Bond for Trouble, Jobs, Drone Dummy Part 1

Yes, we are going to have a “hard landing.”  Of course, Ure is not the only one saying this (I’ve been saying it for almost 2-years now!). Others, like the “smartest guy in the room” are saying it too.  Witness The Odds of Avoiding a Downturn Have Dropped, Mohamed E-Erian Says.  If you don’t follow his comments on X, you might want to have a reality check about how serious you are about making money…  Not that El-Erian walks on water, but we notice his ankles are suspiciously dry.

Yes, we called the Wave 2 top at July 31, 2023 – and that has held ever since.  Yes, the Fed might raise again at the end of the month.  Yes, that implies that our outlook for markets being halved between now and year-end is still intact.

Now, can I just give a few details and go back to my Big Secret Project (BSP)?

Job Numbers Disposal

The ADP numbers were OK this week.  But certainly not strong enough for the (idjit) administration to throw the door open for more – unneeded, unwanted, purchasing power diluting – open border stupidity. “You can always tell a democrat, but you can’t tell ’em much…”  They make up money out of thin air which is why with 160 million actual workers in ‘Merica, we have a $33 Trillion Dollar National Debt – and that’s without counting interest!

If you haven’t penciled it out, your portion of the National Debt works out to something like this – each.

Which means, as uninformed non-consenting (not capitalized) partners with the U.S. Government Corporation, you are on the hook for about twice this amount, really. Because as we point out, this does NOT include interest.  Think there’s no prepayment penalties?  This is all a Land o’ Fiction, though, because Aliens are not going to show up with enough money to cover it all.  Stupid doesn’t work in the multiverse. (Is there a futures market in loosh?)

Sure, we can refine the numbers a bit – 160-million workers is just a seat of the pants data grab.  That’s where this morning’s Job Report comes in.

The only number that matters is the number of people actually working. But you’d never know that from the Number Salad which reads this way:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and
technical services; and social assistance.”

Here somes the “remedial math” help.  The REAL number of people working may be seen in the BLS database which no one looks at (because they know most people are stupid and will buy all kinds of  cockamamie shit).  We, however, do:

So THE REAL GAIN was 90,000 more people working, not the blatantly misleading (bullshit) number to pimp markets.  Which is seriously ‘ef’ed.

The second most fun number is the CES (current employment stats) Birth-Death Model.  Because it tells us how much of this the government is just making up on the fly.  (Based on semi-reasonable estimates, of course!)

585,000 jobs were just made-up.  Estimated into existence to feed the Happy Talk Choir.  Go read CES Net Birth-Death Model (bls.gov)

So, when you see bullshit headlines line, oh…

Remember the following:

  • The public has Statistical Impairment and believe anything with a “number” attached.
  • The media (and Wall St.) play you for a fool repeating whatever misleading crap is fed them.
  • P.T. Barnum was wrong – more than one is “born every minute.”

But not everyone is so stupid.  This is why stock futures dropped more than 200 after the release and why we are in Wave 3 down. Which we will get to in a second.

Keeping the US Economy (and the whole world) from blowing over comes down to an ongoing confidence game.  As long as enough people keep working, borrowing, and spending, the musical chairs tune will be heard.  When the music stops, how much “forward wealth” do you have on hand as the last note echos off into nothing?

Mechanics of Wave 3 Down’s Implosion

Drooling Simpleton George Ure (not to be confused with the drooler in the Oval) has been telling Peoplenomics subscribers the Market is going (more or less, +/- an RCH) here where the Big Yellow 3 shows:

As any damn fool (which yes, includes you) can see, we did a Wave 1 high-dive into fall 2022. Then a Rally like Hell to July 31 this year.  Leaving us now in Wave 3 down. Which leads? You can read for yourself where our long-term forecast for Wave 3 down pointed:

Listen carefully now as our Tour Guide explains:

“As you can see, Wave 1 down was 338 days.  The Rally was 292 days. It would not be unreasonable for the Wave 3 decline to last about the same as Wave 1. So, shit may continue hitting the fan until – July 3, 2024 (a Wednesday).  Although “sell in May and Go Away” might be a useful way to remember high risk continues in this model through next Spring.

As Statistical Grand Inquisitor Ure (SGIU) reminds us, this Wave 3 Down will have its sub waves.  Since this is likely to be a normal macro Wave 3 we are still in the (1) (iv) of this larger 3 down. When it breaks, 3 will become apparent and diapers will be needed.”

