Complexity Impodes

Here’s a dirty secret about the Big Bang:  It doesn’t go on for ever…and eventually it reverses.  Same for stock bubbles.  The question that damns us all is “When???”

And therein lies today’s modest projections of coming attractions due to COVID.  Reversal, sadly, is a good distance ahead.

For millions of years, life developed on This Old Rock and didn’t need unsustainable power plants, the Babel-2 of social media, and a leech-class to “motivate” other people to work – enabling the leaches to steal their unearned pieces.  No, we got along without that, just fine.  About time to reinvent in that direction, methinks.

As the markets continued to unwind this week, we began to make lists of entire industries and sectors that may  never recover.  As hypercomplexity fails, it could dramatically change how modern life is lived, until the Internet itself – not just the users – peter out.

First though, a stack of pancakes in our ChartPack and the “rack ’em up like cord-wood” in the virus data.   

Earphones ready?  Podcast #13 is online here.

Binoculars out? We begin “seeing past disaster” and bracing for the Great American Rethink ahead…

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George Ure
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40 thoughts on “Complexity Impodes”

  1. 3/13 Friday evening on EarthCam Times Square- Key West- Las Vegas strip all very quiet- I would imagine Friday night it would be filled with tourist but very quiet— hibernation-

  2. Your right George the leaches consisting of the business,banking and wall street sector who have made billions off of state socialism, free loaders who have destroyed the country must now be destroyed themselves!!!

    • exactly.. People try to lay it all on the few minimum wage people.. but the minimum wage sector is created so that the leaches so they can gain more.. what if we didn’t blast the hell out of every country that they want to raid and pillage.. who pays .. the workers of our country do.. they lay their lives down and give their tax dollars so some yeahoo in another country can bribe and gift their wishes.. who sufferes.. everyone that is working.. it has been a cycle since the geginning of time to.. how many what was it that socrates said on wars and greed…it is better that the philosopher-kings rule unenthusiastically or else they will become greedy for power which leads to tyranny.

  3. G – it B time to start HARDENING ourselves to this nasty weaponized Virus.

    On the ground – 1st hand accounts coming out of Wuhan prior to Lockdown – Dr’s were administering 22mg’s Vit. C per lb Body weight.

    I would add daily Vit. D3 daily. Chaga Mushroom for the HIV component of Virus (2 HIV -“spikes”/protiens).

    What do have that is old, near end of useful life..truck battery, tires, I-Phone – Purchase now – before supplies run out and are NOT resupplied.

    COVID-19 does not produce a Epi-genetic Response in the human body – due to added (3) “mutations” SARS/MERS/HIV. This means NO Anti- Bodies are Produced by body – therefore Re-Infection is 99.99 % Fatal.

    Small screen – pinhole camera like video (s) from Wuhan prior to lockdown out on TOR/Onion show Mass Movements of Military Trucks (CCP) shipping Ascorpic Acid to Secure Warehouses – they know it is a Bioweapon – Ascorpic Acid is being used for Decon – it is a big clue-key to this mess.

    If U were going to design a Bio-weapon to attack your enemy – who/what demographic would want to KILL 1st?
    Answer: Military Aged Males – guess who is dropping like flies upon Re-Infection?

    Armour Up Sheeps – this thing is not going away anytime soon (years).

    Markets – Coot is trading in and out of SPY Strangle (s) – Buying Out of the Money Puts and Calls – Blow Out Wrong side as Market moves against the Puts or the Calls – slowly Cash out Winning side. Slow cash out of Wining side covers Loss/Cost of Blowing Out Losing Side. Using profits to “nibble on” Ounces in the ground Precious Metals Miners & Streamers, and build Cash position = 40/60 Ounces/Cash

    -now to secure a small warehouse and start accumulating things that will be needed in future but unable to get from China..Light Bulbs/Batteries/Tires/IPhones..

    Caution – if you have been living sheepishly these last several years – time is now to Armour Up – your body, your home&Family – in case the “Wolves” be coming..

