Futuring: It’s a Data-Dense Week

There’s so much on the economic “dance card” this week that extra deodorant may be needed by Friday.  Let’s begin with a short boogie through some news, shall we?

First however:  Many people hate Mondays, but compared to other days of the week, we get off easy.

For one, there are only 52 of them (most years).  And, for another, there are usually several “Monday Holidays” in the US.

Toss in a couple of lost-Monday’s due to how you plan your vacations, and Mondays verge on being benign.

Not that the news flow stops on Mondays; we’ll get to this morning’s Personal Income data in a sec.  But no,, the “Fat Epidemic” story isn’t really news.  My doc has been whining about weight almost forever.  What that story really means in the MSM doesn’t have an agenda to hype today.

So we’re focusing on it being Monday.  Thing is, if you wangle four-weeks of vacation, 52 Monday’s can drop to 48.  With two Monday holidays left this year (Columbus Day and Memorial Day hit on Mondays), we’re down to 46.

ML King day and Washington’s Birthday will fall on Mondays next year, so the “Monday count” drops to 44.  We haven’t used any “extra” sick leave, or personal, (“comp”) days yet, but timed judiciously, we might be able to get the number of Mondays down to 40.

And the great news then is that Mondays so-structured, are only 76.9% as tiresome as, oh, Wednesdays, for example. See why we look forward to them?

Just trying to keep things in perspective… Upbeat (and delusional).

Now, About those Personal Income Numbers…

Just out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (a nice way of saying :”From the Federal Fairy-tale Writers…”), we have been eyeing the following with some suspicion:

“Personal income increased $11.4 billion (0.1 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $0.6 billion, (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $123.5 billion (0.9 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in March, and real PCE increased 0.7 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

And our favorite punchline in this data series:

” Personal saving was $1.16 trillion in February, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.3 percent..”

Yeah-sure, you betcha.  You see, that sort of saving rate implies that “savings” in 11 months should enable us to all bel debt-free.  And pardoning my French, that isn’t that a crockashitz?

In a couple of hours, Dallas Fed manufacturing numbers will be along.

But, the Fun is Just Beginning

Because this is “Fed Week.”  That is, tomorrow morning the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) will sit down for interest rate deliberations.

As we have consistently advised, the Fed is generally “full of ‘sit’:” because it will take two days of “chairing” to figure out that there’s no (responsible) way in hell that rates can be raised at this time.

Fortunately, the doctor who was in the house has continued his work back in University.  I speak of Dr. Ben Bernanke and colleagues who are quietly guiding the L4L (lower for longer) rate regimen.

While the Fed will gavel in tomorrow, there’s also the matter of Housing Data due from Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic and whoever else wandered by.  That’ll be out tomorrow morning. You might background with Six Cities Leading Shift toward a Buyers’ Market, According to First American Real House Price Index.

Our expectation is along the lines of “the rich will get richer” and the “poor will get poorer.”  Which, in the case of Housing means the “hot markets” will remain firm/tight while the bastions around the edges…well….not too much that can stop the roll-over there.

Except, as we have advised, the reason for a middle-of-the-road view of immigration is that in the very short-term, we can likely use illegal aliens as an economic stimulus, the same way Europe has.

Which then circles back to the like Fed hold announcement Wednesday.

Job Numbers are Coming, Too

Before the open Wednesday, we’ll have the ADP employment numbers.  Which means the Challenger4 Job Cuts will be along by Thursday.

All that is foreplay for the Department of :Labor Employment Situation report Friday.  You’ll want to have your hip boots at the ready for it, too.  Because the Mindless Mainstream will parrot whatever the “headline” number is.  Which is terribly misleading because it double counts a lot in the “gig economy.”

Not that those numbers are not “real” in a six-sigma statistical sense.  but we prefer less noisy data.  Which is why we tend to judge economic health by how many people (over all, whole country) actually have jobs.  The rest?  Statistical cocaine.  Useful for a short-term high, but in the long-run not good for one’s attention.

