We won’t mince here: this weekend’s ChartPack is the ChartPack from hell.
Forty-seven pages of charts, cycle work, war-risk crosscurrents, and a market setup that looks a whole lot less like “soft landing” and a whole lot more like “keep your helmet handy.” Save a spot in the ER for your wallet this week, while Ure at it.
The so-called peace track with Iran looks shaky, leadership in Washington looks increasingly detached from the realities on the ground, and the market structure itself is throwing off the kind of warnings that make complacency look expensive. By the time you get through this one, “buy the dip” may sound more like a slogan than a plan. Unless you’re buying shorts.
Meanwhile, the news flow reads like a bad screenplay with too many producers: we can’t figure a way to write a happy-ending out of what’s piling up in headlines…
So, “Ride ’em cornflakes and get to clicking!“
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Stock pickers pair of dice Kemosabe.
Personally been tightening up the accounts. Have sold out all Stock positions that dont pay divies, well cept for Mongo, and I dont want really wanna deal with the cap gains frm sale of MDB would provide me with.
My latest investment thesis/stock pick is trending up ever so nicely..as expected. This morning upon review the associated Chart (Candles/Daily) show a text book Cup & Handle pattern. Yes homegamers a Cup and Handle chart pattern is bbbbBULLISH. Cherry on top of the WhipCream ? Its a dividend payer @ $1.18 per share or 2.27%yld. Best part of the whole shebangabang ? Their business model is growing each and everyday this ME War goes on.
So just call me the Investment Shiva, cause I am root, root, rooting for mass Destruction of Oil &GasField equipment, dont matter who’s get destroyed – just as long a shit get broken. With mass destruction comes Re-Investments, and ReBuilds on a massive scale. And that good citizens (not you zio worshipers) is how latest invest thesis Gets The Brass Ring.
Market goes to scheisse – and yet the qtrly dividend checks will keep rolling. USD and UST ?
(?) is the problem from where Im sitting, me thinks tRump has done pooped the bed economically, time will tell, but it sure dont look good from here in the cheap seats.
PS – Pain trade is Higher..
No Gold Rings..too expensive for merry go round rides dont ya know.
A couple of FYI’s —
EPA emergency waiver for gasoline starting May 1st
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZyNb6HnWS8
Cosmic event at the end of April
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVdZ1hDCQyg
Trump try’s to help abused middle east countries by iran. Iran plays games by saying I’m sad. Gulf closed continues. Oil 200 a barrel end April. Good bad ugly. Trump good. Iran bad. China ugly
Trump war showed serbia, korea, syria, egypt that any war will fail.
How poor myst iran get to open straight. To last pure Muslim of Iranians descent.
The word of the day is …”mine sweepers”.
The not knowing where the mines are in the Strait – Is the Iranian counter to the US not knowing a cease fire in Lebanon was part of initial demands Iran presented for Peace talks. The know exactly where they are …..
you say “minesweepers”, but I hear “sitting ducks” .
You don’t know much about fiberglass hulls, ceramic engines or the space-time juumping capacity. Above your clearance?
Actually OUR mine sweepers are wood hulled with almost no metal in them (from memory). We only have FOUR actual mine sweepers left and last I read all were deployed to Japan (we retired out the even older ones that were in the Med /Persian Gulf a few years back). Average age of what we have left is about 40 years old too.
We have equiped some of the Littoral Combat Ships for mine sweeping but those are NOT true mine sweeping ships since they are made of metal so don’t work as well, or as safely, as the wooden hulled ships.
My brother Art always played this clip to tell his kids how most leaders would take care of their employees. He told them, “See what he is doing? Be That Guy.”
I think our leaders economy has just arrived at dock and is about to disembark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdmfsG6MFHU
I hope someone whispers something similar into PDJT’s ear, but don’t know who it will be.
must say G you really put a lot more work , dedication and thought into your work than the rest .i just keep it simple . money always finds the best home and the longer im wrong the righter ill be . but respect your dedication
I appreciate that, Len – thank you.
