Gold and Silver Call Inflation, Rich at Christmas Test, Eggnogg Shortage

These may not all apply to you. But, around here, they are all part of making the season merry. So we’ll begin…

Breaking: Durable Goods

Drop to Suck:

Oh, but not to worry, no sir!

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Confused?  The SUCKS! number is in Q4 – the happytalk BS is Q3…all in reading the fine print, brothers and sisters.

Futures have turned down, Santa might be “sleighed” and the elves?  Some of ’em have Molotov’s…

Gold, Silver Roar

The snapshot on https://finviz.com today was glorious.

Yes, that’s right – Gold is still marching toward $4,600 and silver has done a “kiss and run” from the $70+ level.  But, what does this tell us about real inflation?

A story to illustrate:  Back in 2004, we bought a new Kubota tractor. $14,000, zero percent interest – including bush hog, box blade, and front loader.  Now, at the time  I was making some of that six-figure paper and I had a choice.  I could put $3,500 into silver.  OR I could pay off the small tractor balance.  Obviously, you know which way that went.

Here’s the interesting part of the math:  At the time the “paper” would pay off 25 percent of the new tractor price.  Remember this:  500 ounces of silver = 25% of a new tractor.

Just for the hell of it, I looked up the price of a comparable new Kubota 25-HP 4×4 today. Most new 25 HP tractors are sold in “package deals” that include a front loader and other common implements. These packages typically fall in the $26,000 to $30,000 range.

At $70 an ounce, if I still had the 500 ounces in hand, it’d be enough to not only buy the tractor, but with enough left-over to toss in a 20-foot trailer (so we could drive it around the block). And still have enough liftoff to shack-up at a fancy Big City No-tell for a weekend.

Even if you’re not awake what should strike you is this:  The “hard purchasing power of paper” seems to have lost about 75 percent of its oomph since 2005.  And if you go back to 1913 when the Banker’s Cabal wrested control of the Nation’s money (from an equally questionable Congress) you’ll see we have lost 97 percent of our oomph.

BRICS and China are coming for our chair – as the world’s Reserve Currency – and we’ve still got a long ways to go.  Including more wars and such.  But this is what matters – Street Level Economics.

Moral for the Christmas Stocking?  Chase utility value (as in “has industrial use”) not paper with zeros on it.  Paper is going wildly out of style.  Who prints shit in the digital world? About the only killer app left for paper is Charmin.

The “Rich at Christmas” Test

1. Log into your credit card account.
2. Note balance,
3. If Balance:  $0.00 you are RICH!
4. If the Balance >0, either:
   1. You haven’t made the transfer yet. Or…
   2. You got sucked into buying things you didn’t need or couldn’t afford.

And, for ANOTHER YEAR, Elaine and I will have made it through 365 yoke-free days of not paying a damn cent of interest. We don’t “buy payments” – we buy utility value.  And that leads to?

Fact For Action: Buyer’s Remorse

Fact: Buyer’s remorse is not just emotional regret — studies show it’s a predictable cognitive response that spikes after irreversible purchases, especially when choices are complex, expensive, or made under time pressure. The brain replays “what else I could have done” once the option set collapses to zero.

So what: That regret can distort judgment, leading people to either double-down defensively (“I had to do it”) or freeze future decisions altogether. In markets, this shows up as panic selling after tops, overpaying for convenience, or refusing to exit bad positions because admitting error feels worse than the loss.

Action: Before any major purchase or commitment, write down one sentence answering this question: “What specific job does this do for me that nothing cheaper or simpler can?” If you can’t answer cleanly, pause 24 hours. After purchase, stop comparison shopping entirely — it only manufactures regret. The goal isn’t perfect decisions; it’s fewer decisions you second-guess.

Action 2:  See the eggnog discussion further down the column…

Peace On Earth? 

Oh yeah?

First you need a Navy: Trump announces new US warship class named after himself.  Umm…will they have hot tubs?

The Canadian insurgency is still in power as ’60 Minutes’ segment on El Salvador prison mistakenly airs in Canada after network delays release.

