I Told You This Would Happen

Although the stock market will pull back at the open today, the intriguing topic of the weekend Peoplenomics report is whether we will hit Price or Time in our apparent Replay of 1929:

There is a black X (if your eyes are good) which is our first crossing of the present trend with the 1929 data. The red X is the second crossing.

The potential upside for the Dow? More on that this weekend for subscribers, but I wanted you to see the chart. One of many we do twice weekly.

While many economists would no doubt disagree, we are nevertheless seeing money come out of the bond market to chase stocks higher.

I like to think of this as Bond Market Disintermediation Due to Rates.

Although it would be very much like that “splotchy noise” just before the shit hits the fan.

Housing Starts

Our “press release du jour” is just out:

Building Permits

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,285,000.  This is 4.6 percent (±2.0 percent) above the revised December rate of 1,228,000 and is 8.2 percent (±1.6 percent) above the January 2016 rate of 1,188,000.  Single-family authorizations in January were at a rate of 808,000; this is 2.7 percent (±1.9 percent) below the revised December figure of 830,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 446,000 in January.

Housing Starts

Privately-owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000.  This is 2.6 percent (±11.0 percent)* below the revised December estimate of 1,279,000, but is 10.5 percent (±15.3 percent)* above the January 2016 rate of 1,128,000.  Single-family housing starts in January were at a rate of 823,000; this is 1.9 percent (±10.8 percent)* above the revised December figure of 808,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 421,000. 

Housing Completions

Privately-owned housing completions in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,047,000.  This is 5.6 percent (±8.0 percent)* below the revised December estimate of 1,109,000 and is 0.9 percent (±15.0 percent)* below the January 2016 rate of 1,056,000.  Single-family housing completions in January were at a rate of 800,000; this is 4.3 percent (±7.5 percent)* above the revised December rate of 767,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 244,000.

We note, however, that until the Housing market passes the 2006-2007 levels that this is still just an Elliott Wave B or 2 bounce from the 2009 decline lows.

Narrowing My Restaurant Choices

Know what’s going on today?  A gander at the USA Today headline warms me to the point: “Businesses across US close for ‘Day Without Immigrants’.”

I have to figure that restaurants and other businesses that close today must not need my money on other days as well.

I hate it when things like food and what-not get politicized.

Along the Same Lines

We also note that the “Southern Poverty Law Center says American hate groups are on the rise.”

I’m not sure whether they have ever published a definition of what a “hate group” is, however.

Someone who disagrees with them, perhaps?

Trump Bashing Award

We have to hand it to Gizmodo for this one:

Trump’s Bullshit Executive Orders Become Even More Bullshit on White House Website.”

Meantime, the headline ab out “A professor called Trump’s win ‘an act of terrorism.’ The student who filmed her got suspended.” has us wondering if liberal teachers are going along with the idea of institutionalizing Trump-Bashing.

We sensed signs of that in Berkeley, after all.

Oroville De Dammed

As crews race to repair things, a “super soaker” is on the way.

I can’t say for sure, but will any of this disrupt vegetable growing win the valleys six months out?  We’ll have to wait and see…


A Bit More Vitamin D Might Help Prevent Colds And Flu.”

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George Ure
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24 thoughts on “I Told You This Would Happen”

  1. It would be nice if people could tell the difference between the two subsets of “immigration”, “legal immigration” and “illegal immigration”… Almost everyone is good with “legal immigration”, a good portion of people understand that sometimes we have to to limit “legal immigration”, and even more people understand that “illegal immigration” is bad…

    • Tell this to the MSM, particularly the MSM in major US cities where it always annoyed me, because it’s not about immigration, but ILLIGAL immigration.

      • And taking the position that Constitutional rights – like voting – apply to everyone other than legal CITIZENS. It’s beginning to look like there were a couple of million illegals that voted this last election, registered in multiple states. Not saying Republicans don’t do it but democrats have a virtual corner on the voter fraud market.

  2. lame, mainstream vitamin story. YES, vitamin D helps, especially us poor souls living in the colder portions of the country. Since beginning high dose vitamin D therapy 5,000 units in summer 10,000 units in winter, I stopped getting either winter colds, flu OR winter/low light depression. Ten thousand units would be picked up NATURALLY in about 15 minutes outside in nice weather, but there isn’t likely to be any nice weather for a long time if you live up north. For what it’s worth, vitamin D is worth it’s weight in gold as far as well being in winter in concerned. Just one gals experience, abra

    • Works for me, too. And if you feel something bad coming on, high dose Vitamin C will nip it in the bud. I used to catch something at least one a year, but it’s been 4 years and counting. Also, I’ve gone organic and cut way back on the processed GMO food-like products.

  3. I had hoped our ‘commander in chief’ had had a more substantial plan to ‘drain the swamp’ before he got elected. Turns out we’ve just elected another golf-playing politician. Disappointed citizen, me. Carry on as usual, because in 50 years from now it will not matter, either way.

  4. We are watching from up here in Canada how the left is responding. I guess the most intolerant people turn out to be the least tolerant. The very thing they claimed of the right. So hypocritical. Now that their agenda is no longer being followed, their true nature has come to light and these lambs are showing themselves to be wolves. Very scary.

  5. George,

    Does the National Debt no longer matter? Which is ok. Am just trying to find out where you stand. Where our country stands.

