Only a couple of items on the list this morning (as having redeeming social value and economic exploits open to all: The story about Personal Income and (nicely dovetailing) the Employment Cost Index. A couple of data-backed axioms about money first, though: You can only spend it once. The US dollar is debt-saturated. What cost … Read More
We will get to the GDP fairytale in a minute. First? You may remember our headline from Monday. In which we yammered something about this having the potential to be a “Thousand Point Down Week.” I’m sure quite a few readers were thinking “Doom porn BS.” Yet, as of this morning, here’s how things are … Read More
Sometimes, it’s hard to write directly about “what the data says.” Because, many times, people will not accept ‘raw data.’ Our socialization programs us to think a certain way. It’s hard to “bug out” of the dominant social paradigm. Occasionally, though, bugouts happen – not due to any special onboard biasing. It can arise because … Read More
Just out: “Data released today for February 2022 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.8% annual gain in February, up from 19.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came … Read More
My, ain’t this a hoot? Market dropped nearly a thousand Dow points Friday yet managed to put in a bounce Monday going into the close. As I explained in the Monday column; “A rally on Housing data tomorrow, for example, is possible. But by Thursday, someone will cite the time lag in that data set … Read More
After the “quickie visit” to the ER last Thursday night, I decided to kick it a bit and put more brain cells on trading. Looks to me like the market ahead is in a position to really “lose it.” For a couple of decades, I’ve been using an Aggregate Index – trying to wrap my … Read More
A friend of George, II’s was down for a week. You know how that goes, what trying to be the “good host” and all. When in the “useful parent mode” I don’t wake people up until they get up on their own accord. But, let me tell you something, oh my God, can people sleep. … Read More
The market tracked brilliantly (down) to our expectations this week. However, the “Bernanke Paradox” is still driving. Down more than 900 points Friday the Dow decline is unlikely to delay an expected rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming meeting. This morning, a few notes on how the charts – using our Aggregate Index approach – … Read More
Don’t look now, but markets are getting into some really hairy straits. While there had been hope earlier in the week that a rally would grab hold and save the day, hopes were dashed Thursday when the market blew down 368 Dow points and more than 65 on the S&P. It just wasn’t a good … Read More
Hype School Reunion time! While we await this weekend’s “Easter War” window – and having our fill of how the Great Schism of 1054 may still be feeding forward into daily news events now – we have plenty of time to consider ongoing monetization’s of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS). As you will read in a … Read More
George went domain name shopping this week because two pretty good ideas have come along, and subscribers get a first look. It all comes as a spontaneous answer to a problem vexing all of us: What productive something can replace social media? This is not an entirely wasted effort, though it will take some marketing … Read More
Quick market note first: Not much in the way of news to drive things, so the Elliott count (*by a genuine first-class idiot) at the close last night looked like this: Aggregate Index is slightly positive, but not worth firing up Excel over. We still think this could break either way, though I stepped in and … Read More
We like to organize our thinking early Monday. You know, sort out the week of crap ahead, see where the sheep are being led, see “who’s talking their book” on markets, plan for the bumps, and prepare for the chasms. Such orderly thinking leaves additional processor clicks to keep an eye on the exoquartiles of … Read More