A Cautious Look at Growth

by

Big smoke – not so much fire.  And we’ll pass on where some of that smoke has been blown (ahem!)…

We return to a familiar topic this morning with some fresh data to ponder:  What is “growth” and how is both the media and the political sphere spinning things?

After headlines, of course, and our weekly dozen-plus charts that (we hope!) print future money for us…

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9 thoughts on “A Cautious Look at Growth”

  1. I was at Walmart at 1 pm yesterday afternoon & the place was packed & the carts were full of non food items. This predicts a record breaking holiday selling season. A season for the main line stores mostly…both brick & motor & .com. But, I am predicting lower sales at Amazon. I expect Walmart & Kohl’s to be the biggest winners.

  2. A real estate update. Since the election, we have seen increased buyer activity in the Bay Area. I am not surprised, since a majority of residents lean left and they are elated at the results. I personally have been promoting and boosting on my business social media sites…”The election is over..the World did not end..the stock market did not crash..Now is the time to buy a Home!”

    That little Tweet/Instagram/Facebook/LinkedIn post generated 4 ratified transactions totaling $5 million in sales this past week alone. My conclusion…Buyers and their agents here are not stupid. They can manipulate real estate in the same way the PTB of tech can manipulate their own stock valuations.

    Buyers and agents in large markets …me included…since I represent both buyers and sellers (just not on the same transaction)…knowingly or not…used the election and higher interest rates to pause the market enough to cause a mini panic. What did that accomplish?

    It caused Trump to tweet nasties to the FEDS Interest rate escalation. That in turn, made some economists get on that bandwagon and say that rising interest rates are slowing down our economy. And this week..the FED itself said it may re-think its December rise.

    Here in the Bay Area the rise in housing prices was way ahead of salary and income increases and the rising interest rates were exacerbating that gap. We NEEDED a pause and that resulted in a correction of $100,000 off of mid to high priced homes in just the past 3 months.

    That may seem a lot in any other market. But in my world, where the average priced home in the mid Peninsula/Silicon Valley is $1.6 million+, that 6% decrease is not that much….especially to those sellers that own free and clear or Bought their home 10 or more years ago for far, far less.

    As quick as the correction happened, it now seems to be recovering just as fast..with smart buyers buying the lower priced homes before the rest of the world catches on. Crazy industry huh?

  3. Hi George, This is off-topic but I’ve noticed that you’re going toward a “cleaner” look, where there’s very little on a given page – not even a bunch of links in plain sight. I suppose this is needed for those who read the site on their phones, but it’s not good for those of us who have proper screen real estate. It’s great to see every link in plain sight and click away as the heart desires. That’s my opinion and others may differ. I really liked the design from a year or two ago, and I don’t have any good ideas as to how to keep everyone happy. Just my thoughts, FYI.

    At least we get to read something interesting each day!

  4. George, it would be nice to see a 30 day GOLEM Chart plotted on the US Market Index. Long term is not needed since only what we do tomorrow is important. 30 days would give a little history along with the current GOLEM direction call.

  5. Monday morning. Can TQQQ go to 60 this week. GOLEM says buy, TQQQ chart show a weak buy. I have until tomorrow to decide. Any comments?

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