TL;DR: Yawner in the pre-open as markets recalibrate post-Fed. The Future is challenging to sketch in, and a four-seasons earthquake near Japan overnight.
Markets Hit Snooze
This is really a “now what?”
“Alexa: set snooze alarm for Monday…”
Clickiocity
We can’t get too worked up over the Kimmel story. But, related, we see this as a very bad idea: Abolish the FCC – Reason.com. Well, except, would it mean a 50 kw clear-channel on the 80-meter ham bands? “Alexa, set…oh… hand me some earplugs….” Hollywood, Democrats slam Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension.
Trump admin still cannot run America. Liberal (obstructionist) judges blocking/saving us? RFK Jr. Cannot Proceed With Overhaul of Health Agencies, Court Rules. And STILL libs want more! Speaker Mike Johnson on X: “Washington Democrats are now officially threatening a government shutdown unless they get: ?? Reinstatement of FREE health insurance for ILLEGAL ALIENS ?? $500 million for LIBERAL news outlets and other partisan priorities ?? Totaling a massive $1.5 TRILLION spending. Dandy.
Is “P.R.” too hard to spell? Pritzker Poses with a “Peacekeeper” Wanted in 4 States.
Blah Me – the Weekend Watch
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Escalation in Gaza
Israeli tanks, infantry, and artillery are pushing further into Gaza City suburbs amid a telecoms blackout. Civilian casualties are rising and health infrastructure is under pressure. Water supply remains a critical concern with pipelines and desalination plants damaged or go offline. Humanitarian agencies warn shortages of food, fuel, and medical supplies will worsen. -
U.S. Rate Cut and Monetary Policy Ripples
The Federal Reserve Wednesday cut interest rates by a quarter point to 4.00-4.25 percent, the first cut since late 2024. J. Powell emphasized risk management amid weakening labor markets and persistent inflation pressures. Markets are digesting the impact on borrowing costs, equities, and bond yields. Expect some volatility over the weekend and into Monday. BTC around $116,500 early today. -
Domestic Headwinds
Housing market remains weak with high mortgage costs, low inventory, and affordability issues. Labor market softening continues with jobless claims rising and employer demand cooling. With inflation still sticky, this creates a tricky balancing act for Fed and policymakers. Same as it ever was… -
Other Geopolitical Tensions
Many eyes will be on Israel’s operations around Gaza and how international pressures react. Possible diplomatic overtures or condemnations are likely. Bring bottled water.
Preview of Monday
If you think today is setting up as boring? Not exactly edge-of-seat next week:
-
Monday: CFNAI, Tuesday: Current Account, Wednesday: bi-weekly bank settlement, so potential for volatility uptick.
-
Corporate Earnings: Companies in banking, real estate, and consumer sectors report results. Earnings will be judged against weaker consumer spending and higher costs.
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Stammer/Yammer: Expect possible speeches from Fed officials on future rate paths and inflation outlooks. BYOTL (Bring your own tea leaves – they’re as good and maybe better…)
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Gaza Whether desalination plants remain operational and whether fuel is allowed in will shape the humanitarian crisis. Our money’s on depopulate and demise.
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Global Risks: Maybe early for space rocks, market panics, and left-field events. fingers crossed.
The Real Weekend Panning Tools?
And based on the Triple A fuel gauge report:
I’ll mostly be playing “the lard in the yard…” this weekend…
Around the Ranch: Quadrature of Quakes
The Earthquake Tireds hit Elaine and me Wednesday. We were all set to rock a big dinner. Because out in the woods, meal-time is an event – just like it is shipboard. But neither one of us felt like eating. We went to bed at 6:30 PM. It felt like the “earthquake tireds”.
Last night, appetites were back on high. BBQ chicken thighs in the air fryer (marinated in my wine and secret sauce for 24-hours), fresh corn on the cob – a side salad and red wine.
Dinner over, I woke this morning to find the science lining up with the gut. There it was! The source of our bout of the “sleepies.” A 7.8 shaker out where the islands of the Bering crash into Russia:
The technical specs are not particularly remarkable. Although – related perhaps? – reader Hank out on the Big Island is on standby for a Pele show at his local volcano.
