A Backward Take on Housing – Decel II

by

The Case Shiller Housing report is out.  Just remember as you read this press release that it’s for completed home sales.  Homes are often on the market a month, or two.  Can it be a month to get funding, closing data, inspections, and title called up?  See it myself.  So, when you read this, remember it’s at least one month behind reality and possibly two…

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 13.0% annual gain in August, down from 15.6% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 12.1%, down from 14.9% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted a 13.1% year-over-year gain, down from 16.0% in the previous month.
Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in August.
Miami led the way with a 28.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 28.0% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 21.3% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending August 2022 versus the year ending July 2022.

Then zooming in tighter:

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -1.1% month-over-month decrease in August, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.6%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.9%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.3%. In August, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments.

ANALYSIS
“The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued in our report for August 2022,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index rose by 13.0% for the 12 months ended in August, down from its 15.6% year-over-year growth in July. The -2.6% difference between those two monthly rates of change is the largest deceleration in the history of the index (with July’s deceleration now ranking as the second largest). (Emphasis added)

In the price chart:

Quite remarkably, the bad news about housing helped the Dow futures a bit – since bad housing means the Fed in a week might not be so inclined to raise rates.

But that’s a fool’s game if there ever was one.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

14 thoughts on “A Backward Take on Housing – Decel II”

  1. Generally speaking it’s best to trade properties at lows Vs highs. Let it collapse.

    Sold signs are still flying up in my area. We’re getting a large influx of Indians. Maybe they have money?

  2. Yep new times in the world . We have had all the ism things . Now we have Americanism !!! Lie lie and lie and lie and rig and rig and rig . And your ruling class of guru economist just say happy days !!! Sark it up

    • Yeah yeah Lennster – how you like Ure Banks Telling you what to do ?

      Linking Ure bank account (s) to Ure carbon footprint ?

      Face it ya wanker – Ure a helpless and hopeless slave.

      Question being..is that an improvement, a step up from being a Prisoner..https://youtu.be/J3gsEObE8OQ

  3. In the principles and rules of gann . Do not become impatient or change your view without concrete logical proof . Short the guts out of it everything. !!!! Deflation coming up baby . Insert everything including theFED . They are closing down !! Having a sale

  4. The FED is a redundant organisation nobody wants their product . Pieces of paper you gotta pay for that are worthless. Try selling a treasury nana pastrami !!! It’s all over Jerome . Nobody buys your lies anymore

  7. This is the first time the home sales looked like a top was in in the past 15 years. If you can get out from under your mortgage debt, your window of opportunity is closing fast.
    One or two more interest hikes is going to set off a liquidation chain reaction like we saw in the early eighties. I worked relatively cheap, stayed out of debt, and went where there was work, so I didn’t suffer the way I saw the debt slaves did during that time frame. We may be faced with a replay of the dark side of Reagonics without the upside, coming up shortly.

  8. What looked like a minor sea change is turning into a tsunami for the midterms:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/draft-do-not-publish-oz-odds-winning-pa-soar-after-historic-fetterman-debate-meltdown

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gop-could-gain-7-seats-senate-50-seats-house-gingrich-says

    Not that I really care for OZ or Gingrich, but you better get used to the R good old boys being back in the limelight.

    Biden has made mental competence an issue with even the most deluded of voters.

    I was hoping to keep the national assemblies split between parties, with enough Libertarians, Greenies, and Consumer advocates left to keep the mainstream lawyer-gang legislators somewhat less dishonest. Looks like we will be seeing another run on the treasury from the Other gang. Get out yer wallets.

    • “you better get used to the R good old boys being back in the limelight.”

