Can Bitcoin Be Saved? News-Noise and Strategic Christmas

TL;DR: Bitcoin busted below $90,000 overnight. Japan market dropped more than 3 percent.  And when we start getting current US Financial reports again?  Well, anyone’s guess.  Still, holiday rallies seem possible but Christmast this year will be more strategic than warm & fuzzy.

Today’s Setup

Is that coffee or Panic! we’re smelling this morning? It’s one of those mornings where the tape looks down – but calm in the sense of “orderly” – on the surface.  To us, it looks like the hull has been breached.  See, the Nikkei plunged more than 3 percent overnight — a move big enough that, in quieter years, it would have been the headline everywhere. Today it barely earns a shrug with most folks. That’s how you know we’re already deep in the danger zone: when real stress becomes background noise.

Meanwhile, political theater continues its off-Broadway run. Rotunda Theater is rerunning the Epstein disclosure like we don’t know virtually everyone is tainted, already.

This kabuki performance tries to look like accountability while ensuring nothing structural actually changes. But the circus isn’t the real problem. The real problem is Accounting.  Specifically, the compounding — the slow, relentless piling-up of issues that don’t resolve, don’t de-escalate, don’t get cleaned up. They just… stack.

Tom Bilyeu’s Impact Theory did a piece Monday that’s worth your time. Because he lays out why America’s screwed: BOTH political parties have weaponized America’s budget to support their parties and buy (imported) voters.  It also explained why Elon Musk threw up his hands…

Which…vastly simplified (both sides crooked, addicted to spending more than we bring in from taxes) is why happy-endings are over on the Fiction Shelf.

When government talks about the Debt in the $40-trillion range, even that is a lie.  because it doesn’t include interest that we can’t walk away from.  (Feel like gambling a world war, buddy? People don’t like getting stiffed…)  But, let’s pretend for a minute.

The U.S. is sitting north of $38 trillion in combined obligations — every year rolling over more interest at higher rates, every quarter borrowing more to stand still. It’s the fiscal version of pulling back on the yoke when the stall horn’s already blaring. Add in the global military liabilities — Ukraine grinding into a power vacuum war, the Middle East simmering with Iran at the edge of open confrontation, and Asia one bad decision away from a shooting calendar — and the load gets heavier still.

Dive, Dive!

This morning feels like one of those classic World War II submarine scenes. We’re already at crush depth, well below what the hull was ever engineered to handle. You can hear the groans — in markets, in politics, in the economic numbers no one wants to talk about. What you can’t hear is the one thing that matters: whether the next little depth charge — a market wobble, a geopolitical misread, a liquidity snag — is the one that buckles the bulkheads.

That’s the backdrop as Bitcoin slipped under $90K.  Not a headline — a tell. (You don’t have a Doc Holiday double-barrel Derringer, for this game.)

Today we go hard. Asking the real question: Can BTC be saved in a world where everything else is creaking at the seams?

When an asset built on computational confidence shows stress at the same time the real economy is creaking, that’s not correlation — that’s a stress test.

The Computing Future of Bitcoin

Before we get into price squiggles and Elliott Wave machinery, let’s do computational fundamentals. This is why I never owned a wallet and called it all a con:

Is Bitcoin built to survive the next computational epoch at all? Beneath the daily price drama is a deeper technical threat lurking just offstage. Three forces — (1) quantum computing, (2)massive AI inference farms, and (3) increasingly omnivorous government monitoring — are converging on a collision course with the original assumptions baked into the Bitcoin design. Add in the escalating overhead of running a blockchain whose mass increases forever, set to run head-on into AI power demands – and you can sketch a very uncomfortable path forward.

Threat 1

The first threat is quantum computing. Bitcoin depends on elliptic curve signatures and hash functions that were considered “computationally infeasible to break” when Satoshi-era hardware was still wandering around in diapers.

That was fine when the biggest threat was a room full of GPUs. But the next decade will not look like the last one. Quantum advantage — even if only partial — breaks the math-first security model.

A sufficiently strong quantum machine doesn’t attack the blockchain itself; it goes after the keys. Once keys can be solved or back-solved faster than new blocks can be validated, the system fails the way old bank vaults fail: slowly at first, and then all at once. Bitcoin maximalists love to hand-wave that “we’ll upgrade the protocol.” Sure. But upgrading a globally distributed system where millions of holders don’t even know what a private key is, and where billions in value sit in cold wallets that will never be patched, is not a weekend job.

Threat 2

The second threat is mass-scale AI compute, which is already running hotter than the ASIC farms of Bitcoin’s first decade.

Bitcoin’s security rests on the assumption that no single actor can provide enough raw computation to rewrite or dominate the chain. That assumption breaks down when AI training clusters, running thousands of GPUs per rack with terawatt appetites, get pointed at the same problem.

Mining difficulty climbs, but the economics don’t climb with it. AI doesn’t care about energy costs. Bitcoin does. An AI-driven mining regime centralizes power even more dramatically than ASIC consolidation ever did. Meanwhile, AI tools become so efficient at blockchain analysis that anonymity — already fragile — evaporates. Every hop, every wallet, every pattern sits naked in front of the machine.

Threat 3

Then comes the government angle, and here’s where the story gets truly existential. No government needs to “ban Bitcoin” to neuter it.