We shan’t become overly wrought over the Bank of England rates due Thursday (no move likely).  But, somewhere in the Friday US Data Trifecta (employment, inventory levels and international trade) we could see some reasons to “sell in May” beginning to appear.

We are not alone in our rate-hikes-over view: Global tightening cycle over, slower ride for growth ahead: Reuters Poll.

When we tell you that we’re living in a “Zero Growth, Infinite Hype” economy right now, a look at last week’s report on actual railroad cargo from the American Association of Railroads Railtime Indicators data series seems to hold a simple explanation:

“For the first 16 weeks of 2019, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,969,837 carloads, down 2.7 percent from the same point last year; and 4,266,729 intermodal units, down 1.0 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 16 weeks of 2019 was 8,236,566 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.8 percent compared to last year.”

Since most of the “shrinkage” of modern electronics is behind us, the logical inference is that actual unit counts are soft and rolling over…  gig economy distortion could become a hot subject later in the year, depending on when people wake up.

Oh!  And it’s why we are skeptical of the Perma-Bull’s calling for an upside break-out of major consequence.

Our favored view now would be a modest decline into June, marginal new highs in August or Early September and then look out below.  At least that’s where this morning’s first dart hit.

Pope-a-Dope?

We were appalled by the weekend headlines pope Francis donates $500000 to migrants at US border.

Once upon a time, there was a separation of church and state in America.  Now, though, we are pretty sure the Pope ought to have his hearing checked so he can understand what the Trump base has been saying about the border.

Granted, the pope doesn’t seem at bent on taking down the US through invasion of America, as much as some of the liberal lefties have advocated (like “‘I’d take the wall down,’ says Beto O’Rourke of current border barriers” back in Feb.).

Remember, a collection of people without borders is NOT a country.  It’s a mess.

Future Word: BRI

We will get into this more on Wednesday in Peoplenomics, but there’s a very big change in how Globalism operates that most Americans are totally in the dark about.  Mainly because the Mindless Mainstream is only a self-referencing feedback loop.

In the “real-world” of data collecting, the BRI has been percolating a while as the “Belt and Road Initiative” which, as we’ll explain, is how China is cleverly seizing on the concept of “Globalism” and plans to take over the entire world, or at least minimally, end any question about who is the world’s super power.

Related?  This Wikipedia snip:

“It had been known as the One Belt One Road (OBOR)  and the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, Until 2016 the initiative was officially known in English as the One Belt and One Road initiative but the official name was changed as the Chinese government considered the emphasis on the word “one” as being prone to misinterpretation.

The Chinese government calls the initiative “a bid to enhance regional connectivity and embrace a brighter future” Some observers see it as a push for Chinese dominance in global affairs with a China-centered trading network.

We will save the deeper discussion for Peoplenomics subscribers, but the main (hidden by the lackadaisical US media) idea is that China’s staking out the Middle East and Africa while the US and Russia deal with the Muslim dreams of the Global Caliphate and such.

Don’t think “Silk Road” – think “Resource Roadways.”

Why Most People Slept

There was something fishy going on in Scandanavia: Russian Navy May Have Trained Whale Discovered in Norway, Specialists Say.

The grown-ups in cold warfare know we use whales/dolphins to patrol around places like Bangor, Washington.

Was it the right plea? Man accused of marrying 4 women to plead guilty.  We wonder if he could have entered a plea of stupid.

Burning Down the House? Naw: Although Blaze breaks out in forest that inspired Winnie-the-Pooh has us wondering…

Broken Web, II” Note

We see the idea of a global, wide-open interest riding off into the sunset.  In its place will come regionally censored data resources.  So in keeping with this forecast, please not “Majority of Russians Oppose ‘Sovereign Internet’ Bill – Poll.”

Oh, and speaking of Russian PR moves: Russia Drops Out of Top 5 Defense Spending Countries – Think Tank.  Colort us skeptical and let’s see how their Arms Exports look for the year, shall we?  Why spend when you can “discount” in return for future considerations and draft choices?