    • Started hearing rumors about food panics locally at work yesterday. Went to a favorite warehouse grocery store last night, to pick up a few things, and eyeball the damage. Talked to one of the cleaning crew: “They trashed the place” he said. That was an accurate assessment. What was bought was crazy. The bananas were 100% casualty, but no one bought apples. Most of the the jerky or summer sausages had not been touched. I stayed away from the canned goods. There were still panic-stricken types prowling the canned goods, a__-wipes, and disinfectant aisles at 8:30PM. I saw my first shopper with a mask. A guy dressed in his work Nomex coveralls wearing a half-respirator with what looked like a chemical cartridge was piling crap into two carts. I didn’t have the heart to tell him that was the wrong cartridge. While his young girlfriend (who didn’t have on a mask) appeared to be laughing at him, she was assisting nonetheless.

      I would expect most of G____’s readers have a substantial stock of supplies. Don’t forget to stock supplies needed to process foods for storage at a later date. The resupply source may turn out to be local, BYOB (bring your own buckets). At some point, regardless of your resources, you will have to resupply.
      Safecastle has a page which lists stock on hand. I have concluded that it would be best to get out the wallet and put some protein in the pantry.
      My garage is bigger than the house, so it has always been my warehouse. I have been buying some new containers to keep things neat as the supply effort progresses.

    • ” This means NO Anti- Bodies are Produced by body – therefore Re-Infection is 99.99 % Fatal. ”

      If NO antibodies were produced by the body, one would NOT recover from the original infection!! CRITICAL THINKING, here, please! Meanwhile, while we wait 12-18 months for a viable vaccine, DARPA has begun work on a ‘Bioshield’ to boost immunity in individuals. Could be ready in 3 months. It is made from the b-cells of RECOVERED individuals that are cloned. Think: “Antibody Booster”… but mostly just THINK…. and critique the disinfo you see.

      • UR welcome ..SARS1 – NO Vaccine – proven IMPOSSIBLE.

        ..Might try thinking critically on this..It is a Protien.

        Corona Virus presents – body reponds – only to meet SARS1/MERS/HIV protien “spike” –

        Without respirators, anti viral treaments ect – Chinese/Iranians/Italians dont/wont RECOVER from COVID19 – nor will peeps with compromised immune systems.

        Millions DEAD Hubei

        We are still on Y axis/bladeof hokey stick of this thing – Good Luck!

      • I know what ascorBic acid is — just had 5 keys of it (American sourced and made) delivered from Bulk Supplements.

        It is the

        ascorPic acid that has me mystified.

        If that is a simple typo, that’s cool, but if it’s a low-ph compound of which I’m not familiar (and should be), then I want to know more about it…

    • Crash
      How often did the Chinese Dics administer the Vit C? Daily? Hourly?
      I am taking that amount daily already al ok ng with 15k units D3, 50mg Zinc, 200mcg Selenium, and a strong multivitamin.
      Is that enough?

      Coop who follows this and works alongside me in Chem demil is a thorough follower of the chinese mushrooms. Sent me this video link.
      “Mushooms as Medicine” with Paul Stamets at exponential medicine.
      Coop is taking a mixture of mushrooms and has lab books full of his records.
      Also good info.

      Coop are you looking?

  4. Dr. Drew Blasts Media for Looking to ‘FAN THE FLAMES OF PANIC’ with Coronavirus Coverage. TV personality Dr. Drew Pinsky told Fox News he thinks the establishment media are intentionally inciting fear over the spread of the coronavirus from China.

    While he said the coronavirus is not the flu, he cautioned Fox viewers that they should approach the coronavirus in the same manner in which they would prepare to prevent contracting influenza.

    Tom Hanks symtoms are mild, & he is type 2 diabetic. It has flu like symptoms, it is not the Bubonic Plague. It is a mild virus. Most Washington State deaths were in 1 nursing home. The news doesn’t tell you that. The Old, infirmed need to be concerned as with the flu.

    Remember, the good times will eventually return & all will be forgotten. Technology is still on schedule for a 37 Trillion dollar bonanza. AI, Internet of Things, Robotics, 5G, Blockchain, etc. A recession can stall it, but not stop it.

    • Fox news and Dr, Drew says it(propaganda) all, but what neither is telling you that this is just the start of it for still has months to go,no tech. is not going to saver our sorry ass for it takes years for new drift down to the working class.