All they need to do is make on-ramps and off-ramps fully transparent, require transactional reporting, fold crypto transfers into AML frameworks, and put the big miners under the same rules as power utilities.  Set having a Developer in Chief with delusions of his own money (not just that Treasury coin) in the wings.

The dream of a stateless currency dies not with a crackdown, but with compliance.

Once the blockchain is mapped — and AI mapping under a regulatory umbrella will make it trivial — the “freedom layer” disappears. What remains is a slower, more expensive Venmo with a PR department.

Need Another?

And finally there is the internal problem: Bitcoin’s own mass. A blockchain that grows forever is a blockchain that costs more and more to operate. The larger it gets, the fewer participants can afford to run a full node. The fewer full nodes there are, the more the system centralizes. The more centralized it becomes, the easier it is for quantum actors, AI clusters, and government enforcers to dominate it. This is not conspiracy theory; it’s systems design. Weight is destiny. Bitcoin’s weight is starting to work against it.

So yes — Bitcoin can bounce, and yes — there are bullish cycles left in it. But the deeper question isn’t price. It’s architecture. Bitcoin was engineered for a world that no longer exists. We are entering an era where computation itself has mutated. When the tools used to “secure the future of money” become the exact tools that can unmake it, the debate shifts from market optimism to engineering fatalism.

That’s the technical backdrop.

Now let’s look at the chart. If you don’t know what Elliott Waves are, and how they evolve, click thee over to the Wiki and read here.  Then come back for the fun.

The long-term Elliott structure is clear:  BTC had a smoking Wave 1 up.  Then, it came down – a normal Wave 2.  Now we MAY be past the top of Wave 3.  Which – if there were a pool game would be where we’d have to “call the pocket.”  We don’t do advice, of course, but in a lot (not ALL) Elliott formations, the top of Wave 1 is usually a support zone.  See how halfway up Wave 3, the top of Wave 1 acted as overhead resistance for a while?

Takeaways:

  1. Early U.S. market futures were down.  (Cloudflare has been sketchy on a few sites today like FinViz earlier)
  2. Europe is down, on average 1.2 to 1.3 percent (early)
  3. This is Tuesday – so “turnaround Tuesday” may appear.
  4. Holiday rallies are common, too – turkey is for the table, not the Street.
  5. We still aren’t convinced to change our BTC assessment of  2010. Hard pass.
  6. bad as it all seems, it’s only a ripple compared to Peoplenomics tomorrow. 60+ pages worth.

You own your own life, your own outcomes, and can engineer them any old way you want.  We just happen to be old school.  Calories and farmland, decent rainfall, and some dirt-scratching tools? Yeah they’re work. But they are honest.

Meanwhile, the turnaround fuel for the Wave 4 bottom is in sight: Fed’s Waller Backs Rate Cut In December Amid Weakening Labor Market: ‘Not Worried About Inflation Accelerating’.  More Money = higher prices, right?

News Noise

Walk with me now.  Bilyeu’s got it right – both parties have gone rogue.  What’s a poor guy supposed to do?

Spend and Pretend, brothers and sisters. Tax without facts. Agenda to the end’a….

Appears to us that Epstein fallout is brolly just beginning: ‘Deeply ashamed’: Former US Treasury chief steps back from public roles after Epstein emails surface. Just in case, we have “the cynical newsman theme” song cued up on YT here.

Is someone going Kaczynski on us? Donald Trump threatens to bomb Mexico and Colombia and says ‘I’d be proud’.

“Jumpin Jack Flash” is a what, what, what? LNG Exports Will Drive Explosion in U.S. Natural Gas Consumption | OilPrice.com

Why we call ’em “kneelers” – people think I am too hard on the Brits.  Check this out: Britain’s Speech Gulag Exposed: 10,000 Arrested Last Year For Social Media Posts.

How about overbown and paranoid? Study Debunks Major Myth: AI’s Energy Usage Is Significantly Less Than Feared. And that’s before central cooling gets applied…

Next, a little something for “jets fans” Ukraine to buy 100 French fighter jets to boost defenses as Russia continues attacks, seizes more ground.

Did they say “Thanks for all the fish?“ Scientists hail breakthrough in decoding whale communication.

Also in SciTechDai8ly (like you didn’t learn from COVID-19 days): Low Vitamin D Levels Strongly Linked to Depression.  So are major market declines and political bullshit but that’s somewhere else…

Around the Ranch: StratMas (Strategic Christmas)

“Anything you want to Christmas dear?”

“No…how about you?”

I had to stop and think about it: No debt, everything free and clear, good health, 20+ ham radio HF stations to set up on whims, 30-acres for antennas, a working tractor and the ex-bunny wife…

“Maybe an 85 inch TV for the living room…eyes are in slow decline….”   But that was about it. I’m a blessed tool slut with capacity to work in any material you name, though I suppose I could beef up on aluminum and titanium welding supplies…

It got me to thinking that Christmas, at least for people past the bang-around phase of life, ought to run on the same rules as strategic planning. Not the Hallmark version with bows and cocoa, but the adult version: assets, liabilities, mission clarity, and resource allocation. Most folks get tangled up in the “what do you want?” question because they’ve never done the strategic step of asking “what problem am I actually trying to solve?” If your mission is comfort, buy comfort. If your mission is resilience, buy tools or beans. If your mission is joy, buy experiences. But buying random plastic crap because the calendar says so? That’s not gifting — that’s panic spending dressed up as tradition. The smartest Christmas isn’t about the presents under the tree; it’s about aligning resources with the life you’re actually building. In other words: treat Christmas like a one-day fiscal year — because if you don’t plan it like a CEO, the season will plan you like a mark.

