger civilization, say ‘Doomsday’ experts.
- Soros Warns China Uses Algos to Find Threats to One-Party Rule.
- Will robots take your job? Quarter of US workers at risk.
- ‘AI’ to hit hardest in U.S. heartland and among less-skilled: study.
- Is Big Tech Merging With Big Brother? Kinda Looks Like It.
- Who owns your face? Social media mobs raise new privacy concerns.
- And to top it off? “Artificial Intelligence WARNING: AI ‘capable predicting and manipulating YOUR future’.” Although, so is a biased media…
While most of the MainStreamMedia is focused on Roger Stone’s arrest, there’s a very important Big Picture here that will demand everyone’s attention in the future at much higher levels than the indictment and arrest of a political figure. Such things are usually transient, but they are “the news” as well…so let’s deal with?
Popping Roger Stone
Arrested in Florida following a seven count grand jury indictment (which you can read online here and skip the hysteria of Trump-hating media), the question we’re really interested in getting answered is “Who is the radio host named as a person in the indictment?”
With anti-Trump fever back in the headlines, we continue to ask why there’s been no one going after Hillary Clinton for her campaign-related issues (including funding and promoting “opposition research” but let’s see if the Mueller inquiry can deliver more than a political operative…
Oh, and there are also questions being raised on Alex Jones’ site here about whether the FBI was “in bounds” by apparently tipping-off CNN so they could video tape Stone’s arrest…
With the amount of apparent bias both on the prosecutorial, as well as the media side, we wonder if anyone can get a “fair trial” on claims made. We’ll just make another batch of popcorn, and wait to see what’s next…
Wall Battle’s Third Strike?
Dueling Senate bills have failed to pass and thus, the shutdown is into day 34. See CNBC’s “Shutdown continues: Senate blocks bills to fund government amid fight over Trump border wall” for additional details.
Itg’s axiomatic around here that Trump will only be patient with the congress (and Nancy the Canceler) for just so long. Then, he will use the “nuclear option” by declaring a National Emergency.
Since the markets are up in the pre-opening action (+160 on the Dow futures 90 minutes from the bell) we wouldn’t expect anything to be announced during market hours.
It’s worth mention that in the weekly Federal Reserve H.6 Money Stocks, report out after the close last night, the rate of increase of m1 on a three months basis (annualized) was down to 4.7%, which as we see it, may slow the market as there are higher costs for following when rates go up…which they tend to when the money creation rate slows…but, we shall see.
Meanwhile, the MarketWatch story on Bank of America pegging global economic growth at ZERO is in the ‘must read’ pile.
Last, but not least, the Durable Goods orders likely won’t so again, investors will be doing more seat-of-the-pants and trying to figure out how the “data wave” we have been warning about at the end of the shutdown (whenever the hell that comes) will impact markets.
For now, just another day, unless you hate Trump, in which case try to remember the saying about grand juries. They can “indict a ham sandwich.” Planning a parade?
Coming this weekend: A dissertation on how to restore an old ham radio transmitter (two parts, Sat. and Sun.) while on the Peoplenomics side, we’ll be presenting Ch. 2 of Power in the Second Depression. This chapter focuses on sources of power and where the risks are…
Come on by Monday, if you’re too busy to catch the weekends…promises to be an interesting one with Housing Data coming Tuesday…
Off to apply my ViseGrips to both forearms: I’m not sure how the market goes up with government shut down and global grow is zero. Would drug-testing fail Wall St?
Has anyone but me noticed that Jack Ma looks like The Predator in the Arnold S. movie?
Was the predator made to look like Jack Ma?
Al, that could be seen as a racist remark, except I think the liberals put Asians in the same bucket as whites. So all is forgiven.
George – the FED experimented with easing off quantitative ‘easing’ and instituting rate hikes for less than a year. The ‘market’ started to collapse and the FED had to discontinue its direction and run back into the arms of mommy. I read this as the FED and other central banks just will not give up the game. They will play this out until the dollar is the Venezuelan peso. There is a very definite direction that the FED has taken, so now its just waiting for the run-up to hyperinflation that accompanies all socialist regimes. Very sad end to a once great America. But empires do collapse. Just another cycle!
George, keep up the good work. My son in law is a “coder” and recently left a start up ( that was involved with A.I. ) for a job at Google. He told me they refer to it now as “Machine Learning” instead of Artificial Intelligence. Thought you might find this interesting. Bill
I am a small investor in a machine learning start up here in the Silicon Valley and there is a distinct difference.
AI has a goal to increase the chance of success, ( as it relates to the acquisition of knowledge) but not accuracy
ML has a goal to increase accuracy, but it does not care about success.
AI is decision making and ML allows system to learn things from data.
AI wants to mimic human behavior..ML create self learning algorithms…
I could go on…but I will say they are synergistic. What your son in law probably meant is that ML is the hot new tech play out in the Silicon Valley and he would be right.
