Grim, Grimmer, Grimmest

We did mention “OEB” means October Ends Badly”?  That was the UrbanSurvival headline Monday of this week.

When I wrote that, our (meta) Aggregate Index stood at 36,044.20.  Friday of this week? The close was 35,159.17. Almost a 2-1/2 percent loss.   This doesn’t seem like a lot. Unless you consider that the U.S. economy is going at not too much more than this – and taking 12-months (and crooked money being made up right and left) to do it.

Today we again return to our charts for ideas about what Future might bring.  Yet – due to an interesting set of circumstances, we did NOT short ahead of the Monday open.

Before those festivities, though, we have a few headlines and some thoughts about what one hell of a week could be coming up.

After all, it’s like this guy I know wrote almost a week ago, October Ends Badly.

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George Ure
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49 thoughts on “Grim, Grimmer, Grimmest”

      • I think Clawsy was thinking San Adreas and you listed volcanoes, but let’s not forget the New Madrid fault in Appalachia. That EQ is overdue and falls under the rarely considered/most probable rule.

        • I cannot confirm, but I read somewhere (yeah, online) that pressure release was done in the gulf of Mexico. Somehow, it relieved the New Madrid, but for how– no idea.

    • not if im there it wont. but it will after i leave it. lol

      Is it a coincidence that the word Hamas means “violent thievery” in Hebrew (see Genesis 6:11)

      as it was written, the last days will be like that of Noah.

      but you know, im still up here in the Valley of Enoch, working stuff out. lol

  1. Eisenhower Carrier Group passed Gibraltar (Europa Point) this morning, reportedly at 8:30 AM local time. I previously posted the distances and estimated transit time from there to the Persian Gulf (since that is where the Pentagon has said they are heading)

  2. Gpops – look to the oracle of Ohmaha- if lack understanding of investments..stocks- suggest put Ure moola in a broad index mutual fund with low rates.. something like Vanguard 500 Index/ T Rowe Price is (Spouses’) money mgr…which says something as she spent her pro career in Mgt at VGD Investments. Dollar cost averaging over time. Fidelity/Trowe/Vanguard = best of class.

    Good luck homegamers.!

  3. George,

    Looking at the hourly fractal chart for the SPX starting 1230 PM EST 27 September 2023 with a subfractal (1) base of 32 hours (5/12/10/8), the crash low will likely occur near the end of the trading day of Thursday 2 November 2023 (vice mid-day.) The value of each macroeconomic system asset is measured in the composite value of the system’s total worth with the exception of the hegemonic currency and debt , i.e., the US dollar and US sovereign debt which gain buying power and become more valuable as all other assets undergo deleveraging. Gold and cryptocurrencies may have the greatest % decline over the next 4 trading day equivalents(possible trading halts). Bitcoin in USD. trading 7 days a week, appears to be following a 11/22/17 of 22 day fractal series and a 20/44(xi =16)/33/12 of 24 month fractal series starting January 2015 . Gold is following a 7 June 2023 15/37/33/18 of 22 day decay fractal series and a 29 September 2021 15/37-38/37-38/21 of 22 week decay fractal both ending 2 November 2023.

  4. “parallels to WW 1”

    I think WW3 is throwing the Americans off the continents over there. It’s pretty clear the ME doesn’t want Americans or Jewish folks there. Nobody will listen to the home team.

    Seems the Asians don’t want Americans there. Nobody listens to them either.

    Russians don’t want them.

    Europe was lost. Trump told us 5, 10 years ago ‘France is no longer France’. Indians are running Britain.

    Africa is being built-out by China and the Silk Road.

    The Americans must retreat back to North & South America or be destroyed. Financially for sure. The operating cost for the Ford must be $1,000 a second.

    Dark Ages are coming.

    • Depeche Mode – “Fly On The Windscreen”

      Death is everywhere…
      There are flies on the windscreen for a start
      Reminding us
      We could be torn apart tonight

      Death is everywhere…
      There are lambs for the slaughter waiting to die
      And I can sense
      The hours slipping by tonight

    • “It’s pretty clear the ME doesn’t want Americans or Jewish folks there.”

