Housing Pops But….

Incomplete data due to CV-19 in Detroit area.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.7% annual gain in April, up from 4.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 3.4%, remaining the same as last month. The 20-City Composite posted a 4.0% year-over-year gain, up from 3.9% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and Minneapolis reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in April. Phoenix led the way with an 8.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 7.3% increase and Minneapolis with a 6.4% increase. Twelve of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2020 versus the year ending March 2020.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index posted a 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.7% and 0.9% respectively before seasonal adjustment in April. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, while the 10City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.3% increases. In April, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 16 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS
“April’s housing price data continue to be remarkably stable,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.7% in April 2020, with comparable growth in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 3.4% and 4.0%, respectively). In all three cases, April’s year-over-year gains were ahead of March’s, continuing a trend of gently accelerating home prices that began last fall. Results in April continued to be broad-based. Prices rose in each of the 19 cities for which we have reported data, and price increases accelerated in 12 cities.

Add three zeros to the right axis in this chart to sense prices:

What doesn’t show up is inflation.  And we really don’t know how to call that one.  Since the Fed has been increasing the M1 Money Supply by nearly 100% annualized.  Which begs the question:  If the money supply is being doubled, does that mean the actual stored value is a home is being halved??

Tough questions, this inflation under MMT poses…

A good report, the market must figure, having come back to ONLY -91 on Dow futures as I click…

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

11 thoughts on “Housing Pops But….”

  1. I am amazed that Minneapolis and Seattle are in the top three of gainers on Property Values at this time.
    Do they have an on fire job market? How when they are blue states on Lock Down?
    When the local authorities do not respect private property, why would anyone sink their money in there?
    URE has some one the ground Intel from at least one of these places, maybe he can explain the drivers.

    • Mainly BAB its the time offset. Remember, the report is for April sales – which means a lot of contracts were inked in March and then some delay to closing.
      Wait until we get May-June data. Oh, and anyone buying property (single fam) inside Seattle doesn’t understand how communists work, very well…

      • Yeah, I saw that after I clicked “Reply”, my bad.
        Still the lock down dates back to Mid-March, at least here is Middle Kentucky where I am working.
        Will be interesting to see the data as time goes on.
        With Boeing on the ropes, lock down, and unrest, should be a
        buyers market, if there are any buyers.

      • April sales DO reflect February and March ratifications. After ratification it takes 30-50 days to close escrow depending on your state. 21 days for California…May date will be weak, but June is frickin on fire. 10-15 offers on every property. July will be even better.

    • While prices are up, what the report doesn’t say is that the activity, the number of sales, is down.

      The reason prices are up is the number of listings are down even further creating a bidding war environment.

      I am a 38 year veteran Realtor in the Puget Sound area and can post actual stats if anyone is interested.

  2. Dam am I pumped today..

    Got a call.. to go view a solar build.. ( they are doing it the way I suggested) the professor is going to stop by and take me there.. I am not sure if its a govt. build or a community build..
    I do know it is a big build.. I am not sure if it is a 60,000 kw or a 600,000 kw system.. they are going micro like i suggested.. I did ask since they have the college kids working on it.. if they are going to do a few towers. I do want to see a few put up before the day I decide to check out of this planet.. to to prove my point.. start at the furthest part and work back to the power plant be the tree…
    I asked if I needed to bring any funds for it.. nope.. the people doing the build are providing everything..
    the last time we did something like this.. was the building of a house out of straw bales.. so for me it is an ultimate trip.. I love to see things I envision in my mind come to fruition..

    • Payments matter for those who are young and have reliable monthly income. For those of us who are retired, paying cash makes the most sense unless we’re in it for a flip. Income happens irregularly and monthly payments are just a chore.

      Houses that won’t qualify for “standard” financing are always the ones to look into. Those that have major faults(fixable), yet are not condemned or have other bureaucratic violations. These are where a lowball cash offer may well get accepted.

      Some people can deal with even the bureaucratic problems. I’d rather leave those deals on the table.

    • mickey d

      Go take a look at the Denver Airport wall art/murals..big huge painting depicting Children from ALL over the WORLD WEARING FACEMASKS – when was it installed/built?

      Its An “In URE face DISGRACE”

      Hail Zeus !..dont think changed name by one letter from ancient greek? naahhhh…just fantasy..

    • Hi Mickey d.. I loved the site..
      What’s missing is the site quotes our modern bible. The bible we see and use today is just a trivial portion of the historical documents. They were laid out to direct people to believe a certain way.
      But I do believe that there is a push to corrupt the thoughts of our youth..
      Here is a decent study on the occult the nazi party and fascism. When reading those sections take a look at what our representatives in the bubble are doing. Especially the rantings of the demoralcraps..

      https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://ecommons.cornell.edu/bitstream/handle/1813/17662/Staudenmaier%252C%2520Peter.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiKi73Gp6rqAhVbZM0KHQyvA2QQFjAHegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1ZkSxjiYlhXwDfbtE4DGea

      And to think I was a Democrat up until the went on the relentless perverse attacks on the present administration.
      Then the obvious actions of the elite and powerful being deliberately hidden and ignored by those sworn to protect and serve..
      It has been predicted for hundreds of years that we will go through the days of evil. I believe we are in them now.

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