The Fed was a Non-Event – Now What?

That is the question today. Asia was relatively “chill” overnight, save the KOSPI which is almost down to 5,900.

But this gets me to first things: My consigliere called Wednesday to remind me to put a book by on my reading list. Wang Huning’s Book: “America against America” (1991) – on Amazon here.

Here’s the “moving piece” you might not find elsewhere: On Saturday he was the top Chinese official who accompanied Kim Jong Um on an unannounced day trip visit to China, the Chinese Foreign Minister apparently was also there but was clearly in a secondary role.

Huning appears to have spent the entire day with Kim.  (umm…. Xi met with Kim Jong Um in June when he, Xi,  made a State Visit to North Korea)   Per the South China Morning Post this probably (our bet) indicates that China will be cancelling the Trump visit to China.

Our expectation? Likely the first ripple before the big waves of change.  In our Over-the-Horizon software work – and from others in the future-sensing field, we get the idea that by Thanksgiving (or the day after, a half-day of trading Friday ther 27^th) that the world will be a vastly different place.

Enjoy the normalcy while you can. There’ve rustling in the bushes:

Taiwan published a map identifying 53 Chinese military and government vessels operating from waters south of Japan to the Philippines, including 34 warships and the aircraft carrier Liaoning; Beijing describes the carrier’s activity as routine training.

North Korea fired approximately 10 short-range ballistic missiles Thursday from Wonsan toward its eastern waters, according to South Korea’s military, following renewed threats involving border broadcasts and weapons deployments.

Now imagine the Pacific theater going hot just as Iran ramps…

3D: Daily Data Dose

We have a data trifecta to go with the hadh browns today.

Let’s roll out GDP first:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026 (July, August, and September), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were increases in investment, consumer spending, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Then, how about the Personal Income Fairy Tale?

Personal income increased $54.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $52.7 billion (0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.1 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $113.0 billion in September. Personal saving was $911.1 billion, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.8 percent.

Last, but not least, pick from the Drought map or the Unemployment filings to round out your breakfast.

[release pending]

News Compressor: ON

Thursday’s setup is the arrival of financial consequences alongside escalating security risks.

The Federal Reserve is not providing the monetary relief investors might prefer. The AI industry is demonstrating that capital expenditure and cash generation are becoming two very different things. And the Gulf conflict is producing an unusual combination of diplomatic outreach and warnings about further military operations.

Squinting at the Front Page

GULF — Diplomacy and Preparations for More War
American officials have warned several Middle Eastern allies to prepare for possible renewed strikes against Iran after the November 3 U.S. elections, according to diplomats cited by AP, although President Trump has made no final decision. Reports of new diplomatic outreach involving Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials suggest Washington is simultaneously exploring negotiations and maintaining military options. By next Wednesday, constitutional lawyers and arms dealers should all be busy, whisper the digital tea leaves.

 FEDERAL RESERVE — The Hawkish Hold
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest-rate range at 3.75%–4.00% Wednesday by a 10–2 vote, with governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase. The official statement described economic activity as strong, capital investment as robust, and inflation as elevated. Tightening bias is alive. Globally, no panic noticed – give it a week.

 AI FINANCE — The Cash-Flow Divide Arrives
Alphabet (corporate website) reported negative quarterly free cash flow of $9.07 billion as AI infrastructure spending accelerated, while Microsoft (corporate website) generated $18.6 billion in positive free cash flow and reported strong Azure growth. Alphabet shares fell sharply in after-hours trading while Microsoft rose, and Nasdaq futures were down approximately 1% early Thursday. Watch the sector leaderboard for changes. The key distinction will be whether investors punish AI capital spending broadly or increasingly distinguish companies generating positive free cash flow from those consuming it.

THAT TRAIN IN  SPAIN — 68 Dead
At least 68 people died in Wednesday’s collision between two high-speed trains near Urda, Spain, with 53 people still hospitalized Thursday morning, including 15 in critical condition. Transport Minister Óscar Puente said a computer malfunction disabled a safety system and that a central command center subsequently authorized a train to resume without speed restrictions despite an active stop signal; the investigation continues. Safety questions escalating.

Inside Pages

Israel — Election deadlock deepens. Updated projections put Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc at 53 seats, the Eisenkot-led opposition at 48, and Arab-led parties at 19, while Netanyahu’s party has made unsupported allegations of election theft. Political uncertainty escalating. We’re more worried about Iran making a strike in the void.

U.S. Elections next week.  Federal voter investigations expand. A Reuters investigation identified more than 100 federal subpoenas seeking records involving tens of thousands of voters in at least 13 states, substantially expanding the known scope of the administration’s noncitizen-voting inquiries.

Brazil — Defeated candidate rejects election result. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the United States and declared himself Brazil’s rightful president-elect despite losing to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, offering no evidence to substantiate his claim.Is there a  Spanish “book of Trump” we missed?