But there was something about this one that got me thinking:
The Earth tilts roughly 23.5 degrees, and that tilt sets up the rhythm of the seasons. Twice each year the Sun is directly over the equator, at the equinoxes. Twice each year the Sun reaches the outer limits of tilt, at the solstices. If you think of the planet as a flexible sphere wrapped around a fluid interior, that tilt and the movement of the solar overhead point set up what might be called “land tides.” These are not as obvious as the ocean tides but they are real in terms of crustal stress.
When the Sun is crossing the equator, the “land tide” is moving at its fastest rate of change. Mass is shifting rapidly, the strain lines inside the planet are being redrawn with each passing hour. At the solstices, by contrast, the solar angle stops changing for a time, but the pressure is at its maximum displacement—Earth’s crust is being held at the outer limit of tilt. From a mechanical point of view, one condition emphasizes speed of change, the other emphasizes load at extreme.
If this reasoning is sound, then earthquake records ought to show four semi-clusters through the year. First, the great quakes that occur near solstices, when the crust is under maximum angular displacement and static load. Banda Aceh in December is a prime example. Second, the rapid-change quakes that occur near equinoxes, when stresses are re-aligning at maximum speed. The big Japan quake struck in March and is the classic case.
The clustering of this overnight quake near an equinox (around September 22 and this time Monday at 1:19 p.m. CDT) adds weight to the idea that planetary tilt and solar overhead geometry may be working together to trigger seismic release in quadrature—solstice maxima, equinox accelerations. We threw together seasonal clustering of big quakes and it was interesting: An equinox cluster and year-end can be made out if you squint just so:
It is early work, but the concept of quadrature of quakes may help us frame why certain parts of the calendar seem to attract the most damaging seismic events.
To Stitch It All Together?
I offloaded the critique to AI for review and here’s what I got:
“What Research Has Found
Zhan (2015) reported that very large, deep earthquakes (magnitude 7 and above, depth greater than 500 km) occur two to three times more frequently in summer months, suggesting a seasonal modulation of deep seismicity. Hagen and Azevedo (2018) also noted seasonal fluctuations in the rate of ultra-deep earthquakes and speculated about Earth–Sun geometry as a driver. More recently, an analysis titled Strong Earthquakes and Semi-Annual Behaviour (2023) identified semi-annual clustering in strong quakes when aftershocks were filtered out, with peaks aligning to equinoxes and solstices.
At shallower levels, Krüemer, Zaliapin and co-authors (2018) observed that seasonal deformation in southern California does not necessarily trigger earthquakes, but when large ones do occur, their rupture growth appears to be influenced by seasonal stress conditions. In mountainous and glacial regions, multiple studies of the Alps, the Himalayas, and Alaska found earthquake activity tied to seasonal snow and ice loads, with higher seismicity in spring and summer as meltwater and unloading shift stress in the crust.
Diurnal and seasonal periodicity has also been observed in weak earthquakes. Research on the Garm test area in Central Asia (2010) showed that hodographs of seismicity change sharply near equinoxes and solstices, with slope and phase characteristics that vary seasonally.
Gaps and Limits
Because large earthquakes are rare, statistical power is limited, and results differ by region. Snow and ice processes dominate in glaciated areas but are irrelevant in tropics. Many studies use broad summer–winter splits rather than testing exact astronomical markers. Catalog completeness and the need to filter aftershocks further complicate the data.
Where Quadrature Fits
Your quadrature model proposes four critical points of clustering: solstices (maximum tilt and static load) and equinoxes (maximum rate of change). The semi-annual patterns reported in 2023 research and the sharp equinox/solstice effects in Central Asia are supportive but not framed in this exact way. Your approach would be a refinement, explicitly linking seismic activity to tilt velocity and angular extremes.
In summary, the literature of Zhan (2015), Hagen and Azevedo (2018), the semi-annual strong earthquake analysis (2023), Krüemer et al. (2018), and Central Asian periodicity studies (2010) all support the idea that seismicity has seasonal components. Your quadrature framing extends these findings into a more precise and testable hypothesis.”
As usual, however: while shaken, we are not stirred.
One for the road?