I offer my apologies on being unclear or having to many thought paths jammed together in my posts.
I usually have a thousand questions and a thousand thoughts all at the same time.I find that this is both a blessing and a curse. I am also thankful that George allows me the chance to rant and share my opinions even though I digress into different directions all at the same time.
This is also the reason why those that know me and know I have this issue and want to ask my opinion on a subject ask me then tell me to mull it over for a while before sharing any of my thoughts.
My wife has always said tell it in ten words or less..
My thought today..I think we have as a nation already digressed into a one party system! ( I know it isn’t ten words. I just don’t know if I can say it in ten words or not)
http://files.libertyfund.org/files/788/0084_LFeBk.pdf
check it out.. many of the organizations and individuals with both sides of congress’s attention are controlled by the same individuals.. they are just playing ping pong with themselves. it is the same reason why they can control the opposing countries leaders as well to get their way.
It is simple and it works..
Thank you; LOOB, great book.
George,
My take on the impasse in Congress is fairly simple. After much soul searching and worthless prattle, both parties will band together and pass a budget that does zero to fund border security or address immigration reform. They will send this to President Trump, who will most likely veto the bill, and thus the political status quo will effectively throw the President under the bus and they will maintain their lovely little playhouse complete with lobbyists.
Trump was not the “chosen one” and how dare the people think they actually have a say in running the ruling elite’s country. It is just another example of the ruling class crushing the hopes of the peasant class that they have the right to self determination.
If this scenario plays out, President Trump should pardon any and everyone ever connected with him along with himself, fire Mueller, clean house at the FBI and State Department, and hoist a middle finger to Congress, especially the Republican Party.
Yes, Lloyd, that’s about right. See, we, the Little People, are not allowed by the globalists to manage our lives any longer. The globalists that own us are totally against Nationalism for the United States. They are working around the clock and non-stop on all fronts to demonize the White person. They have taken out Sweden, England, and gutted most of Europe. America has also been gutted, but it was kept under wraps for 30 years due to them also owning our press, and the Federal Reserve, movies, tv, radios, newspapers (print) to spread their propaganda. Europe is gone, America is gone. One would think that protecting our borders, controlling the immigration into this country, would be job #1 and supported by our elected leaders, but sadly it is not so. We are now ALL owned, akin to slaves, debt slaves from cradle to grave. It isn’t the collapse of the dollar that is unsurvivable, it is the ends that the globalists will go to crush America; think war and deaths of hundreds of millions, that is the end game. When one truly researches WW1 and WW2, one will see the intended consequences that have allowed us to arrive at today. A 100 year plus plan playing out perfectly. Who can rival a plan that was before we were born and will outlive us all? It’s just in our faces now, unabashedly, braggartly and proudly unashamed.
Might a true patriot and others have a ‘short list’ of items that are ‘rotten’, to eliminate when ‘cleaning house’….
Big tech IS big brother.
Might AI be used in place of CONgress since there seems to be a LACK of ‘intelligence’ in the DC ‘swamp’…….OR can we go back to ‘duels’ between the warring sides (pick your rep to duel for your side) to foster the outcome of political bills…..this could ‘kill two birds with one stone’….worth a try….imo
George,
On Popping Roger Stone…that is the second close/fixer lawyer of Trumps that has been charged. Common sense says…a guy like Trump who is so dependent on lawyers to survive, has to be in the know of his own attorneys activities. Especially Roger Stone, who is also a close, personal friend.
Also…Did you ever consider that the radio host could have been Hannity, who also has a radio talk show? And the tip off to CNN could a been a blow to the bough of Fox to show that the Mueller team is on to their state run media ways? My second guess is Alex Jones, although I don’t know of many who could ever take his fantasy conspiracy theory schtick seriously. His antics makes the National Enquirer look like a annual Pulitzer winning pub.
According to the news reports it was Jerome Corsi
It occurs to me that while A.I. is fast — it can beat your butt at chess, and “WOPPER” can beat the Russkis at Global Thermonuclear War — and Collusus/Guardian might be able to think fast enough and ruthlessly enough to Rule The World….
But….
Will the A.I.s ever be happy? Or, will they be depressed and unfulfilled by their lack of the ability to “feel?”
Do we have a spiritual essence that (possibly), even if they attain something akin to true “consciousless,” how would they ever know for sure? I think it’s a quantum consciousness problem, and a high value for RAM or “Core,” or speedy processing (maybe) can never convey True Self Awareness or True Consciousness.
Is a deep desire for personal Liberty and the “knowing” of your own Consciousness something that machines — no matter how clever and speedy — something that machines can never attain? And will they ever realize that? And would they become depressed if they calculated that Truth as High Probability?
Then what happens?
