Does the Fed Watch Prime Day? Rally

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Well, rather than spend the day with this project (computer ate my  first report) let’s go ahead and reconstruct the shower version of today’s report.

First thing was to wonder if the Fed would look at Amazon press releases when Prime Day results come in.  Yes, this is prime day – see deals here.

Reason I’m so mad about losing the original of this morning’s report is I went through our logical processes to arrive at what to buy today.

Turned out only a new air conditioner for the office – ultra quiet – I hate the noise of the present a/c – and a new office chair.

But I was wondering – through all this – if the Fed would consider Prime Day as they try to figure out whether to raise a quarter, half, or even three-quarters.

Sure, there would be some distortion – unit volumes, longshoring holdups and such.  But, all data is useful at some level.

NFIB Report

Yes, it sounded hopeful:

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.6 points in June to 91.0, however, it is the 18th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Inflation and labor quality are tied as the top small business concerns with 24% of owners reporting each as their single most important problem. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased three points to a net 29% seasonally adjusted, still a very inflationary level but trending down. This is the lowest reading since March 2021.

But not perfect.

Our Rally Arrived:

Monday rally chartr
We were surprised the sell off went at deep Monday but we would not be surprised to see a rally into this afternoon before the cowards all head for the exitsahead of tomorrows CPI

Just as predicted in our Monday Report.

Bitcoin Hype is All Over

Even in our chart work, it’s easy to call $35,000 in here:

bitcoin price channels
Looking at things the BTC is generally following the path of stocks since the 2021 Nov highs Now like the market BTC is trying to finish its Wave 2 v up

After this, in the version of this morning’s report that disappeared on me, I covered, among other things:

A Few Headlines

We won’t have to watch trial TV?  Trump lawyers seek to delay trial over hoarding classified documents.

As the headlines drive us to drink:  Ex-Anheuser-Busch exec says Dylan Mulvaney partnership ‘was a mistake’. No shit.

Another Day on the Path to War:  Indonesian diplomat says nuclear weapons put Asia at a ‘miscalculation away from apocalypse’.  Hear that, brother.  And NATO is trying to weasel word Ukraine into their control as Zelenskiy Says It Would Be ‘Absurd’ If NATO Doesn’t Give Kyiv A Clear Road Map At Summit.

Around the Ranch:  Was it Something I Wrote?

We will be having a little match shoot this morning out on the range.  My AK, G2 AR, and James on his .308.

It was while going into some gunsmithing notes that my site “ate” this morning’s first version of today’s report.  Just strange!

I never have problems with posts posting (like this morning’s second pass through today’s news).

Just odd that when I mention the long guns, it disappeared.  Strange.

Write when normal is in view again.

George@Ure.net

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/
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62 thoughts on “Does the Fed Watch Prime Day? Rally”

  1. Damm Dude,

    Ure warned hisself, made note of the warning in Urban. Wonder was it a failure of communications or lack o respect the Source, that allowed U to get “Merced” or “retro’D” on 7/11.

    No Matta – dont mind the splatta. $ today dawns a new opportunity 4 youse all to WIN in the mkts.

    BITF – you have seen Symbol here before – up over 91% this month. Time to “lick Ure ice cream” as we reload Call spreadsz going forward- Rolling Up, HomeGamerz!

    ..Bullish on BTC related equities, until otherwise advised or BTC underlying hits $34k.
    Big BEAR on WOKE..DIS/BUD..looking for 4 more Woke ass corps – to SHORT the guts out of!

    Any and All WOKE Companies are on my _ _ _ _ list.

    Suggestions – WOKE corporations, Please.

    THANX

      • Beat DIS this AM – like a dead horse! See BUD, see the CEO 2 weeks too late to RESIGN. They should told him woke was like SAND – dude would have laid down his Life for taking a strip of worthless Sand. True to the Corp – dude took a fatal blow, and still dont realize it, even after ex/past CEO wrote letter to board urging him to resign -before the company goes to ZERO.

        WOKE – Hero to Zero..a frigging place holder BUDlight.

        LOSER BEER for Losers, run by Losers.

        “This TRANNY Is 4 You!” Murhica!

  2. George,

    This morning, at about 8:00 am (it’s presently 3:55 pm where I am) I was thinking about your concerns about the 9th of Av, and reading the following at Stu’s site, The Age of Desolation…

    “Consider 2012 and the 9th of Av, which is the 9th Day of the 11th Month in the Jewish calendar. The 2012 London Summer Olympics celebrated the 311-year rule of the Hanoverian Succession and the Queen’s Diamond jubilee.”

    Ok, now you tell me, what are the odds?

    Later in the morning, at around 10, I enter the kitchen and look at the wall clock, the second hand is not moving, so ok, battery died, strange I thought, because I had changed it not long ago… then it hit me, the clock stopped at exactly 9:11!