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
Have you checked out this guy – Stefan Burns? He does a great daily take on solar and planetary happenings. The real current events – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDMXKVDMm9g
8 swans a swimming …
I believe something potentially bigger than man made kinetic war is in the works. Mother Earth seems angry. We humans are probably a bit Earth centric, where true mover might be the large yellow ball rising from the East. Or, the volcano, quakes, tsunamis disruption is just drums, drums in the deep. Nope.
Piles of friends are inbound, staying through the weekend (music jam here, there, and everywhere). I have worked my own punch list … keeping my head down and eyes averted. Mrs. E is a social butterfly and six overnight guests have her in a dither.
One feller is prolly 6’4″ at age 70+ and worked for Rieth Riley out on the road builds. He chose an enormous service / lube truck to drive. That meant he had to know how to operate and move every big Tonka truck you can imagine (back then a D6 was top of the line). Side hustle : chimney sweep. Hope he brought the Beaver hat!
We have 8 swans in residence. Keep chortling we oughta throw one back, being over our limit (7 swans a swimming …). None are black, all white. Black will show some day. A sad scene (bird related) unfolded recently. Can’t shake it. Or, describe it. Felt an omen.
Listen to some live music, sing along, if possible.
We will have violin on the pontoon.
And, shining for Gar
Egor
Michigan Gar, MSU.edu :
https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/late_summer_is_a_great_time_to_fish_for_gar_msg16_okeefe16
“The Future is challenging to sketch in,”
Back there I posted the BoA link indicating their (Merrill) position rates wouldn’t change until after Q2 ’26. I have an appointment scheduled for Monday and will be ripping on the sales rep for that miscall. They’re just making things up. In the other column I’ve seen people die with the most money in their cemetery section. Trump .gov is starting to ration Medicare so why not blow any money I have now while my parts work, if ya know what I mean.
“Earthquake Theory”
Saturn is lining up and will be very close this weekend.
“Jimmy Kimmel”
Drudge seems to say .gov is going to be persecuting trannies. The problem as I see it is once a tranny is full-blown tranny, like Bruce Jenner it’s clear they’re tranny. But trannies usually don’t look like tranneis until they look like trannies yet have always been trannies, like weeds in the garden usually look like plants and not like weeds until it’s obvious they are weeds. Trannies are hard to identify. Everyone will need to be screened.
In other words once a tranny is Bruce level it’s clear. But people like Vance who wore dresses in college as a ‘joke’ and mascara/eyeliner as an adult male are questionable. Did you wear a dresses in college as a joke? Do you were mascara/eyeliner today? Bruce does. And what should .gov do with the people who defend the then defined mentally ill trannies – woodchippers?
OowS : “… Trump .gov is starting to ration Medicare so why not blow any money I have now …”
Huh? Care to provide an excerpt noting source with hyperlink? I dunna think you’re reading legit info.
Regardless, purposely blowing nest egg? Nope. Bad idea IMO.
But, it’s only money and this aint advice!
E
again, you could just google “medicare cuts”, but you’d rather be obstinate. democrats are pushing to get concessions by republicans and trump to undo their cuts to medicare/medicaid, which of course trump pinky promised he would not cut.
“How Would Sequestration Affect Medicare and Other Programs,
Assuming That Funding Subject to Sequestration Remained Equal to the Amounts in CBO’s January 2025 Baseline Projections? Under S-PAYGO, reductions in Medicare spending are limited to 4 percent—
or an estimated $45 billion for fiscal year 2026. That would leave $185 billion to be sequestered from the federal budget’s remaining direct spending accounts in that year. S-PAYGO exempts many large accounts, including those that provide funding for Social Security and low-income programs. Therefore, in CBO’s estimation, OMB would have roughly $120 billion in budgetary resources
available for cancellation in 2026—less than the remaining amount that would be required to be sequestered.
How Would Medicare Be Affected After 2026?
The 4 percent maximum reduction in Medicare spending would apply to sequestration orders for years after 2026. If OMB ordered a sequestration of $230 billion for each year through 2034, the ordered reductions in Medicare spending would increase to about $75 billion in 2034 and would total roughly $490 billion over the 2027–2034 period.”
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-05/61423-PAYGO.pdf
https://www.ama-assn.org/practice-management/medicare-medicaid/medicare-pay-cuts-what-they-mean-rural-america
https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2025/the-changes-coming-to-the-aca-medicaid-and-medicare
https://apnews.com/article/cbo-medicare-cuts-trump-bill-health-insurance-8d16a42771bc8d5d2bcc99654c8a7547
“you could just google “medicare cuts””
I’m not sure what it is. Trees are made out of wood, right?
