When there is a “known” event of major magnitude on the way, markets often hint in advance what to expect. This is most often done with price changes. Markets running up ahead of an event are called “Buy the rumor” and the decline following is often labeled the “Sell the news” aspect. With (at best) … Read More
Much to cover before “off to the Courthouse” to pay our 2023 Property Taxes after a busy Thursday. Let’s begin by inspecting the Employment Situation Report (EmpSit) just out from Labor, shall we? “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor … Read More
Braced for a Crash-lection? Might consider it! The early futures were telling us little that we didn’t know after the market fell on its nose more than 500 Dow points Wednesday. As the Fed not only raised 3/4 percent but said another 1/2 percent was baked in the cake – and they will entertain ideas … Read More
If the first Industrial Revolution was water and steam power, while the second has been electricity and network-pushed, what will NEXT look like? It’s not a silly question, at all. And since the World may fall apart based on global economic consequences of War, Sanctions, Asset-Stripped Money, and little side issues like a die-off and … Read More
There is a really neat way of apprehending the nuances of futuring (watching for Observer expectations) that we kicked around Monday. It involves using a basic Boolean “truth table” to figure out where the odds are. If you want to skip this part, the bottom line (as of futures prices at 4:35 AM) looked like … Read More
Brevity makes another failed comeback attempt. As we are now in the best “working weather” of the year in East Texas. With the opening of the deer season just ahead, a week of fence line work, posting “No Hunting” signs and purple no-hunting paint looms. Fortunately, today and tomorrow look to be almost “economic news-free” … Read More
I thought it would be fun to roll through an example of how a simple workflow process can be used to tackle almost any home handy-bastard project. Project Planning A number of projects were underway here this week, but they all have something in common: They each went through a planning process where as much … Read More
Just 10-days to Elections and 26-days until the other turkeys show up. And while we enter the solar shortage period of winter in the northern hemisphere, it’s a dandy time to look at energy prospects. You see, a reader did some quickie calculations – that I haven’t been able to fault – which looks at … Read More
Like the NY Fed pumping 2.183 TRILLION in Repos out the door today to 99 bigger than little people players? I don’t expect honesty or a refund on short losses. But enforcement against trading firms that show inconsistent quotes to retail traders would be nice. How much will they dump in Monday when this POS … Read More
While the Dow was up to the task of pimping out the “Hyperinflation vs. the Fed” narrative Thursday, the remainder of the market is less so. Consider – at the outset our view that since the November 8, 2021 high, the market did a major (1) down and more recently (costing me thousands) we had the … Read More
Two stories have our eye as the sun makes another rerun. One is the Gross Domestic Product. And since we have had two consecutive quarters of declines, we’re in a Recession. Which the National Bureau of Economic Research doesn’t want to admit to, since they argue the metric is wrong. (“When you don’t like the … Read More
When there is talk of nukes flashing off, the one critical vulnerability you will already need to have hedged is electricity. People don’t generally consider how utterly reliant the world is on electricity. Even more so in the past five-years, or so, as the iniquitous “wall warts” have become the USB charging ports on damn … Read More
The Case Shiller Housing report is out. Just remember as you read this press release that it’s for completed home sales. Homes are often on the market a month, or two. Can it be a month to get funding, closing data, inspections, and title called up? See it myself. So, when you read this, remember … Read More