CFNAI – Trigger Event Watch – Prepping While We Can

TL;DR:  The world isn’t ending – yet. But the CFNAI is out and the yammer Fed Head circuit is buzzing. Markets aren’t happy. Although we’re amazed the cyberattacks on airports is playing as a non-event. World is “on the high board” and ready for its swan die – we recommend prepping while you can. Now the gory…

CFNAI

World hasn’t ended – and some of us still wonder why rates were pushed down by he Fed except as another freebie for the already too rich class.

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.12 in August from –0.28 in July. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from July, but three categories made negative contributions in August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.18 in August from –0.20 in July.

  • Production-related indicators contributed –0.02 to the CFNAI in August, up from –0.17 in July.
  • The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in August, up from –0.02 in July.
  • Employment-related indicators contributed –0.07 to the CFNAI in August, up from –0.10 in July.
  • The personal consumption and housing category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.03 in August, down from +0.02 in July.

The balance of this week should  remain within norms.  But two items on the real impact of Inflation to be aware of.

First, Gold and Silver were up strongly in the early slog.  Silver is camped north of $44 at press time and Gold was $3,763.  We would not be surprised to see Gold over $4,000 and Silver established north of $50 before the year’s out.  But please, don’t take this as “advice.”

Second thing is “electric powered money” – the kind that can disappear in a flash (drive of EMP, you make the call) – isn’t participating. BTC made a run at $118,000 Sunday but was back down in the $113,000 range at press time.

Interestingly, the role of all this “crypto nonsense” is the focus of Peoplenomics Wednesday, so subscribers will have much to think about.

Cyber Target: Airports

We are frankly surprised that markets have taken the weekend cyber attacks on airports with such ease.  Sure you’re aware of the DFW/Love mess.  And elsewhere, too, as  Cyberattack at airport disrupts more flights across Europe.

Or SME on cyber (subject matter expert), in his “life after oak leaf clusters” is well-qualified to assess the state of airline data resilience…and it ain’t good:

“The airline industry is in chaos due to a compromise to its globally integrated MUSE travel system. But Wait! ‘Experts’ fear the attack is a prelude to “something bigger!”,  ‘Cyber attack’ that crippled major airports ‘could be test for something bigger’.

Any industry so heavily reliant upon secure cyber systems has an implicit obligation to rigorously and continuously conduct penetration testing on systems and interfaces. Levying intrusion detection software onto any enterprise-wide architecture is a formidable task, but  solid and necessary next step to providing a secure and trustworthy information management system.

Other steps include establishing a reliable backup system, ready to take over for the short term in an emergency capacity if/when a compromise occurs, allowing operations to continue without significant interruption or system disruption. The backup system allows time for a system reboot without significant disruption to operations. Also, continuously applying reliable, updated intrusion detection tools can help to establish when an attack is occurring and what that attack is targeting.

OK, so the airlines have been nicked by cyber black hats. What other integrated, networked industries should we now expect to be targeted? Satcoms/Telecoms? Weather? Financials & Banking? The Internet/World Wide Web?

Strap Ure-selves in. I’m thinking it’s gonna be a wild ride!”

In our early-morning scenario-building ahead of Peoplenomics, one thing that strikes us is critical supply chains haven’t been sliced – yet.  Sorry about the late flights to Europe and all, but just how safe is the WORLD’S online financial system?  Or, the electricity that powers it? Or the food and pipelines… See in our work at the upper and lower expectation boundaries, things could go “almost OK” or it could be the “shit hitting the fan” for humans.

More on that in Peoplenomics Wednesday.

Squibs and Dribs

(Which sounded slightly more refined than scribbles and dribbles…)

Trump’s new bropmance? Kim ready for talks if U.S. gives up denuclearization demand.

The crazies are still out and back: Patrons at New Hampshire shooting prevented worse tragedy, AG says .

The real estate war drags on in Gaza.  World summit to meet on two-state solution.  And really, so what? Sanctions on Israel unlikely to shift realities on the ground, says Vivian Balakrishnan.

“With friends like this, who needs enemies?” UK, Canada, Australia Offer Jews ‘High Holy Days’ Present by Recognizing Islamic Terror State Dedicated to Killing Jews. My consigliere says keep an eye on the growing balance of danger in Israel as this weekend Pakistan says its nuclear program available to Saudi Arabia under defense pact.

In the other real estate confrontation, UN human rights expert says Russia steps up repression to silence opposition to war in Ukraine. Which ramps a bit on word of Dramatic moment Ukraine destroys TWO of Putin’s prized amphibious war planes for the first time in latest major scalp.  Observer note: The Polish Seer fellow says Putin is considering the use of bio-weapons in Eastern Europe to move residents out of Poland, so be watching for that escalation.  Which will sandwich with U.N. Security Council to meet on Russia’s incursion into Estonia airspace – UPI.com

Around the Ranch: Prepping While We Can

In case anyone asks?  A Square D outdoor service entrance panel came in two flavors when our old double-wide was dumped in the woods around 1990:  There was the Homeline version and the QO.  The difference?

