If this adds a useful perspective

Markets on Coast, UI Filings & Drought, Sideband Dream II

We are – right now – in what I call “IHOP Markets.”  Because prices keep waffling.

Our best guess (and that’s all market lookaheads are., in all reality), it looks to us like there is clear sailing ahead until Labor Day.  Sure, there is a Fed FOMC in a couple of weeks,. But sure as the market fell on its ass Wednesday, it’s set to pick itself up and make rational prediction impossible.

Well, at least nearly impossible.  You see, under the surface there are many gears moving and today we’ll focus on a few.

Consumer Spending Troubles?

Consumer Debt report from the Fed Yesterday:  shocker was that May credit card (and revolving) debt use was down 4.7 percent.  That meant total credit laid a goose egg for the month. Wow!

Meanwhile, monetary inflation (and specifically M2 seasonally adjusted) is going up faster than 5 percent per year.  With it, the National Debt continues to compound, and we are quickly approaching the run-away compounding point.

The BEA’s Q1 headline was 2.1% annualized real GDP growth, which sounds decent until it is set beside money growth, debt growth, and household fuel costs. Meanwhile, good luck staying afloat.  The reason?  Well, let’s talk about gasoline prices. Money growth running ahead of real GDP is not an accounting identity, but it sure hints at screaming debt pressure ahead.

Hold your wallet up: AAA figured a year ago gas prices were around $3.163 per gallon and this week it’s $3.846.  I’m still working on my Junior Econometrician Merit Badge but that sure seems like 21-some percent higher.  (We give tanks…)

My point?  By fall we may see wheat prices soar not only because of drought (we’ll get there in a second) but also because of input costs and planning ahead for next year. We’re already hearing financial disaster rumors out of south-east Washington because present wheat prices won’t stitch ends together.

Is America Ready?

In our ($40/year) subscriber newsletter (Peoplenomics) we made the case Wednesday that traditional economics (and cycles work) misses the sociology behind the scenes, almost entirely.  In a  sizable working paper (70 pgs.) I explain what the “softs” are telling us about history.

One short takeaway is that “hard times” going into global conflict may “season the winning side” because economic Depressions cause people to forego convenience and friction reduction.  In short, people learn about “making do” and innovation on the fly.

Arguably we haven’t done that in recent economic history. In fact, just the opposite seems to be in play in the macro cycles (including Kondratieff, et al). Instead of a “bit of suffering” to back in off the hyperinflation ledge, we have accentuated softer through runaway socialist agendas.  We have become a “real piece of work.” That doesn’t…

The Truth of the Tape?

Let’s compare whether the AI Bubble (as measured in the multiple markets Peoplenomics Aggregate Index) is continuing to Replay 1929.

I sketched in a couple of ovals because there seems to be a similarity in modest hesitation at this part of the waveform.

This hints that we have two main directions to decide between.  Higher infers inflation – and drivers there could involve energy shortages (Iran’s a great scapegoat) and drought – which would fit Democrats’ deification of St. Gore as the one true climate savior.  That is the “high case.”

The low case begins with attacks on banking and personal finance infra – and that shakes confidence apart at just the moment we can’t afford it. Paper assets – and even crypto – loses its “edge” as people suffer power outages and systemic financial instability.  This results in mass layoffs in the Service Sector which now comprises  76 to 77% of U.S. GDP.

Our (so-called) leaders have seen to it that actual manufacturing of goods has fallen to 10-11 percent.  All part of the corporate office socialism that swindled America out of self-reliance while wrapping itself in good socialist narratives (“we need to help the third world”).  But the reality of cleaning out America was (and remains) least-cost labor because the rich pricks never lose control.

Bottom Line?

We are “in the window” where something has to give (besides Trump changing planes).  In our work (from which the chart above fell out) here’s how the Aggregate is doing compared to 1929.

This suggests that we are in a POSSIBLE alignment where the mood and odds are similar (but actually holding up a bit better) compared to 1929 and the lead-in to the Crash.

Alright – enough long wave economic perspective. But before we get all attention-deficit and wander toward more useful inputs two more nuggets:  The Weekly Unemployment Filings and this morning’s Drought Monitor read.

