This Glorious Blow-off: Updating the 1929 Replay

Ever since the Housing Bubble bottom in 2009 we have suspected that this will be the “big one” of this lifetime for all around to see it.  That’s because none of the excesses of the financial system have been resolved, as an inspection of the Dollar’s purchasing power will reveal.

While you’ve been sleeping (which for most people lasts a lifetime) the Fed and CONgressoids have conspired to spend more money than they take in.  The way this POS economy has been kept alive has been by watering down the purchasing power of money by the same amount as the Gross National Theft.

You can see using the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator (which we take to be honest enough) that the Dollar has 3-cents on the dollar of purchasing power compared with what it had in 1913 when the bankster coup took place.

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Now, we interest rates basically unable to rise – due to a host of factors including but not limited to falling (real) consumer discretionary and such – we are wandering through a replay of the events of the Roaring Twenties and then we shall slide into the Depression Replay.  On a chart, our course looks like this:

The stock market is not alone.  The constant dilution of purchasing power shows up everywhere.  And to us, one of the most evident analogs to Tulip Mania is the current headlong rush into crypto currencies.

Semi-parabolic blow-off tops are difficult for the SMS/spewflake crowd to see.  The reason is simple:  They haven’t walked the Earth long enough to draw back a ways from the current flow of spew and look at the longer views where real economic truth becomes “slap-upside-the-head” apparent:

That little yellow area?  Oh, that’s when we told our Peoplenomics subscribers (January-March when around $400) “Ya’ll go have fun in BTCs…we’ll just watch.”

With BTCs trading in the $2,600 range today, that may seem foolish, but despite the HS&J (spewflake note: hype, shuck, and jive) BTC gains really are taxable income.  Other cryptos seem to be enjoying the same kind of mania, too.

Breathless True Believer are telling us “…governments are goinog crypto, too!”  But we’ll just wait.  They certainly thought of basing the national budget of Holland on Tulips back in 1634, but near as I’ve found in the textbooks, the guilders remained.

Still, the manias are marvels to behold and (you may find this hard to believe) this should – in our work – just be the start of the MIND BLOWING TOP that should reach its pinnacle in August.

Have fun.

We’re waiting for that “last train out” which is where we will ride to the summit.  But instead of holding on for the top, we plan to get off the train a bit ahead of the crowd and load up on the short side.  As the “weak hands” come in (esp. people who bought into the Iraqi Dinar deal might be a useful indicator) we will quietly side with Big Money and load up on long-term short positions.

All of the problems that seem fairly small today are really MUCH larger problems in the long haul.

Congress is likely to stampede into a tax cut of some kind, no matter how small.  The Special Prosecutor might look beyond Trump at you-know-who and tell us how that Uranium deal and contributions deal worked…

Then we have Kid Korea who is sharpening up while the U.S. is quietly moving materiel into position for what could be the resumption of the Korean conflict; never settled, just found to a draw half a century back.

Robotics are coming, too.  Business process re-engineering is reducing the need for humans as we speak.  And demand for housing and new family formations is looking sketchy since the mass marketing of alternative sexualities has reduced further population prospects.

All of these set up the makings of a Depression.  That’s because capitalism works GREAT when there is growth in the mix.  But don’t look now:  Growth of the generic type is an endangered species.

In one iteration of our work, that 371 point downer last week was a solid echo of the 10/29/1929 crash.

Real business people aren’t going to wait till the iPhone 8 comes out this fall.  A loaded iPhone 7 is nearly $1-kilobuck.  Sends the same texts, has Siri in it for the dial and maps…My point being a new phone turn isn’t going to save this pig of an economy.

Our message for this morning is simple:  While logic would dictate that the market should be taking a bit of a pause prior to the holiday, we may have misjudged the levels of euphoria and the pre-holiday rally could scream upward.  Spewflakes and their texts about instant riches in crypto markets do things like this.

At last they did the last time around, though the comparisons must be adjusted for factors like Saturday trading back then.  But who knows?  Maybe this mania will arrive again, as well.

Armed with our longer view of history we’ll continue investing in the things that matter.  Rock dust, lime, sand, vermiculite, hydroponics gear, and yes, heritage seeds from this year’s crop for next year.

It may be time to again ask the question posed by poet/songwriter Bob Dylan in about 1963:

And what did you hear, my blue-eyed son?
And what did you hear, my darling young one?
I heard the sound of a thunder, it roared out a warnin’
Heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world
Heard one person starve, I heard many people laughin’
Heard the song of a poet who died in the gutter
Heard the sound of a clown who cried in the alley
And it’s a hard, and it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard
And it’s a hard rain’s a-gonna fall.

Gravity ultimately runs markets and what goes up….We’re nearly to the time when standing back to see the bigger picture will chart the course of your remaining days.

But pay me no mind, we still have some months to Let the Good Times Roll.

Futures are up another 60.  Yee haw!  (for now).

Miscellaneous

While saving your financial butt would seem like the ONLY thbing that matters in this foxtrot uniformed world, it seems the MainStreramMedia/YellowJournos think elsewise.

I don’t think, for example, that first lady Melania Trump’s religious choice, for example, is headline material.

But then neither is this:  Jimmy Kimmel Mocks President Trump’s Pope Visit: ‘Is Nothing Sacred?’

Instead, a more thoughtful person mighty pick something like Jimmy Kimmel Mocks President Trump’s Pope Visit: ‘Is Nothing Sacred?’  as reason Houstonians may be about to ‘give tanks” so to speak.

Short Column?

No, not really.  A lot of our readers, though, are hitting the road for the first day of summer.  Not that we don’t know when the solstice is, but we’re mindful of How Memorial Day Went From Somber Occasion to Summer Celebration.

A Trend to Watch

This is more directed at our Peoplenomics.com subscribers where we have outlined the business model migration path to taking the privately owned car model and turning it into a government/industry owned model.

Some Uber and Lyft Riders Are Already Ditching Their Own Cars.

As prices go up, ownership will go down.  As insurance claims go down, self-driving car software updates will become more expensive.  And, in the end, the Big Game will be to make your annual auto safety inspection into a “Software Update Required” check…because you aren’t in the land of the free, home of the brave, no matter what the back story to Memorial Day is.

We live in the Land of the Business Model, Home of Raw Ankles.

Drive safely…and put carefully.