  • Homeline (HOM) – the budget line, introduced in the late 1980s/early 1990s. Uses aluminum bus bars in most versions, plug-on neutral designs in later ones, and breakers are a bit wider than the premium line. Very common in mobile homes and cost-sensitive installs.
  • QO (for “Qwik-Open”) – the premium line. The “QO” stands for Quick Open, describing the patented trip mechanism. These breakers have the little orange trip indicator window and are generally regarded as more durable. They use copper bus bars in most panels and are often specified in higher-end residential and light commercial installs.

One of the breakers (50 Amp) feeding the shop sub panel was kicking out and screwing up my sell back of RE power (duh…when one leg trips out…).

Now I can tell you two things with near-certainty.  Square D Homeline breakers have a 45-degree (or so) notch in the bottom.   While the QO breakers have a metal snap-on for the buss rail – so a snap on the  bottom and a snap on the top.

Also, I found Circuit Breaker Guys was cheaper than other online sources…now that I own both types of breakers…ahem…

After that little  soiree, I moved on to the toilet in the master bath and put in new guts.  A Korky QuietFILL 2X Long Life Toilet Fill Valve – Universal Fits 99% of Toilets ..  Which gets me to my newly invented hobby of tracking what long-lived products will really outlive me…  Easy install, less than 10-minutes and no need for the additional package of foul-language I’d brought just in case.

(Morbid?  Yeah, well, maybe.  I mean WTF….at least there’s a purpose to aging further, right?)

Then Sunday continued on to removing a mold spot in the guest bath ceiling…jeez do we know how to have fun around here, or what?  A more mellow and retrospective ShopTalk Sunday is here.

The Hot Times of Dr. John

Buddy of mine, who was the real-life doc for the (also real-life) Men Who Stare at Goats has an extremely admirable trait:  He walks his talk.  From a high dollar big-city top-of-the-heap practice now winding down somewhere semi-rural, Dr. John and his lovely have “stepped out of targeting packages” and are living happily ever after.  And making things.

Like his latest – which is an Extra Large 55-gallon drum based stove.

“My barrel oven with integral roof is complete. We got the first fire going and got it up to 700 degrees F to burn off the paint. We then closed the damper and let the fire go out. Five hours later, we heated up a loaf of bread with butter at 200….”

Really a nice design – and notice the ash door?  Attention to details like that matter.

That and the big overhangs which means this is an all-weather cooking tool.

Why I’m feeling so ambitious I may try to cobble one up myself.  Except for I’m not as ambitious or skilled as Dr. John.  A couple of bricks and a beer can is more my speed.

This reminds me of my friend Michael’s pizza oven he built (near his bocci ball court) out on his East Bay spread… Must be a kind of “real preparedness rite of passage” programmed down deep.  Remember last year? I put in that outdoor patio with a small coffee-making backpacking stove on it? For when I don’t want to fire up a rocket stove or sun oven?

Interesting this “low level-formatting of the prepper mind,,,”  seems to work. Ham radio, resilient energy, natural cooking sources….

OK, time to be going to “Rock Monday” and our first roll will be a 1970’s John Mayall blue’s piece “Room to Move…”

Write when you burn out – plenty of time to sleep in the dirt…

George@Ure.net

52 thoughts on “CFNAI – Trigger Event Watch – Prepping While We Can”

    • The Tin Drum (1979) ORIGINAL TRAILER [HD]

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NTKLqhT-tTo

      A darkly comic war drama with magical realist elements, the film follows Oskar, a precocious child living in Danzig, who wields seemingly preternatural abilities. He lives in contempt of the adults around him and witnesses firsthand their potential for cruelty, first via the rise of the Nazi Party and then the subsequent war. The title refers to Oskar’s toy drum, which he loudly plays whenever he is displeased or upset.

  1. Yo Holmes,

    Whats this slowing down and Dying crap. Bunch of frigging Wendy whiners on here of late. WTF ?
    You have got to keep moving =Walking – its the Hydraulics..keeps scheisse moving…thats the KEY right there ! “KEEPS SCHEISSE MOVING” dammit.

    Its the 4th turning 4 goodness sakes, and Youse Boomers are the prey, the target of the new generation of pissed off Citizens. This current World is Ure world – you created it, you accepted it and in fact legalized ALL of it. Now is the time to pay the Bills, and for a Generation that has been given everything to them on a Silver platter, well they no likey that..NERP.
    But thats only the half of it, in case you haven’t noticed, U haven’t, Christianity is under assault..Christians be on the “chopping block” and are being targeted for liquidation going forward.

    Not to worry though if youse Russian or have superstar Russian Hockey player (s) on Ure hometown team…Lets Go Flyers!
    Mourning the great Bernie Parent in Philly this weekend ..we lost a GREAT one. As the bumper stickers read back 1970’s in Phila area “Only The Lord Saves More Than Bernie Parent.