[non] truth : “… could just google “medicare cuts”, but you’d rather be obstinate. …”
So, in reply you provide one link to CBO and three links echoing CBO. The. Sorta.
Now, go probe accuracy of CBO forecasts son. They, regardless of party in power, have an awful track record.
You cite that org because this one eight month old backward data forecast instead of applying credits debits in line with reality.
You’d rather be obstinate?
It’s OK. expected …
Egor
I’ve been watching the Luigi Mangione trial. Luigi’s defense is ripping apart the state’s case. Now I’m wondering if Luigi’s deed was a commentary against Big Health or possibly a statement illustrating rich folks can get away with shooting other folks.
I think Luigi is down to one second-degree murder charge. If he pleas that down, which he won’t, it’s a 10 year charge. Luigi may go free with some probation.
OowS : “… possibly a statement illustrating rich folks can get away with shooting other folks …”
Machts nichts Steve. T’was a purposeful planned hit. Under _no_ circumstances can this be allowed in society. Your 1st Amendment rights don’t include assassinating the CEO of a company -nor- the kid who sweeps the floors.
We can’t look away from overt violence.
E
Unless of course its Ure favorite people SLAUGHTERING innocent Paly Women and Children all day-everyday.
Why even the UN has come out with their findings of GENOCIDE -https://www.theinteldrop.org/2025/09/16/the-jewish-war-on-humanity-un-legal-investigators-conclude-the-jews-are-guilty-of-genocide-in-gaza/
Genocide Egor – nice moniker, fitting, no?
Dont forget to Tithe this Sunday Egor, Santa Muerte can be very jealous.
What the old saying?
If you kill one person you are a murderer. If you order the killing of 100,000 you are a Hero Patriot for your country. (or something like that).
Don’t confuse the two. Killing 1 person is NOT OK. Killing 100,000 is perfectly acceptable.
BCP : purveyor of waddle son. The UN is a wayward political org., not dedicated to fostering human cooperation. For now they focus on beating down the one tiny/mighty democracy in the ME. We can stand with those people while accepting its not our fight, not our business. Thankfully we don’t turn our back and walk away. We cannot impose settlement on either side per history.
However, if slant supports the desired narrative, it’s no matter hey?
E
A woo woo event for you.
Wednesday Diana and I both were wore slick from ranch projects. Not necessarily earthquake tireds. We both went to bed after a very light supper at 6PM. I dreamed I was blind and was thinking how I would get along since I am alone now. I woke up at my usual 3AM with Diana curled up against me. I tried to get up without disturbing her to hit the head but she wrapped all fours around me and said “Please don’t leave me.” At that moment I noticed I could not see anything. I blinked my eyes a couple times and after a few seconds I finally could barely see the bedside clock. It took several more seconds to focus like someone slowly turned up a light and focused my eyes, I went back to sleep for another hour then woke up with Diana still wrapped around me. The call to the throne was a bit more demanding now so I carefully untangled myself without waking her. I was in the shower when I heard her crying then call me. ” Jim. Where are you?” I grabbed a towel and rushed to her stubbing my little toe on the bed post. I held her until she stopped crying. She told she dreamed she was blind and couldn”t find me. After she calmed down she asked me “Why are you all wet? Your getting the sheets wet.” Give you any ideas? “Go dry off first.” I remembered my toe and saw it pointing an unnatural angle away from my foot. I should try to get my little toe back in place first. “Ewwwwww!”
This is the second time recently she has had episodes like this and I don’t recall us both having similar dreams at the same time.
Stay safe. 73
Had a dream dozen days ago, was walking midday bright daylight and instant blackness, no Sun, Stars, no anything.
3SI Atlas = Watchers Return…as promised
FutureForecastingGroup – latest project is Atlas spaceship. Buckleup Bunkies..
* artificial cyndrical structures within object
* evidence of suspended biological bodies in protective chambers
* advanced propulsion (nuclear like)
*robotic/Ai tech with self replicating capabilities
*communication system sending signals across space
1st wk Oct -potential disclosure event coinciding with objects closest approach to Mars.