Since we all have the opportunity to “retool ourselves” every morning into the “new and improved us” for each day, what to I need to realize that better me should be the question.

Care to bet on how many people will begin planning their seasonal spending of that perspective?  If you answer “Lots of ’em” then check which planet you’re on.

Two gifts we endorse – both being strategic: My book Mind Amplifiers and a Peoplenomics.com subscription..  I happen to know the author….he’s a genius level fellow, or so he says.

Christmas Cookies

Flashbacks to my Youth (long, a frickin go) as the holidays loom.  See, my late Danish grandmother lives with us growing up.  Having come to America on the last westbound run of the Lusitania, she’d been a cook for one of the minor royal families in Odense.  And just before Thanksgiving, the cookies would start appearing.

Klejner (also spelled klejner, kleiner, or klejne) is one of Denmark’s oldest traditional Christmas cookies, with roots reaching back to medieval Scandinavia. The name comes from the old Germanic word for “small” or “delicate,” and the cookie itself is a twisted strip of dough — a symbolic “knot” meant to bring luck and protect the home during the dark winter months. Originally fried in pork fat or clarified butter, klejner were prized because they kept well through December’s long nights and could be made in large batches before the holiday feasts. By the 1700s they were firmly embedded in Danish yuletide customs, often made during kagebagning (communal baking days) and served with hot gløgg. Every region developed its own variation: some crisp and dry, others soft and lemon-scented, but the iconic twist — the “little knot of Christmas” — has remained unchanged for centuries.

What triggered the flashback?  Too much Chinese food last night with friends?  No… it was this: People are trying to figure out why Danish Christmas cookies are made in India and it’s started a new propaganda war | Not the Bee.

Off to solve another one of the greatest mysteries:  Why do cookies (like the plate of choc chips from our dinner couple) never last in the freezer?  I can put two dozen in the freezer today and by, oh, Saturday or so, all gone! Seriously odd woo-woo in the kitchen here.  All started about the time a dish ran away with the spoon.  Hmm…

Ahead/ Incoming:

Fed Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization due shortly.  And tomorrow is a Bank Reserve Settlement Day – could fuel an afternoon turn-around, but that’s not advice.  Just windage to crank in…

How’s about we saddle up as World Observers and climb back on the Earth Ride Adventure for another one?

Write when you get it,

George@Ure.net

Visit the Visitor Center, read back issues, or just post a comment. Not enough?  Try our Barber Shop Reads,  something worth doing over the holidays.  It’s be the write thing.

72 thoughts on “Can Bitcoin Be Saved? News-Noise and Strategic Christmas”

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  1. What chu talkin bout, Elmer

    FUDdely rides again ! What is it official fear mongers day today?

    The BTC community has always LEAD the way -operative word hear is LEAD.

    Gotz to be Smart, have strong Intellect to engage BTC.

    No Brains ? No BTC .

  2. One of the very first things taught in crypto training is that encryption only buys a short time before it’s broken. I still remember 4 digit passwords.
    Now? With confirmation texts, emails, voice, picture confirmation/verification it’s only a matter of time till those get broken and yet another security layer is imposed. Will have to revert back to handwritten letters and face to face conversations.

    • Phil,

      I’m noticing more websites are requesting me to setup a so-called passkey:

      “Log in using your face, fingerprint, or device passcode/PIN ”

      In past posts I mentioned browsers now have profile buttons – the “sign-in” button began showing in FF at the end of October/25.

      The Internet ID will be here soon. Or, don’t participate of course.

    • O/T.

      ” Will have to revert back to handwritten letters and face to face conversations.”

      The Post Office is the only method of communication still protected by the Constitutions. All other methods can be skimmed using Little Bush’s 3rd part data collection gimmicks.

      • Out of Work Steve
        November 18, 2025 at 13:28
        ________________
        Steve,
        Having some problems here with the postal delivery. The mailman keeps delivering mail to my box that is addressed correctly to a neighbor blocks away. Happens multi-times. The postman always looks a bit sloppy though he is dressed correctly. I took the mail to the correct address and hand delivered it to it.
        This makes me wonder where he is delivering MY mail. I’ve seen him deliver and he seems happy. Smiles a lot. I kinda wonder if he is high or just illiterate. Spoke to my next door neighbor as I delivered his letter to him also. I asked if he would contribute to a fund to go to Sam’s Club and buy the postman some reader glasses so maybe eliminate or confirm what his problem is. Looks about 35-40 years old but may just be stupid or is secretly some sort of anti-government activist trying to hassle us. You can choose to trust USPS but if they hire these dopes you’ll be sorry later when you don’t receive some important mail. These days they hire from the bottom of the barrel.

      • Dont be a cracker.

        I disagree.

