Coping: With the Reality of Demographic Change

Warm up the coffee, mama, got us a lot of “big picture” strategic thinking to cover this morning.  Starting with the borders, but as you’ll see, the inquiry leads to Vietnam, China, Iraq,and  – for good measure – the return of Peak Oil.  To begin…

A number of emails have arrived in response to this week’s comments on the “war with Mexico” that we’re presently losing.  It’s a topic covered in additional depth in Wednesday’s report.  In that, I explain how the whole business process/workflow analysis of presidents Bush and Obama give Mr. Obama about a 50% effectiveness compared to Bush on total inbound from Mexico and South America.

Demographic (the age, sex, racial factors) of population are constantly changing.,  Small variations in birth rates, relocations within a country, and so forth, are an everyday reality.  But when so-called “leaders” ignore law, well, that’s another item.

Reader CJ opines:

Twenty plus years ago when I was volunteering in the local public school system although I was homeschooling my daughter and yet son attended… the librarian told me (I was working on a database entry for her) in 2025 whites would be a minority with Spanish speaking persons equal to or exceeding Blacks (local and from other countries) yet with Asians in the mix. Whites are a minority at the school now. The school district is a first ring suburb from Minneapolis, MN. This area started growing after the war in 1948.

My neighborhood is as such, whites as the rule own their home, with some moving out/dying and renting homes to Mexicans, Blacks, Asians (mostly Hmong and Vietnamese. Though some non white are homeowners in the area, it is not the norm. Presently there are 3 homes on this average city block that are rentals. 35 years ago (we “bought” (LOL- i know the deed says we are tenants, taxes prove it) our home in 1979), there were zero rentals, with only white couple “homeowners”. Then about 20 yrs ago, women bought. Presently, 3 homes owned by women and one male lives alone. Throughout the past 10 yrs, a lot of blacks come and gone, but not solid families where you could tell there was a “marriage”… A black couple bought the home behind us a few yrs back, married after they moved in and then lost the home in just 2 yrs time. We think he was spending his wage on pot. heh

You’re also spot on with learning Spanish and Chinese. Though odd but true… one major corp my husband worked for, (although they have billions in cash, they “laid off” numerous “old” people around the country in 2012) young people left to work in China teaching English – no skills required…. I guess we’ll be seeing a lot more Chinese arriving too…

The once called “The CIA World Fact Book”, has their pulse upon the business model they’re creating. As long as we play along as slaves, not creating controversy to what they have in mind, we get what we deserve, their rule.

Which gets us to the whole mention of border enforcement because borders are where wars happen.  Revolutions in capitals, wars along borders.  Pick anywhere you want and the process is always the same.  Whether it’s the middle east, or whatever…the border is what matters.

Customs and Border Patrol, which last year had so much resource that they could surround innocent American pilots, flying their own airplanes hundreds of miles from our borders, can’t seem to figure out how to catch people “walking in.”

One of the eye popping parts I cited in the Peoplenomics analysis was the “apprehension rate.” 

As the apprehension data shows, the number of illegals has been dropping like a free-falling safe since George Bush left office.  And, while in a similar part of his presidency, the Bush-managed CPB apprehended over a million illegals, the Obama-managed CPB apprehended almost 2/3rd’s less:  a mere 420,789.

The appalling part is cost analysis.  I won’t go into details on that (refer to our in-depth report) but the critical sources are the CPB official yearbook numbers, over here and then crunch in the Table 39 data from Homeland Security over here.

The only missing piece is then the CPB budget and by the time you’re done, your hair ought to be on fire and your hands shaking with rage.

Yes, despite bullshit and spin out of Washington, this is the real reason that Eric Cantor got tossed out on his ear.  People  – Americans of all races and colors (which is a good thing) – have some innate ability to sense when they are being sold down the river.  And the data, not just a gut feeling, is that is what is in play now.

Despite huge increases in CPB budgets, and did I mention so-called ‘high tech’ equipment? The rank and file are still unable to really do their job because of “rules from on  high” that all come from the safety of 1,510 miles from the border.

Eric Cantor is not the only one out of touch.  We living in a country where congress has as 10% approval rating but the re-election rate for incumbents is 80%.

In marijuana use was decriminalized, and ifs CPB would focus on border crossers, rather than innocent private pilots simply exercising their licensed rights to fly, this might remain a country longer.

But I’m not betting on anything yet.  The data says I’d be a fool to do so; which is a crying shame in itself.

So the Next Borders to Watch

Unable to notice the problems along our own border, the Obama administration will no doubt preoccupy itself with whipping up the public mood over the expansionist moves of China.

The Big Picture of world is that thanks to low interest rates, we’re in a blow-off top, we have screwed up our southern border, we need a huge enemy, so look over the next couple of years for the slow demonization of China.

Slow, goes the flow, though, because we need them to keep buying our paper.  Still, sources tell me to keep an eye on the contested oil islands and Vietnam…

George, My memory and opinions follow:

First, you might want to check the Wikipedia entry for the Chinese invasion of Vietnam 17 Feb 1979. PAVN retirees were resettled in the northern border area facing China following the US Vietnam conflict ending in 1975. Although massive Chinese forces poured across the border on a long front with some 29 points of attack, those battle hardened Viet retirees were in the militia that came out to resist before regular forces could arrive and engage.