      I believe that the reason we are hated in most countries is because we are a warring country.. been at war for over two hundred years.. and when we say we are hear to help.. what they see and hear is we are here to steal your raw resources etc. destroy your communities so that some schmuck that is controlling our politicians can gain more stuff…..
      So the citizens of the countries are leery of us and our motives… I am pretty sure that NATO countries could use the leviathan oil and gas deposits.. after the nord stream was destroyed.. it put nato countries in a deep freeze..

      • Looking at the destruction of Nord Stream from here it appears the deed was done to keep Germany in the $ ecosystem. Germany could have fractured into neutrality but now are the captive audience.

        A week or two back the Balticconnector was sabotaged. Keep them in the $.

        Death match – NATO vs BRIC.

        Israel killed the live streams so the 4k OLED monitors were a waste.

      • Who’s going to fight the wars?

        This month, Google searches for “Will I get drafted into war…” hit the highest number since the 2007 Iraq war surge; people are getting worried. If the US is dragged into a multi-front conflict in the Middle East, then a new draft is almost assured. Military recruitment numbers for the past several years have been dismal, with up to 77% of Gen Z not even meeting preliminary physical and mental qualifications as well as not being able to pass criminal background checks. In some cases, the DoD has been forced to build pre-boot facilities called “fat camps” just to get recruits physically ready enough to survive normal boot camp.

        • GOOD!!

          Please draft the politicians’ kids first, and assign each of them to run point on an infantry patrol…

      • “I believe that the reason we are hated in most countries is because we are a warring country”


        The reason we’re hated is because the poorest of us, whilst living in a box, under an overpass, are still wealthier than 93% of the World’s population, and accordingly we are both insufferable and haughty — Exactly like the Brits were, 100 years ago.

        Unlike the Brits, we’ve used our National wealth to bribe most other nations into giving us a degree of influence over their internal (and external) politics. WE call that “foreign aid,” but stop and think: What constitutes a bribe? If you’re honest, you will realize our “foreign aid policy” qualifies…

  5. Ure offline?

    Jorge: rather a lot of time has been spent (or, wasted, TBD) on redundancy. Action, proverbial “pulling trigger” (whether positional -or- getting to-dos done) plays a part in outcome. Just do it (borrowed from T-shoe slogan) or don’t. Definitely _don’t_ obsess on either (done, didn’t done). This is _not_ FA. Life study.

    IMO our mkts are wading ankle deep in the Rubicon. Best to turn around sooner than later. But, these patterns will out in the fullness of time. They always have, always will … it’s why we have cycles / observable patterns. SPX below 4,220 broke important support. It (we, the collective we) may attempt retake but it looks wobbly, or worse.

    From numerous technical perspectives we are in deep Kimchi. Looking around, in USA or abroad, makes our head hurt. Be afraid.

    Sub to svc. with buried “fiber to the curb” 1G bw pipe
    Have web access, power or not (5-6 hr battery backup)
    Can light sys / recharge backup (6 weeks gen fuel *)
    Have cordless and hard wire phone VOIP via fiber
    Have alt cell phone(s) to towers (if they’re lit?)
    Have boxed Lafayette TELSAT 2W radio / whip
    Or, jungle drums? Walkers spread news …

    Note: my Coop carrier is now marketing 5G bw to me, being an early adopter to 1G. Tempting. After cutting cable (I used to write three checks to Comcast >$780 per month) my house is entirely wifi. This being a failure point machts nichts ? given I have endless (stupid amounts) hard cable to plug into wifi tower.

    If my fiber goes dead, and cell towers slump, out comes TELSAT. If ^ happens I will probably shut off private road access 1/8 mile away (trailer chained to trees, private lane) and hunker, eat PB / honey.

    * lights whole house, to be used sparingly, stretch …

    ATL: yesterday I un-launched the last boat and slid her into the pole barn. There is a set of steel “Hs” where our pier used to be but they can chill in place for a time. Murmurating underway. Birds are way confused after the brief return of summer. Indian Summer. South soon? Venison is on the move. Attentive Mom Does try to shed fawns as the Rut gets underway. Bucks? They are exceedingly stupid, intent. Farmers are cutting corn and beans, ringing the register.