    Could use a guy like that now.

    *Russia’s latest TS Missile system unveiled..Bigger, Faster, More powerful, hotter than Oreshnik, ladies and germs I give you the OSINA. As Russian MP quipped to NATO over the weekend, “No one will be left to bury the Dead” Next Generation is hear now.

    dundundun

    • For youse BCP, the official mouthpiece for the alphabet agency. Get ready homegamers

      Got preps?

      https://youtu.be/u105UtPv76A

      Not Advice, but tell us Steevo, before we unlock your bank account and RLUSD stablecoins within, tell us where you got all those FRN’s to be swapped out with the new currency?

      And now, in. Nod to Mr.Ure, more and more specialists are admitting the 4th turning out loud now. …not advice. Got blockchain.

      https://youtu.be/u105UtPv76A

  2. (“Second thing is “electric powered money” – the kind that can disappear in a flash (drive of EMP, you make the call) –

    ok..if … the academic scholars are not dimwits and their studies weren’t meant to be printed on four inch wide paper perforated in four inch lengths.. and we do go numb nuts like drooling morons.. into war.. would there ever be an internet? probably not in our lifetime.. all the indicators say there’s several thousand year intervals between growth and I think it was the U.S. Congressional EMP Commission and military analysts. One particularly vivid comparison came from a U.S. Navy Proceedings article, which warned that a severe EMP event—whether from a high-altitude nuclear detonation or a solar coronal mass ejection—could plunge society into “18th-century conditions in minutes”
    then several other studies.. all being ignored..what I believe is it doesn’t affect them so even though its seen it isn’t felt. figures can be used to show positive and negative giving one a false hope..until the wave hits.

    • “what I believe is it doesn’t affect them so even though its seen it isn’t felt.”

      Which is fallacious. If you can live your life in an EMP (and radiation) shielded DUMB, that’s fine — that’s great!

      But what happens when the generator goes tango uniform, and you need a new field coil? No manufacturing will exist, no spares will be available, and creating a factory inside the DUMB within the necessary time frame will not be possible.

      The underground bunker will extend “modern civilization” for 20-40 years (or until the MTBF of the first essential part in the maintenance chain hits its expiry.) Then the folks inside the tin can will get to learn, from “square-1,” how to grow their own food and compete with we peons for the (by then) incredibly limited food supply. I doubt they learn quickly enough to survive.

      The reason I have hoes, hand-tillers, a scythe, shovels, mattocks, and a half-ton of LTS seed is so whomever in my family survives the EOTWAWKI, can feed themselves, once tractors become yard art…

      • Exactly…… most people and most politicians prep with the image that every thing we take for granted will be tgere.. many buy gold and silver with the assumption that they can walk in and use it as a currency..the DUMB bunkers are nothing more than tombs..
        our factories have been abandoned…
        https://i.pinimg.com/736x/81/2c/f7/812cf7272f3a2bcbcf85010325874271–steel-mill-abandoned.jpg
        they are rusting away..the scales have been tipping to far to one side.. When the velocity of money slows, when opportunity becomes scarce and wealth pools in isolated corners, people begin to search for meaning, for direction, for someone who promises change. That’s how figures like Hitler and Stalin gained traction—not just through ideology, but by offering a goal to pursue in times of despair. A society where people have no purpose, no path, and no stake in the future becomes dangerously vulnerable—not only to authoritarian promises, but to collapse from within. Just as dangerous, though, is a system that funnels all benefits to one elite class, leaving the rest to watch from the margins. Both extremes—purposelessness and concentrated privilege—erode the social fabric. What’s needed is a shared pursuit, a sense that every citizen has a role in shaping the future, not just surviving it. Without that, history doesn’t just repeat—it rhymes with ruin. The true catastrophic endgame isn’t just inflation or debt—it’s the loss of industrial self-reliance and the erosion of purpose in our youth. When a country can no longer reproduce what it needs—tools, medicines, machines—it becomes dependent, brittle, and vulnerable. But worse still is when the child no longer sees a future in building, crafting, or contributing. When factories are outsourced and trades are dismissed, the legacy of labor is severed. The son no longer dreams of working beside his father; he’s taught to consume, not to create. And in that void, despair grows. A nation that forgets how to make things forgets how to make meaning.In the event of war or any catastrophic disruption, the true vulnerability of a nation isn’t just in its supply chains—it’s in the loss of industrial memory. Without the ability to repair, reproduce, or retool, everything crumbles . I was speaking with a manager at one of the country’s top cabinet manufacturers who shared a telling moment: a vital machine broke down, and four younger technicians spent three days trying to fix it. When the oldest, soon-to-retire repairman arrived, he had it running in under an hour I laughed and told him the tale of the buggies power steering hose that needed to be replaced and I never drove the buggy again. That’s not just skill—it’s legacy hands on knowledge, the kind that isn’t written in manuals but passed through hands and years the old man passing what he knows skills down. If we lose that generation without transmitting their wisdom, we won’t just face downtime—we’ll be thrust back to the pre-industrial age, relearning from scratch what once hummed with precision. The machines may still stand, but without the minds to guide them, they are monuments to a forgotten craft.In the event the academics have consistently said..there would only be a handful of individuals left..is why I leave instructions on every old tool that I have the brick and block press to rebuild homes schools and clinics..
        that’s why Xi and Putin have put a great deal of time during ghost cities ghost factories and underground shelters to have the ability to fire up and rebuild. where we could have cared less..back in the sixties the USA had emergency drills and shelters throuout every city.. today once a month they have an irritating noise but no direction nothing .. we left our grid vulnerable so a few can justify their wages where it could be strong like China .. here’s where I put in the solar towers at every substation and handing out grid tie solar power to every home ..its the cheaper alternative but doesn’t fit the business model. neither does the greenscaping of cities to replace farmland that has been destroyed through urban expansion.air wells for arid regions etc.our infrastructure is already vulnerable ..neglected to pursue wars so a few schmucks could gain more money,power etc. the number on a sheet..its why I teach the kids how to make the most valuable tool of all..paper and pencil.. well I have to go make the ten bucks I make at this job..

