Clone of ’29: Circuit Breaker Monday?

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We have been in such a Bubble, for so long, that no one seems to appreciate how close to a 1929 style Collapse we are likely skirting.  And if may have everything to do with the growing risk of global war. Which the Powers that Be hold as an ace card to be played when their financial machinations blow up and the economy needs a complete reset.

We have known, of course, that PTB proxies were already being set up for action when the World Economic Forum (WEF) began building a public profile.  As is typical, when things collapse, someone (among the PTB) will already have an “angle to play” in order to profiteer off your pain and suffering.  Was it ever not so, huh??

OK Down to Business

Japan was in the crapper overnight.  It fell 12.4 percent and about 4,4oo-odd points.  Since the Nikkei 225 is at a similar number to our Dow, imagine a trading day where the market falls and, well, doesn’t stop.

That kind of thing could be close. Because as we have written for months now, when the present trend channel breaks, it’s a long way to fall.  Have a look at how our Aggregate Index is performing.

As you can see, the pre-open futures are pointing to a smack-down through the top of a very long-term trend channel.  We shouldn’t get there directly, however.  The way that waves of selling typically work, when they bust the long-term (green) trend channel, is they will fall to almost the broken channel middle.  Then they will rally a bit.

From there – as things roll along, we might see a mini-rally down around the lower trend channel and even a rally back up to the mid-channel by Labor Day.  But, after that? All bets will be off because we may be in the Replay of 1929 scenario that we have so carefully tracked on the Peoplenomics.com subscriber side.

The Elliott Wave Discussion

Quite doggedly, I’ve clung to the idea that we really should have collapsed the stock bubble in 2021.  For, in November of that year everything was “set.”  We were in a vulnerable position, the public debt was already piling up, and it seemed all the pieces along with a faltering political system were in place.  This is shown in our 1929 comparison work where the three light green boxes are where I estimate the “actual” wave counts should be.

To my (not so good, anymore) eyes, it looks like the “normal count” of a long wave econ advance likely did wrap up in the fall of ’21. But the financial Powers in the G20 and the Fed were smart enough – on the way down – to hype the hell out of things and get an X-Wave going.

We could see the X-wave pretty clearly when our “entrainment” with the 1929 market decline (which was large, sure, but a “normal” affair) began to implode.

So, the light blue box in this view suggests that a 1-2,1-2, for a I, then a normal II, III, IV, and V rolled out by late ’21.  Then spotting the potential collapse, all the stops came out. The upside (likely X-wave) was the result.

We will get into some of the finer points of entrainment, but you can certain see the “self-similarity zones at either end of this chart and where the Big Divergence in the Middle could be seen.

Breakers, Breakers

American market circuit breakers are set to pop like this, according to one trading firm website:

  • Circuit breaker #1: If the SPX falls 7% below the previous day’s close before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading stops for 15 minutes. If the SPX falls 7% after 3:25 p.m. ET, trading will not stop.  (Maybe today-g)
  • Circuit breaker #2: If the SPX falls 13% below the previous day’s close—before 3:25 p.m. ET—trading stops for 15 minutes.Then: If the SPX falls 13% at or after 3:25 p.m. ET, trading will not stop.
  • Circuit breaker #3: If the SPX falls 20% below the previous day’s close, trading stops for the remainder of the day, regardless of what time it is.

Knowing this – not trading advice or checked for math errors – you might want to be aware of these levels:

Yes, this would be a nosebleed decline. Keep your mind softly focused on the present-day reality.

  • America has an unpayable $35-trillion-dollar debt.
  • Both presidential hopefula (and their veeps) are not “the Best of America”
  • And the Powers are angling for wars to cover up the (still just pending) financial crime of the century.

I’m not even going to bother playing this one.  It’s likely only the first major down which should be followed by a major  bounce and we’ll just sit back and watch the jangled nerves.

Crypto Collapsing

One more thing to be aware of: When we looked, BTC was getting its ass kicked, as well:

51,372.20 USD     –6,765.90 (11.64%) (so far) today

Out of an abundance of class (and not trying to be an “I told you so” we won’t rub the Ponzi-clone army’s nose in it.  (That will come later, if $30,000 is breached and that’s possible because a very normal governmental reaction to exceptional financial stress is to “call” competing financial instruments when the (pardon this) shit is hitting the fan.  So, just like both gold and silver were called in the Great Depression, do you still think the government will be hands-off “private money”?  You sure must believe in the ethics and honesty of government to walk its talk.  We’re, um, a little more skeptical, thanks.