“money always finds the best home and the longer im wrong the broker ill be”
There… fixed it for you.
thx but no thx . another i have read and consider influence or mentor grade is the great W.D. Gann . so block out wrong noise . so apart from those wide front shoes he uses i also have deep respect for G. so heres one for the road , the smart already know and the fools dont listen . why bother . but cheers mate in alooohhhaaa
Ponderings of an old fool. Not George. Me, Egor.
It’s not you it’s me. [was that Seinfeld?]
Not Financial Advice.
Those who resist out of abhorrence to notions of 1929 repeat, or even a lesser Wave ending *crash* due to Nuclear Armageddon, count me in. Both result in end of the world scenarios and … them’s lousy odds kid. That’s Art’s story and I’m sticking with it.
Mrs. E ‘n me are in a rolling transition, having gone very liquid (estate mumbo jumbo fulfillments) and, for the most part, are in cash. When pressed the other time(s) that occurred, during (40) years in the saddle it came with the proviso : I don’t suggest this for anyone, including you [Mr/Mrs/Ms client].
One of the neatest presentations I attended was where a flash dude in Armani urged going 90/10 (or less as to the 10, the brass ring money).
If the 90 did norm, but you lost the 10 hyper aggressive, here’s where you sit.
If 90 did norm and 10 made zero, here’s the math, no big dif.
If the 10 made gonzo returns? That’s living.
An irony is what to do with the gonzo 10 if the to the moon thing happens (pun intended, go NASA)? Spend it or rebalance. When should we send the check or let’s add some 10 back into 90 meat ‘n taters.
If inclined to get nutty, at least your total loss is just 10. Some here refer to lunch money or the “trading” account. Whatever. It’s just 10, right? Otherwise, you should get professional advice. YOLO has, you didn’t survive.
That ends the kindly old fool suggestions (again, from me, not His Georgeness) for the day. To say it again, Not Financial Advice (it _never_ is. [From my attorney to yours] Also, any reference to gonzo should not be construed as referring to Him, it’s a turn of phrase.
https://characters.disney.com/the-great-gonzo
ATL : Tomorrow a spate of 70s breaks out here. Trees are budding and this lends an ole fool to thinking of a pier. Soon. High water remains (it’s a slow bleed) through outflow weir dam, then mill pond, then the defining spillway to an ancient chase-way (which in the day powered a Grain mill and Lumber mill. Them folks were tough, dug with mules and pickaxes. Plus, best the water temp rises, a lot.
I am in contract with a painting Co. to do all the 2nd coat high work. Also my tree cutter friend who will bucket truck some enormous high Red Oak limbs to protect the ManBarn. A couple other kindly contractors are making bank on E. It’s a good thing. We get the pleasure from things done (I am close to catching up on all deferred maintenance (parental) so working on stuff I care about.
Local : went to north Elkhart, IN and pumped the local econ. The money came out of the 10. That’s my plan. Spend it or pump Grandlings 529 plans. Trump account? Sure. Gives me something to fund.
Spring is here. I’m calling it. Enjoy!
Egor, Commodore Retired
~~~ /)/) ~“
love your ATL updates Egor – completely out of kilter with us. we’re swerving towards winter but still blessed with calm, sunny Autumn days. I volunteer on a couple of citizen science projects in Wisconsin and Montana – it’s my happy place when I feel stressed. just tagged a couple of pronghorns and bull elk on the Montana Prairies. beautiful wild country.
My rock solid microwave internet went to sh!t last night. Cell phone internet is working. I have a 50 gig data pad, so this won’t do anything but keep me from streaming. The microwave will work for a while, then drops out. Jinx’d myself bragging on my ISP.
Back in 1999 I lived on Bald Head Island, NC & the only internet access was a microwave DSL link to the mainland. It worked until the wind blew, or it rained.
Today, in my CA 55+ community, my choices are Hard-wired phone line DSL, 25 year-old Comcast coax, or T-Mobile’s 5G home internet service. It works fine, until the only tower that hits my house gets busy from streaming, then it regularly drops out. Like George, there is fiber on the curb, just outside the community. At least, I usually don’t let the dropouts get my BP up.
