Markets: Desperate Seeking Santa

With another weekend of bar-hopping with the Dancers and Prancers over, it’s back to work on the Street.  Santa is due to appear this morning, but will he crap out and call it good after the bell?

What last week’s market action was should be abundantly clear this morning:

It was the financial industry slamming Washington up against the wall and threatening to bring down the whole kit and caboodle if folks back there didn’t quickly pass the pork-ridden feral (sic) budget which unwinds Dodd-Frank and gives all kinds of new deals to the greedsters and their henchmen.

Already in the pre-open, almost two hours before the open, we could see Dow futures were up 100 and the price of crude oil had inches up toward the $59 level.

So is this the Santa Rally people have been so anxiously seeking?

Maybe.

But I wouldn’t bet on much of anything past the first hour today:  The Japanese market was down more than 1.5% last night, China down almost a percent, but in Europe, practice for Santa was well underway.

What we might see this week would be a bit of rally going into the holiday and why not?  The world hasn’t ended this year and the absence of Peace on Earth means the economy should do well next year.

Or maybe not:  Oil was down in the $57 range this morning and the Baltic Dry Index this morning dropped another 18-points to 845 which means 2008 kind of levels, so disaster in Q-1 ain’t off the table.

Hug a jolly old fat dude if you see him and beg for him to winter over. 2015 looks like disaster waiting to happen.

Another Survey to Ponder

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is out, but I’m not sure what-all is still made in ‘Merica anymore..

The December 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index dropped fourteen points to -3.6, its first negative reading in nearly two years. The new orders index also fell into negative territory, tumbling eleven points to -2.0, and the shipments index fell to -0.2. Labor market conditions were mixed, with the index for number of employees holding steady at 8.3, while the average workweek index declined to -11.5.

They have pretty little pictures over here, if you need a chart (otherwise, learn to make them in your head, it’s faster.  Start with simple histograms first to avoid brain loss.).

Also due this morning is the Industrial Product and cap. utilization data.,  But as for the mid-month report on consumer prices which once upon a time came out about now?  That will be out on Wednesday and I am banking on prices being down a lot because energy has collapsed in a heap.

The Fed holds their last meeting of the year starting tomorrow, so look for market reaction to whatever they do, along about Wednesday afternoon.

Stir-Fried Budget

Yessir, enough pork in the budget passed over the weekend to open a stir-fry joint.  All you need is the rice and some paper products.  Winners included farmers, lobbyists, tourism groups, lobbyists, and salty foods…oh, and lobbyists.

All of which is threatening to toss the democratic party into the blender, but why not?  Both parties have dirty hands when comes to keeping the public trust.

Don’t believe me?  Try on the new Gallup Poll which says faith in lawmakers is near historic lows…

A 57-year old Virginia lawmaker (and if I read the story right, attempting to boff a 17-YO staffer) is contemplating commuting to work from jail..

I’d say something about lawmakers and perverts, but that’d verge on redundant now, I guess.  Meantime, having never been arrested for anything, I guess I have no “sizzle” to offer either party so I’ll just stay in the great bent-over majority.

But just as soon as the corruption and bribery show up, maybe the carload of hookers, drug arrests, and some real pervy behaviors, too: then, and only then, will I feel genuinely qualified to run for office. 

Hell, I’m so honest I have my own social security card….

The Trouble with “Politically Correct”

Was brought into focus about half way into the third cup of coffee this morning as I came to the NY Daily News story about how a “U.S. Marine in Philippines charged with murder of Filipina transgender woman…”

You see the problem, right?  When someone refers to a “transgender woman” is that the starting gender of the victim or, is it the destination gender?

The hell of being an old reporter is that I miss some of these kinds of fine details and we want to make sure to get you the right story….so if you have a link to an authoritative source…I don’t know as this is covered in Common Core, or not – but nothing would surprise me, anymore.

It goes in the same box with “turn down the air conditioning” which is open to interpretation as to what it temperature results from such an action.

The Sony Hacks

There may be a new kind of high-level terrorism going on – as details of the massive Sony hack keep leaking out.

As you may be aware, the Guardians of Peace (GOP) are threatening a Christmas Surprise and the studio, in turn is asking media not to report some of the details of the story.

Where it gets really interesting is if you take it as a template and consider that it could reveal a new kind of corporate warfare…and if that’s the case, the world has just changed.

We’ll get into barriers to entry in the Coping section here in a minute, but please consider what happens to the ‘net if all of a sudden, most web content is hacked and all online business records become fair game.

End of the web, anyone?  Spend it while you can says the JOFM (jolly old fat man)… Did I mention Bitcoin is back under $350?

I hear there are something like 400 crypto currencies out there now – and more coming along all the time.  It’s like at the end of Tulip Mania trying to roll out nasturtiums as the Next Big Thing.

Barriers to entry is what causes price to rise, not the number of zeros on a piece of paper.  Remember, I’m a multi-trillionaire in Zimbabwean bank notes…

Is the whole world on crack?