        • George,

          I can certainly agree with LOOB regarding the importance of skill and wisdom acquired after many years experience at repairing and maintaining machinery. Sadly, many young people believe those skills are irrelevant in this modern age of AI and computers, as well as the disregard many young people have for older folks. Many of us, who are now the older folks, were taught, when we were kids, to respect older people because they have been through and seen what living can bring, like hardships and challenges. When the power goes out, and the grid comes down, many of us will still be able to continue with life.

        • “is why I leave instructions on every old tool”

          In what language?

          I believe in some cases and with some civilizations, this is how some of the obscure hieroglyphics came to exist. A society. about to die off, tried to leave instructions for any who might find the remains of their presence — a manual, not a daybook…

  3. “meet on two-state solution. ”

    The designers of the 2-State have been long gone. It’s a con.

    “The two-state solution was first proposed in 1937 by the British Peel Commission, which recommended dividing the former Palestinian mandate into separate Jewish and Arab states.”

    Humanity cannot prep for what’s coming. Every time the God looks down @ Vance he’s getting madder & madder at the U.S.A. Putin has it right w/neutralizing the Satanists so it’s likely Russia is going to ‘mow the lawn’.

    “The woman shall not wear that which pertaineth unto a man, neither shall a man put on a woman’s garment: for all that do so are abomination unto the LORD thy God.”

    • Sure you can prep for whats coming – get yo self some Popscorn.

      When that day arrives, and they are sitting up there blocking out the Sunlight for 100’s of miles (Ship is miles long), the Peeps will look up from their Jobs, Kids, Kitchen counters, CPU screens and see the massive ET ship, all will simply stop what they are doing and GO HOME, to be with Loved ones..

      What happens after that – I got ideas, but I dont know squataa, cept maybe to say that the “Sons of the Elohim” are to return sooner than later..

      • I’ll be planting next years garlic early October , ‘ 4th pre-planned, and cleaning / jarring homegrown picked today and drying, hope to finish prior the 10th.
        Plant tulips and hoe the next row.

    • re: “D israeli”, 1929
      feat: best actor Oscar

      Out of Work Steve,
      Great Scott! Has Chamberlain’s September, 1940 “peace in our time” speech at Downing Street just been surpassed with Sir Starmer’s recognition of Palestine?

      Interestingly the PM’s video statement (with inadvertant freemason hand signals?) seems to have been recorded in a hallway leading from the front entry foyer of #10 Downing Street. An opening behind and left of the speaking PM would appear to be the staircase entry where sits a partially visible bust of famous – or infamous depending – 19th century imperialist PM Benjamin Disraeli, Earl of Beaconsfield. Although Disraeli seems to get credited as being the UK’s only Jewish PM, apparently his father actually converted his family to the Church of England faith. Somehow PM Disraeli’s name crops up with mention of the Rothchilds gaining seat holds in the House of Commons and the House of Lords back in the day.

      May the following January, 2025 link from “The Art Newspaper” serve to calm any troubled minds as a bust of Sir Winston Churchill had then resurfaced in the White House Oval Office:

      https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2025/01/21/controversial-bust-winston-churchill-oval-office-trump

      • My junior warden son would like groan at such indiscretion. But given that “like steel sharpens steel, men sharpen men,” we think Sir Stardust is in the unrecoverable pile. With Chamberlain – well called, Winnipeg!
        Indeed, europe has only begun to fright.

