Welcome to Fed Day and the afternoon adventure of “How High Will They go?” As we collapse down into the Second Depression (our use of the term ought to be obvious within a year) we spot and tell you how to fix two of America’s dumbest decisions. This won’t be painful, except if you find … Read More
Fascinating historically based rambling-tale of a pseudo-academic logician’s thought processes kicks off today. Sudo apt-get install, shall we? From the top, then. The Vietnam War ended on April 30, 1975. Using this point alone, long wave economics can offer us AMAZING insight into the future of global conflicts. Including a couple of windows for the … Read More
We will give only a few lines to the queen’s burial today. We will – because there is so much media attention on the event – keep this morning’s remarks quite brief. Although, have to tell you, “live coverage” of a death event is somewhat oxymoronic to our clear-headed way of thinking. Yet here you … Read More
I’m really, really big on lean-to’s. Don’t know if I ever told you the story of the one on the east side of our “trailer” or not. But we had this existing wood porch that led to the front door. And it was made from real treated wood. The kind you could get “back in the … Read More
Step right up, folks! With the long-term market peak in, we’re gonna play Crash Call! It’s a game where everyone can win – and everyone can lose. Get the date right? Got the right financial instruments in your pocket? You could be the Big Winner. Why the odds would embarrass Publisher’s Clearinghouse. Except, for one … Read More
Warning: Do NOT read today’s column near an open window. Yeah, it’s that bad. Here we are. Made it to Friday with a short position upside down based on early futures. Not terribly worried about it, though, since we can exit on any short-term rally. It’s NEXT WEEK we need to start thinking long and hard about. … Read More
Word that the national Rail Strike had been averted was the big story here early today. Has us looking at a possible upside pop today and wondering “Is this a ‘Be Long or Wrong’ moment for traders?” A lot of other data has landed, though. Let’s roll through them: Retail Sales This one is the … Read More
Just out, an important press release from the Association of American Railroads: “Freight Railroads and Unions Reach Tentative Agreements, Strike Averted Washington, D.C. – September 15, 2022 – Today, the nation’s freight railroads are pleased to announce that tentative agreements have been reached with the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen Division of the International … Read More
America’s end is at hand when massive financializations replace the production of real goods and services. Which is peering out at us through the data this week. Inflation is high and the early line on a Fed hike next week of 0.75 percent (or more) was over 80-percent. As a result, we have finally figured … Read More
Even if you’re not a high rolling ($40/year) Peoplenomics® subscriber and haven’t followed our 25-years of research into economic long waves and how cyclical economics is a repetitive sport, you at least might find this “big picture” stuff of interest. In our long-term work, what we suggested some weeks ago near the top of Wave … Read More
I don’t usually comment on markets when they are open. But since I closed out my short position (with a portfolio gain for the day of 5.7 percent – I wasn’t all-in”), let’s throw the notion of my much-warned-of Wave III down (iii) getting underway, shall we? Here’s my Elliott view of the Aggregate Index. … Read More
Economics today is not the simple sport it may have been at the peak of the Industrialization of the West. Anymore, it’s a multivariate kluge (or stew, if you like) and ongoing battles for supremacy of power. You can skip ahead to the CPI and other data, but hear me out: Part of looking into … Read More
One of the more interesting “games” played in the Options world is to pick the following month’s strikes (option prices) and simply go long – or short – according to what the playah sees ahead. Options expire on the third Friday of the month – which is this week late. When a market is trending strongly … Read More