      That’s adorable. You think there’s a difference between the Republican and the Democratic “good ol’ boys club…”

      We could always elect real conservatives…

      McConnell is pouring millions of dollars into Alaska to try to re-elect Republican Lisa Murkowski over her Constitutional republican competition. In the meantime, Murkowski is endorsing Democratic candidates both in Alaska and all over the PNY. (Note that in 21st Century American politics, uppercase and lowercase letters mean something…)

      Kelly Tshibaka is a Constitutionalist and as a long-time Inspector General, has little tolerance for either good ol’ boys or political corruption. A vote for her is a vote against McConnell, which I am totally okay with…

  9. ya know George, the lady called me about my brand new town home I’m moving into to start chapter 10 of my life, titled ~ Truly, I am Blessed and Highly Fortunate ~

    she said the water meters won’t be tested until the 10th. so your move in date is now pushed to 11/11/22. I laughed and said of course it is. she said im sorry. I said please don’t be. because this is normal for me. she said having to wait? I said no, 11/11/22 is a series of master numbers. perfect for the beginning of my next chapter of life. she said I uhhh don’t know what that means. but I’m happy your Okay with it. I Laughed and said, eh my life is just like that. it’s functions on its own timing of things. kinda like when someone close to me said the other day, I think I’m getting sick. I said you think your turning into a polar bear? she said how could be a polar bear silly? I said your just tired. you need to rest. you can’t be sick anymore than you can be a polar bear. she laughed and said, I’m going to take a nap. she messaged me 4 hours later and said you were right? I said what. she said I woke feeling great, ran into the bathroom and looked. I’m not a polar bear. she said thank you. I said what? I didn’t do anything. it’s like me and money. I’m a money magnet and a magnet for rich and famous and wealthy people. that is just who I am. I always get the front row spot at the grocery store. I already know I’m going to get it. just like winning and moving into my new house on 11/11/22 because that is how life is for me. I live a life things such as these in life, because I’m just Andy. and that is how life is for me.

    Great news about housing. Because last time I heard, ‘Andy buys houses.” So it shouldn’t be too much longer before that becomes a reality, actuality.

    Had a vision in meditation that bitcoin hit $102,976. Certainly not trading advice. Not sure what day. Saw a few other coins actually out performed bitcoin in percentage of growth. When? Soon. Do as you like though. I am.

    And…. I started writing today in chapter 11 of my life so it fits nicely.

    I’m not a polar bear either and i cant be one.

    I’m just Andy,

    The way maker, the promise keeper, the miracle worker, the light in the darkness.

    how could I been anything less than who? I am.

    I operated on God’s conscious stream.

    • If you all this lined up with when I joined the military, a life changing experience where I went from a homeless kid on drugs to a highly decorated honorably discharged veteran. Your mind would spin with synchronicity. Mine is. It’s also lined up with the day I came to Christ. Another life changing experience. Wheee when i came out of the water on my baptism,
      everyone standing fell down amd said it felt like they got hit by lightning. They had so much static electricity on them everyones hair was standing straight up. .the Pastor said whooaaaaa never seen that happen before. Hahahhaha And on that day I will have 1000 days clean and sober.

      This is a life changing experience I’m sure as well. Hahahaha. There is literally over 1000 juxtapositions that I can see. Eveytime I doubt THE DUDE He does stuff like this. He did say “watch this shit.’ Hahahahaha

      WOW!

      A new chapter indeed. Fuck. I’m having so much fun!

  10. If you all this lined up with when I joined the military, a life changing experience where I went from a homeless kid on drugs to a highly decorated honorably discharged veteran. Your mind would spin with synchronicity. Mine is. It’s also lined up with the day I came to Christ. Another life changing experience. Wheee when i came out of the water on my baptism,
    everyone standing fell down amd said it felt like they got hit by lightning. They had so much static electricity on them everyones hair was standing straight up. .the Pastor said whooaaaaa never seen that happen before. Hahahhaha And on that day I will have 1000 days clean and sober.

    This is a life changing experience I’m sure as well. Hahahaha. There is literally over 1000 juxtapositions that I can see. Eveytime I doubt THE DUDE He does stuff like this. He did say “watch this shit.’ Hahahahaha

    WOW!

    A new chapter indeed. Fuck. I’m having so much fun!

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