Futuring: It’s a Data-Dense Week

There’s so much on the economic “dance card” this week that extra deodorant may be needed by Friday.  Let’s begin with a short boogie through some news, shall we?

First however:  Many people hate Mondays, but compared to other days of the week, we get off easy.

For one, there are only 52 of them (most years).  And, for another, there are usually several “Monday Holidays” in the US.

Toss in a couple of lost-Monday’s due to how you plan your vacations, and Mondays verge on being benign.

Not that the news flow stops on Mondays; we’ll get to this morning’s Personal Income data in a sec.  But no,, the “Fat Epidemic” story isn’t really news.  My doc has been whining about weight almost forever.  What that story really means in the MSM doesn’t have an agenda to hype today.

So we’re focusing on it being Monday.  Thing is, if you wangle four-weeks of vacation, 52 Monday’s can drop to 48.  With two Monday holidays left this year (Columbus Day and Memorial Day hit on Mondays), we’re down to 46.

ML King day and Washington’s Birthday will fall on Mondays next year, so the “Monday count” drops to 44.  We haven’t used any “extra” sick leave, or personal, (“comp”) days yet, but timed judiciously, we might be able to get the number of Mondays down to 40.

And the great news then is that Mondays so-structured, are only 76.9% as tiresome as, oh, Wednesdays, for example. See why we look forward to them?

Just trying to keep things in perspective… Upbeat (and delusional).

Now, About those Personal Income Numbers…

Just out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (a nice way of saying :”From the Federal Fairy-tale Writers…”), we have been eyeing the following with some suspicion:

“Personal income increased $11.4 billion (0.1 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $0.6 billion, (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $123.5 billion (0.9 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in March, and real PCE increased 0.7 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

And our favorite punchline in this data series:

” Personal saving was $1.16 trillion in February, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.3 percent..”

Yeah-sure, you betcha.  You see, that sort of saving rate implies that “savings” in 11 months should enable us to all bel debt-free.  And pardoning my French, that isn’t that a crockashitz?

In a couple of hours, Dallas Fed manufacturing numbers will be along.

But, the Fun is Just Beginning

Because this is “Fed Week.”  That is, tomorrow morning the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) will sit down for interest rate deliberations.

As we have consistently advised, the Fed is generally “full of ‘sit’:” because it will take two days of “chairing” to figure out that there’s no (responsible) way in hell that rates can be raised at this time.

Fortunately, the doctor who was in the house has continued his work back in University.  I speak of Dr. Ben Bernanke and colleagues who are quietly guiding the L4L (lower for longer) rate regimen.

While the Fed will gavel in tomorrow, there’s also the matter of Housing Data due from Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic and whoever else wandered by.  That’ll be out tomorrow morning. You might background with Six Cities Leading Shift toward a Buyers’ Market, According to First American Real House Price Index.

Our expectation is along the lines of “the rich will get richer” and the “poor will get poorer.”  Which, in the case of Housing means the “hot markets” will remain firm/tight while the bastions around the edges…well….not too much that can stop the roll-over there.

Except, as we have advised, the reason for a middle-of-the-road view of immigration is that in the very short-term, we can likely use illegal aliens as an economic stimulus, the same way Europe has.

Which then circles back to the like Fed hold announcement Wednesday.

Job Numbers are Coming, Too

Before the open Wednesday, we’ll have the ADP employment numbers.  Which means the Challenger4 Job Cuts will be along by Thursday.

All that is foreplay for the Department of :Labor Employment Situation report Friday.  You’ll want to have your hip boots at the ready for it, too.  Because the Mindless Mainstream will parrot whatever the “headline” number is.  Which is terribly misleading because it double counts a lot in the “gig economy.”

Not that those numbers are not “real” in a six-sigma statistical sense.  but we prefer less noisy data.  Which is why we tend to judge economic health by how many people (over all, whole country) actually have jobs.  The rest?  Statistical cocaine.  Useful for a short-term high, but in the long-run not good for one’s attention.