        It is much easier to KNOW, if one has prior knowledge of, shall we say, how things work…

  3. So funny George about the missing cookies. My woman’s group sells deserts at the local Octoberfest each year. I make 3 or 4 dozen cookies ahead of time and freeze them. The gingersnaps always disappear before the event.

    • Funny, nobody touches my Canna Cookies in the freezer out in garage, obviously Kids moved out years ago..

      Gotta eat em up before the THC in them degrades too much, uhn I mean before the CBD/N degrade too much.

      Canna Cookie and small glass oat milk with some uncle cliffs Puresleep..Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
      * very little dream recall if any with this protocol

        • Yes.trying to decide what kind of wine I want to make.. I have to do buffalo berry first that’s the wife’s favorite one..I baking bread tomorrow morning..I have to grind more flour.. my friend from ukraine was craving a dish from there and I had the knowledge so I made it .. now I have to try it..amazing the grain recipes from there..I gave a koji starter to one of the RN’s so they can try it..I get a day to dinner I will start some soy sauce ..better than the imitation..the kids at the elevator gave me the grain for it..the only request was a bottle of good soy sauce when its done.. cheap enough.. trade for the product..

    • lol lol…yup… I’m the secret snacker here..
      tip..quart of heavy cream it ten bucks but heck you use so much of it.. and a quart of milk a buck something..
      a pound of butter four dollars..
      1 stick of unsalted butter ( I use salted)
      1 quart whole milk
      immersion blender and a bowl
      warm the stick of butter in a bowl pour in the milk while blending it..your just returning the milk fat.. pour back into the jug and refrigerated.. it’s like adding eggs to milk just don’t let the butter stiffen up..
      save eight dollars

      • Guess I shouldnt but I just cant help myself – Hard Candies like good ole days can be had at Hercules Candies – see em on Youtube. Just got a Candy Canes delivery – old school thick ass Candy Canes..hard to break off pieces.
        Blue Raspberry, Watermelon, and Peppermint candy canes, bag o super sour hard candies & some narly Cashew brittle..YUM! Plus you get to watch em make the stuff on YouTube as you enjoy Ure sweet treats.

        “Oh Schultzie…some Apple Strudel?”

    • Cookies should never be stored in a freezer. They’re the most important layer of the healthy food pyramid and should be eaten continuously throughout the day to maintain perfect health and strength.

      • I am not sure if its true..but.. the act of chewing cookies burns so many calories and if you drink ice water the calorie to warm the water up..theoretically helps you lose weight..I keep telling my wife that and she just laughs..its my diet and I’m gonna stick to it..lol

        • When I was in college, the frat-boys insisted that was true for cold beer.

          The joke was in the math. It takes calories to warm the cold water… but your beer (and food) has Calories. It would be obvious if it was written out as “kcal” or “kilo-calories” instead of “Calories”.

    • lol lol . we use so much cream here it’s easier to make and cheaper.if your going to make cottage cheese to..make up the cream and then culture it..the same with culturing buttermilk or sour cream…I just use the bread proofer but you can use a yogurt maker..I have a couple yogurt makers..four sour cream add milk fat back into the milk.. buttermilk I just use whole milk..

  4. The real problem with bitcoin is that has been derivated to death; every which way imaginable and then some – you can be assured every thing is now tied to it. Fiat currencies, stock markets, metals, commodity’s and prolly even AI promises. When the rip chord gets pulled everything will go with it. Even AI chatterbox’s don’t have a real clue and will never scale the wall of honesty. It is what it creators tell it to be – a glorified search engine that will never become sentient. I’m shocked to learn Epstein compromised everyone – the stories we are being fed are still based on pedophiles who abused are prolly killed minors. I don’t care that Larry summers tried to pick up a Chinese chick. Where are the photos and videos of the pedophiles that is all that matters. The rest can be sorted out later.

      • What’s REALLY IMPORTANT is that the Kardashians are helping Britney since apparently she is again in one of her never ending Mental Health crises.

        Headline news,, even more important than Epstein, for the younger generation that worked hard to “FREE BRITNEY”.

        People need to stay focused on what is really important. GET WITH IT!!

    • the issue that’s scary .is bit coin is a digital tulip…..and in reality so are all the fuat currencies…not backed by anything tangible except some big buck billies flatulence..

    • I definitely care about the logic and mechanics of picking up a Chinese chick(of legal age)! What I find detestable is Larry Summers faking remorse when he really did want to pick up the girl and had strong opinions about womens’ IQ. Epstein was a resource, like a drug dealer. No need to apologize for knowing the resource. If Larry was truly dealing in minors, that’s a different story. Then it’s not about the resource, it’s about his own illegal actions.

  5. Bubble Bubble … Bubble Trouble

    Nvidia alone is valued by MORE than ALL the Bitcoin totaled together.

    Bitcoin is just a very Poor Cousin to the AI Tech World when it comes to World Class Bubbles! Look at all the secondary companies have been roped into the AI Bubble Universe:

    * Data Center companies;
    * Construction companies that build data centers;
    * Companies that make the cooling systems and backup diesel generation systems that EACH data center requires;
    * Electric Utilities that will supply power to all of the data centers … including the VAPOR WARE Data Centers (centers that will never be built)
    * All the various companies that supply the machines and materials needed to build all those new electricity power plants (mostly natural gas powered)
    * an the list goes on and on

    AI because of all of the related industries that are riding it’s coat tails on it’s nearly vertical climb the current bubble may be, and probably is, a bigger bubble than the 2000 Tech Bubble.