      Now Trump was a few days short and a few dollars short as he should have been on this back on January 15th when it was brought to their attention, but instead played it down so it would’nt effect his re-election bid.As The Saker calls him the idiot-in-chief and that’s just what he’s turned out be as the REAL economy has been tanking ever since he took office, its only been the steady,fake news coming out of Washington which has kept it going on free money from the Fed and Central bank.No in the future you will look back on these times as the good old days never to come back again.!!!

      • If’fn y’all hate FoxNews so much, quit frickin’ watching and citing it.

        Trump had formed his coronavirus task force before January 15th and was completely on top of it, save for trusting the Chinese for viable test kits.

        ‘Sorry you were too caught up in “Pelosi watch syndrome” to notice…

    • I’ll be 78 1n May, and in good health.
      I don’t anticipate living to 105.
      What is the time duration for your comments?

      • 1942 – Recovery, maximum 1 year. Our new society has a short memory. Our economy is still strong, it will recover.

  5. When a city of 11 million, Wuhan, China, pollutes their whole city with Coronavirus, it is like sending out a swarm of killer bees on the world. Since China is the manufacturing hub of the world, killer bees will be visiting your country. Wuhan got the virus under control which was the worst case area, so will the rest of the world get it under control. Wash your hands often.

  6. Based on 5 minute charts, it seems the best trading time is the last half hour. 3:30 – 4:00 pm EST. Several times I bought long early, market tanks, then the last half hour saves me. I have made more $ being long 3x ETF’s than short. Something about being short scares me, probably because it is a new way of investing for me. Trading exhausts me, so a half hour a day is perfect.

  7. My business is as usual this weekend. Already have had 30 showings on a $2.8 million home that just hit the market yesterday. Smart money knows that this market will rebound. Smart money also is diversified and one week of stock market craziness didn’t kill their finances.

    Here’s what we will see going forward. Many Bay Area bio-techs with the help from researchers from Australia are at the forefront of the AI/virus vaccine shift. . They are using AI to turbocharge and simulates the human immune system..thus enabling it to be more effective at picking out new compounds that strengthen the immune system.

    We will also see a shift in eating habits. Please…I want to throw up every time I see that Carl’s Jr. Commercial with a huge hamburger topped by a half inch thick piece of a fried cheese wheel. Same with the KFC commercial of a glazed donut chicken sandwich.WTF? This is the stuff that really compromises ones immune system.

    Also…human touch is and always has been an issue with food…especially produce. I am already seeing a lot more home grown gardens…everywhere…even in urban centers with rooftops…many municipalities in the hills surrounding the Bay Area are allowing limited chicken condos…with health regs in place of course…

    This sets up a battle for more robotics. Less human touch the better right? I watched the movie Contagion last night and although it’s Hollywood sensationalism…it points out just how much human touch there is in the world. Makes you want sanitize very time you touch anything out there.

    At least this is the perception. My best client is an immunologist for UCSF in San Francisco and he said too much sanitization also leaves us vulnerable to viruses as well. Our bodies are equipped to build immunity against infectious diseases. We let those defenses become complacent, then our defenses weaken. There is a balance..or we will be constantly dependent on vaccines for defense…or maybe that’s what the pharmaceutical/bio-tech industry wants????

    • “Smart money knows that this market will rebound. Smart money also is diversified and one week of stock market craziness didn’t kill their finances.”

      LOL it isn’t the smart money that everyone has to worry about……

      People that stall the velocity of money .. will always have the number.. similar to having a number on BC.. its a number.. the real worry is the 130 give or take million people that require the velocity of money or numbers to continue..If that stalls it isn’t rebuildable by those that live paycheck to paycheck.. we are in the catagory…That is where the death spiral will begin.. the dishwasher still has to live.. the store owner still has his expenses.. if the customers stall it will overflow.. and everyone will be affected..
      In Germany.. that happened during the Weimer depression.. and what did it do.. it opened the door for Adolph to get in power.. and we know what happened to the smart money people then..
      If someone had a clue in DC rather than running off to play at some lobbyist convention or what ever.. they would realize that this is a major concern and actually stay to do something to keep the situation contained and survivable….