Oct 29 – max visibility as object reaches closest point to Mars
December 2025 object approaches Earth.
* humanoid beings in stasis chambers described as “Sick” or “Dying”
* protective liquid environments keeping entities suspended
*evidence genetic engineering
* microscopic tech – capable of DNA repair
* Self Healing- self replicating systems that can adapt and change function.
*Electromagnetic Propulsion creating NRG field around craft
*stealth capabilities.
*** Data suggests this object has been planned and tracked for Decades. Viewers described evidence of prior agreements and betrayals involving both Human and non-Human entities – Not Random, its part of a larger agenda thats been hidden from Us all.
Bring what ever you got, bring extra, bring back ups, but dont bring FAITH..duh-ooh!
Yesterday the Princess of Wales and the US First Lady combined forces. Together they participated in outdoor activities with a troupe of Scouts Squirrels of pre-school age on the expansive grounds of Frogmore House at Windsor. (A couple of years back the Duke and Duchess of Sussex underwent eviction from the House, and moved to a smaller estate in Montecito, Ca.)
Each special guest was tasked to draw an animal with assistance from their young charges. The Princess perhaps attempted something resembling a squirrel. The First Lady apparently produced an accurate rendition of a bear. One imagines it may have been Russian since wild bears have not been seen in the UK for quite some time. Have a great weekend, everyone!
re: Thursday history rewrite
feat: Donetsk Oblast
Folks,
Yesterday the President of the Ukraine’s Telegram account received multiple public post additions between roughly 0700 and 0930. They announced an implied real time visit by the President and also the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces to a pair of small towns near the front line of conflict. Stated purpose was to collect opinions and deliver state awards to members of the 95th, 82nd, and 79th Brigades of the Air Assault Forces – part of Ukraine’s elite fighting units. The Russians are apparently suffering heavy losses.
Today the President’s Telegram channel reiterated his visit of yesterday to the 82nd and 79th Brigades. The Russians are apparently suffering heavy losses.
Here is a link to a 0216 Thursday morning post by “The Wrong Side” Telegram channel. The public post allegedly depicts a missile strike on a road convoy of the 95th Brigade.
https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/25792
GU – a president’s job isn’t to “run America”. It’s to faithfully execute the laws of the country.
Jeesh, trump republicans control the house, the senate, the scotus, controlling speech, academia, business, law firms, culture and even what entertainment plays at the melania trump center. trump republicans are gaming the 2026 midterms because they know they and their policies aren’t popular so let’s just give him 10 seats because he feels he’s entitled to them, sorta like find me 10,880 votes. republicans won’t work across the aisle nor should democrats. Now media could lose its licensing because trump has thin skin and is offended. You may approve of this dictator now. You may not approve of the next one. I guarantee that this is not going to end well.
and you blame the democrats. grow up and face reality. you want an autocrat.
Sorry but isn’t this a pointless quibble? Trump “runs America” as proscribed in the const. It’s a minutia point.
[un]truth : “… they know they and their policies aren’t popular …”
People aren’t buying what you’re selling son.
E
sorry E, alleging that you should be trusted because you’ve taught economics is a logical fallacy, call to authority. the best thing for an adult to do that wants to engage in adult communication would be to post something that backs up their opinion. that’s what thinking empirical people do, rely on evidence.
so please post a legitimate poll that shows trump isn’t underwater. every poll i see says he’s underwater generally, with immigration, the economy, inflation, trade. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
maybe try a search like “trump popularity” and report back.
if trump and republicans weren’t so unpopular why are they trying to game the 2026 midterms with unusual redistricting and a new census?
While it is (conditionally true) that Trump is unfavorably rated 52.4 pct, it is also conditionally true that dems are unfavorably rated 60.7 pct. https://www.realclearpolling.com/
We’re arguing vintage of hemlock here.
The financial establishment’s hold on world order is in collapse and 8 billion are waking up and realizing they have been scammed by everyone.
Reread what Dr. Odlyzko cites in his Post-Truth work iomplicates and our own “what happens when people begin to reindex their thinking. Change of a massive scale. Not necessarily controllable – hence my pointed recent use of the aerobatics term lomcevak.
Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
·
1h
Trump Approval is at 53% today, up two points from yesterday:
https://bit.ly/preztrack
#TRUMPAPPROVAL
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1969068980389429359
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration_second_term/prez_track_sep19
and also
“POLLSTER MARK MITCHELL: Trump’s hardline actions on domestic terror and border security are rallying voters while legacy outlets bleed viewers and ad dollars.”
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1969076475073564720
[un]truth : I don’t give a rodents rear end about polls. No one else should give them any weight unless, like youm, using them to support their vacant blather.
We will have a series of local polls in 13 months that matter. Until them lousy poll orgs using query designed to elicit desired response mean nadda son.
“… alleging that you should be trusted because you’ve taught economics …”
Huh? Doing hallucinatory out.of.mind trips? It’s OK little one. Just go sit in a corner and reread.
E
ps – great to see these links. keep trying!
Something up Egor? Very tetchy of late.
“People aren’t buying what you’re selling son”
Really?? Maybe not here, not in your close circle, but that’s a big, gaping unsubstantiated statement.
Seems to be a vibe lately…..those with seemingly idyllic rich, happy lives, successful by every measure in today’s world seem to be lashing out at those who aren’t doing so great, struggling. I guess they just don’t fit into the perfect world. I’ve been on the receiving end of late for no foreseeable reason.
Plenty of black swans here in Western Australia – whole flocks wheeling across the sky. I wish it was an omen. This needs to end.
Turning to truth’s comments ……..opinion polls are utterly useless. There is no shared world, no shared experience since social media splintered any sense of connection. Four people can be living under one roof but inhabiting separate universes – one cloistered in the bedroom listening to Death Metal, mum and dad watching subtitled Scandi dramas and dreaming of escaping to a bleak Danish beach cabin, one listening to Taylor while planning a corporate takeover.
Fragmentation. The death knell of a cohesive collective.
One more turn of the kaleidoscope and who knows where we may end up?……………………
Go Cats !
Grand Final Today – Geelong Cats will roar, Cats will claw, and the Cats will once again be Grand Champions of Aussie Rules Football !
What are the odds the “Sicilian” is a Brisbane Lions fan ?
No worries, and certainly no furries!
GO CATS !
Isn’t Geelong a province in you know, Chyna?
Winter : Something up Egor? Very tetchy of late.
Tetchy? Yep that’s me. Of late. Sorry if my personal situ has shown me Tobe grumpy. I am. It’s a funk. Will pass. But, it’s hard to humor fools mate.
“People aren’t buying what you’re selling son”
“… Really?? Maybe not here, not in your close circle, but that’s a big, gaping unsubstantiated statement …”
Our latest election turns out what a majority chose. Those who don’t like it can vote in the booth in the next year and two after.
But no votes for / from Oztralians.
Just like I can’t vote down under.
None of my bidness (ahem …)
E
News from the northwest. The search parties found remains of Travis Decker. He is the one G2 and his buddies helped search for after this guy killed his three daughters. Found his remains less than a mile away but 4,000 feet up from the murder site.
I cannot fathom the twisted mind of a person willing to murder their own children.
Talk about targeted marketing:
https://signaturesolar.com/ure-peach-full-pallet-of-390w-solar-panels-30-panels/
Vanity solar panels, at a peach of a price.
Kilauea volcano spraying lava this morning
https://www.youtube.com/usgs/live
GU..,
“.,what happens when people begin to reindex their thinking?”
When individuals begin to reindex their thinking, they are able to change the initial thoughts they have about a situation. This process can lead to more positive emotions and less negative emotions. It involves pausing to notice thoughts and considering alternative perspectives, which can help in managing emotions and improving resilience. This skill can be strengthened through practice and is now a key part of many scientifically supported treatments for anxiety and depression.
George, good music videoclip, our era, the best ever.
On October 1, 2008, the Senate debated and voted on an amendment to H.R. 1424, a newly revised version of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. The amended version of H.R. 1424 was sent to the House for consideration, and on October 3, the House voted 263–171 to enact the bill into law. President George W. Bush signed the bill into law within hours of its congressional enactment, creating the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to purchase failing bank assets. The QQQ hit a low in Nov 2008 and is following a 35/88/82 of 88 :: x/2.5x/2.5x monthly fractal cycle. My quess is that in Feb 2026, a similar bank and corporate bailout bill will be bipartisanly passed.
