Housing Rolls Along

Just out:

NEW YORK, MARCH 25, 2025: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the January 2025 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 4.1% annual gain in January 2025, a slight increase from the previous reading in December 2024.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.1% annual return for January, up from a 4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.3%, up from a 5.2% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, up from a 4.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% increase in January, followed by Chicago and Boston with annual increases of 7.5% and 6.6%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 1.5%.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National and 20-City Composite Indices presented slight upward trends in January, with both posting 0.1% increases. The 10-City Composite posted a monthly return of 0.2%.
After seasonal adjustment, the 20-City and 10-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month
increases of 0.5%. The U.S National posted a month-over-month increase of 0.6%

Which means what for the end of the world, exactly?

Hmm…doesn’t look like that will be along today, anyway:

And, would you know it?

Stock futures turned up and the world’s end has been postponed.

At least until after lunch.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

18 thoughts on “Housing Rolls Along”

  1. Our nails are getting rusty, our insulation is defluffing.

    Housing has to go up due to inflation and not because of the great value.

      • All the Romex is kept under lock and key at the Depot these days. Finished material prices are just so high.
        I get discouraged when I start pricing out project materials. A 25′ roll of solid #14 AWG conductor set me back $15.00.

        Do you have any recommendations for a budget volt-ohm meter that works well? I bought a Klein on sale from the Zon, and it wasn’t a bargain. The little shirt pocket Commercial Electric VOM I got from the Depot appears to be from the same manufacturer, but works better, but has very limited range of measurements. Both have ETL/Intertek approval labels.

        • Senior VoltOhmyst?

          I have never met an autoranging DMM that I liked. Honestly, the only DMMs I DO like are B-Ks, and lab-grade Fluke and Tektronics meters. I use a $25 Elenco analog VOM 90% of the time. Unless you need DCV to two significant digits past a decimal point, the analog meter is usually good enough.

      • The other day @ $WMT I noticed the new stock Ocean Spray Ruby Red – pairs well with Ciroc for a sweet, desert style profile – bottle is 60 fl oz instead of the old 64 fl oz but the price remains the same.

        “Ocean Spray® 100% Ruby Red Grapefruit Juice, 100% Juice, 60 fl oz Bottle”

  2. We be sprung, G !

    As the little yellow Crocuses lining my front walkway up to house are beaming Yellow vibes to all who walk up to casa de BCN, have a listen-https://youtu.be/TfBlJ00Df-I?si=5YbBSRH8kEZfJ-sO
    No picking the Stamens – as they be worth more tahn Gold, Cocaine..yeah them Yellow (Saffron) Crocuses..ya know for making Paella..YUM. Got clumps of multi colored Crocuses popping all over, Tulips have sent up first leaves and of course the Garlic is kicking out the jams in the garden this morning.- thx reader Vic (U inspired Moi)

    Rolling along ? nein, nein, nein – We bee talking lickety split like, quicks like..now I know why Wisconians call their washing machines’ Speed Queen.

    Whole tub filled Water pronto quickly – THE WHOLE FRIGGING TUB! no not High Efficiency washing a full load with 1 single Cup of Water – NERP! Filled to the top = amazing.
    Machine simply Rocks steady. BOOM ! Wash is done. No thunks, bumps or other clickityclacking bullschit locking mechanisms.
    Agitates like a Jack Russel Terrier – it dont stop.

    How FUCKED UP is our modern American lifestyle – I had to Pay TRIPLE the cost of a Average Washing Machine JUST to get one that did the SIMPLE BASIC schit -3 knobs for Water Temp, Water Level, Options. On top of all that – new machine is at least 1/3 Smaller than all the HE models.

    WTF, Over?

    *next Asshole tries to tell/sell me anything High Efficiency is getting my Foot implanted in their Keister as EFFICIENTLY as is Humanly possible.

    F YOU BRANDON and the horses YOU rode in on..AzzHOLES.

  3. Housing. Ho hum. Dad (RIP) always said they aren’t making any more of it. That re: select real estate. He did well but worked it as a side hustle thing. Being a good landlord is rough sledding. Somethings always breaking. But, tenants paid the freight while debt went down and value went up. I helped sell a lot of it. What’s left can go to E2 who, if smart, will hand off to E3. Speaking of, my punch list is of Mrs. E’s making. The kids and Grandling are visiting soon and … Grandma has plans. Lots of plans.

    Extra Credit Reading. This is an excellent (long form) article. If nothing else, ponder at least the opener, a quick rhyme with Bob Farrell’s 10 Investment Rules:

    Markets tend to return to the mean over time.

    Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.

    There are no new eras; excesses are never permanent.

    Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.

    The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.

    Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.

    Markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.

    Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.

    When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.

    Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.