29 days later, having “sufficiently chastised” the Vietnamese, the Chinese went home. Casualty and prisoner counts suggest the Chinese had the greater losses. Chinese C & C of large units and logistics were found severely wanting at the time, and they deployed no air power, only Infantry, Armor and Artillery.

Vietnamese forces followed them back to the border, encountering the results of a Chinese “scorched earth” withdrawal and the carnage of the battlefield.The usual diplomatic face saving agreements followed over the next few years. What has changed today? Chinese forces have better equipment, but still have little experience maneuvering large forces. Their logistics have improved, given the ability they have shown in responding to massive natural disasters in south and southwest China, but the supporting road net capacity may not have improved sufficiently, the Hanoi – Kunming Highway notwithstanding. Vietnamese forces built up the border area after the Chinese left, forming”iron garrisons”, an improvement on the status pre 1979, but have not upgraded their equipment as much.

In the defense, this equipment advantage may not be as critical (as we have experienced as well).Given the historical war fighting experiences and doctrine of both countries, 1 – 3 weeks to “resolve” the problem is much too optimistic .Perhaps as a rebuke, the Chinese could shift their tactics to attacking key nodes from the air and not entering Vietnamese territory, but that is not a technique which has much staying power in the US experience. The Vietnamese are unlikely to be forced to the diplomatic table to acknowledge Chinese claims by it. On the other hand, I doubt the Chinese could duplicate the US sweep across Iraq in Vietnam today.

No, this will be a longer event if it breaks out. Politics and oil form a slippery slope, as we shall see.

And, without a doubt, the other border to watch will be the one of Iraq, which we are discovering, as noted my consigliere in a conference this week, we didn’t really ‘win’ at all.

Without boots on the ground, the US is likely to see the militant side of Sunni Islam (Wahabi/al Qaeda) sweep into the Syria area, and thus, expand the militancy into an almost complete encircling of Israel.

Which leaves only one question lingering:  Is John McCain crazy for supporting the western front attack on Syria?  When we could see an al Qaeda sweep of Iraq in a matter of a few weeks or months? 

Clearly, this week’s attacks have left the caretaker government of Iraq in a terrible position and they are now asking for US air and drone strikes  (whatever we can throw in) as they see the potential, too.

While I appreciate that our president and his staff may think all Muslims are nice people, they have forgotten that Adolph Hitler was raised Catholic. 

My conclusion, from the bit of history I’ve studied, is that the relationship between “religion” and how a person “ticks” inside is large coincidental.  Nuts and power-freaks come in all sizes and religions.

Meantime, Here Comes Peak Oil

So while we have all these clusterfoobies on various borders around the world, we’re starting to see reports around the the media of problems in the Barnett Shale play of problems from fracking.

Not the kind of geophysical problems like up in Quakelahoma, but things like well water catching fire and leftovers like that.

Our resident expert, Oilman2, is just back from running a rig in Louisiana and says this mess in the Barnett was just a matter of time…

The Barnett was fracked mercilessly, with 2 & 3 stage frack jobs normal.

The shallow Barnett wells, which are less expensive, run at 6500-7000′ depth. This is NOT a lot of geologic overburden when fracking. On top of that, there is another old shallow gas bearing zone above the Barnett, which was depleted decades back.

My guess is that vertical fractures generated during aggressive frac jobs allowed gas to migrate into the depleted Strawn formation – at 4000′. This puts high pressure gas into an old low pressure reservoir, where the caprock may not be able to handle the higher gas pressure…

It’s fine fracking below 10,000′ for now, but for future generations, who knows? Only thing that might stop this craziness is Ogallala or Niagara aquifer contamination, but by then it’s too late.

My advice for preppers?? Farmers? Cattlemen?  Get the frack out of fracking plays. Owning your mineral rights will not help you if others allow them to drill on their property.

And did you see where Bobby Jindal made it illegal to sue O&G companies in Louisiana…??

Yessir, the finest government money can buy. Mark Twain is laughing in his grave with us…or crying at how things never change.

His advice to anyone who is thinking about doing a little thinking, is that you want to be a long ways from anywhere that fracking is in the wind.  50-miles is a good start, but the more/further away, the better.

This morning’s takeaway?

We’re giving away our future to people who wander in.  We have political leadership that is a “sandwich short of lunch.”  We are about to get distracted by “madness on bordering” but if you look behind the headlines in Vietnam and in the Spratly’s and other Chinese expansions, they’re just trying to line up energy because everyone who is not a complete idiot knows that Peak Oil will be returning and when it does, we’ll be in a heap o trouble.

And if that’s not bad enough, we’re busily poisoning the groundwater of America.

I told you at the outset that this would be a serious overview on a strategic level.  But I didn’t say it would be pretty.

Maybe some of those H1-B visa whiz kids we’re importing, instead of teaching Americans,; will be able to solve the problems for us.  Like to thank the politically correct folks in education for scuttling industrial arts and focusing on social/sexual/political correctness (mind control)  issues instead of the three-R’s.  Big help there, you betcha.  So thanks a heap. 

313 million people, staggering education debt and we have to bring in H1-B visa kids because we’re that freaking dumb?  BS never smelled so bad.  Make the corps pay a livable wage to Americans and stop this flow in cheap/exploitable labor!

The facts argue that the problems have gotten ahead of us and we’re simply too stupid as a country to be able to bootstrap ourselves back to our former glory.

More tomorrow…when I promise to be out of this data-induced funk.  Write when you break even…and what ever happened to our woo-woo reports?  Woo seems to have gone dry!


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George Ure
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