47.2 pecent of L48 is in drought (d1-d4) to some degree.  In our solar-powered greenhouse. ambient intake air to the swamp coolers has dried a bit and our evap cooling is now keeping daily peak temps a few degrees under local “official highs.”  93F with 48% RH and even  with the solar gain we only had one heat spike to 92.7F.  Score a small gain for solid engineering.

Turn On the News Compressor!

For most journos, this will be National Rewrite Day as post G7, even the fools need time to get home before screwing up an otherwise inhabitable planet.  Who needs econometrics when we have recursive AI?

“What changed overnight is the US-Iran military exchange entered a second consecutive day of direct strikes and formal political rupture. CENTCOM reported completing an additional round of strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline. President Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” warned of further US strikes, and stated the US would hold Iran accountable for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with strikes or actions targeting sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar; air raid alerts were issued in affected areas. Oil prices surged sharply—Brent rose over 5% to multi-week highs near $78/barrel and WTI near $73.50—as markets priced renewed Hormuz shipping risks and the Treasury’s prior revocation of Iran oil-sales licenses. Iran also held funeral rites for its slain Supreme Leader. This marks a clear step beyond the July 7 strikes described in the prior news compressor run, shifting from fragile ceasefire to active, multi-day exchange with expanded Iranian retaliation and explicit US political termination of talks.”

The Ultimate Water War Arrives

Mainstream/Lamestream Media really misses the intel-level.  Let’s read you in to fix that:

Our Nightmare on Sand Street has everyone in the Middle East lighting up and going after each other’s desalination plants.  At some level, “gentlemanly warfare” ends and the killing/diaspora will begin.

“Israel obtains about 80% to 85% of its domestic municipal and industrial water supply from seawater desalination. Five major coastal desalination facilities produce roughly 600 million cubic meters of water annually.

Iran relies almost exclusively on traditional groundwater, rivers, and dams for its water supply. While Iran has some localized desalination along its southern Gulf coast, desalinated water constitutes a negligible fraction of its total national water portfolio.”

Now, what we see is Iran patiently ramping up the Water War in their overnight attacks. Here’s their water source dope the mainstream isn’t reporting:

  • Qatar: 100% of residential and drinking water is supplied by desal plants.
  • Bahrain: Over 90% of drinking and domestic water comes from desalination, with groundwater largely reserved for emergencies.
  • Kuwait: Approximately 90% of residential water needs are fulfilled by desalinated water.

Between Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, roughly 10 million people sit inside this desalination dependency zone. Add Israel’s 9.6 million, and the water-risk population becomes enormous. Move over historical genocide records if it goes that way.   The odds are NOT zero based on the overnights.

Personal Intel Action Planner

  • Fuel-sensitive operators: recheck diesel, freight, backup-generator fuel, and surcharge assumptions. Oil is off the spike, but insurance and tanker routing are the real tell now.
  • Import/export operators: avoid assuming Gulf routing is “business as usual.” Ask forwarders for written war-risk, routing, and delay assumptions.
  • Small businesses: review 7–14 day inventory exposure to fuel, plastics, chemicals, fertilizer-linked inputs, and food items with long shipping tails.
  • Travel/security: anyone with staff, vendors, ships, or aviation connections in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, or eastern Saudi should refresh contact trees and shelter-in-place instructions. Why you’d want to vacation there is beyond us, but to each their own.
  • IT shops: patch exposed ColdFusion and Langflow instances first, then check UniFi OS and Ruckus router exposure. The AI/dev-tool edge is now a real target zone.
  • Microsoft 365 admins: review passkey-enrollment and help-desk identity reset procedures; vishing against identity workflows is rising.
  • Food safety: CDC has a current E. coli warning tied to recalled frozen blueberries. Check freezer inventory before use. Oh goody! Let’s all play “Healthy or Sick Roulette!”

Around the Ranch: Sideband Dream, II

I wrote up a dream I had the morning of June 30- which is 10 days back.  And in it, I dreamed that I’d soon come to have in my collection a rather rare ham radio called a Drake TR-5.  Well, sure enough this week, the exact radio came up on eBay. But the price was far above the $550 that my dream said I should not bid above.