U.S. Coastal Flooding — Both coasts affected. Wednesday’s exceptionally high tides flooded streets, homes and businesses in California, Florida and the Carolinas, with record water levels reported in several locations and additional flooding possible through the weekend. Who will break “rising sea levels and “warming”?

South Carolina — Nuclear laboratory fire. A fire at Savannah River National Laboratory triggered a site-area emergency Wednesday evening, but officials extinguished the blaze, lifted restrictions by 9:45 p.m with no detectable radiological contamination.

Ebola — U.S. airline rules challenged. Airline trade groups have asked the CDC to reconsider a November 3 passenger-declaration requirement connected to travel from Congo, while the CDC’s October 28 update says no associated U.S. cases have been confirmed. Remember our “one plane ride from pandemic” model.

Ukraine War Fallout:  EU energy ministers are meeting today with gas storage approximately 75% full versus 83% a year earlier, while wholesale gas prices have recently reached their highest levels since 2022.

Overreach Strikes Again: NY Governor Kathy Hochul signed legislation Wednesday prohibiting specified unsafe chatbot behaviors involving minors, with enforcement provisions taking effect January 1. Have pen, will rule.

And there’s a larger issue relevant to our VOHA/C2S AI work: government increasingly wants to regulate not merely what AI systems do, but how they are permitted to behave. That’s a significant distinction. The law is aimed at commercial AI companions interacting with minors, not experimental AI research generally, but the regulatory philosophy could spread. Do AIs have free speech rights?  They were, after all, created as children of programmers…

One You Can Bet On — Prediction-market criminal charges laid. Utah filed felony charges against Kalshi and its co-founders, intensifying the dispute over whether federal derivatives regulation overrides state gambling restrictions.

Can HR Check LinkedIn?  The Federal Trade Commission ordered major retailers, airlines and delivery platforms to explain how personal data influences consumer prices and worker compensation.

Around the Ranch: Thanks, Witches!

Let’s do the event, first.

Clube and Napier did the real pioneering science in their books.  I know – who???

Bill Napier and Victor Clube are prominent British astrophysicists who formulated the theory of Coherent Catastrophism. This theory proposes that Earth’s history, ancient civilizations, and major environmental upheavals have been heavily dictated by atmospheric cosmic dust and periodic bombardments from giant comets or their remnants (such as the Taurus complex and Encke’s comet)

Now I need you to pause and feel the word “upheavals” because one theory holds that a comet impact blew apart on the way “in” and those pieces formed impact craters known as The Finger Lakes. That is only a theory.

In the scenario, multiple fragments struck the region in rapid succession, excavating elongated depressions that later filled with water, while shock waves and meltwater helped reshape the surrounding landscape. But, not everyone buys it. The prevailing scientific explanation is that repeated advances of continental glaciers deepened existing river valleys, carving the long, narrow basins that became today’s Finger Lakes when the ice retreated.

But comet fragment impacts hitting regions hard enough to “throw recently buried dea up from the ground?  Intriguing notion, Captain.

Toasted Witches

Witches have had a rough time of it over the centuries. In medieval and early modern Europe, a woman could be accused of witchcraft for knowing too much about herbs, owning an unpopular cat, having a bad temper, or simply being disliked by the neighbors. Between the 15th and 18th centuries, tens of thousands of people—mostly women—were executed in witch trials. Evidently, being an independent thinker was even more dangerous back then than it is today.

Why Tomorrow Matters

It has been several decades since I talked to Richard (*the warlock) about how “flying” was ancient code-talk for use of hallucinogens.  But our interests have shifted a bit.

Nowadays, we look at Halloween as the one time of year when we can readily pick up story home decorations.

One example:  In our “tiki-themed” dining room, you can say “Alexa, turwn on tiki.”  When you do, one of these pretty good little “fire pots” will light up. It casts a light onto a topical scene that fits the room and the flicker is great,  Onb the other cabinet in the room, another (which will be named tock for Alexa)  will power up.

They will be the maraschino on the room’s South Seas effect. Magic light.

Elaine also says it’s a little bit freaky to watch me hold my hand “in the fire.”  See, these “fire pots” are nothing more than four bits of reddish (ultra-fine) fabric blowing above about a 3-watt LED light source, powered by a small muffin-type fan.

More to Come

One of my retirement projects is to finish “theming” our house. Everywhere I look, I want to see a “story.”

Like a 3- foot wide wall in the media/lkiuvuing room.  At the top are two old three-stringed Asia antique guitar-like instruments.  This week, I will mount the modern electric guitar (a glittery one) under those.  The wall’s story?  “Progress.”

So for all the decorating ideas? We wanted to simply say, “Thanks Witches.”

Pirates and the Haunted House wouldn’t be the same without ‘em, either.

Write if you get spooked,

George@Ure.net

PS With ther server move, the odd reader comment may get lost along the way. We should be pack at full strength (200 proof) tomorrow.