Schedule Note: Before we get into actual content, a word about schedules around here.
This morning’s report will be (blissfully) short and on point.
No Peoplenomics report tomorrow and the normal Saturday report will not be posted until about noon Sunday. After almost 68-years, I’m trying to kick-it this week.
I’ll be back to my usual long-winded, arrogant and snarfy self next week after I recover a few of the pounds that the Oatmeal Diet has taken off. Now, where were we?
Oh, yes…
Does The Past Hint at the Future?
There are a million and one different ways to look at the future. Some people evolve intricate computer models, looking at shifting linguistics and pronounce likely outcomes. Others simply light up a doobie, get out into space-between-the-ears and integrate lots of inputs from a variety of sources. In place of cannabis, you can join the Oracle at Delphi and get ripped on petrochemical fumes, found in certain caves.
Another way is to look up at the stars. My friend Arch Crawford’s Crawford Perspectives is always of interest.
There’s some great work that’s been done on Spiral Calendars, too. Check out the 1900’s work by Christopher Carolan in the book “ The Spiral Calendar and Its Effect on Financial Markets and Human Events by Christopher L. Carolan (1996-07-03)“. $43 bucks, but you’re a high roller so go for it.
Then there’s my friend G.A. Stewart (I misplaced his number and owe him a phone call – hint hint) who looks at the work of accepted seer Nostradamus and come up with a dandy website “The Age of Desolation.” Like my own re-reading of Biblical aspects of prophesy, Stu’s work presently is focused on the key role of Syria and environs on our future.
Now, let’s fast-forward to my own work on how economies tend of repeat extremes of behavior when similar, massive, socioeconomic shifts take place.
What we’ve been tracking over on our (not quite free) www.peoplenomics.com website is explained by this chart.
What it suggests to me is that the market will have a good-sized pullback before the major run at the new wild all-time high.
The problem with this is that it’s like a financial “collision avoidance radar” after a fashion. It can sometimes hint at what’s ahead, but mostly it doesn’t offer any particular or key insights into what’s really driving contemporary events.
You just look at the green arrow and wonder “will there be a tradable correspondence?:
Yep, damn fine question, that.
So here’s the approach: Build a “threat list” and we have exactly that and it lives on my computer as a popup with Sticky Notes.
Our leading candidates for a short-term market melt down in the next month include the following:
1. The Fed meeting in December could be a shocker. Like no rate increase. That would toss the markets because the Fed is presently talking up the idea of a modest hike. But what if they up things half a point and not just a quarter? The ^TNX was up to 2.34 yesterday from 1.75 a month, or so, back. Yikes – is the world ready for a HALF POINT HIKE?
2.Second jitter is Syria. What IF the Russians, who are already making those Brussels Bureaubunglers nervous by moving missiles around, decide to move aggressively into Ukraine…or even pick a fight with the outgoing “Peace Prizer” who may not be as tough a negotiators as the incoming President-Elect? Or what if the Prizer sabotages the seeming agreement between Putin and Trump to go after ISIS jointly? Oh-oh…no sleep for the Nasty Nest of Regime-Change promoting Neocons at the State Department. Wonder if Trump will clear them out?
3.Attacks on America’s soft underbelly – shopping malls – always come around this time of the year but what if the intelligence works out to be correct for a change?
4.More major quakes – with two Super Moons to go this year, we can still shake, rattle and collapse. The Japanese just had another 6.9. By my own non-scientific thought processes, if you’re having major quakes on one side of the Pacific Plate, at some point (though on geologic time-scales) you’re bound to have action on the other side of the plate…
5.Then my son called and explained how totally unprepared the U.S. really is for a killer pandemic disease. Seeing as he’s an infectious disease specialist in sexually transmitted diseases, I take his detailed warnings as quite serious. He’s finally getting around to finishing his book “Living in the Hot Zones” which covers the waterfront from rehab centers to bath houses to low-income housing (where Norwalk breaks out periodically). I’ll let you know when it’s done…
So any of these things going “terrible/bad” would set off a major market decline. Or, maybe one of the Too Big To Fail SIFIs (systemically important financial institutions) actually collapses and we see if the continuous settlement of derivatives – put in place after the Bank Herstatt derivatives failure in 1976 – can be something the world can depend on to “forever work.”
Ain’t nothing forever, but then you know that. To everything, there is a season, repeat.
