There has been a lot of loose talk on the web about how fast – and whether – large portions of Los Angeles will be recovered. Much is spoken “without anchor.”
A colleague, who contributes here on occasion under the nom de plume of Capt. Gooding is one hell of a researcher and we take his word as gold.
With this in mind, we propose some “Expectation Benchmarking” referencing Lahaina.
The wildfire that destroyed Lahaina, Maui, in Hawaii state, was on 8 AUG 2023. It smouldered for about 5 days. 102 were killed by the blaze. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) estimate that over 2,200 buildings were destroyed, mostly residential. The official damage total from the United States Department of Commerce is $5.5 billion.
The Lahaina fire burned over 2,170 acres and destroyed the historic town of Lahaina.
8 FEB 2024: FEMA preliminary after action report: https://www.usfa.fema.gov/blog/preliminary-after-action-report-2023-maui-wildfire/
8 AUG 2024 – private citizens have cleared about 1350 building sites of debris. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1,399 homes need rebuilding. As the community pursues rebuilding efforts, county officials have only approved a fraction of the disaster recovery building permits submitted by homeowners or their representatives. https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/maui-fire-update-one-year-later/#
In 22 OCT 2024, a draft rebuilding plan was released for public comment. https://www.forbes.com/sites/willmcgough/2024/10/22/a-place-for-residents-first-and-visitors-second-maui-releases-draft-of-lahaina-rebuild-plan/ Basically NO public money has been actually spent on rebuilding anything yet.
25 OCT 2024, they don’t even know how many historic structures will be ALLOWED to be rebuilt, whether they can look like they did, or will have to be built to new code standards, and there is legally only a year to rebuild anyway, which, uh, was already passed by 25 October 2024. https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/local-news/2024-10-25/maui-county-lahainas-nonconforming-structures-rebuilt-flexible-codes
10 JAN 2025, 73 landowners launch initiative to rebuild businesses. (Maybe. We’ll see…) https://mauinow.com/2025/01/10/front-street-recovery-generational-landowners-launch-initiative-to-rebuild-lahaina-town/
Before the Aug 23 fire, 12,700 people (more or less) lived in Lahaina, Maui. Abut 2,200 structures burnt. Lahaina was just over 7 square miles in size. We are talking about a minute fraction of the LA total burnt area (so far, as fires still continue uncontained.) Current reports are of 12,300 structures burnt out so far in LA. Most of Lahaina was elderly timber frame houses, many uninsulated. Vast numbers of the LA fire homes burnt were multi-million dollar mansions. When
I hear politicians tell audiences that the SOCAL rebuild will be fast, I just want to throw up. They either have no idea, (possible, as most are Democrats who have never actually worked on physically building anything in their lives, and so have absolutely no idea how hard the permitting process is, let alone where they are going to get the skilled labor who can meet all the CALI building codes – CALI is NOT Texas – Oh, and where are all those contractors going to stay while they rebuild LA? In the hotels that are not there any more? In downtown hotels at hundreds of bucks a day? Good luck with that one. Any idea how much simple labor costs are going to be to rebuild because of that? Astronomical is a possible description.), or are lying. Or both.
The LA fires are not done yet. More destruction is yet to come. But any thoughts that the areas burnt out by the LA fires will be promptly rebuilt are codswallop. Balderdash. Onion sauce. Ain’t a gonna happen, not quickly, at least. The economic horrors of these fires (not to mention the human dimensions of grief) are only beginning to sink into the consciousness. The officials are utterly clueless. Or serial liars. Or both.
To quote Marlon Brando, in Apocalypse Now: “The horror. The horror…”
With a nod to his perceptive research expertise, we can only add “The BS, the BS…” Or, more politely, “The paperwork. The Paperwork.”
Write when you’re contained,
George@Ure.net
“Strange Days” – The Doors
Strange days have found us
Strange days have tracked us down
They’re going to destroy
Our casual joys
We shall go on playing
Or find a new town
how will the fires affect future property taxes?