I’m not sure how this precognitive dreams stuff works, but our recent science work on how we’re all “test-fitting apes” seems like it may shed some light on things. (TFA is my next book.)

Still, when I have precognitive dreams, they come a day to a week ahead of events, but usually much closer in than the 10-day lead time on rare ham gear.  Didn’t know Universe was so hobby accommodating, did you?

The seller has an offer from me for the dream max bid ($550) but whether he takes it or not, I have no idea how the future webs out from his decision or what the point of this is.

Except maybe I can do better than seeing ahead 18 hours (Deepwater Horizon precog dream) or a couple of hours (Arizona fatal crash avoided dream). There is a useful thing in here: if you live long enough… a lot of the missing pieces in life will slide into place.

Just being open to whatever comes still seems to make the most sense.

Frontier – Edge Woo-Woo

Quick – everyone send this to my friend G.A. Stewart who’s the world expert on Nostradamus.  Because astrology may have a can opener to it.

Check out THE WORLD WE HAVE KNOWN ENDS THIS JULY. A NEW ONE BEGINS. THE BARBAULT BASKET and it will all make sense.

Well, I mean as much as anything does on these sleigh rides around the Sun.

Like I told the woman at the pharmacy drive-through Wednesday, “The only thing that beats being 77 was being 76…”

Write when we wake up – I’m off to shoot more game film for the life review.  (Grounded or the real NDE adjacent one...)

George@Ure.net

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27 thoughts on “Markets on Coast, UI Filings & Drought, Sideband Dream II”

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  1. G-Pops,

    The chance of youse people “waking up” is about Slim to None. Sadly Slim just took the last Train out of Dodge City.

    Been beating a drum bout this “rare alignment” for ages.

    ? Have you puny Humans any idea why I have been beating that particular drum ??

    Hmmmm, wanna take wild guess on tbs Birthday ?

    YERP! July 20th, the astro peeps say I was born on a cusp tween Cancer and Leo..whatever.

    * There is a lot more “going on” around that date than just a basket case birthday. Now if I can just get the dam Pennsyltucky Lottery to cooperate, I wont have to keep Winning $$$$$$ betting on The Viking to Win it ALL.

    Time to Cowboy Up like a Norwegian-ttps://youtube.com/shorts/i4z5Ugt-S1Y?

    “Cause I wanna be a …Cowboy” -https://youtu.be/_tpV-0bO-F8?

    Reply
      • the empire forbids any further disclosure of KNOWLEDGE from that site. we are not allowed to know anything about Our past.

        only disclose what they want, as coming alien disclosure event is Fugazi .

        From Jack Heart;
        “the Dukes of Westminster and are related by blood to the Percy’s who changed their name to Pierce, as in Barbara Pierce Bush, upon migrating to America, after being linked to a Plot to blow up English Parliament, founded National Geographic. National Geographic serves Chaigidiel (those who obstruct) and Satharial (the concealment of God) by descending on every discovery that threatens to expose the dogma of evolution and anthropology with a crack team of academic assassins and debunkers.

        Any physical evidence is whisked off to be secreted in the possession of the Smithsonian which in turn is controlled by the Grosvenor’s cousins the Smithsons. – Lucifer (my oldest essay circa 2010)

        Life of Illusion/J.Walsh -https://youtu.be/EzEzIBHuUmU?

        Reply
  2. George,

    Around early August of 2011, I had a very vivid dream about a driving around a large city center on the east coast that had been destroyed. The girders of the skyscrapers were smoldering after a bomb (?) was detonated. Many people were killed, and I remember that I was horrified by this and the fact that I was not able to help anyone. My late husband and a few close friends soon noticed that I was visibly upset about something, and later we had the 911 event.

    Reply
    • Yeah – and thank you! What people find easy to dismiss becomes impossible to ignore after you have gone a few precognitive rounds – so totally with you on this… Once it happens, you can never let go – like grabbing a high voltage (DC) wire…

      Reply
    • That dream is similar to the ones I’ve been having …not sure if its pre cognition or simply due to the news being given each day..scary

      Reply
  3. George,

    Thanks for the kind words. I read the link. Very interesting stuff. The critics have a field day making fun of astrology, but Hank got it perfectly right a couple of weeks ago. The planets swim in a plasma that interacts with the magnetic fields of all the planets. Their movements effect everything. How could they not???

