That’s the main idea that folks on Wall St. and in Washington would like to put out there, except whether it’s believable is another matter. We begin with the data just released by the Labor Department:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining.
Household Survey Data
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point. (See table A-1.) (See the note and tables B and C for information about the effect of annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.2 percent), adult women (5.9 percent), teenagers (20.7 percent), whites (5.7 percent), blacks (12.1 percent), and Hispanics (8.4 percent) showed little change in January. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 1.7 percentage points over the year.
Next, we take a look at the “estimated into existence” numbers that come from the CES Birth-Death Model. But that data set *usually found here* hadn’t been updated at press time.
A couple of other key numbers to slosh around in the old noggin: One is the labor participation rate which picked up 0.2% to 63% of the workforce. The absolute number of employed was up too…by 638,000 workers.
Also, the table U6 number (alternative measures of labor under-utilization) dropped to 12.7% from 13.1%.
All of which is likely to lead to a 75-point rally in the Dow at the open, or thereabouts.
One more number to keep an eye on, and it will come in the final hour before the market closes today: That’s the Federal Reserve data on Consumer Debt (which they call credit, but it’s all about them, isn’t it?).
Current 3-month M1 print rate is now screaming along at 9.3% rate annualized.
So if prices are going up 2 1/2% does that mean deflation is 7 1/2%?
Hype-Coins Biting the Dust?
I couldn’t help but notice that the (much touted and hyped) price of Bitcoins was down to $683 when I looked earlier. Not to say that they won’t have another rise – who knows? But the reason du jour for the drop is that a Japan based exchange is troubling things and that leaves the future of Bitcoin (some claim) bright, but (to me) questionable…if that makes sense.
From the top: As I’ve consistently told you: Bitcoins do not end any federal tax obligations, they aren’t backed by anything, any more than the dollar is, and they have the additional risks of being hacked at some point as well as requiring a computer and the internet in order to work.
As we’ve pointed out before, on balance, that $100- bill in your pocket looks like it still works about as well in comparison and it bring the tax avoidance worries that go with crypto currencies. Yep, I’m old school…
But seriously: As clever as financial commentator Max Keiser is with his logic behind claims of superiority of his new MaxCoin, we have to wonder why anyone would be silly enough to trust a pseudo currency backed by a pundit and computers versus staying with a currency backed by (lemme see here…) an Army, Navy, Air Force and IRS.
Am I the only one who noticed the Feds are going after coinsters for operating unregistered money transfer operations which is (cower in the corner as I invoke the great word) terrorism?
Common sense, for now, tells me to keep money on Goliath and don’t bet on the David’s…there’s gonna be a whole parade of them and eventually – as we forecast in Peoplenomics – the feds will roll out their version of alt money and that will be that.
The whole thing keeps being packaged by the hypsters as a bunch of Paul Revere types. That’s the kind of emo marketing that makes road kill. Ask me about how Iraqi Dinars are doing?
Sochi Lights Up
To read the International Business Times version of it, the Sochi Games will have a kind of ‘Hail Stalin-era Industrial Revolution” vibe to it.
For some of the better streaming out there, check out www.rt.com or see them live on free to air satellite TV.
Ukraine Calendar
With the leaking documents starting to speed up, what we’ve been reporting about the West trying to dismember Ukraine and shove it into the EU bag of losers, seems spot on with the New York Times now reporting on the Russian Claims US Meddling over Ukraine.
The US, meantime, is eating that F*ck the EU remark. Apparently, we can’t speak directly about how the Enterprise is off conquering the world for the NWOers who are effectively stealing democracy from Europe and sitting back as the EU goes expansionist mindset on the world. (Ask the Syrians about this.)
Circle February 24 on the calendar – Sochi games are over on the 23rd. Putin’s gonna take action after the games.
Global Warming
Snowing in Beijing this morning.
US: Never Stops Selling
The Chinese media, by the way, are giving some prominence to the story “Iran urges to stop pressuring Tehran over nuclear program.”
The Obamanista press mongers keeps hinting at “dismantling” and the Iranians are asking us to stop making up things that weren’t in the nuclear agreement. Who, US?
Bye-Bye Leno
This is just a place-holder because if you really cared, you would have stayed up late to watch.
If you were overcome by sleep, the Washington Post coverage here summarizes.
Drought and About
While there has been a little bit of rain now in parched central California, there are still plenty of drought worries. Like this story that says in some places just 89-days until there is no water.
Those New Clinton Claims – A Curious Recant
Yesterday, we were telling you there was a story making the rounds alleging how ex-prez Bill Clinton supposedly had another affair besides the Monica story that’s been beat to death several times over….the claim was that Bill’d been with an actress.
WELL… now comes the curious recant as “Tom Sizemore admits to making up story about year-long affair between Elizabeth Hurley and former President Bill Clinton, citing past drug use.”
All of which is interesting and all of which is likely to end up in the courts. But I wanted to be sure to pass it along since Hillary will likely be on the demo ticket in 2016…
And, unless the republicorps can figure out how to speak in complete sentences that make sense, will probably win. I mean, like it, or don’t, that’s reality. Sort of like arguing with gravity or yelling at the time. Though I still think Ted Cruz would do well…. but he’s up against an aristocracy.
Quake Watching
No, that 6.5 quake down in Vanuatu is NOT some “Big One” that various forecasters have been talking about. Hell, in that part of the world, that’s about routine. Still Patrick Geryl and others are on their toes about today and tomorrow because of various lineups and we may get a minor solar wind bump today from earlier (minor, not world-ending)
Coming up on 3 months without a 7.0….crustal expansion dynamics are rolling into stable due to reduced solar output, maybe?