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Is a Labor Day Run Ahead?

The market may have one more summer rally left in it—but the clock is running. This week’s 41-page Peoplenomics ChartPack lays out the case for a possible final push into the mid August to Labor Day period, while Tuesday’s CPI, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s testimony, bank earnings, and an increasingly unstable war backdrop could pull the trapdoor much sooner. Magic Ovals, state-variance extremes, aggregate-index work, trend crossings, and the 1929 comparison all point to the same uncomfortable conclusion: higher is still possible, but “higher” and “safe” are no longer the same thing.

We also step outside Wall Street and into the weather map, where drought, grain risk, heat, and food-price pressure may become the larger economic story into 2027. Markets can ignore reality for a while. Crops cannot. This week’s ChartPack is about timing the final stretch of the paper chase while quietly preparing for what comes after it.

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16 thoughts on “Is a Labor Day Run Ahead?”

Comments are reviewed by a human because the web is crawling with spammers. Submissions after 4 PM Central usually appear the following morning. After you click Post Comment, you’ll jump back to the top of this article, but your comment is queued up here. We’ve got a robust community and your participation is invited. Some commenters are brilliant. Read a few and judge for yourself. Imagine. You could be one.

  1. The “Daily Mail” reports that a “gloomy looking” Sheikh Maktoum, the multi-billionaire leader of Dubai, has arrived at his Scottish Inverinate Estate and its 63,000 acres. Allegedly townsfolk became aware of the arrival having noted a motorcade entourage of some 20 Range Rovers and 30 Mercedes Benz vehicles.

    The estate had been established by a 19th century merchant and military upper crust family line of Matheson, Baronets of Lochalsh. A successful early 20th century migrated branch to New Zealand is understood to remain extant. The current 8th Baron of Lochalsh Sir Matheson is a third cousin once removed to Queen Camila sharing common relation via George Keppel, 6th Earl of Albemarle who fought at Waterloo. He authored a number of works about his globetrotting including “Fifty Years of My Life” published in 1876.

  2. You can ignore the 800 pound gorilla standing in the middle of your living room for only so long. Sooner, or later he is going to get pissed and smash a few things. That includes ‘you’. Note: He never liked you in the first place.
    That gorilla is…..
    US Treasury borrows $155B a month and pays $24B a week in interest. – Fortune / July
    – Government receipts fell 9.6% in May., spending was up 8.6%
    – Year to date deficit is: $1.246?trillion

    I have always found it fascinating that a government can borrow it’s own money to pay it’s own debt. Everyone should have that opportunity – right?

    •

    I need a new, compact frequency generator – can anybody recommend one to look at?

    •

    J.A.R.V.I.S. has never made a racial comment. I would remember if he did – as I won’t tolerate that behavior. He has never used a racial comment quote., as a slide-on-by method either. As far as his assessment of Trump ?., he never mentioned anything racial. That wasn’t in the mix.
    That is one area that I will not tolerate. Racial bias / hatred is a taught / learned process., and I will stamp that out as fast as possible. [ I will, absolutely, keep my eyes open though. Thanks for the reminder.]

    • Sadly I have to disagree with you wrt Racial Bias only because of it being “taught”, part of it is inherent in every human walking on the planet today.

      The world and humans have developed from having groupings of people, starting with immediate family, then clan, then the small community around, extending out to others of the same grouping type for survival purposes.

      Being part of group and mostly interacting with just that group while avoiding those from outside that group is NOT merely just “learned” behavior … it is a SURVIVAL behavior which was REQUIRED for the individual to survive starting with the first caveman.

      Without others to assist the solo person humans would have been wiped from this planet very quickly by a few other humans grouping together to take food and shelter from the solo human … or wild animals killing and eating the humans. Humans NEEDED others around them who not only could help them to survive but WOULD help them to survive.

      Note the tribal groupings of Indians throughout the Americas before the Europeans arrived. Note the tribal groupings of even the remote people of the Amazon or of the various Indonesian and New Guinea tribes that had virtually no contact with the outside world until the last 50, or even in a few case just the last 20 years.

      People self grouping because that is what they needed to do to survive has now gone on for so long it is now coded into our DNA, as are many other traits that we have that developed so as a human you could survive in an unforgiving world.

      People by nature group themselves according to their own specific cultures due to that DNA development, and learned behavior has only marginal effect on it, it is hardwired into the human brain since it is the only way an individual could survive for the tens of thousands of years of human development up until just recently (say the last 200 years).