OK, the Major needs a lift to the airport…so ya’ll come back and we’ll have moron the morrow…

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

22 thoughts on “Futuring: It’s a Data-Dense Week”

  1. Hey George – Gold and US Dollar are not buying the BS financial news. Fed Funds Rate is supposedly going down soon, but rates are actually going up in real world finance – with US dollars getting scarcer by the day. DeutschBank derivative book is “arcing and sparking”, will there be a big bang and puff of smoke?
    As the FED unwinds their book, liquidity gets tighter and tighter for US Banks..? When a US “bank” has to go to the Feds Discount Window this time around, will market react as is it did in 2008 and Slam the offending bank ala BearStearns & Lehman? This scenario remind you of old western movie with out out of control wagon carrying a load of hot sweaty Nitro?

    Crash has a wonderful SHORT -Term (1-2 days) at a time ETF symbol EUO – profit from collapse of Euro…how low can U go?

  2. Strange thing about the BRI I see some 125 countries have signed on to it, some in Europe and more will join in the coming months of 2019,and yes it does have some very good points where it promotes trade rather then war and destruction,something that we simply can’t grasp as we practice our sanctions loot and destroy mentality,we simply can’t grasp that our so called type of capitalism is being rejected by most of the world as we head for a third world status,still unwilling to admit that changes need to be made in the ways we interact with other nations of the world.!!!

  3. “if you wangle four-weeks of vacation,”

    HAHAHAHAHAHA…
    For bottom feeders employers don’t offer vacations as a benefit any more.. bahahaha
    My last employer went by point..if you were a point 1 you were guaranteed one day of work per pay period. I was a point 5 .. and your responsible for your weekend shift. Maximum ten days of vacation a year potential to take off five. Took three days off to go to Wally world and come payday no pay. Seems I worked the five days that I was guaranteed. The same with sick time. No phone in excuse for weather illness. It’s the same as quitting.
    Now executives get the bennies not the workers. Vast majority hire part time.

    • I once worked for some idiots from Bulgaria who would send me on overseas trips then not want to pay for my time since I didn’t “clock in”. Yep, executives punching a time clock. Can’t quite do it by remote control…Brilliant idea!
      And they would send me and others on trips with a company credit card that was no good, and they knew it too! Expected you to cover your own expenses then beg to be reimbursed.

      • W/D…. that sounds like my wifes ex employer.they sold the place out to some body…….
        Get this.. he had bad credit.. and a poor payment history.. and the bank gave him a what a two billion dollar loan to get these businesses…hahahaha… he didn’t pay wages utilities etc. Etc.. employees would bring in supplies and food .. with each person there paying what basically a quarter mil a year to be there lol lol lol for was what a year or more…the tragedy hit what seven or eight states
        I always thought it was a myth that banks would hand out dough like that..especially to someone with a credit history like that

  4. “Many people hate Mondays, but compared to other days of the week, we get off easy.” Lucky You!!

    In >20 years from now you’ll be just happy to wake up w/o pain, regardless of the day of the week. (Chronic pain will change anyone’s outlook on everything!!).

    Just saying ; -), so enjoy every day w/o pain while they are available. Everyone, take care of yourselves!

    • Bruno.This must be nostalgia day reflecting on how life use to be…. back in the sixties people worked five days a week had a weekend off.. today for the vast majority that isn’t the way it is. After deregulation people were forced to work longer hours and Sunday wasn’t any longer a day of rest… so The Monday being a stressful day because you had to get used to working again is is now from days gone by. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcIK3akktLU .. today must be nostalgia day reflecting on how it use to be LOL.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHD4kGY7tbs

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRRXg1yhsEk

      this one below use to be my work a day song….

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy46iOwWQiE

      • when I was working.. a day of rest or vacation was an eight hour day.. and in over thirty years I didn’t have one holiday off…
        My wife always said.. I tried to cram forty eight hours of work into twenty four.. when the health issues took me down I was down to a hundred hours a week give or take ten hours.. HELL.. year was 140 plus a week..thats the year I worked to pay off a surgical debt at the hospital..