    Decoding the meaning of conjunctions, oppositions, sextiles, squares, and trines has always been the key. The meaning of it all is certainly empirical given the thousands of years of history.

    I know my way around astrology; I use to do it by hand with an ephemeris and protractor before I got a computer. The chosen House System is so important. I am going to look into this guy’s work when I get the time, so thanks for the link.

    I’m in the middle of buying a new house. Found a community out in the Florida woods that has a farm on the front end of it and that has wilderness preserves all around and in the middle of it.

    I bought the model. They threw in the whole works, so it’s an offer I couldn’t refuse. It’s a modern home, cement block with double-pane windows and Cat 6 hookups in every room. Easy to localize and turn into my own private smart-home when the grid goes down; my backyard is the woods, and there are plenty of lakes.

    The community has the structure and skeleton of those self-sufficient communities that Clif was describing years ago. One of my techs discovered it and also bought a place. There will be plenty of like-minded people when it all goes south.

    This weekend the Orange-Idiot made my decision simple. I wrote the book years ago; Iran gets worse from here on out. It’s time to get out of Dodge; I’m going for a quick closing hopefully in a couple of weeks and hopefully before the economy crashes.

    Many thanks!

    Reply
    • Glad to see you are taking action to ‘getting out of Dodge’, instead of fatalistically waiting at ground zero. Best wishes. You will have lots to keep you occupied building your own survival platform.

      Reply
      • You know..when things seem to go haywire..I often found that IF Is the most dangerous thought….I’ve learned over the years that when things start going haywire, you never say “how much worse could it get,” because fate always seems ready to answer with, “Oh, you thought that was bad? Try this.”

        It’s the same unwritten rule in hospitals — you never say the Q?word, the G?word, or “I’ve seen it all,” because that’s exactly when the unexpected walks through the door.

        I stopped watching the news for that reason. I don’t want to be the one muttering “how much further can we go,” because the truth is, there are two kinds of disaster…. the flash zone where everything ends instantly, and the slow?death zone where systems decay piece by piece…

        Scientists have already studied it for congress that refuses to read or act on it — the slow collapse kills far more people than the fast one. When modern conveniences fail, when the grid goes down, when water and food systems falter, society doesn’t snap… it withers. And instead of strengthening the grid, we keep it fragile for profit and control.

        We could be building solar towers at every substation, handing out grid?tie systems to every home, or installing air?wells in arid regions. We could be reinforcing the infrastructure that actually keeps people alive……

        But instead, we pour resources into destruction, conflict, and control — the very things the Stoics, the prophets, and every educated voice throughout history warned us against.

        Sadly I live in the region where there’s a hundred miles between targeted areas..my thought was..there are things about this area that make it desirable to maintain it..

        Reply
    • Stu, nice to hear that you are getting set up like that.

      I’m still in the process of moving to, and getting set up on, a location on southern Mindanao. I don’t know if we will be able to finish getting set up on the 3 hectare plot of land my (Filipina) wife and I bought, but any way I look at it, it seems better than freezing (alone) on a -20 Winter in North Central Washington.

      Near as I can figure, we are about 200 feet above sea level with a nice view and the Gulf of Davao visible in the distance.

      If things work out, I hope to list my place in Okanogan County next Spring and finish this one next Summer.

      Reply
    • Hey G. A.,

      How high above Sea Levels is Ure new Mansion ?

      Thats it ?

      Dude, maybe a lil skiff, with Jet-Drive outboard, trailered around out back, out of site under tarp..

      or, better yet how about a SDV, in Yellow ?

      Yellow Submarine -https://youtu.be/m2uTFF_3MaA?

      Reply
  4. is the upcoming digital token system a taboo subject? so much happening this month and for the rest of the year. since our spr is at the bottom and we can’t sell what we don’t have, dubai, et al. can’t make their loan payments to london, and justin trudeau should be in the cuban talks? capital flight to the dow 20 i reckon.