We shan’t become overly wrought over the Bank of England rates due Thursday (no move likely).  But, somewhere in the Friday US Data Trifecta (employment, inventory levels and international trade) we could see some reasons to “sell in May” beginning to appear.

We are not alone in our rate-hikes-over view: Global tightening cycle over, slower ride for growth ahead: Reuters Poll.

When we tell you that we’re living in a “Zero Growth, Infinite Hype” economy right now, a look at last week’s report on actual railroad cargo from the American Association of Railroads Railtime Indicators data series seems to hold a simple explanation:

“For the first 16 weeks of 2019, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,969,837 carloads, down 2.7 percent from the same point last year; and 4,266,729 intermodal units, down 1.0 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 16 weeks of 2019 was 8,236,566 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.8 percent compared to last year.”

Since most of the “shrinkage” of modern electronics is behind us, the logical inference is that actual unit counts are soft and rolling over…  gig economy distortion could become a hot subject later in the year, depending on when people wake up.

Oh!  And it’s why we are skeptical of the Perma-Bull’s calling for an upside break-out of major consequence.

Our favored view now would be a modest decline into June, marginal new highs in August or Early September and then look out below.  At least that’s where this morning’s first dart hit.

Pope-a-Dope?

We were appalled by the weekend headlines pope Francis donates $500000 to migrants at US border.

Once upon a time, there was a separation of church and state in America.  Now, though, we are pretty sure the Pope ought to have his hearing checked so he can understand what the Trump base has been saying about the border.

Granted, the pope doesn’t seem at bent on taking down the US through invasion of America, as much as some of the liberal lefties have advocated (like “‘I’d take the wall down,’ says Beto O’Rourke of current border barriers” back in Feb.).

Remember, a collection of people without borders is NOT a country.  It’s a mess.

Future Word: BRI

We will get into this more on Wednesday in Peoplenomics, but there’s a very big change in how Globalism operates that most Americans are totally in the dark about.  Mainly because the Mindless Mainstream is only a self-referencing feedback loop.

In the “real-world” of data collecting, the BRI has been percolating a while as the “Belt and Road Initiative” which, as we’ll explain, is how China is cleverly seizing on the concept of “Globalism” and plans to take over the entire world, or at least minimally, end any question about who is the world’s super power.

Related?  This Wikipedia snip:

“It had been known as the One Belt One Road (OBOR)  and the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, Until 2016 the initiative was officially known in English as the One Belt and One Road initiative but the official name was changed as the Chinese government considered the emphasis on the word “one” as being prone to misinterpretation.

The Chinese government calls the initiative “a bid to enhance regional connectivity and embrace a brighter future” Some observers see it as a push for Chinese dominance in global affairs with a China-centered trading network.

We will save the deeper discussion for Peoplenomics subscribers, but the main (hidden by the lackadaisical US media) idea is that China’s staking out the Middle East and Africa while the US and Russia deal with the Muslim dreams of the Global Caliphate and such.

Don’t think “Silk Road” – think “Resource Roadways.”

Why Most People Slept

There was something fishy going on in Scandanavia: Russian Navy May Have Trained Whale Discovered in Norway, Specialists Say.

The grown-ups in cold warfare know we use whales/dolphins to patrol around places like Bangor, Washington.

Was it the right plea? Man accused of marrying 4 women to plead guilty.  We wonder if he could have entered a plea of stupid.

Burning Down the House? Naw: Although Blaze breaks out in forest that inspired Winnie-the-Pooh has us wondering…

“Broken Web, II” Note

We see the idea of a global, wide-open interest riding off into the sunset.  In its place will come regionally censored data resources.  So in keeping with this forecast, please not “Majority of Russians Oppose ‘Sovereign Internet’ Bill – Poll.”

Oh, and speaking of Russian PR moves: Russia Drops Out of Top 5 Defense Spending Countries – Think Tank.  Colort us skeptical and let’s see how their Arms Exports look for the year, shall we?  Why spend when you can “discount” in return for future considerations and draft choices?

OK, the Major needs a lift to the airport…so ya’ll come back and we’ll have moron the morrow…