WW III’s Headless Headlines

Might want to have your last-minute prepping all done before the end of this week:  The WW III clock is ticking audibly in headlines like:

In Ukraine, things are somewhat less predictable as

Taiwan  is watching closely as 9 aircraft, and 9 Chinese ships played territorial poking games over the weekend. US Ally Scrambles Jets Against Chinese Aircraft | Miami Herald .China’s running drones that seem to be reporting back to a manned airborne command center.

Debby Does Florida: Hurricane Debby makes landfall over Florida’s Big Bend coast as Category 1 storm. We told you about that last week, so no surprises there.

Let’s Do Useless

See if any of this really matters in your life.

Show me the money: Musk Responds To Don Lemon Lawsuit, Cites “Series Of Impressively Insane Demands” | ZeroHedge

Maybe because nothing’s funny anymore? Vince Vaughn explains why good R-Rated comedies aren’t being made anymore (rumble.com)

And from our “You know it’s time for Alzheimer’s screening when…” department: Pelosi Wants New Addition To Mt. Rushmore: ‘You Could Add Biden’ (trendingpoliticsnews.com)

Um…do we need to do shots for breakfast?

At the Ranch: Doing What Matters

Ure is taking the quiet Monday I referred to over the weekend. Little big news, other than the whistling sound of a free-falling safe – going on.

Instead, I will be picking up meat, booze, ammo, more seeds, more gasoline, and everything else that seems useful when Depression odds are climbing.

This is not a time to be planning – of fixing to get ready to do something.  No sir, this is action time.  Trust you read Stu’s piece last week on Armageddon arriving? Or his Sunday post  CALLING IT EXACTLY – THE AGE OF DESOLATION?

Act accordingly, there will be no do-overs in WW III.

George@Ure.net

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George Ure
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47 thoughts on “Clone of ’29: Circuit Breaker Monday?”

  3. The cliche is cash is king in asset-bubble deflations, and there’s a reason for this.

    Note that Wall Street never recommends frugally piling up cash for a few years, as that generates no income for Wall Street, which thrives off the herd busily churning away capital chasing the latest hot rotation into bat guano futures, cobalt mines in Lower Slobovia, the Hydrogen economy, AI-powered robot pets, and so on.

    https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/the-great-unwinding-is-there-any

  4. Everything going down, sell everything, stocks, oil, gold, silver, Bitcoin… only thing up is U.S. Government bonds.

    “Mama Said” (The Shirelles)

    Mama said there’ll be days like this
    There’ll be days like this, mama said
    (Mama said, mama said)
    Mama said there’ll be days like this
    There’ll be days like this, my mama said
    (Mama said, mama said)

    • Momma also said 7 must die..

      -https://youtu.be/9V-vcXOpG9g

      ? is the hole deep enough ? deep enough to hold all the oily dark scheisse ? guess we will find out shortly, in the mean time falling knifes abound, stab lightly, less youse lose a Fingertip or worse.

      Hitting the beaches of new england ways this week- 2 docs getting married next Saturday , one being my Son. Weather does not seem to want to cooperate wit plans – so could be a drinking themed Vaca..

      * latest update on global homo khaos..just had funeral for friends Son, who Retired active duty in 2022.
      42 yr old born the year I went into Navy.

      * No cause of Death.

      Senior Chief petty Officer Joe Hayden enlisted 2001- served as special amphibious reconnaissance corpsman and special operations independent duty corpsman..notably working with NSWDevGrp. Joe left behind a beautiful Wife and 2 beautiful Daughters.

      ..it never ends – EVER

    • momma kammy said… how much difference can there be…
      lol lol you just have to go with the flow.. we were down here now we are going up here and we will be up here so we won’t be down there…
      https://babylonbee.com/news/drunken-kamala-mistakenly-picks-wrong-shapiro-for-vp

      https://youtu.be/SrWZ_XtgMg8?si=1JWflXm-wweRYEKQ
      I do like how she describes things.. it’s an extraordinary testimony to do something extraordinary to do something to testify to

      https://youtu.be/SrWZ_XtgMg8?si=1JWflXm-wweRYEKQ

  5. Makes me wonder when the Selective Service is gonna start selecting. From what I’ve seen that the military has to choose from, leaves me speechless. War zones aren’t exactly “safe spaces”. Guess they’ll give them a safety pin and send’em on their way.