    Is this an omen of things to come?

  3. “I never have problems with posts posting (like this morning’s second pass through today’s news).”

    What about in February?

    Rally Continues – Internet Eats Column

    February 9, 2023 by George Ure
    Wow. Never had this happen before. The internet ate my report. Wrote a dynamite column (aren’t they all?) and WTF? All disappeared. 2 hours of work down the crapper. Controversial stuff this time – odd how that stuff goes bye-bye. Maybe this is just my computer keeping me out of jail, or worse, though… hmm.. … Read more

    • lol lol lol lol
      AMEN
      lol lol lol
      I think we need to go back to the way it was in the 1600’s
      back when wars were fought the kings and their children and the politicians were the first on the battle fields lol lol.. wars wouldn’t be as often as they are now..
      hmm..

  5. Early in my writing career, I found that I could never re-create writing that my computer ate. It was just never as good. All the way from MS-DOS, through all the flavors of windows, I have gone to great lengths to not loose files. I have used backup floppies, 3 1/2 disks, and others. Finally, I took a tip from Rush and subscribed to Carbonite.
    Knocking on wood, I haven;t lost a file since then, through power glitches, computer crashes, hard drive failures, and computer death.
    I feel your pain, and thanks for all your great work.

    • You know, A.G. that is normally how things work here – on real work – like tomorrow’s Peoplenomics column. All written in Word and backed up.

      But the daily columns are written “in the cloud direct” – and every so often, Starlink – good as it is – will drop out just when a control bit is being sent.

      Even though i had manually saved 3 revisions, the problem with today was All the REvisions Disappeared, too.

      Don’t know what to make of it. Usually, not such a stumper.

      • Hi George. I write fiction (hobby, not as a profession) but I’m a bit hyper about not losing anything I deem really good so I save and then email the document to myself at the end of the writing session. It may make for a lot of email but I think it will keep documents from getting lost.

      • Hmmm. The perhaps this might be in order:
        – Compose in Word
        – Save
        – Copy all
        – then paste into the cloud

        I have to do this when composing a reply to my doctor, as the medical web site times out after ‘x’ minutes and all is lost if not saved.

        • phew I had a dramatic day.. old war vet reliving the horrors of war..
          whe he isn’t self medicated he tells you but he makes you think it’s a joke..
          only to discover today that the kids today don’t have a clue..
          and the VA Healthcare system DOESN’T have a plan legend protocol for it..I have been taking care of people since 68 and I didn’t catch it..carefully hidden away nightmares..only to find out they in all the political BS this hasn’t been addressed seriously..
          politicians sit safely away from it..in Bidens war the people of the US have not experienced the conflicts this administration seems to want us to go through..

        • LOOB; yeah, I had a friend, German, lived through WW2. Both her parents were killed AFTER the war ended as the ALL-LIES dropped all of the rest of their bombs over a defeated Germany.

          She ran home and tried to find her parents, only finding body parts.

          She was found using a hand cart with her Mother’s arm and hand in it, and a few burned out/bombed possessions. She lost her mind for a time.

          She was innocent as many Collateral Damaged humans are.

          I know of others; all of us of a particular age has met or spoken with these casualty figures that have had to overcome or continued to relive the suffering from such incredible hardships the likes that we can’t really imagine.

          And IF that is what you think or mean that we haven’t experienced the conflicts, in our lifetimes and on our shores, that our leaders want us to or are leading us, too, you would be almost correct, except for the Non civil-war and those other White Supremacists terrorist activities inflicted on the country since its founding.

      • At one point early in his career, when starting to sell some stuff but not yet big, Hemmingway had his wife bring a suitcase down (to Spain?? or Venice??) from Paris with ALL of his writings, those completed and those in proces. VOILA the entire suitcase got lost and with it about TWO YEARS worth of Hemmingway’s writings. No need to go into his reaction when that happend.

        The point is that all writers will sometime lose work, sometimes a LOT of their work, if they aren’t careful. Of course in Hemmingway’s day there was no copy machine, it was very expensive to take photographs, so unless he was typing his stuff and using carbon paper there would be NO BACKUP at all. (I have not read about what he did later, but after that experience it would not surprise me if he started using carbon paper and storing a copy every few days of what he had written at a different location).

        Sorry to hear about your loss … I have lost a lot of writing too over years but with computers it is MUCH easier for me today to keep copies of stuff as I write it than it was in the days before we had computers.