“.., and we have likely completed the Wave 2 up.
Next week (to be blunt about it) should see markets crater into at least mid-May and possibly even June. That’s where the wave 3 down may end. A small summer rally to Labor Day, or first week of August, which will be our Elliott Wave 4 rally. And then Super Collapse this fall.”
.
My dates are ‘slightly’ different – but, yeah. .,that’s how I see it lining-up also [ if that means anything.] I am not holding any trades at the moment – but am seriously looking at a progression of long expiration options/puts – probably on Monday.
– I have been rather aggressive with my Lunch Money Account – an analyst would declare me reckless., but I am up over 410% – no loosing trades, so far this year. My math and a couple of your charts, along with my gut-instincts have been very accurate so far. Just being a bit cautious right now. Something just doesn’t smell right at the moment. I’ll figure it out.
I see the market failure due to the collapse of the False Peace Talks., and the U.S. and Israel launching renewed attacks. – but something else adds to the flames., just not sure what – possibly from a completely different part of the world ? Assassination? Terrorist attack? I don’t know – but I can ‘feel’ it.
.
Oil at $200+ a barrel is looking more and more like a reality to my eyes. Which will have a continuing ripple effect through our economy and world food production. These constant ripples will hit the news., feeding into the continued stock market sell-off.
– The reality is., that if you cannot process foods by packaging them for delivery, how can they be transported ? And packaging in America is by plastics. Oil. And we are absolutely dependent on it – and the price of those plastics/packaging are going to climb.., adding significantly to the overall cost of store bought food. Ya gotta get it on the shelves to sell it.
– Diesel fuel costs are going to have a major play in most of American’s life style. Though sadly., most Americans just can’t see it. They can’t “walk-it-forward” and the reality is going to slap them up along side the head way too late for them to prepare, much less recover.
[ You see it though.., right?. ]
–
– I approached the negotiations with the “what can I do for you” attitude. It worked out quite well with all four of my major – local – trade partners. I had the feeling it was time to have a trade-talk with my local buddies. The only real ‘problem’ was with the “Crazy Chicken Lady’.., according to her, I have already done way more for her then she has for me. So, that is on-going and in favorable conditions. We’ll see.
In the lower forties and rain all morning., slacking off as I type. We needed the rain.., nice and quiet out. Feels like everyone is taking a deep breath and chilling out today. I am !
Great Sheppard’s’ Pie planned for dinner
“Stay Frosty !”
Still can’t log on..
But……Breakfast burrito……
how many drop by the gas station and they have this delicious breakfast burrito..yet when you try to make it at home it flips and flops and never comes out very good..
well here’s the way I make them in the wastelands…… except for onions and chopped tomatoes..your meats should be precooked..just like they do at the gas station…
I like a large burrito so
3 eggs
a dribble of milk
cheese ( your choice I like Swiss slices)
ham, sausage etc
onions chopped I like mine thin
green peppers chopped
scramble the eggs with a splash of milk in it..I use my egg whisk but a fork will do..but if you want one here they are…I love mine they are perfect for eggs ..
https://www.amazon.com/OYV-multifunctional-Blending-Whisking-Ingredients/dp/B0C49J8X1S/ref=sr_1_23?
1 or 2 flour tortillas.. your making it and you have to eat it so its up to you..
a pan big enough for the tortilla to fit..
grease the pan..you can use spray grease ..of course with most steel pans you preheat the pan..after a minute on high heat put your grease in it..if you use spray grease lift the pan away from the flame then spray it ( the oil seals in the pore of the steel making it more stick proof )..a fine mist spray is volitable.. tgen put back on the flame..
pour your blended egg in the bottom swirl it so it fits the bottom.. after the egg starts to cook..just like any omelet.. put your toppings on it starting with the cheese..ones you spread that deliciousness.. put the tortilla on top.. cook a few seconds more the cheese will begin to melt.. then place your plate over the burrito flip it out onto the plate..
then slide it tortilla down back onto the pan for a few seconds.. this insures the egg on top is finished cooking.. slide it out onto the plate and fold it like you would a burrito or egg roll.. enjoy your perfect breakfast burrito..
no mess or sloppy burrito that falls apart..