    Don’t be a dunce. Not losing _is_ winning.
    Write when you win,

    ps – our soon to be (20) YO tomcat likes the chill

    • My unlimited microwave internet link is $80. Wish something cheaper/better was available, but availability is very good, and I use it to telecommute. Unlimited 4 or 5g cell $29 per phone. A couple of Amazon video optional channels are $15 or $20. The MagicJack for my commercial VOIP line – less than $5. 83 channels off-air – priceless. Satellite radio I negotiated down less than $10. Got more comms than I got time to use.
      Teach ’em to watch the free Pluto channels or something.

      • Bear in-mind guys, the weak link may not lie with you.

        Your cell or sat Internet has to come to Earth somewhere. When it does, it will start flowing through Terrestrial routers and switches, which will only function until any single diesel generator that’s used to back up the electronics, runs dry.

  6. My six year old granddaughter traded our kid friendly walkie talkies to the neighbor’s “cousins” for a pencil with “hair”.Geeze. The 8 brand new batteries alone were worth more than that. We’ll never see that set again.

      • yes He does.

        i worked all night friday from 4pm to 4am. i could be sitting on a hundred million dollars right now, but that doesnt mean i have to do anyrhing about it. just because ya have a big provision, doesnt mean ya have to act right away.

        i prefer to give myself permission to think a while. that always works to my advantage .

        i woke up at noon. and drove to Boise, ID yesterday. about a 4 and and a half hour drive to hear a speaker speak.

        i saw alot of signs last night on my drive. one was painted on the side of a big where housr building from the roof to the ground. one word. WOW!

        i saw a sign that was a bunch of cows standing around a crystal ball and read, I see chikuns in your future.

        and many other signs.

        that song that the end of the world as we know it came on. by rem.

        along with many many refrences in the last few momths to white wedding. not just the billy idol song. lots of terms relating to white wedding.

        the guy speaking who was about 87 years old said one of the most profound th8ngs ive ever heard. he said, you ever heard of the richest man in Atlantis? nope. because he had the same chance as bill gates of surviving the world as we know it now.

        he said you know why thoth survived the fall of atlantis? because you have to surrender to win.

        interesting thought.

        it says the Meek will inherit the earth. meek means surrender. not just money and power and ideas. but degrees ascociated to logos, ethos and pathos

        interesting statements.

        then he said. do you think you have the power to fuck up Gods plan for your life? do you think you could fuck it all up? or do you think anyone else could fuck it all up? do you think that anyone on this planet has the power to trip up Gods divine plan and purpose for you and your life?

        i said no. absolutely not.

        he said im 87 years old. i still can run 5 miles on a treadmil, im up every morning early, i have perfect health. my mental accuity is better than ever. i feel as young as 20 years old most of the time.

        you know why that is? he said i will tell you. because my first thoughts is i hope i get to help someome today. as long as im useful to my fellows, im granted health and strength and a longer life.

        he said ive watched 3 wives die. and it occured to him. as soon as they sat infront of a tv and decided, im going to relax for the remainder of my life, im dome helping other people. they all died shortly after.

        he said the health industry is a trillion dollar industry. take your supliments, take your nap, eat this, drink that. and you know what i discovered is. that is all bull shit. he said what i discovered is if every morning when i wake up, i let God know, im availble for duty. if you take me home today, im good with that too, but if you need me to help someome today. im down to do whatever.

        and for the last 68 years, i have not been sick a single time. i have not had a single health issue. not a single one. i dont take vitimines or any of that shit.

        so you asked a question.

        “The Lord Provides?”

        yes. He does. very much so.

    • Hmm does she think it was a good trade…
      If she thinks it was a good deal.. then it was.. if she gets wise later on and realizes that it wasn’t such a good deal.. then it is a learning lesson..for future deals.. making a trade isn’t about the dollar value but the value to who ever is making the trade..
      take the eighteen hundred gold rush… a cup of water was three ounces of gold.. gold had less value than water.. during the covid shut down it was the same with toilet paper and hand sanitizer..