    Granted, these are all rather subjective general “rules”. In hindsight one can see them working, however, when you are in the “here and now” it is always somewhat more challenging.

    When you identify a condition of “excess,” there is nothing to say that these excesses will end shortly thereafter. Excesses (new highs or lows) or a topping/bottoming process can go on for a lot longer than you could ever rationally comprehend… as you will see in the charts below. But eventually, these excesses do come to an end for reasons you probably didn’t think of at the time. […]

    Source:

    Lessons From Market Cycles, by Chris Macintosh
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investing-extremes-lessons-market-cycles

    A final tease, to encourage reading the rest:

    “… The Magnificent 7 now account for an eye watering 25% of the market cap of the world stock market (MSCI World). …”

    Have a fine day,
    Egor

    • Think “no cutz” boneheads done missed the boat..again.

      On da Boat wit G and kerPOW, a polar bear on a iceboat. Before long the Lake water Flips its scheisse..a warming trend indeed.

      Higher bee the theme..

    • Much like the “Nifty 50” of the 1960’s.

      All good things must come to an end … even National Cash Register which for a while was a Mega Corporation that paid even above Union rates (without being unionized) while employing 20,000.

      They tried to transition and become a computer technology company late … but alas had their legs cut out from under them when clumsy, clunky, and bureaucratic AT&T bought out what remained just as they were on the cusp of comback with cutting edge, ahead of everybody else, computer technology.

      (AT&T with it’s rigid mindset has made a mess of virtually every acquisition they have tried … too many years as a protected Government Monopoly created a corporate culture that was a disaster for any fast changing technology business)

      Life and companies do not remain static. Ol Intel is a modern day example of how companies that were once cutting edge start down the road toward insolvency as they become lethargic and don’t adapt quickly

  4. George,

    From the SPX peak valuation an interpolated 19 February 2025 5/11/11 of 13 day decay fractal series suggest a loss of 10-15 % over the next two trading days. This is an interpolated fractal series within a larger fractal series best observed in the leading STOXX 50 (XX:SX5P). Our former allies are voting with their feet and their money in US debt and equity investment. The weak DJ Transports, (indicative of transoceanic and Mexican-Canadian trade and transport to warehouses and stores)should provide the lead on this devaluation decay.

  5. Creeping Crappification

    The 1000 year toaster concept represents The Search For True Value to me.

    With the coming of the MBAs, came things like just-in-time stocking — where even a small delay or disruption can cause huge problems,
    This happens in Real Life often enough to make just-in-time a stupid, but seemingly smart, strategy. Nike sneakers are NOT worth $200. Ever. The margin has plumped up nicely, however, and the MBAs hold self-congratulatory victory parties. And it’s not MBAs per se, but it’s their style of short-term Greedthink.

    Likewise, off-shoring labor to economies built on slave labor lowers prices a bit, until somebody raises a tariff, or a worker’s revolution happens.

    Until then we get clothes washers trying to run on two cups of water, and we get (as I just did) a handy, small, rechargeable drill with no charger wall wart. (Uses a USB 5-volt supply and cord.) NOT INCLUDED. AND with ultra-shitty “instructions” in Chinglish and seventeen other languages. (In teensy mice type.) (Including at least nine pages of moronic warnings and “safety notices.”)

    This Creeping Crappification is a raging monster, found everywhere, , making everybody’s lives incrementally more hassle-fied.

    ..and it’s probably only gonna get worse.

    • William of the Radio Ranch,

      Following concerns raised by Norway and Germany in 2016, the EU adopted decision 2017/1357 enforced as of July 19, 2017. Certain new provisions supercede those of decision 1025/2012 such that toaster appliances are no longer restricted to specified energy regulations of “The Circular Economy”. One imagines that the potential global warming hazard of burnt toast was cordially filed in the “spilled milk” folder. My understanding from anecdote is that the EU’s toaster exemption was driven in part as an olive branch being extended towards the UK in efforts to undermine the Brexit campaign. Toasted jam butties, Royal Jam Pennies to the upper crust, arguably comprise a traditional staple of the nation.

      That being said, EU washing machines and dryers must still comply with Decision 2019/2023 tracing back to Directive 96/60/EC. A 136 page English language (or 23 other EU languages) document prescribes acceptable amounts of energy and water use along with permissible levels of acoustical noise pollution.

  6. As of this weekend, I have sent 15 large bags (large trash, lawn and leaf or barrel liner) either to Goodwill or the dump for the spring cleaning season. I am figuring that I should have another 5 ready to go this weekend.
    My long range forecaster says the forecast for Texas is summer. Time to take the winter stuff to the garage. I’ve emptied out more than enough storage trunks to handle, and I’ll spare a couple more out this weekend. It will be too wet for outdoor work, and I have the mandatory outdoor stuff done already. March of the seasons.

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