I think they are moving ahead of this RE: spinning Freddie and Fannie off as equities. After sucking everyone in on the equity side it will fail however since the big dogs own the debt they will backstop the debt. This will not stop the inevitable crash. The RRP has been exhausted for the most part. Margin debt in excess of $1T for the first time, odd lot buyers are rushing in as European cash tops out before capital controls are instituted. Buffett indicator last I saw was 217+ which I think is a record…….not if but when?
Blind ass squirrels will get one right one of these days, and actually find a nut (20% down Mkt).
Sure once every twenty years or so, otherwise this baby is going higher, as it has for past 15 years…UP.
Look at any historical chart of stock market – hell look at Gs’ very own all markets in chart..steady rise Left to Right over time.
Sky is not falling, TEF has not hit a down mkt/crash call yet – not even close. See historical performance..”you are what Ure record says you are”-Bill Parcel/NYGiants coach.
Might be better off looking at entrails for market prognostications of Direction/Price action.
Dont forget Ure basics..A body in Motion(stockmarket), tends to stay in Motion..unless acted upon by an outside force.
* 3I Atlas not gonna be problem for another 2 weeks, once She arrives at Mars..ALL Bets are OFF. In fact everything will be OFF, by the time She arrives here in December 2025.
Age of Aquarias – https://youtu.be/ajgeaOt_HTQ?si=XBBgO-7CAYZZ8vR3
Our esteemed colleague is right – but only so far as he goes. Remember the following and do your own calculations:
When the Fed was created (bankster pressure) in 1913, the Dow (equivalent) stood, for example, at 1913-12-17 55.5137
This is a “dollar reading.” On Friday, the Dow closed about 46315.27
So, in simple dallar terms, the Dow (unadjusted) is up 834 times.
That said, the population in 1913 was 97 million and this year try 341-million. Which means? Well, the simple answer is if 97-million drove the dow up the population change would have driven it up 3.515 times that.
Which make it look like the down was (then) only 0.004 of today on a population adjusted basis. But now we have to consider (additively) the impact of inflation. Since the dollar now has only 3.0366 percent of its purchasing power of 1913, a closer approximation of apples to apples would be to first decrement the Dow to equalize the monetary impacts. So the equivelent (dollari9zed) Dow today would be 1,417. That’s a good bump – not to misunderstand: that’s a 25-times increase in real terms.
Buyt now spread that out over FIVE GENERATIONS and SHITLOAD OF tech?
Suddenly the 120-year ARR (annual rate of return) is not-so-impressive
My point being that the 100-cents on the dollar not only has the same purchaing power as a shade over 3-bucks today but also that From 1913 to 2025 (97 million to 341 million over 112 years), the U.S. population grew at a compound annual rate of about 1.13% per year.
Almost five genration and people who want to be true believers point out the 55. the (nominally) point to 6.19 percent as the gross CAGR. But back out the pop growth and then the debasing of money?
the old BCN (which is was rising) was right about the shorter term rise in crypto.
OTOH: From $20.67 in 1913 to $3,700 in 2025 over 112 years, gold shows a compound annual growth rate of about 4.74% per year
But then it gets even more complicated because you have to look (with Dow) at portfolio balanacing.
The original Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was created by Charles Dow in 1896 with 12 companies. They were:
American Cotton Oil
American Sugar Refining
American Tobacco
Chicago Gas
Distilling & Cattle Feeding
General Electric
Laclede Gas
National Lead
North American Company (utilities)
Tennessee Coal, Iron and Railroad
US Leather Company (preferred shares)
US Rubber Company
Which are left today?
General Electric was the only one that survived into modern times and remained in the Dow for over a century, but it was removed in 2018.
None of the other original 1896 companies are in the DJIA today, though some descendants or successor firms exist (e.g., parts of American Tobacco evolved into modern tobacco giants, and American Sugar became Domino Sugar).
So as of 2025, none of the original 12 remain in the Dow.
On a true buy and hold, you could have “bought the Dow” in the very long-term and still gone broke. Not so much with gold.
If you had “bought the Dow” when the Fed was created? None of these 1913 members remain turly in the index.