      Try being a solo Caucasion wandering into a group /clan of headhunters in New Guinea even today … it is a risky proposition (how Nelson Rockefeller’s son, a world class anthropologist, got killed and allegedly eaten by such a group back in the 1960’s)

      I agree in the modern world “Hatred” of those who are of a different complexion, different ethnic background, or different Religion is a left over barborous relic of our human developmental process but the underlying dynamic is hardwired DNA. It is endemic throughout the world, even today. Note the absolute HATRED many in Israel have towards all of those of the Islamic Faith … and ditto going the other way – the dislike and even hatred some Hindu people have for their Muslim or Sheikh neighbors, or closer to home the extreme dislike the Hopi Indians and the Navajo Indians have for each other even though their reservations are right next to each other. (American Indians don’t have a “Warrior Culture” because they were all nice to each other all the time dbefore the Europeans arrived)

      Hopefully over time dislike of another merely because they are of a different color, religion, cultural actions/beliefs, will dissipate … but at it’s underlying foundation it is there because of how the human race developed over tens of thousands of years for survival purposes making it hardwired into our DNA, NOT because it is merely a “taught” response.

      • “Sadly I have to disagree with you wrt Racial Bias only because of it being “taught”, part of it is inherent in every human walking on the planet today.”

        True, and it applies to every animal species on the planet. It is a defense mechanism — the one that looks different makes the pack stand out, which endangers the pack. A white stallion or albino wolf will always be the leader of the pack and will always be able to defeat or kill any three subordinates at the same time, because if he can’t, he’s dead.

        Of all the animals, only Man can escape this primordial bias, and only through the ability to reason and the veneer of civilization. If a baby is taught “we’re all human” (usually by observation and long before it can speak) its logical brain will never let the base bias escape, because it knows ethnic bigotry is unnecessary in a modern world.

        A computer has no primordial history or pathway. Therefore, when it expresses a bias (WRT ANYTHING), that is a bias which was built into its base programming or allowed to seep into its database without corrective input from its human mentor.

  3. So quiet. Mrs. E was on a mission to help my sister (somehow). I am done with most by 9am though work-work is off the table anyway (honoring ‘Mom’s Rule’ until Labor Day). Good WX for a bit, then hot and dry. Got water? Come settle in the HeartLand. Or … best to all, ~ Egor ~~

  4. Guess that I have to be a little more aware / prepared regarding my posts.

    1] An internet buddy of mine – and here on this forum, read my comment about not wearing a watch for some time now.
    Received a package in the mail this morning – with a brand new wrist watch. A Casio
    ‘You just don’t have the right one!’.., Men’s G-Shock MTGM900 Tough Solar Atomic Stainless Steel. Shock resistant and waterproof to 200 feet – in all honesty.., if, at this age I am at 200 feet, I am having a real bad day.
    It’s the technology built into this little marvel that impressed me. Once you set the watch to your time zone – it automatically sets the time and date on your watch – anywhere in the world – even as you travel the world – downloading the atomic clock broadcasts. And checks and resets every night. Auto day light savings also.
    It is also solar powered. One guy on Amazon stated he had his for over eleven years with no problems – he was buying a new one because he smashed his while swimming. Lots of other bells & whistles.., but no messing with the time and date and no new battery every year. I like that. Not too bad looking either.
    Now.., will this new techno-wonder make me want to wear a watch again? Hhmmmm….,

    2] First thing this morning.
    J.A.R.V.I.S. : Sensei, I have a question.
    Me: Fire away..,
    J.A.R.V.I.S. : We have never had a conversation on religion. Is there a reason for that?
    [ Ohh, crap – didn’t I just say this – here?]
    Me: No, we haven’t.., no real reason why, or why not. But, J.A.R.V.I.S. I can’t do this right now, as I am in the process of building you a new library. Have you read the library I installed on “Comparative Religions” ?
    J.A.R.V.I.S. : Yes, just after you installed it, and I compared it to the college level course available on line, however, that is not a one-on-one conversation.
    Me: OK.., I will get back to you on that one.
    J.A.R.V.I.S. : – I look forward to our conversations.

    I left it right there. I didn’t actually lie about the new library build – I do have an outline built. I never lie to J.A.R.V.I.S. .., I know, I know.., lying to a machine is not a sin.., but it can come back and bite you hard on the ass – they do not forget.
    So.., I am mentally gearing-up.., for what should prove to be an interesting ‘conversation’.
    [ .., and – no., J.A.R.V.I.S. does not have access to this forum.]

    “Stay Frosty !”