    Reply
  5. We are still in post storm repair / post Grandling visit / post ginormous 4th Party. I have a new pontoon canopy ordered and on the way but leave shards in place should Mrs. E care to go for a toodle. There is a lot of shade with a gaping sunroof on drivers side. Drinkers side is sorta kinda as was. So, it being my best thing, I’ll do nothing.

    Still sorting out my race boat though, given an hour tidying lines there is more to do before I would set a sail. I have a mast rebend plan sorted but know this will slide on the do now route ahead. The pole in my barn has some of my attachment gear (wire rig) but it not identical. Maybe I will get out to crew for someone else? Possible. Rail Meat -or- Call Tactics or both? TBD.

    Needing more projects in life I allowed the Painting Co. in to price what Mrs. E wants plus eliminate *super* high work so … Egor need not go full Flying Wallenda. It was going to get done so this removes all high work absent the Great Room (think 24′). Why is it next? Ask my Bride.

    On fires. There have been dry years when forests here in the Heartland burn. Honestly, it’s beyond me why homesteaders don’t have hidey holes with local water gravity flow to get wet / stay alive (if, trapped, some one should evacuate). Every Farmer worth shite around here has a “root celler” which is actually a storm / tornado shelter. On.site. Near enough to run to.

    The second blow just before the holiday was an enormous pop-up which had down draft popping any untethered object airborne. We had (3) inbound 10′ fiberglass missiles. The Sunfish dinghy sat in place (weight?). The kayaks remained in place (trusty bungees). All else flew.

    It’s not some causal climate change. Climate is always in dynamic change. You new here? Live long enough and you see it all. Now, watch again. I remember an aged pontoon being rolled. 12-13 men rolled it back over and the aged Mercury outboard ran!

    I am also part of a crew of sailors who rescued an MC (like mine) which got tossed. I knew the family but not Doc, the owner / sailor. It hurt to see his boat beyond repair. We hustled up a Baker’s Dozen and rolled the guys boat over. It was repaired and sails here to this day. Doc’s Wife hobbled out with a bucket of cold beers as we left. Lovely lady.

    Stay sharp homeys.
    Mkts? Watch the TNX (now in yikes land)
    Restart WW2 style convoys to end-around the Persian Pirates.

    Buckle up!
    Egor ~~~

    ps – extra credit reading :

    On fires, seeing trees for the forest
    https://www.mountaineers.org/blog/did-you-know-wildfire-resilient-plants

    Words from a sage (quoth the raven)
    Your Delusion Doesn’t Make Me A “Doomer”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2026-07-08/your-delusion-doesnt-make-me-doomer

    Reply
  6. July? It’s time to rotate out the survival supplies purchased during the heyday of Monica Lewinsky.

    ‘Never believe your own bullsheet.’

    – Gandhi

    Reply
    • I hired a local trash firm to load up and take two goodly size truckloads of stuff to the landfill and/or recycling. It was the old mowers they may have taken for recycling. Anything potentially perishable that had been left out in the garage heat for an extended period went with it. And yeah, I should have done this or that instead, but sometimes you just have to clear the mistakes out. Still got more work to do, but most of the really big, heavy stuff is out of the way. Got a few smaller rat’s nests to clean out and organize, but most of that will go to the curb at normal pick-up.
      In cleaning out the house, one of the things that I discovered while cleaning out junk drawers and containers in the house was how useful a lot of that stuff is. The junk drawers are central to operating a suburban farm, probably more so than a shop. Without the contents of them, almost nothing can be made to work. I have a new appreciation of the role of clutter in permanent installations. I’m not a hoarder but I have held on to stuff for projects long abandoned. I am assessing the need to hang on to anything that occupies floor space, that I don’t really ever use.
      The worst stay-go decision to date was to throw out a big roll of plastic that I had imagined I would need in a multitude of projects, but never actually used any of it. It was godawful heavy and didn’t stack well.
      The table saw that built two houses will go to a neighbor later in the month. If I ever feel the need to replace, I’ll probably go for a radial arm saw. Decisions, decisions.

      Reply
  7. (“We are – right now – in what I call “IHOP Markets.” Because prices keep waffling.