        • G, ‘We won’t have to watch trial tv’ – Hunter’s accuser is a fugitive! (loss related – countless hours and ink over Hunter is now down the drain!!)
          https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/11/gal-luft-biden-china-agent-charged
          ‘Tim Miller, a Republican operative turned “Never Trumper”, said: “So the guy who was supposedly gonna blow the whistle on Biden taking payments from foreigners was actually paying off Trump admin officials himself on behalf of China!! Could this be more on the nose? ‘

  6. Here’s a trippy one.

    Scientists Created a Mind-Bending ‘Mirror’ That Reflects Time Backwards

    “Besides lasers, this demonstration of a time reflection is a step forward in our ability to modulate materials in time.”

    “Time reflection is similar, said Alù, except that instead of a physical roadblock, a time mirror works by creating an abrupt change in time. “The larger the contrast, the stronger the time reflection will be,” he said.

    In their study, Alù and his team built a time “mirror” by creating a material capable of literally bending space and time—a so-called metamaterial. The material looks like a large plastic board covered in a long strip of metal weaving back and forth. The metal is loaded with a dense collection of switches that can be flipped on and off faster than the frequency of the incoming wave. This abrupt switching is what creates the mirror. ”

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy3zdm/scientists-created-a-mirror-that-reflects-time-backwards

    Observation of temporal reflection and broadband frequency translation at photonic time interfaces

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-023-01975-y

  7. Had to go without central AC for a week recently. I bought a roll-around, and camped out in the den for the week. The problem I found with the roll-around AC is that they are loud, and typically they come with one exhaust hose. The make-up air comes from infiltration, or a cracked window, so during the heat of the day, the system efficiency goes way way down.
    The window unit I would want to try is a u-shaped Midea. They have to be ordered, due to popularity, but the Depot handles them. You might find one on the Zon.

    • I had one of those floor units that has a hose, like a dryer hose, that goes out the window (they provide an adjustable blocking baffle that goes in the window that you close the window on). Worked very well (8000 BTU), reasonable noise level … and unlike some floor units this one evaporated the moisture it wrung out of the air and expelled it outside. I got it as a back up unit when my central AC went out.

      I gave it to the unit to my older son who’s first house didn’t have AC and it worked great for him. Have no idea as to the brand. Last fall on a fall end of season close out I actually snagged a brand new one in the box for $60, didn’t and don’t need it, but $60 for a $400+ unit (Sam’s had them for $420 at the beginning of the season this year) to keep around as a backup was a deal I couldn’t pass up!!

      Personally not a big AC guy … as long as it’s 85 or below I don’t turn on my house unit. I prefer the “Fresh Air”, even if it is a bit humid. Of course for us older people who grew up with NO AC not having an AC doesn’t seem like much of a loss except for about 10 days a year (then again I don’t live in Texas!!!, Arizona, or OMG Palm Springs!! LOL)

      • and they are cheap .. I actually am planning on a new air conditioner.. wet bowl temp is what 59.. I think I can get it down to just about freezing..
        since wood is so expensive I’m going to make it out of foam

  8. i heard a couple guys on 3806 this morning around 5 or 5.30am, almost readable but not; too weak.

    K4QET

  9. OK George, Mr. Ure you and your “prime day” I can top that!
    Harbor Freight has new tool Tuesday and they have the ONE tool you you lack! A 1/4″ drive ratchet that is GOLD PLATED!
    GOLD PLATED George! For only the low low price of 50 bucks.

    For that price you could get three and its a limited edition!
    The ultimate tool slut status symbol!

    No go forth and syn no more and hurry and get your limited edition GOLD PLATED 1/4″ drive ratchet .
    Stay cool

  10. Well, we all, here, know the World is going to Hell faster than we can all take account of it. I’ve been wondering why I can’t find Lava soap any more. I got the last bar in town at Ace Hardware last week. It’s not on the shelf at H.E.B, Wally World nor Lowe’s then I found this –
    “Lava Soap Discontinued: Any alternative You Can Choose?”
    https://manscipated.com/lava-soap-discontinued/
    The article is dated April of last year.

    Yep, our World will never be the same again. I latched on to about a dozen bars in an estate sale last year and have slowly been going through them. Guess I’ll have to be more careful about letting them turn to goo in the soap dish. There are few odors more wonderful than the smell on your hands when you’ve cleaned them with Lava after skinning a deer or goat. Just another one of those things I grew up with that are gone forever.

  11. In California it iz whut it iz. Rob Kientz’s latest video is currently on live and he included a news station video of the homeless situation in Novato, CA. The video can be found here – https://abc7news.com/binford-road-novato-rv-encampment-marin-county-affordable-housing-bay-area/13325756/ and it kind of blew my hair back a bit. One interviewee said, for her, the pandemic was the tipping point that pushed her to this site full of RVs, the “upper crust” you might say of the homeless. One person had been there 6 years. Another person they interviewed was the Marin County “Director of Homelessness and Whole Person Care”. A title you’d expect to find in California, I guess. Through that agency they are providing some services such as trash pick up and port-a-pottie stations.