Press Release du Jour
Existing Housing sales due out at 10. Don’t expect any big surprise there.
Odds are fair the S&P will cross the 2,200 line today. Maybe Dow 19,000, too.
Just remember, a lot of this is based on two factors.
One is money fleeing the collapse of bond prices (as yields rise). Hot money will always flow to highest returns.
The other is the Fed money supply, which is up moire than 15 ½% in the past two years measured at the M1, seasonally-adjusted level.
Which means there is more paper chasing essentially the same pile of paper. So, naturally, prices will rise.
But ask what happens should the Fed raise a HALF not a QUARTER.
That could cause a short-term drop, but we have evidence from the 1929 event that even a Fed hike won’t cool the market.
That will just drive more bond money out of bonds into appreciating stocks even faster and then we finish the blow –off next year.
A Few Headlines
These set us to thinking:
The part is over when department “Joe Biden is the only one who can put the Democratic Party back together: Ex-DNC chairman says. Gads.
Slow on the Uptake, the recently dressed down MSM has decided that Jared Kushner is Trump’s Secret Weapon. Huh? That is a secret? Oh boy…
And in the “let bygones be democrats” file, we read Kellyanne Conway: No plan to pursue charges against Clinton.
Drat.
Still the Left is gleefully watching the popular vote recount as this will lead to the attack on the Elector College Electors mid December.
\Odd coincidence? Our septic tanks get pumped today. Universe knows all, sees all…
Hey Look! Trump is already improving the made-in-USA economy!
http://heatst.com/politics/orders-for-trump-voodoo-dolls-surge/?mod=mktw
Speculation on my part, but election night what if Trump worked out a deal with the Clinton campaign that he would not go after the Clinton’s if Hillary conceded the election to him? And the Clinton’s would go quietly into the night and not be or get involved in future politics and stay out of the limelight.
I wrote a blog post a few days after the election and copied it below. After today’s New York Times meeting, it seems I had it right…Trump subscribed to the 4 D’s of propaganda during his campaign…Dismiss,Distract,Distort and Dismay…and it worked…unfortunately…Below is my two week old post.
Donald executed a strategy aimed at a certain demographic, but, I believe “The Donald” was just pandering for a vote…saying what people wanted to hear and not what really needed to be said. The irony is that the Trump voters wanted an outsider…a non politician…but instead, got just the opposite.
All Trump did was mirror a key demographic and his “message” was a type of manipulative rhetoric that he thought would resonate and attract a vote. But does he believe and embrace the hatred, bigotry and misogyny that he spread this campaign? I refuse to believe that…I would hope that as a dad to what seem like good children…he is better than that…He channeled his inner reality star personality and had to “act”, tell white lies, con, and pander to this key demographic to gain their “trust”. So…In reality…He is no different from any other politician.
For example…His vitriol against Hillary was part of his campaign till the bitter end…His threats to lock her up were heard loud and clear…Then…in his victory speech, he lauds her contributions and said…”We owe her a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country” Now…historically, the victor always is gracious to the challenger..but this sounded an awful lot like a sincere statement…Remember, he was a big supporter of the Clintons not too long ago.
Will he really have her indicted? I doubt it…Will he build a wall? Don’t count on it…Will he renegotiate NAFTA and cancel TPP…not without a fight from both sides…will he deport illegals? He will walk back on that too. ..Listen, He is not a dictator…he is part of a democratic system that requires consensus from Congress. Bottom line…His bombast was just a typical politicians empty campaign promises on steroids.
I still have faith in our system and if anything else…this campaign will make US citizens more involved in our government…more aware of who they elect and more attune to the important and relevant issues that affect us on the macro and micro level of our country.
One more thing…Trump voters…don’t get too complacent and gloat too much with your “victory” …Hillary Clinton received more votes…There are more of us that supported her than him…and there is a lot of pressure for Trump to gain the trust of a majority and that hopefully will include an across the aisle conciliation on many of the issues that we on the other side find extremely important as well. In the end, we must accept the results…and for The betterment of our great country…I sincerely hope for the best…
HEY WHY DON’T YOU JUST MOVE TO CANADA AND SHUT UP ALREADY! WE HAVE ENOUGH DUMMIES TO DEAL WITH AND EVEN ONE LESS WILL REALLY HELP OUR COUNTRY. YOUR ATTITUDE REALLY STINKS, EITHER BACK UP OUR NEW PRESIDENT OR LEAVE….GOOD RIDDANCE
Ya vol mein Kommandant! So ironic that I publish a very thoughtful piece on the election and you scream in all caps a ultimatum for me to shut up! I can see that you are indeed a fascist Trump supporter. You ARE the Demographic he was targeting. So glad to meet your acquaintance.