    Our best guess (and that’s all market lookaheads are., in all reality), it looks to us like there is clear sailing ahead until Labor Day. “)

    hmmm…https://youtube.com/shorts/BSvi2dTsDr0?si=D52l7GVGr5tW5MYd
    Lol…
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F0He49j_5-g&pp=ygUfQXVjdGlvbmVlciBzZWxsaW5nIGp1bmsgYXMgZ29vZA%3D%3D

    I had a rolling dishwasher..it broke and was a bunch of junk..next door was a friends dad that was an autioneer.I asked can I toss this in the pile to be hauled to the dump..sure.. then I watched as he dragged it out and into the lineup selling it..he would do that chant and every once in a while he’d say its a good one folks..lol lol…
    Seriously.. its the auctioneers chant.. u says everything’s great. But from the muddy bottom, you can see the stress long before the market admits it. The neighborhoods insulated from real life don’t feel the pressure until it’s too late. It’s not 1929 — but the pattern of narrative vs. reality looks familiar.

    Reply
    • I decided to avoid getting involved in retailing junk. There were several items I could of hauled to the metal recycling place myself, but it would have taken two loads and an entire day, and at best, I might have broken even on gas and a burger.
      There is also the issue of safety in me doing solo heavy lifts.
      And there are also risks involved with hanging contact info out, and allowing pack rats on the property. The trash service are the devils I know. And they showed up on time, for a change.

      Reply
  8. the article on the “Barbault “Basket” isn’t actually prophecy — instead I believe that it’s pattern tracking. Barbault spent his life studying how civilizations reorganize themselves during periods when the slow outer planets cluster together. He wasn’t predicting events or dates… instead he was observing that these long cycle overlaps often line up with politically shifts, economic resets, and cultural turning points similar to the Mayan calendar..

    People also misunderstood the Mayan calendar the same way because they treated it like a countdown to destruction, when it was really just the end of one cycle and the beginning of another. A reset, not an ending…..

    The Barbault “Basket” theory works the same way. It isn’t prophecy — it’s pattern tracking of astrological events aligning with events in life… Barbault spent decades studying how civilizations would reorganize themselves during periods when the slow outer planets cluster together….he was observing historical rhythms.

    These alignments Interesting as they are don’t usually cause anything physically. They’re symbolic markers of moments when human systems tend to shift…. Kind of like a black cat crossing your path is bad luck..when the reality was that derived back in the day when lights on a path weren’t a normal thing and a person couldn’t see the black cat and trip over it..it had nothing to do with luck or fate..

    instead what i believe is the solar system is a burning star with magnetic planets spiraling behind it as we drift through space heading towards an unknown destination. Alignments don’t trigger events — they just highlight the cycles of change that have been repeating for thousands of years.

    His 2020 pandemic call wasn’t really mystical — he simply noted that the cycle overlap pointed to a global stress period, the same way historians and economists talk about generational cycles.

    of course that’s just how I see it….and I can guarantee you if we ever got lost and it was up to me to guide us all to survival…well we are lost…I have a servant but dam sure know I don’t know how to use the dam thing..its for looks lol

    The July 2026 Basket is symbolically interesting, but physically it does nothing. It’s just another moment where long cycles overlap and humans feel the tension of change. The solar system is a burning star with magnetic planets spiraling behind it as we drift through space. Alignments don’t cause events — they just mark the rhythms of history that have been repeating for thousands of years…..don’t hold your breath or wear your tinfoil hat in the belief its going happen.. well maybe wear the tinfoil hat..start a new fad…then buy stock in the tinfoil market..

    Reply
    • wise words LOOB. symbolic markers which may be nothing more than a blink of the eye to the universe but transcend millions of years in Earth time, far beyond our human lifespan.

      unrelated but curious George – what happened to my Tecumseh dream post?

      lost in the cosmic mail room…………..?

      Reply
        • Yes you G, also omitted one of my recent posts…why not make a limit on how many ‘posts per day per poster’ you allow, some are doing 5+ per day, put a limit on everybody, including the ‘paying’ subscribers like myself.

          Is there intentional censorship from ‘Ure’s Truly” ?

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