    Compared to the “AI Bubble” “Bitcoin” is just the proverbial Pimple On An Elephant … but they may all come down together

    • Electricity build out AI firms are planning (info related to my post above)

      15 Gigawatts of power requests were withdrawn in just my state in the last 90+- days.

      In just my state after our Public Utilities Commission in August ruled that firms building data centers would have to pay for the constructions costs for the grid to serve them and HAD TO SIGN TAKE OR PAY CONTRACTS (pay 85% for the requested power even if don’t use a single kilowatt) for the electricity they were requesting with **3RD PARTY GUARANTEES FROM NON RELATED very solvent PARTIES** (ie: Letter of Credit dynamics) ie: major banks or entities such as Chase, Bank of America, Lloyds of London, etc. …. 15 Gigawatts of power requests were withdrawn.

      15 Gigawatts of planned data centers just went POOF.

      To put that amount of power into perspective at the height of manufacturing in my rust belt state the entire state, including not just our myriad factories but all the households, small businesses, retail establishments etc. COMBINED did NOT USE THAT MUCH ELECTRICITY!

      (data centers yet to be completed or built consuming an additional 15 Gigawatts are still on the books wrt the electricity they are requesting which is equal to or more than the rest of the state, sans data centers, uses)

      Most people do NOT grasp how much money is being poured into the AI build out and how that is affecting the entire economy since they only look at the chip makers and the big data center operators such as Amazon /Microsoft /Alphabet /Meta.

      The bubble has reached it’s tenacles into lots of other areas of the economy too because of the size of the construction and hard manufacturing businesses surrounding the entire AI build out endeavor. (which will end once the AI infrastructure is finally built out .. or the bubble suddenly collapses and all those orders /construction finally stops)

      Trouble for the ENTIRE economy just ahead when the AI boom stops.

      • Scary spikes in leveraged stock buying (margin debt), a crash indicator, Elliot Wave Intl latest video:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fKV3yKEHB4

        Musk’s Grokipedia a big racist joke:
        https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/nov/17/grokipedia-elon-musk-far-right-racist
        ‘Entries in Elon Musk’s new online encyclopedia variously promote white nationalist talking points, praise neo-Nazis and other far-right figures, promote racist ideologies and white supremacist regimes, and attempt to revive concepts and approaches historically associated with scientific racism, a Guardian analysis has found.’

      • OKLO been treating me real fine, like almost as fine as a Frog hair split 3 ways, or in this case 2 ways..

        Also popped for POWL(Power) and LRCX (LAM Research) on data ctr build out coattails. Already taken prophets, and just riding em for brass rings now.

        NVDA is far and away best performer in all portfolio’s. So much so that cap gains have become problematic with that stock..huminnahumminna

      • Solar towers.. not the kind that they tried in the Mojave dessert though.. the real stuff not something someone of the menta!icy of the scientist that figgured..hey global warming we will fling mirrors in space and point the suns rays back to the sun.. oh my goodness..I shouldn’t have been taking a drink while thinking about that lol just spit it out alk over myself..and to think they actually pay these morons for that crap lol…

      • OK … I got curious about my state’s current electrical production usage and demand requests so I went out and looked. Keep in mind this is even after 15 Gigawatts of power requests for Data Centers were withdrawn because of the requirement of Data Centers to sign TAKE OR PAY contracts when they ask for future power that was instituted by our State Utilities Commission over the summer.

        Even after the withdrawal of 15 Gigawatts of power requests for Data Centers there is still 15 Gigawatts of power requests to the utilities still pending (I assume those Data Center builders are now willing to pay the money it takes to get a “Letter of Credit” style 3rd party guarantee for those still pending requests)

        Currently my state’s usage is running right at 17 Gigawatts of demand (averaged over a year) of which our CURRENT Data Centers are using 1.5 Gigawatts of. (July 2025 data). That means my entire state of about 11 million people with LOTS of industry, excluding Data Centers, is consuming 15.5 Gigawatts of electricity.

        IMO those 3rd parties providing the “Guarantees” under the now State Required “Take Or Pay” contracts had better be careful since I can’t see the demand for Data Centers really developing so as to require my state to actually DOUBLE it’s electricity generation capacity. (which would be enough electricity to double our population, sans Data Centers, to 22 million)

        15 Gigawatts of power requests for Data Centers have already been cancelled over the las 90 days. Will a LOT MORE cancellations show up in the near future?

        • Hmmm….. tough problem that. Mine bitcoins during any idle periods in data center power demand.

          I believe quite a few resourceful corps are doing just that.

  6. “This is why I never owned a wallet and called it all a con:”

    The Sting (1973)

    Henry Gondorff: You have to keep this con even after you take his money. He can’t know you took him.