    Reagan tripled the national debt and we got stimulus. And created jobs. You like that. Trump wants to add $11 trillion to the National Debt, and we’ll get stimulus. And you recently criticized, to put it mildly, deficit hawks like Rand Paul.

    So, does the National Debt not matter any more? Even if it brings higher interest rates? Even as China et al are selling off our debt?

    So are we off this austerity kick? Off this crash diet and back to eating again?

    BTW, and sorry to be a party pooper, but the second sentence of the Wikipedia page for the SPLC provides its specific definition of a hate group, with footnotes. And you were trying so hard to be so cutesy. Instead of just admitting factually that Trump flogged our darker side to get elected, and now his success encourages emulation. I know George. A complete surprise to all of us.

    Best, Mike.

  6. Why the unlimited Verizon that has been announced will not be a good deal, because it’s already slow enough and now since they have got all these people that want unlimited service that are signing up out here in a rule area it is so slow it’s even hard to pull up urban survival let alone watch YouTube

  7. If you’re not sure which service works in your area you could always go to each one of the places and ask for a trial phone that they can lend you for the day just to try it out and if it doesn’t work you don’t buy one and if it does then you can with no obligation on the prepaid deals

  8. I told George and other friends I would give the Trumpster 90 days and then decide if we citizens elected someone useful or just another guy from the .01%. While Hillary was enough for me to happily pull ANY OTHER LEVER in the voting booth, there wasn’t a lot of choice behind the curtains. I am watching what is going on, and it smells a lot like brawling critters in the swamp stirring up sour, stinky mud rather than working.

    My gut tells me that the only way the swamp gets drained is when the money goes bad and the alligators and snapping turtles begin to eat each other. This appears to already be starting amongst the Democrats, who have yet to fathom why they lost this election.

    I think we will have to wait for: a) a giant black swan from deep left field, b) a giant meteor (who garnered many write-in votes btw) or c) the dollar to take the pounding waiting in the wings as the debt service becomes unpayable.

    Of course, these are all valid reasons for people to HAVE A PLAN, even if they cannot buy a clue. It’s all been laid out here for the last few weeks, George-style. Everyone’s style is different, but he put his out there for plagiaristic purposes – so copy away.

    The only thing I might add is this – what if money is totally useless? Do you have anything to trade besides sexual favors? I can’t give mine away, but….

    • I’m going to give the TRUMPSTER EIGHT YEARS! Same as obummer; surely Trumpster can’t f–k it up as bad as obummer. ALL the problems we face as a nation right now fall squarely on obummer’s head. But I notice none of you liberalista’s ever give him credit for his ‘acting school’ behavior(yeah, he took acting lessons to prepare to be the president) nor all the EO’s he signed, nor the wars he took us into (illegally, I might add), nor the massive illegal immigration issue we have now to deal with and the refugee resettlement plan which is NOT done for altruistic purposes, but I know I am speaking to deaf and dumb people who can’t read lips and don’t know sign language because they are willingly ignorant and ignore all information meant to educate them or hey let’s call it enlightenment.

      I called a few restaurants, asked them if they were closing, I told them they would never see our money again. WHEN I get ready to stop paying taxes – which I might add pay 100% for all illegals, their babies, their education, their healthcare, their housing, their jobs, their food, their clothing and their vacations back home, then we will see who is going to shut this country down. It won’t be the illegals, it will be the CITIZENS.

  9. Folks, please use CASH for most transactions before it’s too late to do so. Your freedom is at stake!!!!

  10. George, I’ve always admired and appreciated your dedication to this blog and I can forgive a certain amount of occasional laziness. But please stop posting useless drivel like the Gizmodo article and cover actual important information. Like, for example, this: http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2017/02/14/a-win-for-the-deep-state/
    and this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZEks0N66vM
    There’s plenty of fake news liberal media out there, and if you’re just going to advertise more of it I’m going to have to stop reading..
    Here’s another good one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0DAb8JgXpk

  11. Jon – I agree with your observations. In fact, after I read the transcript of Trump’s CIA speech I thought the man was unbalanced and unfit for service.

    However, after speaking with others I’ve learned that lots of people have no issue with the way Trump interacts or pontificates.

    Someone like you or I is 100% convinced that Trump’s behavior shows mental illness, instability or worse. We are convinced, sure and positive. Lot’s of people praised his CIA speech and yesterday’s press conference. It’s why they elected him and he is acting exactly as they were hoping.

    The two views/opinions could not be more diametrically opposed to one another. It actually is a massive divide that cannot be overcome. No one is going to be able to change anyone’s mind. You either think Trump is nuts or you approve of his behavior.

    • We had a choice between business as usual and a crazy man shaking up the business as usual crowd. The business as usual crowd have driven a large percentage of the voting public to this decision. The lesson here is, listen to the voters, not the crazy man. Assist the crazy man to accomplish what the voters put him in office to do. Not tear him down at every opportunity.

  12. One thing that really struck me with the Trump conference yesterday was when he said he wants to help the US first and the world second. I believe that he was 100% sincere when he said this. Sadly, for many, many reasons I don’t think it’s going to work out that way objectively in the end.

  13. He might be golfing but he has got more things done he said he would do then the golfer in Cheif Obama did in 8 years

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