      • Well, they belonged to me. Hahaha. I won’t argue the trade because I had already decided to buy a sturdier set with a longer range.

        • Lol lol ..yes I get grandkids do the same thing to me. I get something tell them I get it for them to play with and they end up in their play area. they assume that its theirs lol.

  7. George,
    It does appear the Puetz Crash Window was correct, if 10/24 was the start of the crash (4 days before the eclipse 10/28). Assuming we continue down from that point into a crescendo, some believe into early November. Just wanted to share info from a poster in Twitter about the yen carry trade and its potential involvement in the markets currently.

    According to the poster, the yen carry trade has been extremely lucrative, and my guess has been used by banks, institutions and many large investment entities worldwide. Essentially it takes advantage of the accommodative Bank of Japan’s policies to borrow yen at extremely low interest rates, buy dollars, and invest in US stocks and bonds. The Mag 7 seems to be the primary recipient of these massive amounts of liquidity. Consequently, an unwinding of the trade would likely pop that Mag 7 bubble. As that bubble is popped, margin calls on those stocks would accelerate the losses and further unwinding of the yen carry trade. Banks may be involved, as they would likely have been looking for profitable investments to counteract their sinking reserves due to higher interest rates. Bank stocks seem to be telling that story, and a potential “credit event”, as Twitter posters claim is happening.

    Initially it seems the BOJ’s announcement several weeks ago of their willingness to intervene to strengthen the yen if needed, has been the key shift in the safety of the yen carry trade. I don’t really understand the hedging strategies used, but it may have made the carry trade less profitable, and begun a start of the unwinding. The first ones out do fine, but as the unwinding process accelerates, it becomes a fire in a crowded theater situation.

    In short, this unwinding process, driven by increasingly violent positive feedback loops of margin calls, seems like it may be underlying this ongoing crash, climaxing with a crescendo drop.

    Any thoughts?

    • Posted that a day or two ago. Enjoy the crickets. They make great fish bait when the fish are biting, though! Bo’s studies in Time are interesting.

      Here’s another guy that is the latest interviewee on Liberty and Finance – Fed Reversal Won’t Save Stock Market | Michael Oliver

      If you want a good buy-and-hold stock group to get into the miners haven’t been having much love in a very long time. Their time is due now. My question, though, that no one can answer until we get there is will this massive run-up in PMs be a sustainable thing due to the damage that is and is going to be done to the markets as we do a swan dive into the abyss.

      • June 2021 Bo Polny Baloney on USA WATCHDOG

        Polny also says, “The stock market cycles show the markets start to plunge next week, and they plunge for weeks. That is a Third Seal moment where we have a complete financial shift of the economy as we know it. . . . Celebration will happen on the 4th of July. Evil is taken down. The ‘wow’ moment happened, and between now and July 4th, we got ‘wow.’ God’s people will be celebrating because God moved his hand.”

        • From God’s lips to our ears! Bring it on!

          I still think it’s an indicator we’re living in a matrix, though.

  8. As I watch a world I grew up in disappear before my eyes and see the damage being done by compromised political leaders and radical MSM on our minds, particularly those of our youth, I am reminded of a quote in George Orwell’s book 1984.

    “Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing.”

  9. Hmmm… I wonder how it will taste.. I got the beer recipe for gilgamesh.. nine thousand year old recipe.. Hmm.. the theobroma recipe has to be finished first though.. before I tackle this one.. interesting though.. honey in it..and it is basically a wheat beer…

    • amazing.. they sure do use a lot of dates back then.. which I find interesting..
      FOR MALT:
      3 cups of whole wheat berries

      1.5 Cups Barley Flour
      1/2 cup warm water
      1 tablespoon dry yeast.

      1 cup chopped dates
      4 cups water

      5 gallons filtered water
      Cooked Bappir, torn in pieces
      3 cups of date syrup (or honey)
      1 tablespoon dry yeast.