  7. George,

    A different take on Bitcoin’s near term prospects:
    using GBTC, the ETF proxy for Bitcoin/USD and monthly fractal series starting from the Aug 2015 low …

    1st fractal series composed of two subseries: 20/22 = 41 months x
    20 mon 3/8/8/4 and 22 mon 5/12/7
    2nd fractal series 16 (3/8/7)/33 (7/17/11)/37 (11/27)m = 84 months 2x+

    Now in the window of Bitcoin 2nd fractal 2x-2.5x nonlinearity

    SPX 1982 13/32 of 32-33 years
    Now at near the end of yearly 2nd fractal 2x-2.5x nonlinearity

    SPX from 7 April 2025
    1st fractal 53 days (10/25/20 day) x
    2nd fractal starting 20/23 June 2025 : 105-106 days 2x now in the window of daily 2nd fractal nonlinearity
    (4 subfractals to peak valuation on 29 Oct)
    1. 29-30 days: 5-6/13/13
    2. 22 days: 5/11/8
    3. 29 days: 6/13/13
    4. 14 days: 3/7/6 days; (the 1st fractal subseries and all of these 4 subseries of the 2nd fractal follow self-assembly self-ordered fractal patterns)

    There are two possible (transient) Crash nadir dates:

    1. A 4-phase Crash fractal decay series starting on 28 Oct and ending 21 Nov: 3/7/7/2 of 5 days and

    2. A fractal self similarity pattern to the 12 August 1929 to 13 Nov 1929 daily fractal pattern: 5/11/(8) days; the (8) day 3rd Fractal includes the 3 Sept 1929 peak and a(conjoined) (8)/19/16/12 day crash 4 phase fractal decay pattern. Starting 10 Oct 2025 a possible self similarity is this: a 3/6/(4) day and conjoined (4)/10/8 of 8/1 of 6 day 4-phase fractal crash decay pattern ending with a transient nadir on 24 November 2025 with the peak valuation on 29 October 2025 contained in the 10 day 2nd fractal of this subseries.

  8. re: “The Circus”, 1928
    feat: Charlie Chaplin

    Madrid’s Palacio de la Zarzuela (Operetta Palace) danced into early 1990s Spanish commoner imaginations. There a now-exiled Spanish king allegedly undertook entertainment with a former Miss Spain turned ex-wife of a circus lion tamer. The latter’s professional filmography may have peaked in 1980 with “Some Decent Scoundrels”.

    Today the King of Spain welcomed the President of Ukraine for lunch at Palacio de la Zarzuela. Early msm reports do not specify if the visitor will take overnight lodging in Madrid. If so it might be expected for accomodation to be provided at El Pardo Palace. The edifice served as home to Dictator Franco following the Spanish Civil War.

    • Wow what a cowinky dink!

      Seems the King of Prussia was seen shopping at the Mall yesterday.. : D

  9. so some FED governor says the labour market is shattered and stalled . so we sell /short bonds and raise yield . aye ? only in america . gangsters . show us the nvidia lies hungy

    • Going to be Ure lucky day Lennster, when NVDA releases earnings.

      This is due the Face ripping rally that will ensue after the release, saving us all from having to look at Ure fugly mug anymore.

      ahahhahaahahahaahahahah

  10. the well hungy boss of the chip boyz , nvidia reckons hes making trillions . probably getting handouts like the yarpee musk from fard working american taxpayers . who set up Tesla ? the US government

    • defense intelligence satanists(DIA) – the sword swallowers and carpet munchers fighting for The Darkness.

      Mean as snakes, and just as lowly, crawling around in the fecal matterz.

  11. OK, Bitcoin is taking a beating. But why? While the explanations you put forth are certainly very good, there is always a more immediate reason, which is almost always- MARGIN CALLS. Somewhere out there in the financial back rooms, there are large, over-leveraged token holders under water on their credit line. Is the credit line for crypto, or something else ? I dunno. And until the Goldmans of the world finish liquidating their positions, I would not expect anything on CNBC. But we did hear one suspicious snippet: Michael Burry is talking an AI balloon bust. Leveraged AI bets eroding, maybe? Crypto and AI aficionados do tend to cluster.

    • Best investment on the street right now is the Hyperscalers’ Debt..all the usual too big suspects have paper out on street – getting bundled and offered for resale. Says here someone gonna blowup over all that DEBT. Afterwards – All of Us are going to be on the hook for the BAILOUTS. Altman and company are already putting the Bailout Idea out there so all of Us can used to the idea of tax payer financed bailouts for the tribe, AGAIN.

      Cyrpto and Ai do not cluster, Bitcoiners are ho-hum about recent price swings/action..BFD.

      BTC has always been and continue to be like LOVE –

      Rollercoaster of LOVE- https://youtu.be/nU9uiNM1KhM?

  12. Well George, you really stepped in it Matey. The topic of crypto seems to engender surprising passion. I know some very sensible reasonable people who are now holders. They have no idea _what_ they own, and some can barely discuss wallets vs parking tokens at semi-normal BDs. Very few people I know have dipped into “shit” coins, sorta defined by everything but BTC and ETH.

    These new contraptions are subject to unexpected consequences. Many possibilities were sussed out / many not. Ex : the notion that once main stream Brokers got in the game the world was an oyster. OK, it is but some are rancid. Typical BD setups want sophisticated investors. Most are in derivatives like ETFs, which provide both buying and selling power.

    For the record, from inside the bullpen (emphasis : bull) most of the juice is aimed at ETH (Ether) vs BTC. No time for detailed description of why, just know that’s the state of play. Everyone is transfixed by BTC 90k when … most of the “organized” mojo is watching ETH 3k (note we broke 3k to “print” 2,946.46 before the US “open” today).