On the schedule for next weekend …. thanks!!
Ok…here’s the desert I made for the residents at the facility I work overnight at..
I hope you like it..its what we call Sunday dinner cheese pudding..
1 box vanilla pudding..( or 1 tbsp vanilla )
1 package cream cheese ( I used several because of how many residents there are)
1/2 can sweetened condensed milk
1/8 cup lemon juice ( optional ..I like a slight tang)
1 package white chocolate chips ( or you can make the white chocolate..but chips is what I used)
2 tbsp honey
graham crackers with butter mixed to make a crust..
now lets prepare the filling.. put the cream cheese and sweetened condensed milk and vanilla pudding in a bowl..mix on low till it gets mixed then add the lemon juice..Blend on high till it starts to whip..melt the white chocolate in a double boiler.. put a couple tbs of oil in it to help keep the chocolate liquified.. chocolate is an oil based candy…. I brought my chocolate double boiler from home.. along with my silicone molds.. we can improvise with a favorite recipe..
https://www.amazon.com/Chocolate-Stainless-Silicone-Stirring-Induction/dp/B0FVRJZN8L/ref=sr_1_5_sspa?
fold it into your cream cheese filling..Then.. 2 tbs of honey..
https://www.amazon.com/Tongjude-Silicone-Bakeware-Nonstick-Measuring/dp/B0DH25BTF9/ref=sr_1_13_sspa?
Now the topping.. I used raspberries for the topping because the dietician had raspberries for desert on the use it in your desrt list..
take a couple cups of the fruit… ( you can use most any berry..your the boss of your taste buds)
1/4 cup of sugar
2 tbs of corn starch
1/2 cup of water..
blend it up…
now take two cups of the fruit berries.. use your potato masher smash them up.. for strawberries I slice them instead of smashing them..
mix in a couple tbsp of sugar..mix let this sit..
now take your blended up fruit and put on low heat while stirring..you’ll know when its done it will have the gravy tendency..
set it aside till it cools..now fold in your smashed berries or strawberry slices..
lets put this together.. take your filling.. put it in your silicone Jello mold..on the bottom pack your graham cracker crust crombs..
put it in the freezer for a couple hours until it sets up..
take it out and remove the mold.. cover with your berry sauce..
slice and serve with whipped cream..
the residents are always asking me what I’m making them..now if you dont have sweetened condensed milk.. vanilla yogurt or sour cream can be substituted..
If your using sour cream..you have to add a little sugar..powdered sugar is preferable..
“The only way to win this game is to not play!” I haven’t had a trading loss in decades.
What value is trading if governments have really have opened Pandora’s box?
Hang on to that one last silver dollar, George.
Might get you a new boat.
Stiks
Hmm… did they forget that Iran took control of and landed one of our top secret drones!!!
https://youtu.be/oZlVhmN2Umk?si=9bF_ADlwUOHxMIwk
now the scariest.. at their cost of living these cost pennies where here with our inflated business model the costs are big bucks.. the bottom Ted talk is probably one of the scariest combine that with the club-k system that was built by the company in charge of our ports in a business model ? increase of numbers ..the biggest fear is..did our politicians weaken and allowed threats to enter our country over their desire for money..
https://youtu.be/u2bQSKvZ2qI?si=18cEA973t1R-1HMh
a video representation
https://youtu.be/O-2tpwW0kmU?si=H7dBb87sfPqD11uD
Now the club-k…. the original club k container needed to be manned.. today we have autonomous control allowing Ai to control itself…isn’t that a slight bit scary..
https://youtu.be/81E41ZEKi0g?si=GnXPzBXPsWt_QmUo
It’s hard not to feel uneasy when you look at the bigger picture this represents. We’ve seen incidents…. like when Iran managed to capture and land a U.S. drone…that should have raised real questions about how secure our most advanced systems actually are. At the same time, other countries can produce certain technologies at a fraction of the cost we pay here, which only adds to the sense that the balance is shifting in ways we don’t fully acknowledge that exists.