    Bet the new hippies that evolve out of this will be chaotic as hell.

  6. George,

    5 August definitely represented a Nikkei black Monday. The ACWI 1 July 2024 6/13/13 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y fractal decay model predicts another on 12 August.

  7. Even the max 20 per cent breaker drop wouldn’t equal Oct.19,1987’s drop of 22.8.
    On that day,I went to an ear,nose and throat doctor.When I returned home,I thought that my eyes also needed examining.
    So,while entertaining,it still wouldn’t equal the GOAT.
    Now,2 days in a row may raise an eyebrow or two.

    • Biggest one day Market GAIN in my Life..so far.I was working at Specialist Post – PHLX options trading floor.
      Also best year income wise – as no kids at the time and duel incomes.
      I ended that day with a bladder infection- 1st and only one I ever had..due not taking a PISS all day till after the close.
      Peed pink and freaked the hel out!
      Called Doc, used to be able to call and talk to Ure doctor back in late 80’s, and he chuckled at me, plained what happened and sent in script for some antibiotics.

      • dam I just have to share this story.. as a kid they had these little tablets that you chewed in boot camp that turned your teeth red..that way they could tell how good you brushed your teeth..
        military judged duty stations by the percentage of women to men.. what they didn’t tell you is how many are gay.. so newbies asking where’s a good hot spot we would show them the hottest gay bar. for the deep drunks some of the guys would drop one of those in their beer..the next morning they would wake up freak out because it looked like they were peeing blood lol lol..
        back in my smart ass youth..
        the company comander spent one guy to pick up a gallon propwash told him not to come back until he got it.. ( air ) he was gone almost a week.. they was going to report him awol.. then he walked in with this tiny container with a commercial label on it .. prop wash .. and he said I am sorry but this was the biggest they had..they caught me with a box that was suppose to be a fragile scientific instrument.. ( bricks ) that I lugged around all day..

  8. Sean Davis
    @seanmdav
    ·
    10h
    It’s 10pm and the global financial markets are crashing. Do you know who your president is?
    https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1820296151502839892

    if Trump ain’t the one,,, why the hell did the deep state try and kill him?
    the Secret Service did not fail to protect him,,, they failed to kill him !
    the kid was a patsy who needed to be eliminated
    it was the first time for the SS to provide snipers since Trump left office!
    that rally was the first time CNN covered one!
    why did the camera man have his camera settings to catch a speeding bullet////or brains splattering out?
    they had a 2nd floor window overlooking the kid on the roof !!!
    sound recording show 3 different gun fires !!!
    Jfk and RFK all over again, but they missed
    they will try again
    they will have internet disruption on the election night
    they will not go out peacefully as they accussed Trump of not doing back in 2020

    • Truck is fueled up and LOADing – a FULL F-ing LOAD!

      No Ballz – NO BLUECHIPS. BTC is the prize. All else (Gold&Silver) will be “tied” to BTC in near future. G&S will be the inflation/inflatable Variable tied to hard 21million CoinZ.

      True owners of the FUTURE will be holding some..

  12. Forgot to mention, when you hold your own crypto wallet, you are the bankster. That is a highly desireable feature for me when allocating capital to a target sector, and why bankster backed Pols want to make holding your own money in your own piggy bank [wallet] illegal. Who do they serve? Public interest [Notted] LOLz?

    https://cointelegraph.com/news/elizabeth-warren-is-pushing-the-senate-to-ban-your-crypto-wallet

    And now a real American Hero and Patriot.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/john-deaton-elizabeth-warren-massachusetts-election/

    Got Blockchain?

    • A piggy bank you may have, but crypto is not money, any more than S&H green stamps were. Private tokens.
      Wheat, oil…yeah – thems are fungibles. We like em
      I just bought a new three point implement today. Guess you know where my head is, huh?

      • Bitcoin could be considered a FRN substitute but forget explaining it.

        Many people think stocks are a claim to something but we saw when General Motors went over the falls the stockholders got nothing.

        Word stews that don’t mean anything.

      • “Private tokens.”