NATO should be imploding by then, more high crimes of Joe Burden’s family should be coming to light, and we will be scrambling to build American supply chains as Asia/China tightens its leash.  Fun times will be had by all. Well, maybe not so much.

We’re Bond For Trouble

My near genius consigliere just can’t seem to hear me.  In his periodic client memos, he insists on saying things like “We all know the bond market is MUCH bigger than the stock market….”  

No.

I don’t know how many times I have told him “Hold ‘er Newt!”  Sure, back when, but not since Modern Marketing sucked in the Public.  Because (1):

“As of 2021, the size of the bond market (total debt outstanding) is estimated to be at $119 trillion worldwide and $46 trillion for the US market, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA).”

And (2):

“The U.S. equity markets are the largest in the world and continue to be among the deepest, most liquid and most efficient, representing 42.5% of the $108.6 trillion global equity market cap in 2023, or $46.2 trillion. This is 3.8x the next largest (stock) market, EU.”

Which actually makes my job (as Statistical Grand Inquisitor) a lot easier.

The mental model we hold involves Two Crooked Casinos, side-by-side with a slightly different clientele.  Cowardly, risk averse, long-tail analysis addicts pretending at capital preservation play bonds.  It’s a slow-motion game.  The embrace greed, risk loving, no analysis needed, let’s call it gambling crowd is over in the other casino playing stock games.

Both get clipped (shorn, haircut, pilloried) because the Bankster Mob owns both casinos. Early days of Hunter S. Vegas, right?

There WAS a time when my consigliere was right. But this was back when he attended law school with Daniel Webster. (Dartmouth, 1797 wasn’t it?)

[He might also be correct if you include compound interest due on bonds.  But as the SGIU we stick to transactional values. We do cut him some slack, though. Because CPAs have special health risks which may impact their assessments. Such as EBITDA virus, as well as learning disabilities including MACRS and Accruals Deficit Disorders. Easily treated most times with single malt ETOH.]

Headliners

Building out the Police State is right on schedule: POLICE STATE: FBI Quietly Created New Category of Extremism Ahead of 2024 Election to Include Trump-MAGA Supporters.  Meantime, Trump plays at king-making in Donald Trump endorses Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan to take over from Kevin McCarthy as House speaker | Fortune.  Even as Trump’s fortunes are falling: Donald Trump falls off Forbes 400 list of richest Americans, here’s why.  Is that a pant load of circularity, or what?

The real question, though, is “If loose lips sink ships, what about submarines? Trump reportedly shared nuclear sub secrets with Australian.  Is it like, you know, a requirement everyone going to Washington loses their judgement?  Please, God, don’t tell me this is another one of those Trump hate allegations by someone who wasn’t present…just out for a bash.

Now let’s talk democrat bunglers: Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial to resume with testimony from ex-FTX executive | Reuters.  (This should have read bundlers but the typo seemed to fit nicely.)

It IS a war, you know. And civilians are fair game… Hroza, Ukraine missile strike: No military targets in village hit by ‘inhuman’ Russian attack, officials say.

New and improved killing is just ahead with a nuclear powered cruise missile with 14,000 mile range.  Code Skyfall in Moscow: Firing of NATO’s non-interceptible 9M730 supermissile Burevestnik – Putin: “No one will survive if Russia is attacked”. The problem with such missiles is they can come in from any direction.  Which gets me to harking back to my “good old” days up in BMEWS country where the high-powered ack radars only looked in one direction.  Ah, simpler times, back when the Cold War was not so bad, eh?

Great Marketing Ploys dept: Alien Hunter: Amazon to pay Ring security camera users over $1mn for footages of aliens.

Planning to visit Niger?  We’d crank these two items into your travel plans: France to begin pulling out troops from Niger this week. Along with Niger junta rejects transition plan as 29 soldiers are killed in insurgent attack.

Might we interest you in visiting Gabon, instead?  “Oil-rich and biodiverse” sure sounds like a tourism pitch, doesn’t it? What life is like in Gabon — a month after a military takeover.

Trip to Syria, then? Syria mourns scores killed in drone attack on military academy | Reuters. OK, maybe not there, then.  (You are seeing the reason Elaine, and I don’t travel much, anymore?)