  8. Blast from the past:

    I saw this and couldn’t help but chuckle. Obama got a pass on the recession based on this exact statement. Everyone shrugged. Those that shrugged, seem to be fixated on political points this week, as Trump says:

    “No, I don’t take responsibility at all,” he said about the delays. “Because we were given a set of circumstances.”

    The people making politics out of this, stfu, regardless of party, regardless of woulda-coulda-gotcha politics.. many will die.

    • “The people making politics out of this, stfu, regardless of party, regardless of woulda-coulda-gotcha politics.”

      They can’t. One of my favorite pundits said yesterday (paraphrased): “If you are talking about the coronavirus, and you begin your sentence with either “Republican” or “Democrat” you are a jerk, and in the wrong — just stop…”

  9. I understand some entrepreneurs are buying up toilet paper stock, masks and gloves from stores and selling on Ebay for multiple markup. Wonder if they are doing it with baby formula too.

    This is the saddest statement on mankind. Hopefully a special corner in hell awaits them.

  10. George, another great podcast. We paranoid’s love your rantings. You have a unique perspective. Krusteaz light & fluffy pancakes are the best. Philips 65″ for $278 at Walmart. Look forward to hearing the Major next week. Does this mean Trump will be President for life?

  11. The COVID-19 is just part of the equation. Panics, systemic breakdown, bad margin investing and old fashioned two-legged predators are every bit as dangerous as a virus. If you get a chance to drop in on the aftermath of a food panic, it might be educational. Be careful about walking into one in progress. And above all, stay wary.

  12. Some years ago (when I was far younger and far better looking), I decided to rest my career in IT for about 3 years and after seeing a documentary (made by Carnival) on life on a cruise ship from the crew perspective, I decided to work on cruise ships. Through consistent badgering of the Royal Caribbean recruiter for Purser staff, I secured a job as an Assistant Purser on the old MS Viking Serenade out of LA (at the time). I also worked for Carnival and NCL as cruise staff before my short cruise career came to an end. So, here are some observations that I have on the viability of the cruise industry from an insiders perspective.

    First, the real ‘profit’ in cruises comes from ‘onboard revenue’. Casinos, alcohol, bingo, premium food, shore excursions, ships stores, premium activities, etc. The idea is simple: fill the ship to capacity and operate 24\7 except for needed ship repair. That’s why cruises are typically deeply discounted right before sailing if all the berths are not full. Also, the second principle of cruise lines: cheap labor. Hire Americans only for Purser and Cruise staff where speaking native english is very helpful. Hence, most any American based cruise ship has probably 90% or more foreign staff. You can see the immediate logistical and financial problems when a ship must stay in port for a week or even a month! No passengers: no revenue, but can you just send a crew of a 1,000 or more home? Keep them in port on a ship for a month?? Horribly expensive, AND think of a ship in dock as a very expensive hotel room. You don’t get to park the ship there for free! Ship berths are at a premium and very expensive.

    Conclusion: Cruise lines are screwed unless the ‘crisis’ is a very short one. And cruise lines tend to be very levered. The only big cash holding maybe in the owners (think Mickey Aronson) pockets and not on the company books. Oh well, it was a great gig for 3 years! Thank you Lewdo Malave.

  13. Re: Pensions.
    Texas is the only state I’ve heard of that made it a point to have its Texas Retirement System invest in gold AND build its own repository for it. That being said, I also read sometime last year that our retirement system, while being in better shape than most others, is only 80% funded. I’ve wrestled mightily with the idea of taking all my interest out of TRS but, to date, it’s stayed in place. As an asset the only way I can see how the system would use gold is to slowly sell it off as it appreciates but once it’s gone – it’s gone. Just like you said, George, you can only spend it once and the dollars I get, if and when I do, are going to be severely depreciated as well. Perhaps there’s some hope in leasing it out but I believe that game is long over. The other possibility is trading it for the new currency when that happens. But, either you have it or you don’t and when it’s gone the game is over.

  14. Hawaii has two more virus cases, bringing the total to 4 now. Visiting couple flew in on Hawaiian Airlines visiting Kauai island have tested positive and are now in isolation on Kauai. No indication of ‘community spread’ in the islands as yet. Airlines & health department furiously tracking other passengers and contacts with these new cases of virus.