      DAY 1: Soak wheat berries in water overnight.

      DAY 2: Drain wheat berries and set on cheesecloth suspended over a bowl, covered with another bowl to also tuck the cheesecloth under and keep the wheat berries from sitting in water.
      Combine barley flour, water, and yeast to make the bappir. Knead for 3-5 minutes and set aside, covered, for 2 days.

      DAY 3: Relax

      DAY 4: Preheat oven to 300F. Place sprouted wheat berries on a baking sheet and bake for 30 minutes until dry and just slightly toasty.
      Bake the bappir, for just 10 minutes, cooking the outside but leaving the inside raw.

      DAY 5: Crush malted grain into powder.
      Combine chopped dates and water and boil until reducedto make date syrup. Do not strain solids. Tear the par-cooked bappir into bite sized pieces, combining with date syrup, 1 tbsp yeast, malt powder, and 2 quarts of water. Cover with a cheesecloth and set aside for 2 days.

      DAY 6: Relax

      Day 7: Strain out the big solids, and then give the beer 2 hours for remaining solids to settle. Drink, and relax.

      this should be interesting..

      • Oops forgot to say take the half gallon of mix and put it in fermenter add 4.5 gallons of filtered water mix put yeast on top and let it ferment.
        strain bottle and chill enjoy..

      • You’ll be enjoying the drink of ancient Babylonian kings.. A recipe shared in their farmers almanac in the form of a poem ..
        its also shared in the tablets..

    • I believe the dates were similar to us using raisins.. it was the fruit available and has a wild yeast on it..
      similar to the forbidden wine of China’s first emperor..

  10. Y’know, that Dinty Moore (canned) beef stew is actually pretty damn good. A touch of black pepper helps…
    Chef Boyardee’s stuff also ain’t too bad…
    Spam is better than I remember, too…

    (been “auditioning…”)

    Could be worse….

    It’s not what happens to ya that matters.
    It’s what ya make of it.

    • Boil up some barley until tender, add the Dinty Moore and you’ve got Beef Barley soup. Better than Campbells.

      But don’t get me started on Spam recipes. That’s a staple here in Hawaii. Every convenience food store that sells snacks has ‘Spam Musubi’. A block of rice with a slice of spam on it, wrapped in a band of seaweed. I think it’s Japanese origin.

    • In my long-ago homemaking days, I rarely bought ready-to-eat canned food. But now that I’m a prepper, I’ve also been auditioning food. Amazingly, Spam is the big winner so far! My memory of it from my youth is that it was yukky, although my mother claimed she never served it to us. But since it’s recommended as a storage food on many prepping websites, I thought I’d better try it. Took me months to actually buy a can, and another several months before I dared to open it. Surprise! It was good enough to stock up on, and has healthier ingredients than most other canned food. It can easily replace ham pieces in recipes, and has myriad other uses that Hawaii Hank could probably tell us, since it appears to be the national food of Hawaii, used even in good restaurants.

      Other good stand-alone canned foods are Read’s German Potato Salad, Dennison’s Chili Con Carne with Beans, the meal-type Progresso Soups, and my old favorite–Chef Boyardee Mini Ravioli.

    • “Y’know, that Dinty Moore (canned) beef stew is actually pretty damn good.”

      Used to be. Like a lot of other stuff, they changed the recipe about 4-5 years ago. It still tastes pretty good, but the taste changed and suddenly it began to give me horrible indigestion. It is one of many whose recipes or ingredient sources have changed. All screw with my upper GI.

      The Chef’s stuff has not changed, and it does not mess with me gut. I keep a few cans of spaghetti laying around because it’s not terribly unhealthy, and sometimes you need a meal you can fix in three minutes. It was better, mixed 50/50 with Franco-American spaghetti. Unfortunately, Campbell’s bought F-A and killed off all their canned pasta products except “Spaghetti-Os,” which aren’t the same thing.

      I’ve been low-salt for 25 years so Spam is verboten.

      Always read the labels and know where your Piggly Kroger’s clearance shelf is located…

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