        • Blondie – “The Hardest Part” (1979)

          25 tons of hardened steel, rolls on no ordinary wheel
          Inside the armored car, ride two big armed guards
          In a bulletproof vest, shatterproof glass overdrive, we?re gonna pass…
          25 tons of hardened steel, rolls on, no ordinary wheel

          The hardest part, of the armored guard
          Big man of steel, behind the steering wheel

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEjCDriXwnI

        • Speaking of PM Winston Churchill, a cousin of his once-removed – the 10th Duke of Marlborough – was a brother-in-law to socialite Ann Charteris. She married the 2nd Lord Rothermere who owned and whose father had co-founded the “Daily Mail” which yesterday published “Sir Stardust’s” Palestinian State recognition video noted above. (As an aside, Ann Charteris was also a sister-in-law of a brother-in-law to US First Lady Jacqueline Kennedy.)

          But wait, there’s more!

          Lady Ann Rothermere (née Charteris) found herself with child in 1952. She took airs at the Goldeneye Estate in Jamaica along with her soon-to-be third husband as he wrote his first novel, “Casino Royale” which introduced the world to James Bond of Universal Exports.

          Today of course the “Daily Mail” is 100% privately owned and operated by a fourth generation of its founding brothers. Here is a 7 year old “Times of Israel” link headlined by a 1930’s picture of “Daily Mail” co-founder Lord Rothermere bracketed by PM Chamberlain as well as Hitler and Mussolini.

          https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-britains-nazi-loving-press-baron-made-the-case-for-hitler/

      • What, pray tell, is controversial about the bust of Churchill, other than Leftists don’t want symbolism of heroes anywhere in evidence…??

  4. George,

    I heard the speech given by Erika Kirk. Instead of a call to arms, she exhibited grace under pressure and forgave the man who assassinated her husband, an unexpected moment that stunned the crowd. Her powerful words will have great healing potential, in that, like a pebble thrown into a quiet lake, the rippling effect can reverberate to many people and affect their lives. Maybe Kim Clement was right after all, as Erika acts like a modern Esther.

    • Nancy : thus far I have just heard snippets. There are ways to turn awful into less awful at least. Maybe later we can do better? Hang in, have hope, toss pebbles. Egor

      • It is an amazing piece of oratory — highly recommended. There are a bunch of people who linked to the entire speech on X. The only one I remember offhand is Ted Cruz…

    • I’m glad Erika is where she is – a sane voice under extreme pressure. I couldn’t listen to more than a fragment of her speech – it was too moving and emotional for me. I don’t do well with excessive emotions. I wish her all the best and hope we can maintain at least some peace at home.

  5. All at sea …

    I’m out of the habit this having fun thing. Guests rolled in large on Friday. First bud had a chimney sweep pro kit so checked and cleaned our main flu. It was, as expected, pretty clean. So, lots of local hardwood will go in the box when Old Man Winter comes to call.

    Saturday we journeyed to a wide spot in the St. Joe River where another mutual friend has a cottage. Friends since early ’70s, a group of musicians have an annual music fest. It’s become a thing so locals join in, with lake ladies rolling out >100′ of home cooking to go with massive amounts of BBQ. Live acoustic music (now supported by endless audio equipment) with 20+ voices is moving …

    GU : “… some of us still wonder why rates were pushed down by he Fed except as another freebie for the already too rich class …”

    Look George. Unless you deny me the right to express this (put me in poster timeout) I feel compelled to remind that’s a curious way to look at our House setting the rate(s) we will pay on our debt. The already rich will surf old money and new money (true). But we all, every US tax payer, shoulders respective share of the eternal infernal *interest* on our debt. If DXY and TNX allow lower rates, yes please Sir. May I have another?

    There are many moving pieces right now. Some are man made some not. No one knows what the puzzle looks like. It’s a struggle. Making choices, taking action, involves possibility if not probability of making mistakes. Doing nothing might be a mistake too.

    Write when Mistake-less?
    Good luck wit dat.
    Egor

    • All at sea? Let’s get the compass out.

      You’re right that lower Treasury yields make Uncle’s debt service ledger look friendlier. No argument: if Washington can roll paper at 4% instead of 5%, that’s real relief at the federal balance-sheet level. But that doesn’t automatically translate into relief for households or job creation. That’s the gap in the story.

      Here’s why:

      Credit card APRs aren’t Fed-linked.
      The “prime plus margin” model is real, but the margin is the killer. Average consumer card APRs today are 22-25% — some store cards over 30%. The Fed Funds Rate might move by a point or two, but issuers have been widening their spreads for years. The result is that rate cuts barely dent consumer debt costs. In fact, the New York Fed and CFPB have shown that the margin above prime is at all-time highs. So yes, Jerome can trim Fed Funds, but Visa, Mastercard, Citi, and AmEx don’t pass it along in any meaningful way.

      Lower rates don’t equal jobs.
      The “wealth effect” is what Fed policy usually delivers: cheaper corporate borrowing, inflated stock prices, a little froth in housing. But that’s not a labor policy. Companies use cheap money for buybacks, M&A, and offshore builds — not hiring on Main Street. The already-rich surf that tide. Wage earners? They get higher rents, higher food, and stagnant paychecks.