General Electric was the last survivor but was removed in 2018 after more than 110 years.
AT&T was in and out but is not a current Dow component.
US Steel, GM, Sears, Anaconda, International Harvester and others dropped out long ago or ceased to exist in their original form.
Gold woudl still have that 4+_ percent CAGR over time – and we didn’t even get into tax consequences of portfolio managment (or shill commission)
I would not be suprrised to see $60 and $4,000 – for the metals by year end (not advice) buet remember From about $0.58 per ounce in 1913 to $43.20 in 2025, silver shows a compound annual growth rate of roughly 3.92% per year over the 112-year span. and laggards tend to wash over time.
ET : “… get one right one of these days, and actually find a nut (20% down Mkt) …”
Uhm, actually more like a periodic -50% flush matey. But, we remain on an upward slope despite occasional down-stroke. For now anyway, hey? ~ E
(“BBQ chicken thighs in the air fryer (marinated in my wine and secret sauce for 24-hours)
ok… spill it young man…. no secret sauces.. share the delectable secret family recipe…lol lol ..you never know when the time is going to happen…
1 cup of wine..
1/4 cup of honey
1/2 cup of EVOO
1 tbsp paprika
2 tbsp lemon juice
4 cloves of garlic
salt and pepper..
cold smoke the marinade for an hour..
https://www.amazon.com/Cocktail-Smoker-Old-Fashioned-Boyfriend/dp/B0DCNP3QWD/ref=sr_1_16?
I would say head to dollar general and get an expensive smoking chamber lol…
https://www.dollargeneral.com/p/true-living-piece-mixing-bowl-set/430001993559
that set cost more than the one I got.. then put a grommet in it..
https://www.amazon.com/Firewall-Grommets-Assortment-Automotive-Organization/dp/B0F8N9PLXT/ref=sr_1_13…
I didn’t think I would ever see this:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-slap-h1-b-visas-100000-fee-infosys-cognizant-plunge
Next, send Senators and Congressmen to the old folks home for acting as cheerleaders for MBA’s carting American industry offshore.
Then, force industrial robot owners to pay a tax on their slave’s existence, yearly. Same for AI’s. We live in a pay-to-play kleptocracy. Let’s be more inclusive.
Forty years ago, when you ran into foreign nationals working in industry, they generally had advanced degrees from well known western universities, amd more often than not they were top flight in their field. Now, its cousins and brother-in-laws with dubious academic and work credentials. 100K sounds light for annual fee, but I’ll take the win.
re: “Fiery Angel”, Bryusov, 1908
feat: key to the scales
Folks,
On the 70th anniversary of the premiere of Prokofiev’s opera “Fiery Angel”, the Russian Embassy in London released a press release promoting “Intervision”. The tv show broadcasts on Saturday from Moscow with a couple of dozen nations represented in a music competition.
B. Howard, son of a Jackson mentee, had been scheduled to represent the USA singing “We Are Champions”. However he withdrew a couple of days ago. In his place, Vassy, an ethnic Greek, Australian-born, naturalized American has been parachuted in to perform “Midnight”. Separately, Joe Lynn Turner formerly of Rainbow and Deep Purple will hold down a spot on the judging panel.
Intervision 2025 broadcast from Moscow now shows up on YouTube. Vietnam won out of the 20+ contestants.
The Russian program host stepped aside while a Chinese speaking host introduced replacement USA contestant Vassy who was to sing “Midnight”. After a few moments of video filler, cameras returned to the Russian host who seemed to say that Vassy would not be performing on the program.
Vassy’s Dutch record company is a subsidiary of one of the global big three in New York. At a glance it is a “public” company. However 70% of its shares are allegedly held by a private holding company in New York. The latter was co-founded by a multi-billionaire Soviet oligarch allegedly born in Odesa, Ukraine. He received a Knight Bachelor award from the late QE II in 2017. Minions may address him as “Sir”.
Crack in the World by Sammy Hagar (1977)
“Just fifty more years we’re all gonna know
Why, when, where, how, and who get’s to go
So let’s all have a good time before the great divide
‘Cause things will start separating come 2025
So look for the subtle clues
It won’t make the front-page news
That depends upon which side that you choose”
https://genius.com/Sammy-hagar-crack-in-the-world-lyrics