What worries me most is how these developments intersect with global trade, port infrastructure, and emerging autonomous systems. When you combine low?cost production, container?based weapons concepts that analysts have discussed for years, and the rapid rise of AI?driven autonomy, it creates a scenario that feels like it could be exploited long before the public ever hears about it.
My concern isn’t about any one device or country…..it’s about whether our own political and economic decisions have opened doors we can’t easily close…are the threats already here just waiting to be activated…. When the only drive is for profits for the few, contracts and industry outsourced for more money honey, and international business interests take over the priority of our industrial leaders… it’s fair to ask ourselves whether we’ve allowed vulnerabilities to grow inside our own borders…even with these potential threats facing us ..our politicians are still gone out to lunch.. more interested in what their do store suspense are than the needs of our country..( oh my here comes the solar tower and hand iut solar grid tie systems for every homecas nodes rant for grid security lol air wells.. green scapeing our concrete jungles lol) . The fear I have is that these risks aren’t being taken seriously enough by the people who operate at the highest levels of influence,instead their main concern is the wishes of those donating jobs,vacations,gifts and access to the perversion s that they desire… while the rest of us are left hoping nothing slips through the cracks..
https://www.princeton.edu/~adsera/JLEO.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjsxKmi0OaTAxX_HTQIHWB7FlUQFnoECCMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0hnEsUaH7wuq4faGG0ADI0
“My concern isn’t about any one device or country…..it’s about whether our own political and economic decisions have opened doors we can’t easily close…are the threats already here just waiting to be activated….”
According to Hesiod, when Prometheus stole fire from heaven, Zeus, the king of the gods, took vengeance by presenting Pandora to Prometheus’ brother Epimetheus. Pandora opened a jar left in her care containing sickness, death and many other unspecified evils which were then released into the world.l Though she hastened to close the container, only one thing was left behind – usually translated as Hope, though it could also have the pessimistic meaning of “deceptive expectation”.
From this story has grown the idiom “to open a Pandora’s box”, meaning to do or start something that will cause many unforeseen problems. A modern, more colloquial equivalent is “to open a can of worms”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandora%27s_box
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://scispace.com/pdf/the-political-economy-of-corruption-dugjwmvd3d.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjsxKmi0OaTAxX_HTQIHWB7FlUQFnoECFUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3TYJ1c0qozBBpBnM8yCsW-
I went through Ure chart pack. I’m not really seeing a lot of disagreement between Ureself and TEF’s projections. There are a lot of things going on under the economic hood that haven’t quite bubbled up to the top, but I’m personally starting to see signs of belt tightening, and people running scared.
Given that a lot of my work is related to cleaning up other people’s messes, I am a leading indicator of people being disruptive trying to justify their employment existence. It is definitely getting more pervasive in the current environment. More work for me, until it isn’t. I am also hearing rumors of a major customer laying off an entire crew doing front end work. Not that they didn’t deserve it, but that is end of credit cycle sh!t.
Seeing Jamie Dimon state that it is close to end of cycle, and that it is going to be worse than most expect (three times) in an interview with a Bloomberg correspondent posted on Youtube is kind of an in-your-face leading indicator.
TEF is predicting fireworks around the 24th of this month. It is plausible.
For me, retirement this year would cause me to take a minor haircut, but the break even for retiring a couple of years early would probably be out at age 85 or so by now. Like my brother told me to calm my fears of retirement finance: Well, maybe you won’t live that long.
NORK selling these to the Ayatollah regime would be something to see, or not see.
North Korean military has carried out tests on “special assets” weapons including electromagnetic pulse systems, carbon fiber “blackout” bombs, and upgraded mobile air defense technologies.