“Yes, but what about peace?” Will a New Mideast War Erupt Over Iran’s Growing Ballistic Missile Arsenal? | The New York Sun

And does this lead to War or preemptive cauterization?  China likely loaded more than 100 ICBMs in silo fields: Pentagon,

By the way: we’re so old that we remember when only sailboats were called “blow boats.” US attacks ‘low-profile vessel’ alleging it ‘was engaged in narco-trafficking’

Remarkably:

Need a grade changed on a transcript? 3.5 Million Affected by University of Phoenix Data Breach – SecurityWeek

Hot air about wind farms is subsiding.  U.S. Offshore Wind Industry Hit With Fresh Blow as Projects Suspended. In case you didn’t know how this game was played?  There’s a case (in data) to be made that the federal land leases on which these monsters were built were mostly owned by politically active (contributors) and the whole charade was a back-end political scam.  Like certain solar outfits and…oh, don’t get me started…

Look for Leticia James to see higher office going forward.  She’s deeply involved as States sue the Trump administration over CFPB funding.

Around the Ranch: The Texas Eggnog Shortage

Pulling the clicker on the (home delivery) shopping order Monday was delayed.  It seems that WalMart was out of a seasonal favorite around here – “Southern Comfort Eggnog.”

Threading the online shopping gauntlet is serious business this week:  You need to get that order clicked in at precisely the right moment.  Too early, and you might get the day-old bread.  Too late? Well, the last of the big prime ribs will be gone.  No telling when the gallon jugs of burgundy to go with it will go “out of stock.”  We’ve all been there, right?

But the eggnog.  OMG sure it has poison sugar (HFCS) in it.  But three days a year, WTF?  Not that we will run to the store to buy rum (and more nutmegs to grind over it) but you do know right out of the carton, this is the best French Toast batter of Earth?  With some added nutmegs, of course.

Come now to the archive and let me school you on the history of eggnog – because this is jaw-dropping dinner table conversation material:

Eggnog traces its roots back to medieval Britain, where a hot, milky, ale-based drink called “posset” was popular among the well-to-do. Posset was often thickened with eggs and flavored with spices, then used as both a comfort drink and a remedy for colds. Because milk, eggs, and spices were expensive, these early versions were largely reserved for the upper classes, served in silver or wooden bowls during winter gatherings and special occasions.  (None of which were large enough for us…)

As the drink evolved, wine or sherry replaced ale, and the mixture became richer and smoother. When the tradition crossed the Atlantic with British colonists in the 17th and 18th centuries, it changed again. In the American colonies, rum was far cheaper and more available than European wines, thanks to Caribbean trade routes. The combination of milk, eggs, sugar, and rum became a staple of holiday celebrations, particularly on farms where dairy and eggs were plentiful. God parted the skies and added spiced rum (Sailor Jerry or the Captain seems not to matter after the first few) in 1974, or thereabouts.

The name “eggnog” is thought to come from “nog,” a strong ale, or possibly from “noggin,” a small wooden cup used to serve drinks. By the 19th century, eggnog had become firmly associated with Christmas and winter festivities in the United States, often prepared in large batches and sometimes aged with spirits for weeks or months. Recipes varied widely by region and family, with some favoring brandy or bourbon and others insisting on rum.  Half of the morning (while the food order lands) will be spent debating driving into town for rum.  Or, “roughing it” with Jack Daniel’s.  (See how delicate the environmental balances are out in farm country?)

Over time, eggnog shifted from a homemade, occasionally potent punch to a commercial seasonal product, pasteurized and sweetened for mass consumption. Despite that, the drink still carries echoes of its past: a reminder of agricultural abundance, winter feasting, and the old habit of turning simple farm ingredients into something indulgent during the darkest days of the year.  Which was yesterday, or so.

Near as we can remember.

Write when it gets light, the rum shows up, or Santa brings an aim-point.

George@Ure.net

PS New post on Hidden Guild (my AI research site) if you have an interest