Housing Data Softens in November

Just out from Case-Shiller, S&P/CoreLogic:

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.2% annual gain in November, down from 5.3% in the previous month. The 10City Composite annual increase came in at 4.3%, down from 4.7% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 4.7% year-over-year gain, down from 5.0% in the previous month.
Las Vegas, Phoenix and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In November, Las Vegas led the way with a 12.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with an 8.1% increase and Seattle with a 6.3% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2018 versus the year ending October 2018.
The charts on the following page compares year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.1% in November. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported a 0.1% decrease for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase in November. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite both posted 0.3% month-over-month increases. In November, eight of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 15 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
“Home prices are still rising, but more slowly than in recent months,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The pace of price increases are being dampened by declining sales of existing homes and weaker affordability. Sales peaked in November 2017 and drifted down through 2018. Affordability reflects higher prices and increased mortgage rates through much of last year. Following a shift in Fed policy in December, mortgage rates backed off to about 4.45% from 4.95%.

Given the December economics and the government shutdown, we’d not be surprised to see a bit more weakening when year end and early 2019 data start to come in…

 

 

1 thought on “Housing Data Softens in November”

  1. Housing data softened in November and December. Maybe year over year it was worse that 2017 , but you didn’t have the WORLDS WORST President at the helm from 2017-2016. That’s not a CNN talking point…That’s my honest opinion. That’s about as close to fact as I could ever imagine.

    That was the difference. Trade, stock volatility, interest rates, uncertainty with everything Trump did made the 4th quarter a disaster this year. It was my worst 4th quarter since 2009. But in fairness November and December are always bad in Real estate and do not usually portend a future trend.

    But I can assure you that it has rebounded in a big way in January. We are having a record January and other agents are saying it as well. Most of it is the Feds decision to hold off raising rates for a while…Banks have rates as low as 3.75% on 10/1 ARMS…a good loan product that works for those that are getting into starter homes or feel that they will move in the historically average 6-10 years…

    Hiring is back on track as well. New, huge commercial projects have been introduced and there is an upbeat vibe in the air…but that’s The Bay Area…No matter what national catastrophe happens…we just shake it off and do our own thing. I do hear that Austin, Denver, Portland, Seattle, the Irvine area of Orange County and parts, (Scottsdale, Tempe) but not all of Phoenix are experiencing the same growth so far this month.

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