Even cruise ships have lost some of their luster for us as The US government is required to publish reports of criminal activity on cruise ships every quarter. They haven’t all year.  Hmm…which part of not surprised are we?

And if that’s not reason enough? Vacationing in busy, polluted cities for just 5 days could shorten your life – Study Finds. Home is where the heart (and the food, drones, comms, ivermectin, and guns) are.

But let’s wrap on a positive note: American Apocalypse? 71% Don’t Trust U.S. Government To Prevent Doomsday – Study Finds.  Which means only 29 percent are delusional. Better than I’d expect!

Around the Ranch: Drone Dummy 1

My “keeps going back into compass calibration mode” drone smacked into the 25-foot level of a tree Thursday morning.  Damn thing was stuck and wouldn’t come down.

So, I chopped it down.

A fascinating photo-essay for ShopTalk Sunday this week. Today I begin cutting up 50 feet of firewood.  But the drone was undamaged, so all’s well that falls well, I suppose.

With a high tomorrow of only 70, we might be able to get some real work done out in the shop this weekend.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

41 thoughts on “Bond for Trouble, Jobs, Drone Dummy Part 1”

  1. Others, like the “smartest guy in the room” are saying it too.

    I _am_ appreciative of flattery but … that’s too king George.

    Wave 3 is the big one. Cut in half? Maybe. First we have to cut in quarters. Please stand by.

    ATL: spending my morning shooing off the resident pair of Bald Eagles circling my aged tomcat.

    Keep your helmet on and remain near the foxhole rim.
    That is all until there’s more,
    Egor

  2. Monday 10/9/2023 will be bank holiday… All banks to be closed
    Columbus Day officially celebrates arrival to America.

  3. “Putin: “No one will survive if Russia is attacked”.”

    Russia was already attacked.

    Putin is preparing for a 70% loss of housing units.

    “The number of housing units in the United States has been growing year on year and in 2021, there were approximately 142 million housing units in the United States. ”

    142,000,000 – 70% = 42,600,000

    “The average household size for the U.S. in 2022 is 2.6 people per household. It is calculated by dividing the household population by total households.”

    After the battle and discounting the dead U.S. household size will jump to 8.6.

    The maths could be off.

    • think about it …I believe what Russia is technically referring to is .. troops on the ground and missiles or drones launched from a nato country seeing the decline and destruction of available people to serve as troops that there will eventually have to be troops sent in from other areas…. they’ve been playing skirting what is it article 5..
      The USA snd NATO countries have been taunting Russia by sending supplies and technical assistance. taunting Russia on delivering a direct attack yo nato countries. Russia has been avoiding this and now there are reports of nato countries contemplating insertion on troops..
      at some point people to be tossed into the fire are going to be so low they either quit and admit defeat or gain troops from other countries. right now the Baltic nato countries are being used as meat shields.
      the other thing I see is the poison pawn trap.. we can’t spend forever and as we drain down the strategic reserve supplies we weaken ourselves while those that oppose us are positioning and circling us ..now insert how many illegals that Joe and administration has allowed entry given aid and support now all coming over and aidded by an administration..the Trojan horse from countries that the famy business has gleaned wealth from. I’ve been looking for the assessment study I read that gave an anticipated 80 thousand elite troops having already crossed our borders and being assisted by our administration..
      no matter whch angle you look at this from.. strategically , economically, morally, ethically, supply chain the results are ugly..
      that doesn’t even take into consideration of all the countermeasures that have been tossed out to negatively affect the citizens if the usa..
      every time something negative or a path if possible corruptive business activities a new counter measure was tossed out..similar to them charging Trump with a new charge every time some new allegation about the family business..
      I’ve said this before..the best scenario I can see out of this whole is the worst depression in history and the destruction of the dollar and the admittance that we now have a multi polar planet..
      I am thinking this will be seen historically as the administration
      of calamity joe and cackling kammy..