      Loan proceeds ? income — the sovereign loophole.
      This is the deeper problem. At the household level, when you refinance a house and pull cash, it’s not taxable. At the sovereign level, governments treat debt rollovers and reclassifications the same way — new liquidity with no “tax event.” That logic is now being floated in crypto-sovereign schemes: wrap obligations in a digital hybrid and call the proceeds “liquidity,” not income. It’s balance-sheet alchemy, not wealth creation.

      Theft by conversion, dilution, and the public.
      Legally, theft by conversion means taking property handed over in trust and repurposing it for yourself. That’s what a blended government crypto scheme does with citizens’ money. Add in dilution — issuing more units so each dollar is worth less — and you’ve got a system where savings erode while policymakers claim modernization. From the citizen’s seat, that’s inflation in a digital wrapper.

      Consumers get squeezed twice.
      On one side, they carry revolving debt at 22-25% APRs that don’t drop when the Fed cuts. On the other, their purchasing power erodes as monetary games debase the unit of account. The result isn’t relief, it’s erosion. Lower rates may stabilize bond auctions, but they don’t fill grocery carts.

      So yes, by all means clap when debt service costs ease at the Treasury. But let’s not pretend that’s a rising tide lifting all boats. For the majority of households, the tide looks more like a rip current: asset inflation out of reach, credit card APRs unmoved, and jobs nowhere to be seen.

      That’s why I keep saying: Fed cuts are freebies for the already-too-rich class. For everyone else, the linkage between short-term rates and day-to-day economic survival is weak to nonexistent. Until we see policy that links money supply to wage creation — not just asset reflation — the real economy stays at sea.

      Write when the “interest savings” show up on a Visa bill,

      • If the criminal elite in DC “can roll paper at 4% instead of 5 %”..

        They will automatically SPEND MOAR to fill the Gap, as all Gaps must be filled..dont ya know?

        We are just Numbers to them in DC – even thats a stretch, but its just Numbers .

        They dont give a shit about Ure feelings, Ure problems or Pains. The only thing they care about is MONEY-their money .
        They would not be in that line of work if not for MO MONAY! Money Money Money..

        Mission complete – we have completely warped Ure Values, Ure Morals , Ure Judgement, everything has been “WASHED”. Everything you hear on TV news – scripted, everything read in News – scripted.
        You hear anything about ET ? Space ships ? Anything about whats under Skinwalker and Blind Frog ranches in Udaho? Layers/Levels under A51, Layers and Levels under Giza Plateau?

        We have all been denied our DESTINIES – and my Ka and Ba are weary from all the bullshit lo these hundreds and thousands of years.

      • The Titanic (Housing Market) just hit the iceberg?
        ‘The FHA mortgage program is administered under HUD (Housing and Urban Development), and the delinquency rate keeps rising. It is now up to 12% of all mortgages in the program. This could be a “subprime 2.0” according to the Wall Street Journal, with the COVID-era loss mitigation programs ending on September 30th. Could we see a big spike in foreclosures after this point?
        Reventure Consulting
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo48Fqjt8Pg

      • Fed rates follow the market rates; the Fed follows, it doesn’t lead. I would put a little different spin on TEF’s latest comments. If there isn’t a significant equity market contraction pushing large sums of money into the Fed money markets, and soon, then the cut in rates will be short lived.

        • One other possible source of cash to push Fed funds rates lower would be a major crypto meltdown. Does Jerome know somedink that BCN doesn’t?

      • George : agreed lower Fed rates aren’t some magic wand to help the masses. Those not paying Federal taxes wouldn’t care because, as you note, lower rates don’t hit multiples of day-to-day expenses. But, it’s not this day we need to prepare for. It’s what comes all too soon, where we simply can’t afford the interest (while retiring zero principal). If you pay taxes you pay for interest cost. Charts depicting debt are awful but those showing interest costs going parabolic aren’t affordable. Neither the Buck or Ten year Treasury show lower rates here are problematic. Two more cuts are baked in the cake to close 2025. E

  6. Part of the discussion just before the weekend was about the upcoming Medicare cuts. Talked to my Health Insurance Agent over the weekend and as he put it BIG CUTS coming to all of the Advantage Plans (I am on one). He is a multi company Health Agents and handles ALL the providers in my state and he told me that one of his companies is already planning on sending out 30,000 letters on Oct 1 CANCELLING EVERYBODY in their main Advantage Plans!!

    He is still going through the seminars on what each company’s new plans will have for the new plan year but he advised me that if I had “optional work” to be done that is currently covered (hearing aids /cataract surgery /etc) I should GET IT DONE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR since it may not be fully covered, or covered at all for some stuff, come January 1.

    He told me ALL Advantage Plans WILL be cutting back both what they cover and increasing the co-pays on what they do cover (he thinks BIG increases in the drug co-pays or eliminating some drug coverage period is in the works for EVERY company)

    Just a heads up … talk to your own health insurance agent (hopefully they are a multi company agent so can compare the different plans in your area with you). Not wanting to start a flame war here.

