How to Build a CMFTPM

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This morning we do a rethink on one of those “soft” relationships in economics:  Between the performance of the stock market and the operation of commodity markets.

All this because?  We like to develop trading-support models.  Intuitively, if you have a modeling system like our “Golem” spreadsheet (and understand it is offset from actual results by virtual of probability quadrature) along with our Elliott Wave calculating  BrainAmp spreadsheet, you MAY have a different (odds-changing) view than if you were just trading singular impulsive inputs.  Like a “headline number.”

Is there another tool to be found in commodity pricing?  Today the theory discussion and one of these days we may do the harder work of coding it.
After headlines, of course. 

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6 thoughts on “How to Build a CMFTPM”

  1. 1.5 Cups of coffee in the AM ? That’s not enough to get my lil jack russell terrier going,any faster than normal, let alone thinking clearly.
    Commodity trading model would be tres cool. Dr Copper is a key indicator in relation to barrel of Oil for this angry Patriot.

    George really miss your lucid dreaming adventures, and would suggest that might be an area of further research for trading ideas/edges. My 24yr old son uses lucid dreaming for practicing Interviews with great success.
    I mention this because a recent study,http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0201246, indicates that waking at night after 4.5 hours sleep and practicing MILD technique and taking 8mg dose of alzhiemers drug Galantamine. The results were a whopping 40% increase in lucid dreams! Oh yeah, almost forgot..Lite Coin – BTFD!

  2. On the brain scan article and their conclusions about brain aging….if I’m reading it correctly they are looking at cerebral blood flows. What they didn’t address was the impact of diet and exercise. Difficult to believe that doesn’t have an influence.

  3. I want to comment on a few things. Yesterday, Trump had a lot of flowery things to say about Paul Manafort. This is somewhat unprecedented in that a jury found his ex-campaign chairman guilty on 8 counts. In any normal scenario…with any other President or politician…not accepting a Jury’s verdict would compromise our own judicial system and make that person seem like he or she is above the law.

    So why is Trump saying Manafort is a good guy and is being treated unfairly, when he obviously broke the law? This is a no-win situation for Trump. If he respects the jury’s decision and accepts the verdict, he is in danger of alienating Manafort and possibly causing Manafort to give up a bit more information than he has given up to this point. Paul Manafort holds all the cards here. Trump has to be nice.

    Here is the problem. Do we want a President that is compromised in this way? Nobody should have the upper hand on the leader of the free world. Is this also why Trump is so reluctant to come to terms and condemn Putin? He said nice things about Flynn too. What does Flynn know?

    I get the argument that they went looking for Russians and found something else..Same thing happened to Bill Clinton…when the sexual harassment charges didn’t stick. It doesn’t seem fair…but sometimes you need the pressure of one charge to unearth others.

    Bottom line…the investigation into Russian collusion is not over. There is the matter of the 30 hours that McGahn had with Mueller. McGahn recently said that he hates Rudy Giuliani “with the intensity of 1000 burning suns”. That doesn’t surprise me…Listening to Rudy is like listening to Trumps stream of consciousness nonsense. But that most likely means that there is a lot of double talk going on. McGahn, who at 50 years of age, has another 15-20 years of attorney work ahead of him and doesn’t want his career shortened by this mess. He wants EVERYTHING out on the table. Both Rudy and Trump have contradicted themselves dozens of times via interviews and tweets. It is a huge problem that needs clarification.

    There is also the matter of the Cohen and Omarosa tapes. These are all recent acquisitions and Mueller is deftly putting together all of this new evidence and given his very formidable reputation with both sides of the aisle, wants to make sure he has his ducks in a row before he takes the next step. So far…Mueller is batting a .1000. Manafort and Cohen guilty verdicts and pleas were big slam dunks for him.

    Based on Trumps obsessiveness about the Witch Hunt, it would seem to the average lay person that Trumps indiscretions are starting to close in around him. We will see.

  4. Hi George,
    That’s a 50,000 word book, getting from the old economy to the new economy–
    If we are all very, very lucky, our grandchildren will be living in a world that operates something like Europe in the 1600’s, but hopefully with some working antibiotics.
    A couple of ideas, if you want to take a whack at it–
    –The way that everything works in our society has been turned upside-down and backwards by plentiful energy from oil. Before oil, the global economic growth rate was something like 1 to 2% a year, so figure on going back to that. Rates above that are based on oil, one way or another.
    –“Trade” is based on having something extra, and your neighbor having something else extra. If those are the conditions of your life, you can have trade, and money makes sense. Remember that, even to this day, someone occasionally finds a stash of gold coins in a wall, or in the ground, dating from the Dark Ages usually. Why didn’t the owners of these coins spend them? No trade-able goods, and no law and order. If you are on your last cow, and have only enough parsnips to -maybe- get you through the Winter, you will not trade them for gold, no matter how much gold.
    –Localization of the economy. Who will be the first to open a loom in East Texas, after the shipping costs drive T-shirts from Bangladesh to $150.00 each?
    –You could take each of your 7 essential areas of life (food, water, shelter, etc), imagine how they will be in the future, and then pick several pathways that get us from here to there.
    –My head already hurts, thinking about it…

  5. Dear Mr. Ure,

    The Secret Service has issued a “wanted poster” of allegedly wayward protesters onto a social media platform.

    https://t.co/FTw49elnhy

    There would appear to be a marketing opportunity for facial recognition software or perhaps this exercise polls the herd?

    Speaking of polling, I think you had mentioned that Mr. Trump is running for the WH in 2020. However, I had not previously connected the dots of the allegedly-engaged polster; or “can a leopard change its spots”?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_Propria

    I’d love to visit Alaska someday far from the eye of the storm. Start the bubble machine! United States vs…a gentleman plays the anti-fascist song, “Accordeon”?

    https://youtu.be/VxfewlcTC3g

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