      • Always the RKM
        Always the central bankers – ALWAYS
        “Story at a Glance
        Edward Dowd is a hedge fund “guru” and former equity portfolio manager for the largest asset manager in the world, BlackRock. Over the past two years, Dowd has courageously come forward to awaken people to the collateral damage of the COVID pandemic

        A global financial collapse is a mathematical certainty. Dowd predicts the collapse will begin in earnest within the next six to 24 months

        COVID provided cover for central banks and governments, allowing them to temporarily hide the reality that the financial system is crashing

        COVID also allowed for the erection of a control system to shield governments and central banks from the fallout from collapsing food, energy and finance systems. It allowed them to restrict travel and introduce digital IDs and central bank digital currencies by linking them together with vaccine passports

        Insurance companies report a 40% increase in excess mortality among working-age adults during the fourth quarter of 2021. Millennials aged 25 to 44 had an 84% increase in excess mortality in that same timeframe. Since the rollout of the COVID jabs, the number of Americans who claim to be disabled has risen by at least 10%, possibly more.
        https://substack.com/redirect/d60a98d2-2fe0-4eff-911a-2823b308e1eb?j=eyJ1IjoiMWtrNHlkIn0.fVVcJH6f1r_zprDxpYe9yhWMCY9me-zumT3TyeeDR9A

        Stand by – moar LIGHT coming..!

        No AMREV 2, Seems Global REVOLUTION popping off soonly.
        BTC is testing resistance yet again today at the $28k level, Does it break thru to upside, or rejected again at the formation of a double top = ohh noo.

        As Always – BuyBuyBuy, till it hurts. At about 20% allocation – if trader U be.

      • Russia is huge.

        Wiping out 70% of Russia is equal to destroying 7.5 time zones. Russia has 11, CONUS has four.

        You’re probably spot-on. I’m waiting for the mighty M1s to get wiped out. The Leopard 2 tanks didn’t last long.

        “The first US M1 Abrams tanks have arrived in Ukraine”

  4. Bullfeathers !
    this baby is going higher, after the algo’s get done overreacting to the bullfeathers report put out by the Lying Liars over at BullfeathersLabor Statistics/BLS Dept.

    And zo coot will be lying in wait, ambush style, to pounce on some juicy upside opportunities, a Tigger kinda day..https://youtu.be/hYZ81x2CJF8?si=mT0QHdJGAJ1J_NFa

    My best trade of the year,so far, has been/is NatGas. Best Trade ever ? The one I never made .
    UNG -rolling out to Nov&Dec, and down in Strike price, “prophets” dont cha know.

    What with regular gas getting cheaper at pump, as winter blends come on line. Oil is currently trending down – looking for entry point.
    Think I found an entry point for a Gold Miner and am starting with an exotic Butterfly. Buy 2 deep in the money calls, Sell 4 at the money calls and Buy 2 out the money calls. Want to put this on as cheaply as possible, so will be “legging” into it trying to capture a small Credit.

    Bullish American Private Enterprise, BEARISH US Govmint..could not be more negative, have never been this negative. I admit to lil FEAR creeping into view.

    Unlike all the tough ass mofo’s out there running around in blm & antifa costumes with apparently no FEAR – seem doomed by their lack of cognition – FEAR.

    Fear will keep you alive, enables you to survive long odds. Yes, Fear emotion is used to control Human populations (the uninformed/dullards). I never met a Man on an actual mission that didnt know fear, (c130 rolling down the strip, airborne gonna take a little trip..) everybody waiting on that greenlight is digesting Fear, everybody..if you aint – something terribly wrong. Healthy doses Chief – healthy doses.

    ? methylene dosages/ %’solutions, Mg to ML – confuzzling info nootropic use out there. Wahts a half mind to do?

    Who knew the musicians were drunk & high on that ill fated plane, when they decided to play hot potato with a couple of Grenades – me thinks Mr Poooteen be trolling the cia/dia axis of darkness with the latest.jss

  5. We all know the bond market is MUCH bigger than the stock market….”

    Yes, No, where all the toxic CME swimming naked shorts used to supress price discovery are located is the biggest market. Now this [I believe BCN will appreciate this] is where block chain technology will be used to re hypothecate said swill into a newer better future for all. See Hyper inflationary crack up boom hasnow been postponed, [for the Bankerster class], Pray tell the retail USURES of the FRN will be experienceing a more Weinmar style outcome? Or blue pill, take Ure CBDC with a smile on the FedNow payment rails.

    https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/64cf12860039f9292b8b6b69/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPQlXNH36mI

    Funny, my last fortune cookie had a simple question:
    Got Blockchain?