“North Korea is also developing carbon fiber “blackout” bombs. These disperse fine graphite filaments over electrical grids and critical infrastructure to cause short circuits in power systems, leading to large-scale outages.”
https://x.com/mountain_rats/status/2042939672217997589
re: Hecate – Greek goddess of the crossroads
feat: “Splashdown”, Gilligan’s Island, S3E22, Feb. 20, 1967
It was a great spectacle on Friday evening. The externally filmed spacecraft separation from the Artemis II capsule could be seen televised as it prepared for atmospheric reentry. Public vessel trackers still note a leisure yacht completed a daytour from its San Diego mooring for 10 hours 27 minutes taking up station a seemingly unique distance from the assigned US Navy Artemis II capsule crew recovery vessel. All’s well and the leisure craft currently shows in the public record as returned to mooring. It’s bracketed by Dark Side and Law and Order on one side, and Occasional Peace, Cheyenne, and El Jefe on the other.
The Gilligan’s Island tv series is said to have used three 1964 Wheeler Yachts as well as one onset mockup. Wheeler Yachts website informs that one of the tv show’s original yachts became wrecked in the treacherous Hecate Strait in a storm during a voyage from Alaska. It was rescued from scrap and refurbished in original detail. Apparently the restored vessel subsequently offered three hour tours about the strait.
Hecate Strait is named after the British Royal Navy vessel HMS Hecate. Its activities recorded on “Archive” indicate an entry to service in 1839 and a first assignment ferrying troops to the Battle of Syria in 1840. Intercepting slaver ships on the west coast of Africa occupied it through the 1850’s. HMS Hecate then arrived at the Pacific Station in 1860 for explorations about what is now Hecate Strait.
The vessel ended up scrapped in 1865 by Castle Shipbreaking Yard headquartered by the Thames beside what’s now the Tate Gallery in Millbank, London from 1843 until the 1941 Blitz. Interestingly the past shipbreaker property appears to coincide with current day Millbank Tower which was London’s tallest building for a time in the 1960’s. The edifice is owned by a pair of Anglo-Iraqi Jewish brothers who made their initial fortune dealing in Russian aluminum in the 1990’s. According to Wikipedia the pair represent the UK’s fourth richest family with an estimated total wealth of £24 billion.
(“The Gilligan’s Island tv series “)
I love the show naked and afraid.. a man a woman put in harsh environments outside their normal and comfort and new to see if they can survive.. then the colony.. another tv show with the same mindset..
https://youtu.be/6Hv4ADUr-0E?si=4X2_GskdVZ_kg2d5
now think about it and studies done by world leaders and their studies…
It’s interesting to think about shows like Naked and Afraid, The Colony, and all the international versions — UK, Australia, South Africa, and more. On the surface they’re entertainment, but they also end up functioning like voluntary social?stress experiments.
Instead of governments or institutions putting people into harsh conditions to study human behavior, these shows get volunteers who sign up for the challenge, the adventure, or even just the hour of fame. And in the process, the producers and government researchers get to observe how ordinary people react when comfort disappears, resources are limited, and group dynamics get pushed to the edge.
It makes me wonder if, in trying to create compelling TV, they may have opened a kind of Pandora’s box like you’ve brought up — discovering more about human resilience, cooperation, conflict, and survival instincts than they originally intended. Not in a sinister way, but in the sense that these shows accidentally reveal how people might respond if society ever faced a real crisis would we survive as a species??
I personally find it fascinating how entertainment sometimes overlaps with the same questions researchers and world leaders study…….
How do people adapt? Can they adapt ?? How do they organize and utilize the resources available ?? Can we still function when everything familiar is stripped away????
Can those survivors recreate the luxuries each and everyone of us depend on for a quality of life or simply surviving the events caused by the greedy nature of opening Pandora’s box ???
Sometimes reality TV ends up showing more about human nature than the producers bargained for.
Send Ginger over 0 lol
This guy pulled a Trump out in California. The inverse of charging too much.
Employee allegedly filmed setting fire to warehouse over unfair wages
A video allegedly capturing the moment the suspect of a giant warehouse fire in Ontario has been released, with an apparent employee taken in custody shortly after it was filmed.
On Tuesday April 8, a fire at a 1.2 million-square-foot Kimberly-Clark inventory holding building went up in flames after 12:30am.
“A video which was allegedly posted to Facebook by an account with the name matching Abdulkarim’s shows a person setting fire to pallets of toilet paper, claiming in the clip: “All you had to do was pay us enough to live.” “