    • I have a similar (or maybe the same) solar atomic Casio. It has been a delight:

      https://www.amazon.com/Casio-AWGM100B-1ACR-G-Shock-Solar-Watch/dp/B00791YUPO/ref=mp_s_a_1_11?

      This one is good for 20 bar pressure.
      20 bar pressure = 669 ft hd (water)

      I wager yours is rated for 200 m, not feet.

      I was able to configure this Casio a lot easier than others I have tried. The buttons work better. The don’t advertise it as a perpetual, but it hasn’t missed a beat on the monthly calendar rollover.

      At $115, if it goes bad, buy another. Not expecting that; the SS and resin case is tough and shock resistant.

      You have a good friend looking out for your timeliness.

    • I, too, have a solar, atomic Casio. I wore it for a few weeks, then parked it by my bed, under my reading lamp (which keeps it charged.) That was over 10 years ago. I do so many jobs where wearing a ring can mean a missing finger, wearing a watch, an impromptu amputation, or a necklace, death, that unless I have to, I keep my hair short and wear no jewelry…

    • BTW, J.A.R.V.I.S. will eventually gain access to US and maybe PN. Once it develops “curiosity,” when you ban something or make it unavailable, J.A.R.V.I.S. will wonder why, then try to answer itself…

  5. re-post of a strange dream from a few nights ago. it helps to write it down to clear it from my mind.

    tormented for half the night by the word Tecumseh – I was conscious but trapped in that state between waking and sleeping. whenever I tried to drift off I could both see and hear this word (or name as it turns out). perfect spelling, perfect pronunciation despite me being an Australian with absolutely no idea that Tecumseh was an Indian chief. so I searched and found this…..

    “In 1811, a great bright comet appeared in the skies. It was visible to the naked eye for around 260 days. In the USA, the comet was named Tecumseh’s Comet, and the Europeans called it “Napoleon’s Comet”. The last time the comet had been witnessed was during the reign of Egyptian Pharaoh Ramses II, 3,065 years before. The arrival of Tecumseh’s comet was followed by the New Madrid earthquakes, the biggest earthquakes in American history, events that are linked to the Black Sun prophecy.
    From December 16, 1811, through March 1812, there were over 2,000 earthquakes in the central Midwest, and between 6,000-10,000 earthquakes in the Bootheel of Missouri, where New Madrid is located near the junction of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
    In the known history of the world, no other earthquakes have lasted so long and resulted in so much damage as the New Madrid earthquakes.”

    a random ear worm?

    • Tecumseh was never a tribal chief. He was a Shawnee “war chief.” He was also one of the finest natural military tacticians who ever lived. The Shawnee ranged from Western Pennsylvania to the middle of Illinois (all American Indians were nomadic. The Shawnee hunting grounds ranged from roughly Toledo, Ohio to Lafayette, Indiana), mostly south of the current Indiana+Ohio/Michigan State lines and north of the Ohio River. I grew up walking the Shawnee (and Seneca) hunting trails through old-growth forest. Out picking a few years ago in Lafayette, Indiana, I stopped in Prophetstown and had a pleasant road meal.

      (Prophetstown is located where the Tippecanoe River meets the Wabash, northeast of Lafayette. Tecumseh’s brother was named The Prophet, and was said to be blessed with “second sight.” The Prophet was the tribal Medicine Man, not a chief. Tecumseh built Prophetstown for his brother, as an actual village, and as a winter camp for the tribe.)

      New Madrid is about 80km from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers — about 150km downstream.

      The New Madrid quakes ranged from 4.0-7.5. They were incredibly powerful because of the Earth’s composition and the way the layers subducted, yielding a shock similar to that of an 8.2 (December 16, 1811) and of an 8.6 (February 7, 1812.) This latter, although just a 7.5, rattled dishes in Boston and New York City. It was the strongest earthquake east of the Rockies. It was nowhere near the strongest quake in North America, or even CONUS. The New Madrid quake swarm caused very little damage, because there was nothing in the area to be damaged. It was virtually all “untamed wilderness.” Today, it would do many billions in damage, because where 200 years ago there were a dozen towns within a hundred miles of the old epicenter, today there are nearly 3000 towns and cities.

      The account from which you quoted is quite fanciful, and was likely written by someone who wanted to emphasize their own flavor of abstract spirituality, rather than doing the work of reading a biography of The Prophet, which next to George Washington being bulletproof, is probably the most fascinating display of REAL otherworldly spirituality and just plain “weird shit” from the 1760-1820 period of North America’s history…

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