    • You will be able eto play the online version October 16 eto Dec. 7 – we can hardly wait for the Steam Versioon of Retirement roulette to roll.
      4K por que?

    • I highly recommend getting your cataract surgery done as soon as you possibly can schedule it. It is an eight minute surgery for each eye that restores your vision. I have had both eyes done three years ago with no problems. Before that, I had experienced a tear in my macula that became a critical issue, which was resolved with surgery and an uncomfortable but short post surgery. Get them done.

    • Stephen2 : I had a brief chat about another item with my agent and, it being inside baseball, he will give me an early warning if mongo rate increases are inbound (he represents more than a few of my former clients). It’s equally possible rates will rise / insureds will be cancelled, if the Carrier Co. is multi line, exposed to P&C losses. Some carriers are on the brink. In any event, most plans are state specific. So, your MMV. Egor

  7. Yo Trader G,

    Got Ure trading glasses on ?

    Check this scheisse out.. Gold to Silver ratio is…well lets see, Gold At $3735 and Silver is at $43.82 SPOT Bid. Andzo we divide 3735 by 43.82 and the we get 85 to1 . Got it ? Dont forget, gonna need it for next leg.

    Here we go homegamerz – BCP insanity at work (you get to observe and comment) I have been selling Gold Miner “Longs” (Options) and Buying Silver Miners (Options) “Longs” today. Nailing the ratio exactly is dam near impossible, but its close enough for govmint work.

    Think Gold gonna be a lil tuckered out soonly, so unless Gold has some Blu Chews to “Chew it and DO It!” again, me thinks its best to change “Horses” in here now.
    Slim be the pickens though, PAAS, AG, CDE and of course the King of Silver – Wheaton Precious Metals, used to be Wheaton Silver, and before that it was part of Nemont.
    There are some Silver penny stocks – of which I might have several outsized positions in..following the Great Eric Sprott on this one..symbol starts with SL and ends RF and is 5 letters long..hint hint. Small risk- huge reward..or lose it all- so keep it small. NOT ADVICE,ever .
    Also Sterling and Coin Silver items on Invaluable auction site aggregator are priced to Spot perfection nowadays – aint no picking off numbskulls anymore – full price for Phyz..plus bidders premium and shipping costs.

    So thats it in nut shell, Hickory Nuts, as they make the best Nut Milk. Ahh but I digress agai..Gold =Sold, Silver =Stack em HIGH, and let em FLY.

    • God I love your occasional “navy swin school san diego” lingo. For those who don’t roll logs in pacific surf? Why spec ops / military types might use them

      Circulation and oxygenation: Sildenafil dilates blood vessels, which can improve peripheral blood flow and oxygen delivery. There’s anecdotal use in high-altitude operations (helps mitigate pulmonary hypertension from altitude exposure).

      Performance edge: Some soldiers use it not for sexual function, but to get better vascular response under load — higher endurance, better oxygenation in hypoxic environments.

      Humor & morale: The “blue chew” nickname stuck because they’re blue pills, and jokes about side effects are part of military barracks culture.

      Risks and caveats

      Not officially sanctioned as a “performance enhancer” in the field, though military doctors sometimes prescribe for altitude deployments.

      Can drop blood pressure, especially if combined with other meds.

      Not a substitute for proper acclimatization or oxygen equipment at altitude.

      So in short: “blue chews” are Viagra-class meds, jokingly referenced in the SOF community. Officially, they’re for ED or pulmonary hypertension, but unofficially they’ve been used in the field to help with blood flow, high altitude, and stamina. And when a bad (or good) weekend and a hangover? Gaterade and blue cheers and a hoo-rah bubba. Git away from that bell…

  8. looks like another buy the dip Monday … or does the day really matter ….. got the sheep conditioned, keep running it up boys/girls …… truly amazing … good luck all

  9. With all this rapture talk out there, a back of the hand calculation of adding 1260 days to Andy’s October 30, 2025 date brings us 1 day away from the day date that Apophis flies by on April 13, 2029.