I will be staying right here in the lovely confines of my comrades in California…thank you…but…you may want to pack your bags because your so called savior is already backing down on just about every campaign promise he made…just like I predicted. The future Huckster in Chief just said climate change is partially a man made reality…he won’t pursue locking Hillary up…..quote..”“I don’t want to hurt the Clintons, I really don’t,’’ Mr. Trump said during a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times. “She went through a lot and suffered greatly in many different ways, and I am not looking to hurt them at all. The campaign was vicious.”
He is keeping two huge parts of Obamacare…which means he will end up having to keep Obamacare to make that work…He will “re-brand-it” and call it the ACA…which is what it is really called…except his constituents will be too distracted to realize that.
He has backed off his deportation plans for Muslims…and his fence has been absent from his recently revealed first first year plan.
There will be more broken promises I am sure…Bottom line…Hillary so far has received 1.5 million more votes than trump…so by sheer numbers, your Huckster in Chief is outnumbered…Now add the fact that 90 million were so disgusted with both candidates that they too outnumber Trump. That means that he only has less than a third of the support of American voters…as it stands right now…Deal with that!
I think you mis-read Mr. Ure.
BS, sums up your arrogant post! We’ve had the ‘Hope and Change,’ and shuck and jive for EIGHT LONG years!
I wish a very Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family, George, as well as to all the readers.
Thank you, and to ALL of you as well
Those sneaky bastards Wizerd, they just changed from Black Muslim cloth to white and reprinted.
Just because it would be unexpected and out of left field, I’m speculating Trump will nominate HRC to the Supreme Court, sometime in late 2017 or early 2018. Declining to pursue an email lawsuit would be a first step to his redemption of her.
Not likely? Of course it’s not likely, but look at her Timetrak picking up right around that time. (I usually navigate to the Timetrak info from the CoasttoCoastam site.) What better way to remove her from the political scene and leave her frustrated and relatively powerless for the rest of her career? This, of course, would be assuming Trump, prior to that time, had been able to place two or more Supremes on the bench who are more to his tastes and leanings.
Que sera, sera.
Happy Thanksgiving to URE all,
I’m glad we’re not in Denmark or any EU country right now.
I’m visiting sister in New Mexico, sheeple are a little nervous, not as bad as TX. DFW, TX is more nervous and edgy be careful around Dallas if your for Trump. Fort Worth is and always has been the better place. God Bless URE all.
Well lets face it Trump is one of the 1% and I see now he’s getting cheek to cheek with good ole Mitt another 1%, and of course we aren’t going to investigate the Clinton Foundation run by the Clintons for the Clintons (simply another crime family)because we all belong to the 1% class and we wouldn’t want to be a traitor to our class now would we?.@@@
Trump winning was like the canary in the mines. All Is not well!!! At the start of the election a bar owner said things would be different. The common worker was talking about the election. Always in the past elections come and go and you would not know it in the bar. People are hurting pure and simple.
We have to learn there is no free lunch. There is no such thing as a cornucopia. This Country was founded on freedom. People fought and died for freedom. We have to quit giving up freedom for the so called security of the state taking care of us.
The story of the Little Red Hen should be required reading for everyone. What is the purpose of working hard if you can not keep what you earn. I Know people who can not afford to work. They make more money by not working. The government is nothing more than a parasite. It produces nothing! When a parasite gets big enough it kills the host!
The United States has turned into a service economy. Service is great but it does not create new wealth. We are surviving on the fat of past production. Fat only lasts so long.
Not picking on Mark but look at how cali counties voted, almost split in half.West coast dem mid and Sierra Repub-rich and poor.Time for the state of Jefferson or the free state of Sierra Nevada.A over priced train,fish over water to farmers,billions of money to fight fires that could have been prevented by proper forestry and logging practices and runaway welfare and food stamps.i can barely live in a state that my family’s settled in 1847! The Dems up in Sac have run this into the ground-and and like the drought,nothing will grow now!