  6. I made a bet yesterday. That’s all it was. A bet. A short quiz on “What if…?” What if the Friday’s Job Report is once again a statistical lie – just to make everything look bright and shiny? What happens when the report is much better than the Wall Street consensus? Wall Street and thus the Markets will not like that very much – because it will show the economy is doing much better than expected., and the Federal Reserve does not want that., nor like that very much. The economy has to cool down to drop inflation and a robust jobs report will show that we aren’t slowing down. And the Federal Reserve will now have some ammo for it’s decision to possibly raise interest rates another quarter of a percent. Which in-turn would more than likely break the stock market, and possibly close a few hundred banks., Mantra: “The Fed will keep pushing- until something breaks.”
    So.., based on my [ probably] flawed logic., that the jobs report would be a pack of lies and the market would sell off.., I placed my bets. I got out just a bit ago., when the Dow was down 170., and the NASDAQ100 was being hit.., made just over 8 percent. The market has since recovered pretty well from the initial shock, all the indexes are now positive.., but, no matter., at least not at the present time. It’s the last 90 minutes today that I will be looking at.
    Now – where does Monday take us?

    • People are spending because of plastic..the people I know are using plastic to keep their quality of life as it is.. instead of cutting back.. ( myself included..I got the things I needed to finish prepping using plastic.. instead of waiting till I had the cash up front for it.. )
      The jobs.. well I don’t know about out there but here in the wastelands.. you can get jobs.. but part time jobs.. ( similar to the eighties recession lots of part time a few hours a week nothing permanent and nothing with any benefits.. benefits are on the down side to.. more companies are cutting them out of the job)
      then you have the panic buying.. people realize that future events are going to be ugly so they are buying what they can while they can.. I had a young woman from our church that stopped buy.. she asked how do you do it.. her and her husband try but then fail because they run short.. I told her.. you cannot build a pantry by buying everything at one time.. that is unless you have funds.. if your like the vast majority.. you cannot afford to.. the cost of daily living has raised over fifty percent.. and it is going up.. big time fast.. a candy bar.. I was going to grab a candy bar and took a look at the price and put it back..
      essential items are going up.. extravagant items are staying where they are..
      big box stores are already having black friday sales.. we got xmas toy catalogues already for xmas from amazon and other stores.. I visited with the manager at our local walmart and he said they were doing that because they are afraid they won’t be able to compete with prices or getting products delivered in time.. so do it now..
      the only thing keeping the market flush is plastic.. take that away and you have a crumbling noodle that is falling apart as you push it across the table..
      young kids like my children have lived in a time of great wages good benefits etc.. they kind of are feeling it but still looking at me like I am nuts when I talk about what I see soming.. the scene in the movie the tomorrow man where the father talks to his son is resemblance to my children gandering at myself..
      the news they hear is the MSM news during the drive at five.. nothing more.. and we all know MSM is not giving out what the real conditions are..
      the VA medical system is also prepping to.. they are keeping supply logistics centralized to expedite shipping to areas that need it..
      the kids today have not had the same experiences that I have had and many of us older people.. I worked my ass off to try and keep them from having the same experiences that I did.. they would fall over if they had to walk six blocks much less several miles..
      the estimated amount of my churchs members that have provisions is about six percent.. not good and they talk about it all the time..

  7. I’m not in the market, & normally just brose the charts & text to get a handle on the big picture. But, the acronym RCH, brought me up short. The last time I used or heard it was in the Navy, in the early 60s.
    It brought a smile to this old twidgit’s face.

  8. “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and
    technical services; and social assistance.”

    I totally hate these projections..
    see none of it shows the insertion and costs of harboring and assisting millions of illegals that are now part of the population but not a statistical figure.
    it doesn’t show the additional burden on the taxpayers..

  9. I guess it’s my paranoia showing., but for the past couple of years I have not been very interested in “comms”., broadcasting my location far and wide, for all to hear and possibly triangulate on. I do like to listen though., and put my antenna up into a fifty year old juniper with a 120lb fishing cross bow. Worked rather well. Even looking for it – it is very hard to see.
    I half-heartedly was listening last night while reading when a guy from Colorado chimed in and started bragging about all the ‘preps’ he has done and just how well off he will be when it all hits the fan. He sounded like an enthusiastic 15 year old on his first real date. Finally., after a lengthy brag, someone told him to shut up – that he was telling the world just where to go for supplies and shelter.
    He never said another word. Vanished. I don’t think he even considered the fact that there may be nefarious people with the right equipment, willing to do dastardly-deeds. [ Government included.] Never occurred to him.
    So.., be careful what you say., and how long you take to say it. Remember., you are only paranoid, if they are ‘not’ coming after you.