    That ^ the never closing part, causes me angina so, despite keeping an open mind, today is the same as yesterday. Nope. Thos of you who are in the game entered with good intel (one hopes).

    From a market wide perspective, per prior postings, it’s my belief the crypto crowd was elbow deep in leverage. Many are inexperienced traders who really should be restricted to cash accounts but, none of my bidness. This summer lent a persistent “tell” in markets. Crypto rallies, creates more equity, which then flowed into *froth* in tech stocks. I did not play this so am looking for another tell.

    You better don a steel hat there WordSlinger. Sticks and stones. ~ E ~

    ps – must gløgg be hot then? Silly Scandinavians. Handwarmers?

  13. * and a rudder thing * nothing in my post ^ above, or any post ever, is advice … just nattering of an old trader, pondering the universe ~ E ~

  14. “What do you want for Christmas?” The old ‘ham slut’ George needs another rig! I still didn’t see an IC-7300 MKII on Santa’s list. But wait! There’s more to be had! How about a tiny ham rig that does everything but power? Battery QRP anyone?
    My Christmas present to myself:

    https://www.hfsignals.com/index.php/zbitx/

    Now for ordering the little toy, it seems I ran headlong into the Cloudfare internal server problems that affected my PayPal order, and also emails from ‘hfsignals’. Upon ordering, PayPal would not confirm, close, and return to merchant, with an obscure warning of ‘Hmmm something went wrong’. So I tried again…. And again. After three tries I got suspicious and checked my PayPal Email. Sure enough… there were THREE ORDERS. Crap! Then I received an email from ‘hfsignals’ asking me to confirm if I really wanted three units.? I tried to reply, but my email generated the ‘internal server’ error and I could not get the reply thru.

    Finally I composed a new email addressed to customer service at the domain and explained the problems. Never got a reply to that one, but soon my PayPal was confirming refunds on two of the purchases, so the message got thru. Thanks to the aware folks at hfsignals.com. What a stress-mess!

    CloudFlare… isn’t that what you see just as the EMP goes ‘poof’?

      • George,
        I caught the discussion on EMP’s and protection of equip. from them. Good stuff to do.
        If the EMP is from a nuclear detonation, which is not out of the question, a lot of the U.S. is going to have fallout in spades. I’m wondering if you have made any plans to protect yourselves from exposure to the radiological effects. If so, have you any info or recommendations for radioactivity survey meters besides the home made Kearny fallout meters.
        Since the world is rank with hatred of the U.S. by almost every 1st and 2nd world nation, and our big shots and theirs have plenty of multiple warhead nukes and really want to depopulate the planet, those meters and dosimeters may be hard to come by.
        This may be the way politicians get through the impossible to repay ‘national debt’ crisis. Less local people, less nations, less debts, less enemies. Looks to me like that scene is on the way. Wind drift will spread the fallout beyond the major target sites. Want to live?

        • Ed, ki4u.com is a good read. I have surplus Civil Defense tools (because they are absolutely, positively bulletproof) and also modern devices (smaller, lighter, more-accurate.) I also have my own radioactive, calibration standard because these toys (especially the old ones) are subject to drift. I also have a stock of carbon-zinc batteries, because the old devices were designed to work with them and don’t function properly using alkaline, lithium, or NiMh cells. Shane or Allen (at ki4u) might’ve found a way to make them work — I haven’t. Since many modern batteries are chipped (and chips may shit themselves from an electromagnetic pulse {or not, but why introduce a potential weak link?}), I’m not interested in messing with it as long as I can buy carbon-zinc batteries at Harbor Fright and Family Dollar.

          FWIW George (and a couple others here) have posted their survey meter and dosimeter purchases or suggestions. My one suggestion is to ABSOLUTELY spend the money for a NukAlert key fob (https://www.nukalert.com )

      • Probably good planning. MKII should be in full production and stocked by then. Maybe even a price reduction.

        But damn… look at all the stuff the ZbitX does! All modes, including digital, and an onboard logging system. All for under $200.

        • Damn You

          I wasn’t in the mood to buy any Ham Gear … DAMN YOU. Now you went and through a monkey wrench into my Christmas Shopping List.

          What I am going to do, just to make myself feel good, is to WAIT for you to get yours, test it out, and then tell us how bad the little thing is so I don’t have to buy it.

          I will forewarn you that any report other than it is a “Total Turd” means I am going to be hating myself before Christmas because I broke my year long promise to myself to NOT buy any Ham gear this year.

          I hereby transfer my burden of guilt onto YOUR shoulders!

        • It is time for you to face your Ham addiction. Long ago I admitted I have an addiction to novel, tiny ham radios. I just live with it now… guilt free. I’m betting you are unable to wait for my test report and will cave in to your addiction before Christmas. What better gift to self than something you really, really want? Well… I’ll be damned. I can handle it. I have a new toy to ease my pain. :-)

        • Sorry, Stephen — you’re donezo.

          HRO will run that rig with a $200-$300 rebate, before Christmas. When they do, your resolve will go -=poof=-

  15. I recognized the BTC opportunity when it was cents rather than tens of thousands of dollars each. I didn’t have time for it then and don’t now, but it seems that finding solvent derivatives that can short it might be a play for some.