  10. Got back late last night from the Seattle area [ really ‘dislike’ the Seattle area now – cesspool and horrible traffic..,] we were looking at a Roberts’ designed 48DS. [ sloop rigged sail boat ] I was very impressed with the room and storage capabilities, layout [ huge aft cabin masters’ suite.] Navigation Station. Lots of great ‘points’ for me. All negative points on the recent survey have been addressed and upgraded.., all but the chain locker. Brand new sails., but the winches need to be upgraded to a much larger size., and virtually no battery bank. But, it is all very do-able with a well padded debit card and a few Krugerrand’s. Known as a very seaworthy design., easily handled by two.
    Bigger boat then I was considering., but it was impressive. .., however –
    I did discover that “The Mrs” is not entirely sold. ., and I am not going to talk her into it. That’s not the way it works. She raised a few solid items that makes her seriously hesitate in life aboard a sailboat. And I can not ‘fix’ any of them. They’re her problems with that life style [ her grand son, for one.] And I will not work my magic in convincing her. I can only help out in answering her doubts and questions.
    Talking her into it., then discovering she can’t handle long ocean passages – or rough weather.., would be a horrible mistake., and not fair to her.
    So.., I believe that dream., that idea is ‘on- hold’. For now. [ .., damn ! ]
    * * *
    Found out this morning that a very nice, small cabin will be coming up for sale in Stehekin. Stehekin is a small town, of about 80 people, at the head waters of Lake Chelan. The only way in, is by the daily ferry, or float plane. There is a Forest Service Station., and a couple of small tourist-purposed cabin-like resorts. One of the very last One-Room School Houses in the country. No roads to speak of, nor any street lights., or, grocery stores.., pretty isolated. [ You take a day, or two and come down to Chelan for groceries., or place an Order at the local Safeway and have them shipped-up the next day by ferry.] My kind of place. There is a great bakery / coffee shop / lunch restaurant – in a log house., with fresh daily bread and goodies. No cell service.., most people operate their tech off of satellites. [ Heavy snow-loads in the Winter.]
    Not for sale as yet – but will bring it up to “The Mrs” in a day or two. [ I know the owner.]
    Ohh.., and the cabin has a forty-seven foot radio tower out back. Nice and convenient.

    Not too sure what we are going to do.., if anything ! May just hunker-down., revamp a few things, prioritize a few others [ sounds boring ] and prepare for the worst-case.

    “Stay Frosty !”
    [ Yes., damn it.., I do know where the saying comes from. I first heard it in Vietnam from a Marine Force Recon sergeant. Made ‘civilian-popular’ from the Aliens movie., been one of my quips and ‘goodbyes’ for decades.]

    • The Lake Chelan House sounds dandy (as does boat but that may be out) … only question I personally would have is how hard is it to get to medical care if the world doesn’t crash and something serious suddenly pops up? Float plane to your personal dock, or to a dock just down the road?

      With the water of the lake so deep I doubt it freezes over solid in the winter but surface ice near the shore could impact boats getting in and out of docks (yep even happens on Lake Superior though out on the lake itself it is rare for there to be much ice cover). Does the ferry run year round? How is the ferry financed? (I assume some sort of govt subsidy – govt crisis maybe no ferry?)

      Good luck with you decision wrt your living situation

    • If there are no deliveries to the island, you will have to get a drop box onshore which will accept deliveries from multiple services. A UPS mailbox would be a candidate. The have street addresses on the boxes, which can be useful.

  11. Clif High this morning… endeavor to survive 2025… keep on keepin’ on. The motto of the Great Round the World Un-race.

    Which major city will it ‘park’ over and bring darkness for three days?

    Stiks

    • Not happening this year.

      Cliff has certainly put himself on the edge of the thinking person’s universe with his writings and videos about our out of solar system visitor.

      For 2025 and 2026 there are other more pressing reasons why one should be concerned than out of solar system visitors showing up.

  12. time man of the year could be steve peutz . or the loud fella down under . sheetcoin the new bond , constant juice qe cracks 111k. lets see what happens

  13. OpenAI just received a $100 Billion dollar infusion from Nvidia.

    The largest A.I. deal on record – for OpenAI infrastructure project.

    One Hundred Billion.

    Wonder what Musk though when he heard that news ?

    …, wow !

  14. A magnitude 4.3 earthquake struck near Berkeley and Oakland, California, just before 3 a.m. on Monday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

    Just strong enough for everyone to feel it.

    • Locally, that would be a…”Did you feel something?” kind of question. In 2018 I rode my bucking office chair thru a 6.9…. for 40 seconds of time-stretched-eternity.

    • Waiting for the New Madrid to wake up, hopefully it happens after my time has expired LOL.

      The 2011 EQ that hit the East Coast (about 90 miles SW of Washington DC was only a 5.8 … but WOW it rattled things pretty good 350 miles away (I had an appointment in Dayton OH that morning and ALL the tall buildings there had to evacuate via stairwells and most were then closed for 2 to3 days – ditto for other midwest cities I seem to recall) Tall building elevators all had to be inspected for damage as did some steel beams in our version of skyscrapers before they could be opened back up for public use.

      A major New Madrid EQ will create chaos all over the midwest. When the New Madrid fault broke in 1811/1812 (4 times) it was so powerful it rang church bells in Boston Mass!! “IF” is happens again nearby St Louis with it’s old brick buildings will be devastated for sure but other cities in the Midwest may suffer serious damage too.

      Our actual real risks here involve Tornados vs the slight chance of an EQ since Tornados here do occur regularly and can be quite large and very powerful. See serious damage every year from SEVERAL that have hit closeby sometime during the year.

Comments are closed.