    • I am right with you on that one LOL LOL LOL
      Have you ever done your own triangulation.. its pretty fun.. a few years ago there were a lot of suspicious signals.. you find them all over.. ( happened to be a wasp van for Homeland Security) and anyone can do it.. its like a beacon in a dark world..

    • Observation One: 99% of the value of radio is in the listening, NOT the talking. Knowing where to listen then becomes the object of the thing.

      Observation Two: Them’s as talk about it don’t do it: Them’s as do it don’t talk about it.

    • “I don’t think he even considered the fact that there may be nefarious people with the right equipment”

      I have been in the market for a Hallicrafters S-30 for several years. They call it the “Radio Compass.” It is the receiver with the circular, pivoting antenna on top of the radio box. We used them during WW-II to triangulate the location of Axis spies, both here and abroad. I have a much newer and better “radio compass” than the S-30. (HAMs sometimes play hide & seek games with a low-power transmitter.) I want one because they look neat, and are a reminder of what electronics were capable of, 80 years (that’s 96 iterations of Moore’s Law) ago.

      My Number One Rule WRT survivalism is: You NEVER tell people what you have or where you have it. You also never tell them how you, specifically are going to handle a specific situation. I share my knowledge and expertise (what little I have) in a general manner, because most people with functional synapses are worth saving, should they be so-motivated as to save themselves.

      BTW, my Number Two Rule is you never give away your position. If (when) TSHTF, those who wish to survive need to hunker down and not move, for 6-10 months. If you move, you leave a trail. If you leave a trail, someone who is without food, water, medicine, morals or religion will find it and backtrack you to your death.

      Based on past study and FEMA training, I figure it will take about 24 hours for “authorities,” and about 36 hours for GenPop to figure out the stinky stuff has hit the bladed blower. In that time, a person can get their SOs and get into their hidey hole, without detection. After 36 hours, every second one is visible or moving lessens their chance of survival from the hand of their friends and neighbors — and yes, your friends, neighbors, even family will kill you for your stash, the first time one of their kids cries out in pain from a 3-day empty stomach.

      If you help, you will die.

      Since I’m not sure I could turn down the cries of a starving kid, I intend to hunker down where no one else lives, and I intend to stay there until the stupid, the unprepared, and the riff-raff kill each other off. You can’t fix stupid and you can’t stock the pantries of the unprepared. You can’t save them; you can only try and educate them. If they choose to not save themselves, the best thing you can do for all concerned is abide by the choices they made, when they had options for choices… Oh, and be elsewhere.

      • Plan B’s are tough to keep in a readiness state. For most, the alternatives are the primary residence, refugee status, or mobile living out of the vehicle. With grid down, you have one chance to get where you need to go, and after that, you are trapped for the duration. The only alternative I am sure has a zero survival rate is stuck in a traffic jam with dust falling.

    • Many don’t realize it but virtually all receivers RADIATE RF even when just in listening mode. Surprised more people don’t know that since even as far back as WW2 the US and British military was using that to track down German Submarines when they turned on their receivers to listen to orders from Germany.

      Of course the radiated RF when receiving is just a small fraction of what is radiated when broadcasting, and as one would expect some well made equipment puts out much less RF than other equipment does. Something to keep in mind if it is a nation state that is trying to track down something versus just a person. (LED bulbs also put out an RF signal too!! you almost can’t hide while using LED light bulbs in other words)

      • Actually – and we can check with broadcast brother Hank on this – the real problem with RF radiation from a receiver dates back to the earliest days of the super heterodyne receives.

        As first reaslized (ww1) the antenna came into the radio receiver, and went through a tuned circuit or two into the Mixer tube.

        Here, the desired signals were mixed with a local oscillator. Which – coupled through a tuned circuit – did make a dandy beacon for (among others) German UBoats of the era. This figured prominently in the last Clive Cussler novel (and Issac Bell adventure) which was cowritten with Jack DuBrul, who is an awesome writer in his own right.

        In the novel, a crude transmitter is smuggled into a shipment of arms from the US bound for Europe – where a crude timer then sets it off while the hero…yada, yada…

        The main thing was the local oscillator was offset in frequency from the desired signal by whatever the Intermedia Frequency of the radio was. For the US, many were on 455 KHz, yet even in WW2, some military radios, such as a factory-fresh BQ-348-Q (gifted to mw by a loyal and most generaour long-time reader) used a different frequency for the intermediate of 910 KHz. So, for example, when receiving on 1,000 KHz (middle of AM broadcast band) the local oscillator for most American radios (of early vintage) would be on 1455 KHz. It was here the Jerry’s would listen.