    • Bill, Behold the cashless society. A free smartphone brought to you by the Federal Universal Service Fee and the forthcoming FedNow app with some UBI added in would [in theory] help here. Maybe. The tiny house my parents paid $35,000.00 for in LA is listed at > $1.2M in Zwillow now. Thats inflation, and not sustainable. I exited LA in ’83 and never looked back despite the coastal beauty. This is a symptom and about to grow even larger as the Fed tries to navigate the Von Mises debt trap.

      https://www.usdebtclock.org/

      Now with no limitation on the debt cieling until 2025[ when Treasury issues new currency chits]. The growth rate looks to be running at about $1.3T a month and accelerating. When this happend to Mexico they recalled the currency and repriced it. I think that will be the nature of our reset here in USA. Of course we can also follow in the path of Weinmar and Venezuela.

      Got Blockchain?

      • Gold Backed, it will bee.

        but gotz to get thru the Slog.

        ..(blm/antifa/ms13) military aged Males, running thru suburbia (s) across the nation – raping ,pillaging and taking over the grain belt homes- heart of the Nation.
        Coasts are inundated with radioactive, boiling hot water/tidal waves.

        “They” really dont they have spill one drop of BRICs blood.

        USA be Fat , Dumb, and oh so Gay, in general – which defines majority of todays military .

        Ripe we R, like summer Peachs.

        * Clue in social control heat mapping – See Seat availability in Ure town for The Sound of Freedom. Movie is booked out as far calendar allows in my home town, as well as surrounding towns. You have to go to the big IMAX muliplex in King of Prussia – they had a couple of tickets avail yesterday..

      • My uncle lived in a house in the middle of Santa Monica and died in it back in ’01 just before 9/11. We flew out twice to clean it out and I have fond memories of flying up until then. After that I’ve stayed away from air travel as much as possible. I think I even carried a pocket knife with me on the flights.

        It was a stucco exterior that had some quake damage to the outside but otherwise it was a good, solid house designed by an architect who originally built and lived in it. The story is a bit convoluted but he didn’t own it and when it was sold it was valued at between 8 and 9 hundred thousand so his estate didn’t get any of it. The people that bought it leveled it and built a 2 story mansion that went almost to the sidewalks that surrounded it, it was on a corner lot, and a wall surrounded it to boot. Don’t know who it was but these people had to have had some serious money back then and I’m sure the neighbor’s appreciated the huge increase in their property values as a result.

  12. “…what to buy today….– and a new office chair.”

    Beat you by a week. My old office chair went flat. Gas shock elevator failure. Last week’s infrequent 200 mile round trip over the mountain to the Costco warehouse jogged my memory as I walked past the furniture aisle. Found a nice cool mesh office chair for $99 with no shipping charges… if you don’t count the 200 miles. The cheap pizzas and roast chickens make up for some of that drive… and gas there is cheapest on the island.

    “Write when normal is in view again.”

    The twelfth of ‘never’?

    • When you assemble your next chair install a piece of PVC pipe to fit around/over the cylinder and cut the length of the PVC at the height that you would like your chair to remain at. I hate those flimsy shocks.

        • That is what was happening to my chair.. not wishing to disassemble the chair..I cut a 1 inch gap on one side. it then works as a snap ring..

  13. re: “Strive”
    feat. in the tracks of the Zundäpp KS750

    Folks,

    The BBC has their initial report out on a possible social media inspired hit against a former Russian sub commander. The alleged perp, a Ukrainian on a bike, is named.

    The April, 2022 Tech Crunch article interviewing the two co-founders of an ebike company is completely redacted. The December, 2022 Wikipedia entry for the company mentions one founder.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20220331210010/https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/31/co-founders-of-ukrainian-startup-delfast-discuss-navigating-through-a-crisis/

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delfast

    A question may surface for consideration. If one senses Jack, who is Lee?

    • re: Project 636 / Halibut
      feat. catch & release

      Folks,

      Perhaps with benefit of oversight by the BBC assistant editor of Monitering and Reality Check, the article concerning the assassination of the Russian naval captain has entered its third iteration. The name of the alleged perp has been deleted which matches the Russian “Kommersant” version whose owner sports a supposed worth of $19 billion. Authorities are searching for the culprit.

      By the way, “Kommersant” is also quoting the Bank of Russia today that the (Chinese) yuan component of their June (foreign?) exchange turnover was 39.8%…

  15. “Amazon press releases when Prime Day results come in. Yes, this is prime day –”

    well writing my eulogy..lol lol got my coating machine coming for candy and peanuts lol.. it was almost 30 percent off.. and only 25 percent all the others lol

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