  5. I don’t want web licensing because then we lose valuable resources like UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics aming other places including learning how to do things like make your own stuff, how to own your life, not rent it.

    • Actually, there are a couple of models where licensing would be a good thing.
      For example, if there was a licensing fee ($100 bucks a year) and then $x for however many readers a page had.
      That would cut down ads, but too many of them to even put a dent in actual operating costs.

      Even better is if the fees were used to crush overwhelming intellectual property theft that runs rampant on the next thanks to bit torrents and such…

      • That is an interesting way of seeing it and could see the seriously good implications of it. So how do know government won’t just Jack up prices and screw you and other good people? Especially since you encourage like me to think while government wants good stupid subservient people.

  6. George, the so called “savings rate” is nothing more than the rate at which our economic system shovels money up to the super-rich faster than they can spend it.

    As for the bottom 99%, yeah, it’s pretty meaningless

  7. President Donald Trump has no doubt been great for the economy, and in turn, the stock market.

    But he’s like a bottomless pit when it comes to his need for constant attention, praise and affirmation, so of course he doesn’t think he’s getting enough credit.

    “The Stock Market hit an all-time record high today and they’re actually talking impeachment?” he tweeted last week. “Will I ever be given credit for anything?”

    WELL DONE PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP!!!

    • Well not quite,I see a Fed. Report the other day that the total debt of the U.S. and its people totals $74 trillion or $220,000 plus for each man woman and child in the U.S.,I now understand why George brings up the endless increase in the money supply,for it has to stay ahead of the economy or the whole ponzi scheme would crash and burn,but then again all that new money must decrease the value of the money already sloshing around in the system.!!

  8. Hey George, very odd about Beto. He is clearly outside the D’s on that one. Wonder if he will try to lie about it (The Trump Model). If he rises farther, the D’s will club him with it. (Funny how you accept the MSM’s accuracy when it helps your agenda.)

    Was thinking. When the Trump had total control of the gov’t, which did he pass:
    1. Immigration reform
    2. Healthcare
    3. Infrastructure, or
    4. Tax cuts where 83% ($1.74 trillion of the $2 trillion) went to the Upper 1%?

    Trump SPEAKS for The Base, but he ACTS for the Super Wealthy.
    Odd how they adopted one of the Upper 1% to be their champion.
    Hats off — brilliant marketing.
    Best, Mike.

    • Mike,
      Please down load a copy of the Constitution and the Federalist Papers. Read them. You shouldn’t have a problem with the vocabulary.

      The president proposes. Congress disposes.

      Executive orders are subject to judicial review.

      Trump has been effectively blocked by Congress or the judicial system. All democrats are anti Trump. Not all republicans are for Trump. Therefore….

      In my profession we had an aphorism about providing factual.information “verify, verify, verify” .

  9. The crow have taken monies and bought thief stock to give appearance of market up. The market is a lie false value so trump has only played along in lie. Nothing is being put into real value and all will crash. BUY SHORT

    • I am dying to know.. if the major discovers his slippers sitting there.. where he was pacing his bag.

  10. This is Jester declaring May days are almost upon us and – Brexit be damned – there shall be great celebration in the United Kingdom formerly known as Great Britain merely one month henceforth!

    President Trump shall be making a state visit to the UK at the start of June reflecting only the third US President to be so honoured. One does hope Mr. Trump chooses to descend from the heavens via the Upper Class stairway of Air Force One. Posh is still in with the Lords, we hear.

    The three day event includes a state dinner at Buckingham Palace. Her Majesty’s Band has previously played “If I Ruled the World” at dinner service to the colonial ears of a mere African dictator. Therefore one can only dryly anticipate Her Majesty’s selection in the presence of a World Superpower.

    Yes…one marvels at the possibilities…

  11. Well, Ollie, he’s done it now. How interesting that the NRA-Trump funding debacle may trace back to “The Trace” fathered by the world’s ninth richest man, a former mayor, and a democrat. Lovely in-laws? Hail Caesar or Hail to the Chief? Place your bets.

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