        WHAT da F do YOU think the USD/FRN is ?

        Come on man, this oughta be rich..

        My response prior to Ure reply is – https://youtu.be/0Cif5i1rlzw?si=21Pd4nuxKyj2zA_q

        * funny stu & U dont understand youse too close to targets…same program..same problems..duh-oooh!
        the why’s I am inverted – otherwise cant post..unless of course you shadow banned bcn…boofriggitywhoo!

      • Unless the three point implement fits on a string between two ends of a bent stick, you lost me.
        What kind of implement, if you don’t mind my asking?

  13. Markets as ‘fluff’? Why? Fed budget deficiet is for baby boomers… Social Security, Medicare, entitlements for ‘greatest generation’. So if we did a 1/2 market cap would corps tax contributions be 1/2 less for Fed.. and SS and Medicare be 1/2..? Greatest generation would be disappointed…

    • hmm.. wage earners are told social security is your retirement account.. your donation i m h o is held and managed by over indulged morons..that are tossing it away.. we Gove it away and squander it..if just the portion that I paid in was put into savings bonds and reinvested every 7 years I would have had a nest egg in the millions.. instead it was given to companies and handed out as bonuses to guys that did crappy work drove the companies they failed at to having to get bailouts.
      now the average cost of a home in our rural wasteland is at the price where the average employee would need to make somewhere close to 60 dollars an hour just to make the house payments low income apartments minimum wage would need to be about 30..
      you raise one because of rising cost and the ripple effect raising all other expenses happens across the board.. Zimbabwe here we come..today we are here tomorrow we will be there..
      the absolute best that we can expect is a weimar depression of amplified .. the worst we can expect is ww3 and global catastrophic proportions..
      wealthy people holding sheets of paper don’t even realize that 50% if what they think they have has already been stolen..

  14. This shit show of saving markets goes back to as recently as April of 2020 and that’s where the leveraged excess needs to take us – the Gov will have a completely compliant and subservient populace …… carry on

  15. how nice,,,
    Schwab,,, logged me out and I can’t get back in.
    only have 300 shares of DWAC/DJT$ in play

    • ’87 … before the days of electronic trading, most retail brokers just stopped answering their phones.

      You could still do a trade IF you WALKED INTO THEIR OFFICE, but reach them by phone? Wasn’t happening for 98% of the general investing population.

      Today was just a preview as to what will happen when TRUE market chaos occurs. Just a “warm up” act.

    • From the comments:

      “@HATZELL
      1 year ago
      In 1983 I was on a Strategic Air Command Air Force Base with B-52’s (loaded with nukes) and we were having a readiness Exercise with a pretend conflict with the Soviet Union. I brought in this song on a cassette tape and cranked it up loud. The room was silent for a long while after that.”

  17. how convenient, no access to Schwab …… classic

    from Schwab site:

    “Due to a technical issue, some clients may have difficulty logging in to Schwab platforms and may have difficulty reaching us by phone. Please accept our apologies as our teams work to resolve the issue as quickly as possible.”

  18. I prefer to bet on sure things! This weekend was tax free for “school supplies” in NM, and that includes computers and parts/accessories up to $1000. Clothing and other stuff too, with a very specific set of limitations. The state doesn’t care what you buy something for as long as you follow their rules.

    Sunday was my very selective shopping spree! Notably, webcams were excluded from tax-free status, but high end server level machines and parts weren’t! Go figure!

    Most national sellers honor the weekend, including Amazon and large tech houses like New Egg. Ebay hasn’t in the past, so there’s no reason to rush on their stuff.

    What was truly disappointing was that the weekend was not advertised at all. I just had to remember that it’s the first weekend of August every year.

  19. Can’t log on, and market falling like a stone.
    Just. Damn.

    Welcome to TekWorld.
    ..where everything depends on little Matty Matel toy computers, with OS patches 500 layers deep.

    W.A.S.F.
    (We are SO fucked….)

  20. Folks,

    Just returned after a short trip away from the internet and everything appears to be under control. The first week of race riots are drawing to a close in the UK and Ireland. Far-right protesters are to blame. Ahead of “Monday Madness” at the Clumsy Swan in Birmingham, a young soldier of Allah was pictured by the “Daily Mail” drop-kicking a White gentleman to the ground following a brief exchange of conversation.

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