Having watched at a local level the problems that Lahaina, et al, is wrestling with, he is absolutely right about rebuilding LA. Hell, they wouldn’t even let local owners back on their properties in Lahaina until they had been examined, tested, and cleaned of ‘toxic waste’…. IE all the ash. Maui had to designate a special toxic waste dump site to remove the ash waste to. That all had to be accomplished before they would even let owners back on their own properties to begin assessing how to rebuild.
LA will be uninhabitable for years… maybe decades.
I see the likelyhood that many will simply walk away from their uninsured properties in LA and move elsewhere. Cut their losses and refuse to rebuild or even clean up.
Another 113 combination!
California fires live updates: 11 dead, 13 missing in LA County…
https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/california-fires-live-updates-santa-ana-winds-rage/?id=117541907
G.A. STEWART : After I published my first book, The Age of Desolation in 2010, I made a discovery when I sensed that the Fukushima earthquake and nuclear disaster on March 11th, 2011 might have connections to the Madrid Train Bombing on March 11th, 2004. So, I began to research the history of events on that day just as I did for the history of April 20th, which appears in Nostradamus Quatrain I-42.
It would take me almost three more years to put all the pieces in place regarding dates with the number combination 1-1-3.
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2021/01/13/113/
There is something wrong with Southern California… Something in the fabric of this place that is just – off. It has been this way for years.
We weep with those who have lost so much. We can barely imagine living through such a nightmare. These are human lives and valued property and memories being vaporized as most of us look on from safe distance away.
We note the fundamental obvious incompetence of local and State leaders who helped to create and allow this catastrophe. No adults are in the room to handle a epochal crisis when one arises. Leaders who now stand fully bare naked to reveal their cluelessness and complete lack of vocational, mental, ethical, and spiritual ability to lead at a time when so many are so vulnerable and hurting – and when leadership quite literally is the difference between life and death. Survive, or perish.
But not everyone had to wait for such apocalyptic burning to see The Nightmare of Los Angeles. Some of us who have once lived there have already experienced this for ourselves up-close-and-personal in lesser ways. Maybe not the horrors of losing one’s home or business and possessions. But yes to the utter vacancy and emptiness of normal Life in LA. This is a place truly without a Soul. It is an empty world of vanity and appearances and fakery and shallowness. It is touted around the World as a place of dreams when the reality is that much of what is found here is disappointments if not being a bit or a lot more nightmarish.
What is it about Southern California that makes it so? It didn’t have to turn out this way, did it? Is it the weather that is generally far better than weather elsewhere that turns people into a lazy and uninspired funk? Is it just the Leftist politics which celebrate the insanity of Wokeness and rewarding Non-Achievers? Is it something in the water? Whatever it is – something has made LA in to what it is.
For generations we have all been fed the hype by America’s State Media about how great this place is and such a land of dreams. They never tell you about the nightmares. Those you learn for yourself should you choose to spend some of your years in this false Hollywood-ish stage setting of happy and glamorous fronting that covers a land barren of good purpose and proper leadership.
When the Beach Boys sang about Southern California back in the early ’60s they were not lying. It was quite a place back then. Before the Communists took over and all the horrid countless and soil-draining subdivisions replaced the orange groves and when truly industrious people lived and worked there in the big aircraft factories of Douglas and other places.
But those times died off with the ‘70s and the place has become much more expensive, crowded, Socialist, and disappointing.
Southern California has its own procession of Seasons. Only there, the Seasons are Rainy Season, Mudslide Season, Santa Ana Winds Season, Fire Season, and Hot Hot Hot Season. With the perpetual years-long undercurrent of running Seasons of Disappointment.
Prayers for the victims. Hopes that you can rebuild your lives and heal your hurts. No one should ever have to live through and face the hellscape of trying to rebuild your lives all over again.
But also, maybe might you now consider that this may not be so much a City of Angels as it is the Homeland of an Ancient Greek Fire God who bought the hype and took residence there — and that wont be going anywhere no matter what happens next.
George, Look at how fast this thing is moving! Look at how big it is compared to the houses. That is was caught on live TV.
There is also an orb at the bottom of the could that is moving super-fast out of the way.
There is no helicopters that move this fast. nor Drones that move this fast. https://x.com/528vibes/status/1877795686814470251
If you think this is a helicopter???, congratulations you just won a free eye exam at lens crafters.