        The thinking on the BC-348 design was that there would be a chance that the enemy radio operator would take this higher signal (1910 KHz for the local oscillator) and would assume “Meh bad design with lots of second harmonic content.”

        Whether that worked (to confuse) is debatable. As there are trade-offs. You see, as the intermediate frequency gets lower the performance curves become very much better in terms of selectivity (bandwidth). Which makes 50 KHz ideal for things like Morse code. The BC-348 is “broad as a barn” for code, but sounds amazing on AM for nighttime listening.

        The downside of the lower IF frequency was that “images” were harder to filter out. So at 1000 khz being listened, the local oscillator would appear on 1050 Khz, but this means on the other side of THAT, and image (if present and strong) on 1100 KHz would come through loud and clear.

        This drove modern radio designs to use a second local oscillator (one of them being crystal controlled for stability) and thus we get to the term “double conversion.”

        When a further intermediate frequency is employed, the result is triple convension. Very immune of images and great radios, in the main. The laqtest generation (pre DSP) was the quadruple conversion design (which is why I like Icom 761;s so much – they are really the epitome of super heterodyne radios.

        Back to point, the addition of another tube stage (before the mixer in the super heterodyne schma) both amplified weak signals coming in, while at the same time, reducing (*because amplifiers are one-way devices, mostly) the giveaway local oscillator frequency by 80-90 percent.

        Later, during the cold war, you could see a further enhancement of technique, as certain radio makers, such as National, added a second RF amplifier stage.

        If you are wondering, which design you have, a cheap “all American five” (clock radios) of the 1960s would be quickly seen as NO( RF amplifier because the main Tuning Capacitor (the big bread-slicer looking thingy) was divided into two sections.
        With one RF amplifier, it needed to be a three section affair, while in the odd double RF amplifier design (National 183-D – for example – still a very collectable golden oldie in good shape – one of few radios missing from my collection) there is a “four part bread slicer…)

        Now, back to point, most of this goes away when you get into the world of direct-sampling with DSP. It is extremely difficult (*but definitely something for my friend Dieter, who did things like design unattended mountain top satellite video uplinks from the ‘Stans) to home in on the direct sampling rate, which, in effect becomes the analog to the RF amplifier.

        In theory, yes, but because it’s up in the line-of-sight range.

        Sorry for the long reply but it’s a good point.

        The more important reason to listen for hours before transmitting is because from the Key Hole series on, the resolution from three satellites on any RF source was good enough that even a short (long burst packet) could be narrowed down and then augmented with a multispectral scan for sources. (Optics, IR, etc.)
        The rea lesson I got out of doing some mid 1990s work the the RF whizzed at Mitre (.org) was to never have an RF source an closer than a quarter mile (or more) from forces.

        Because radio signals are (Global Hawk gotcher ears on?) a homing beacon. I think that’s what WmoRR was getting, too, as well.

        • “What he said”. Right on, G! There might be some anonymity in a crowd of noise, though… like everyone running their LED lights. But then you have a crowd around you. Solar PV systems with ‘charge optimizers’ at the panels are the nasty bane of RF bands these days.

        • I can understand the ‘Ranger Paranoia’ if you are a single target in a wilderness area and the enemy may actually be looking for you, but in a civilian population, even sparsely populated, people are going to have their radio receivers of all sorts on looking for information. So what’s so special about any single receiver? Anonymity of the crowd… of radio receivers. The crowd will all be looking for information.
          As for ham radio transmitters, any of us with a callsign are already in a FCC database that anyone can find, and the government can shut down if deemed necessary in war time. Then it becomes ‘pirate beware’ times.

  10. Back decades ago, I listened to a show called “Money Talk” where the host proclaimed that at least 300k jobs a month were needed to keep the US afloat – that was the “sweet spot”.

    Job report day would roll around and we would hit the “sweet spot” and the market would immediately tank: this appeared counter-intuitive to me; wouldn’t a good jobs report lead to a higher market? Au contraire, it was explained to me, a good jobs report would lead to the fed raising interest rates due to a strong economy, allowing one to achieve a risk-free return better than could be had in the market.