  16. “vastly simplified (both sides crooked, addicted to spending ”

    About 1 year ago Republican constituents wanted to DOGE .gov workers. 3, 4 months later some chased Musky’s 3rd party after realizing they were schlonged by Don.

    About 1 week ago Republican constituents were bleeding for out of work .gov workers.

    Republicans stand for nothing! And that’s just the way it is, simplified.

    Here’s a goodie –

    “With less than six weeks before a key set of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies expire, congressional Republicans are scrambling to come up with a plan to address the pain of health care premiums skyrocketing for roughly 22 million Americans.”

    A different poster pointed out subsidies increase cost. And turns out Republicans are subsidy queens!

    • OowS : oh puhlezze, do you believe all this piffle or just want to stir the pot? Soon we will hear wailing about continuing _extra_ subsidies, over norm, installed to help people through the Pandemic. It’s over, right? Then why wouldn’t the _extra_ subsidy be over? The ACA scrambled our whole health system. I hope we can help needy while not ruining options for the rest of us.

      Egor

      ps – though it pained me at the time, I helped my sister sign up for the ACA due to her uninsured needs. I estimate she cost the system (ahem, us taxpayers) a quarter million before she paid $300. Bet she wasn’t the only I ne, hey?

  17. re: turnover on downs?
    feat: “Lost Americana”, 2025

    The “CBC” has issued a report lamenting that the music headliner for the 112th edition of The Grey Cup on Sunday was not Canadian. However perennial Canadian alternative band Our Lady Peace served up the “Kickoff Show”. Respecting a three down game, they delivered “Starseed”, “Clumsy”, and ended with “Sound the Alarm”.

    A Half Time headliner materialized in the form of American rapper mgk riding the charts with his 2025 album “Lost Americana”. He opened his set with “Starman”. One might have anticipated him closing out with “Orpheus” from his new album release. Orpheus is the mythical Greek music charmer who chased after and retrieved his wife from the Underworld. His relics were considered oracles. Instead on Sunday, mgk closed out with “Cliché”.

    • re: ruta graveolens
      feat: Februus, god of purifications

      Do cetaceans rue a day? One is to keep believing a Strategy of moving crypto between wallets is for security, and not a sale? Does the “So You Can!” bank on Park Avenue offer wallet-sized safety deposit boxes for collateral crypto? Widows and retirement funds holding strategic unsecured convertible notes, please line up at the ‘Lincoln Redemptions Desk’? (This is not investment advice.)

      Time to join DJ George for a ditty off the “Pennies from Heaven” movie soundtrack: “Let’s Face the Music and Dance”!

  18. I am please to see that the bearish barometer here is on full tilt. Thats actually a good thing.

    Regards,
    – The Wall Street specialists desk. lol.

    • Dont bite too hard HiH.

      Moochelle is still a Woman, even after that surgical procedure, Addadicktome was performed on her.

      Just because she can write her name in the Snow now, does not mean she is not a Woman..Sacred Feminine ? not so much at all.

    • “Michelle Obama Says She Won’t Run Because America “Ain’t Ready” For An America-hating Terrorist”

      –Fixed that for them.

  22. Gee George I wish there was a way to post on your yet to be written next post for we neanderthals cast down into the Antipodes. We’re actually on the leading edge of your future but to all American-centrics we are somehow behind the times?
    The Epstein file release is epic and yet here in your comments section (ok I’m female so you can diss my opinion) it’s all being parcelled up yet again as Republican-Democrat tit-for-tat. No wonder the rest of the world sees the USA for what it is – a psychotic toddler throwing a tantrum when faced with cold hard reality. It’s all about justice for the young girls and accountability. How lucky you all are to have been born into a world of white male primacy. A world perfectly formed for you to thrive and flourish. I doubt it will remain like that for much longer but hey – you were there at the peak, enjoy your swansong.
    Lots more to say but why would I bother?

    • Bark,bark, bark..

      Not Luck – hard work and perseverance. Could not have been done without strong ass Women supporting. See Mr Lyns’ post regards his way better half.

      Wife was daughter of domineering, nasty, narcists’ world renowned surgeon. Very little confidence, serious mental damage from lifetime growing up in that household. By the time our 2 kids were grown – she had GROWN into a DOOR (manager) at mutual fund giant VGD. Daughter is executive in major Pharma co. My Wife took care of ME, my Family, and worked jobs, then a career.

      That is some tough ass schiesse, I dont care who youse be.

      All this to say, real MEN support Up, the Females in our lives. I pounded confidence making statements in young Daughters hed evrynight after Reading time..Who is the prettiest and smartest Girl in the whole wide world? She learned to answer it LOUD AND PROUD, everytime.

      I am extremely confident in my GrandDaughter’s successful future, as she already knows how to Kick Ass while taking no names. In my world its all about the ART of a Thing, and big secret here..is how to avoid Negative Karma in “battle”..doing IT for the Art, not emotion/hatred.

      Its not all bad Winter, there are some that still practice the very ancient ways .. We know the secret, and not go astray.

      Sorry, not epic, REDACTED as that is what is taking sooo much time. Apparently tRUMP cant handle the truth.

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