Housing Went…UP???

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Wow – but remember, this is FEBRUARY data so virtually NO IMPACT of the CV-19 pandemic showing here:

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.2% annual gain in February, up from 3.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.9%, up from 2.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.5% year-over-year gain, up from 3.1% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle, Tampa and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Phoenix led the way with a 7.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.0% increase, and Tampa and Charlotte with 5.2% increases. Seventeen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending February 2020 versus the year ending January 2020.  

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index and the 10-City Composite both posted a 0.4% month-over-month increase, while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.5% increase before seasonal adjustment in February. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, while the 10-City and 20 City Composites both posted 0.4% increases. In February, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS
“The stable growth pattern established in the last half of 2019 continued into February,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.2% in February 2020, and the 10- and 20-City Composites also advanced (by 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively). Results for the month were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite; 17 of the 20 cities saw accelerating prices. The National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a faster rate in February than they had in January.
“At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the ninth consecutive month, with a gain of 7.5% for February. Home prices in Seattle rose by 6.0%, with Tampa and Charlotte prices both gaining 5.2%. Prices were particularly strong in the West and Southeast, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast.
“Importantly, today’s report covers real estate transactions closed during the month of February, and shows no signs of any adverse effect from the governmental suppression of economic activity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As much of the U.S. economy was shuttered in March, next month’s data may begin to reflect the impact of these policies on the housing market.”

In terms of prices over the long-term?

Do try to keep in mind that this is price only – the commission spread is not included.  Neither, for that matter, is inflation.  So if you take a home from the 2006 era peak of around $183,000 and adjust for inflation alone, it would come out as $237,500 today (assuming 2.3% inflation for 2020 which is stupid low…) and then there’s commissions….

Still, not a bad report.  The rolling pre-opening drug frenzy is +407 after the data.  Light me up?

18 thoughts on “Housing Went…UP???”

  1. Housing was way up here in the Bay Area prior to March 16th. That’s when everything slowed down. The first 10 weeks of the year were on their way to set records in terms of appreciation and buyer activity. Not worried though…It will rebound. The Bay Area and California in general always comes back exponentially more robust after a downturn…we are already approaching rebound mode now…Heck, last week alone, our county had nearly one hundred homes go into pending status…on a average list price of $1.85 million.

    • “homes go into pending status…on a average list price of $1.85 million.”

      I’m confused…the stuff I’ve been reading is news coverage that constantly talks about burned out buildings and tool sheds selling for millions of dollars. Parking spots the cost of a midwest home…
      So…
      What sells for 1.8 in an area where food stamp poverty acceptance is just shy a quarter of million a year..and executives forced to live in cars and cardboard boxes without bathroom facilities available.

  2. I checked my house on Zillow, for what it’s worth, and the suggested price has almost doubled. I’ve made improvements, but nothing near that value. No plans to sell, just curious.

    • Ditto, here on the North Coast, but I’ve been here 26 years come July.
      Slightly better than inflation according to the B(L)S CPI Inflation calculator, but not more than a percent or two.

      • And when you take property taxes, home owners insurance, and maintenance into the equation is it better than putting that money into the stock market or other investments?

  3. Is this due to wealthy people lining up to get into high density urban areas, or is it urban debt slaves taking profits and heading for the suburbs and the cash lifestyle? Maybe both?

    • Good question; in our town, the people leaving are being pushed out due to the increasing exorbitant property taxes which cannot be sustained on a fixed income. They are having to leave the inner core and go to the burbs. The burbs can be 15 or 100 miles away, which is more rural and not in the same tax jurisdiction. Also, the city does not care, they actually want the older generation to leave to make way for the younger generation. They are closing the inner city schools but never drop the school taxes. They are pushing the younger generation into smaller units, with no room for car parking, with no room to raise a family. Dog parks are plentiful. They want the land ‘turned over’, too. They want the land to build fourplexes or larger; they want the younger generation to ‘rent’ their life for life.

  4. My daughter works for a custom home builder in the southeast, located in what was a high growth area before the Corona event. She says their business is UP significantly.

    Due to the bug, there are very few existing home sellers and those few can get what price they want. So people are biting the bullet and buying new.

    Obviously those buyers believe they have jobs going forward.

      • Amen, Joe. You hit the nail on the head. The have nots will eventually start coming in droves to the homes of the haves for dessert.

      • The Haves are dependent on the velocity of money.. print up what you want hide it in your underwear drawer or a vault in the secret location outside the usa..revel in the fact that your nit paying taxes on it.. let the numbers grow.. the govt. Can pass out the numbers to them leave the have not’s suffer.. but.. the have not’s have to keep the velocity moving.. prices go up there is less to spend..
        So chouces have to be made..who makes rent.. family vacation or toilet paper.. stay away..stay healthy or go to a resort mingle let the haves make more precious numbers that they cherish mor ed than nm life and take chances to get sick spend everything you have or will have on medical and die.. or stay home watch netflix and stay healthy.. choices

  6. Housing numbers in deplorables’ area of PA are Strong, like really strong. This has everything to do with #1 STEM School in state being in local school district, I believe..

    Not to mention we just had a Friggin AWESOME FLYOVER!

    Nothing like Seeing/Hearing and Feeling The Best Jet Jockeys in the World Buzzing the greater Philadelphia Metropolitan area.
    – 1st Time I ever saw the Thunder Birds and the Blue Angels Together! Literally brought a tear to my eyes – just another easy day!

  7. Does anyone know how to reach Glynn at his site Age of Desolation. I am receiving an error message when sending an email: ‘permanent error.’ The addy I used is theageofdesolation@hotmail.com. I copied it from his site but can not get through. Any help is appreciated.
    Jim

  9. yep the smart already know and the others wont listen.. and a bit of mark twain that smart American as well .. im committed to full again .. lightened of old yella .. but ready for a big game against these evel liars and conmen .. aka CNBC and doomberg and everything or every liar around them .. full scale robotic evil.. short the guts out of it

  10. And krogers food stores and production units were bought by Buffett just before corona covid19 appearance setting sights to ” penny” price increases????

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