    Since algo-driven trading splashed on the scene and the incursion of the PPT, everything I thought I knew about the market has been completely destroyed.

    Good luck to you guys that can continue to throw money at this abomination; I’m just too old and work too hard for my money to play these games anymore and limit myself to a mm fund and very little money in an index fund.

    • In “normal” economic times., a solid Jobs Report would be a good signal for the markets – we are doing well. But in bad economic times, with inflation sticking around, like in todays world, a high numbered Jobs Report just fuels inflation., which may force the Federal Reserve to raise rates to curb growth and help stop inflation. Just the way money works.
      – Playing in the “Big Casino” is not for everyone.., you only bet what you can afford to lose.., thus the term “Lunch Money Account”. No one I know is “throwing money” away. Do your home work., pay attention., play it carefully., and you can grow a lunch money account to a rather nice annual return. I have for many years.

  11. “71% Don’t Trust U.S. Government To Prevent Doomsday”

    71% EXPECT U.S. Government To Cause Doomsday. Fixed it for you.

    • actually.. I believe that statistic is from some organization pro this administration.. I am betting it is more like five.. or less.. no one trusts the federal govt.. at least not around these parts..

  12. Did you book the inventory loss deduction on the ‘Tree Farm’?
    I could comment about drones growing on trees, but…

  13. Federal data tracking shows that roughly 1 in 6 illegal immigrants are being sent to New York City, Long Island, and the Hudson Valley.

    An additional 30% are heading to Chicago, Boston, Miami, and the San Francisco Bay Area.

    The next most popular destinations include Atlanta, Denver, Detroit, New Orleans and the District of Columbia. [ I can not imagine what a person from Honduras is going to do once Winter hits Denver. [ Seems no one wants to stay in Texas.]

    With the exception of Miami, all of these cities have laws or policies in place that exacerbate their problem because they are “sanctuary cities.”

    USA Today reported that 2.8 million migrants have officially crossed the border this year under Joe Biden’s open border policy. A Think-Tank in San Diego California places that crossing-number at “three times” that amount with over 60% being single males., not families. [ Unofficially – that is roughly five million single males.]

  14. “Trump reportedly shared nuclear sub secrets with Australian.”

    Question: What “secrets” would a construction contractor from Queens have (or even want?)
    Answer: the ones someone else gave him.
    Followup: If someone else gave Trump “secrets,” were they actually secret?
    Answer: Orange Man Bad…

  15. “And if that’s not reason enough? Vacationing in busy, polluted cities for just 5 days could shorten your life”

    Los Angeles is running a tourism commercial every half-hour between 6p and about 1a, on FoxNews, CNN, History, ESPN & ESPN-2, and many of the Discovery networks… Dunno about MSLSD, and I don’t know about broadcast channels because I never watch (listen to) them unless they’re carrying an interesting college basketball or football game.

  16. As I read the instructions for your drone, it seems that it uses WiFi frequencies for comms & control. It says not to use it near WiFi nor cell towers. I know this will be a YUGE headache, considering how well connected you are, but have you considered shutting off EVERY WiFi node and device you have on the ranch and operating the drone in a ‘radio quiet’ zone to see if the problem persists. All it takes is one wireless digital device to trigger a system reset on the drone, and there you go…

  17. I have no idea how big the “Bond Market” is since I have no idea how much debt Zimbabwe issued (I assume NY Bankers numbers do NOT include amounts from third world countries), but I do know that in my collection of Zimbabwe currency I have TRILLIONS of Dollars of actual currency. Their government issued debt must be more than the actual currency they issued and I have in hand many times what you cited as the Total of the world’s bond debt.

    Rock on Zimbabwe! … from where else can you obtain a collection of currency where each bill at it’s time of issuance represent the ability to buy ONE loaf of bread, from $1 to $10,000,000,000!?? Framed up into one frame it is a nice representation as to government created INFLATION. Oh, their printer (in GB as I understand it) did put out high quality notes and the artwork on some is top notch. (though since most of my notes were circulated notes they are worn a bit).

    So George … will you sell Utopia for $1 Trillion (Zimbabwe retired currency)? I can fly down and pay CASH for it TODAY, no bank wire required!!

    • I can outbid you. I have a Zim 100 Trillion Dollar bill… single bill. Mint gem condition. I could pay off the national debt.

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