    And still the cruise ships come a-docking in the islands. State has urgently petitioned the Federal DOT to ban cruise ships docking in Hawaii. It will probably take a proven cruise ship ‘spreader’ here to make that happen. Damn Reactive instead of Proactive federal bureaucracy.

    Hawaiian Airlines wasn’t specific about which routes, but has said they have scaled back operations 10%… so far.

  15. global plandemic, US state of emergency, 20,000 US troops to Europe for an “exercise” WTF is habbening

    It is Trumps fault. Orangeman bad. So say the talking heads. CNN, MSNBC, Washedup Post and NoWhereTimes
    He said, to the press, as he pointed to his top military brass,”you know what this is? It is the STORM”,,,”you’ll see!”

    I thought the Covid-19 had everyone at a stand still, worldwide. Guess not the Punishers

    got TP? I got popcorn,,,ssshhhhh, we coming to the good parts of the movie

    • Why did the President of the U.S. give a very important indoor press conference while wearing a baseball cap?

      Back in the ’80’s, these huge military exercises were called REFORGER and held every year. My guess is some general was nostalgic for the old days…

  16. Sorry if I’m being a super annoying Mr. Ure but I want to know, will there be a market somewhere in aviation in the future? GA, Airlines (lol), Private Jets, airports, engines, building them, airways, NAVAID’s, etc.? Any ideas? I know I sent an email but I would like your advice on this. And also help with a transition plan going from what we are now to what is coming. But I want to do what I love and make money with the new shifts coming but not sure how to approach it or if it is a lost cause.

  17. “We’d buy one of those GEM-size large golf-cart things for trips into town on back roads if they were legal…and using super lightweight materials, daylight use only, they could save a bundle of energy and be cheaper to buy and maintain.”

    They are road-legal in many towns & cities in the Midwest, and if lighted, can be driven after dark. I believe the town or township is the regulating authority — dunno if registration as a MV is required but I suspect not. In a lot of places, all I see is a SMV triangle or blinking lights, like the Amish buggys…

    “End of Live Concerts? We don’t know how Ticketmaster will fare, but we are pretty much certain our (casino) Beach Boys show will be canceled.”

    I’d be okay if TM went T.U. I have heard of TM fees as high as $38 on a $60 event, which is WAY past stupid. I haven’t gone to a show in two years, but when I have, I now try to hit events at schools which have their own box office. ‘Saw a couple concerts at Interlochen (Traverse City, Michigan — first time I was ever in the town) a few years back. Interlochen is the school from which Jewel Kilcher, Peter Yarrow, and Norah Jones (among many others) are alums, and it is considered, by musicians at least, the best American high school Conservatory west of Juilliard. It was refreshing, paying $60 for a $60 ticket. I saved money, even having to find lodging.

  18. HAWAII UP 2 MORE CASES… 6 TOTAL NOW. One more case found on Maui, now in isolation.  And one more case confirmed in Honolulu on Oahu island… no details on that one.

    Patients #3 & 4 isolated on Kauai were reckless spreaders!  They arrived on Maui (United Airlines) with sniffles and went to urgent care there.  Flu test there was negative so they ignored it.  Days later flew interisland on Hawaiian Air to Kauai and got worse.  Upon going to the Kauai hospital and grilled more thoroughly it was “Oh… by the way… we were notified we were exposed to a case back on the mainland before we left! ”  Damn irresponsible idiot spreaders!!

    Another worrisome case is an Airforce woman in Colorado.  She spent three weeks on Oahu attending medical seminars (!) and on the flight home to Colorado she started with sniffles.  It got worse as she got home and finally went to the hospital where she tested positive.  So she definitely caught the virus on Oahu-Honolulu… likely attending a crowded military medical seminar here.

    So it’s likely we have community spread here.  No cases on the Big Island yet where I am.

    So far we are on track for case loads doubling every four days.  Expect more shortly.  Statewide testing capacity expanding on all islands.  Big Island will be the last, planned for Tuesday in Kona and Hilo.

    And still the cruise ships come a-docking!!

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