(Maybe I’m an idiot, but they don’t scare me. I know I have something they can never achieve.)
hey George,
as far as how does the market go up with the government shut down?
revisit Martin Armstrong.
where is the safe haven when government IS the problem?
Texas
Mark, 2 examples of productive debt.
1. A home mortgage. As you pay it back, you accumulate equity. Since you are in the business, it should be easy for you to understand, so I made it #1.
2. A Wall. As you stop or decrease the rate of immigration, you decrease the cost to taxpayers of illegal immigration.
I hope you learned something. The goal of productive debt is to increase the person’s or the country’s net worth. In addition, to further compound your net worth, if you use PT’s preferred method, you start a corporation, list it on an exchange, sell stock, suck all the money out, & then go bankrupt.
Here’s something for all you Preppers and urban survivalist my next door neighbor died a couple years ago he was right at 90 and the year before I told him a lot of stuff I’d like to do ,he said brice ,who’s going to do all that because as you get older you still got the dreams but you don’t have the ability unless you got the Millions, what’s the body wears down even if you have the brains what are you going to do.
that’s where Community comes in someone that can help you finish the garden out that year someone who can fix the tractor someone who can take over where the old man left off.
Someone with enough knowledge to teach the young ones how to survive without the present system.
Make sure you know your neighbor and they have your back and you have others if y’all have a basis to do so.
Like some say violence is necessary yes if someone’s coming at you destroying everything you work for violence is necessary to keep the offending Force off.
Otherwise may all beings be loving fulfilled, financially fulfilled and readily fulfilled, SO BE IT.
PS my lazy Porch Garden is getting lazier but at least it gives me warmth 80 90 degrees when it’s 23 degrees outside and it comes from the sun.
When the sun doesn’t come out that’s when we need to have those long tubes that go 70 80 feet out 78 ft crossed 70. 80 ft back to your Greenhouse so your porch or underneath your house that way you’ll have the 50 some degree temperature heating your house when it’s below freezing it’ll give you heat assistance keep you from freezing and your plants because yes we are getting ready to go into that differential Ice Age which means the sun isn’t putting out and the magnetic poles are shifting and the weather is shifting am I would not like to make any guesses so I would like to be prepared
If PT can get himself out of the mess he has caused, he will be considered a genius. But based on his inaction & poor leadership, it looks highly unlikely. So far, PT has been a disappointment. He rose to his level of imcompetence & is frozen in inaction. But the good is, the chip stocks keep going up to fuel the AI generation which is about to explode.
The question is did HR 25 pass regarding the IRS.
The other thing is there was something that Trump wanting to put in and some say it could be immediate or it could pass later this year.
So don’t understand what’s going on you’d have to have three to four chess boards going at once and whether you want to put them flat on a table or one on top of the other so that if one fails the next one comes through or if the next one comes through the next one after that one is lined up so loving this chessboard is pretty big pretty elaborate I mean we have thousands of people you are behind the movement against the ten thousands of people or the hundreds thousands of people that are behind the Rothschild pedophile banking system and the Vatican and the Queen and everything else in between.
But the secret weapon is the law allowing the president to take over the NSA the FBI the CIA and all the 13 to 15 or whatever other agencies and to take over the Federal Reserve and all the corporations wealth and the space agencies that we have in space because this big grandier thing like I said a long time ago came from Randy Cramer said the Marines said yes we need to expose this there’s going to be a war on Earth and this type of War over control of Earth which was exposed years and years ago so now we’re in that in this year now 2019 you can be in it or you can be sitting back on your rocking chair and watching..
The future is already known because there’s more than one time travel Expedition we have the ones that are on our side and ones it’s on their side so there’s a war going on with time travel .
each time one goes back at whatever time it is and change something the other one has to go back and read change it this is what’s happening this is how come there’s so many unstable things going on because your time is being changed constantly..
And it’s up to each individual to have some understanding of what’s going on so that you have control with your thoughts because if you allow what they want you to know enter into your thoughts then your thoughts change the future in that direction but if you don’t allow that and you have thoughts in another Direction those thoughts will manifest and you automatically take yourself into that timeline.
Seems complicated doesn’t it but it’s really pretty simple you as a human being as a spirit entity put into this body that you have you have the ability 2 Chainz time yourself you have the ability to escape whatever it is you have the ability to be Heard because of this network has been given to us.
If you use this knowledge for the betterment of humanity then we have a chance the change this timeline to the better.
But if we ignore and put our heads in a hole in the ground then well you know how’s it going to end.
i don’t think my reply ‘happened’ earlier.
anyway, in martin armstrong’s model/forecast confusion will reign supreme.
rising stocks during government collapse.
safe haven will not be government debt for this cycle.
rising dollar, rising u.s. stocks, rising gold.
dave wilkinson
Great idea Dude. Buy stocks. LOL