Well, it is different, but not as much as you might think.
Rain’s coming down. Cold of the sort that makes your bones hurt (40F but 100 percent humidity) and in some places, they’d call the weather miserable.
The good news is? Well, you can’t build antennas, hunt deer, or catch fish in comfort goes the old saying. So, by rights, we should all get a hell of a lot done with what’s left of the weekend.
Oh, there is one difference between Adak, Alaska and the East Texas Piney Woods dressed up as Adak, Texas: In Adak north, this kind of weather is “summer.” Here, it’s damn near winter.
Sorry if the column is a little later than usual. I swear, I was waiting for crews to plow from the bedroom into the master bath.
“George, I don’t hear anything that sounds like a plow,” said wife Elaine. “Shh..go back to sleep.”
Strange times – when, even a spouse can be right once in a while.
News Compressor On:
While you were sleeping…
1. Bahrain: Iran Launches Another Drone Attack
Bahrain reported intercepting several Iranian aerial attacks Sunday after Tehran claimed to have launched six drones against a U.S. radar installation. This follows Friday’s intercepted attack and makes the latest incident a fresh escalation rather than merely another report of the earlier confrontation. Escalating. But, when isn’t it?
2. Saudi Arabia: Missiles Head Toward Riyadh
Saudi-led forces reported intercepting two Houthi ballistic missiles aimed toward Riyadh and three drones over the oil-rich Eastern Province. The attacks come after damage to Saudi Aramco facilities and renewed Saudi strikes in Yemen, widening the regional threat to energy infrastructure. Escalating. But when…..
3. Nuclear Diplomacy: A Three-Power Meeting Without a Deal
The White House says Trump intends to discuss nuclear-arms reductions with Putin and Xi in Shenzhen on Thursday, November 19, although the precise meeting format remains unsettled. Beijing is reluctant to enter trilateral arms-control negotiations, and Washington does not expect an immediate agreement. Diplomatic activity increasing; breakthrough unlikely.
4. Ukraine: Zelenskyy Rejects a New Security Bargain
Zelenskyy warned that a U.S.-floated European security framework could benefit Putin by weakening NATO, and rejected territorial concessions in exchange for alliance membership. Ukraine is pursuing prisoner exchanges and energy-security arrangements while insisting that European security decisions include Europeans. Negotiations strained. If the (majors) were serious, they would say something like “accept it, or we cut funding.” They didn’t, and won’t. Warons – if there is such a word.
Inside Pages
1. Yemen’s Strategic Strait.
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces withdrew from territory overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, leaving the Houthis in control of a strategically important coastal area. Shipping vulnerability increasing. At last…someone I could play chess with.
2. Oil Surplus Meets War Risk.
The International Energy Agency projects a fourth-quarter oil surplus as Gulf exports recover, despite continued disruption around Hormuz. Supply fundamentals easing; geopolitical risk persisting.
3. Microsoft Restores Service.
Microsoft said its global 365 outage was resolved after disruption across governments, hospitals, schools and businesses in more than 70 countries and territories. Restored; concentration risk exposed.
4. FAA Recovery.
Federal aviation officials expect U.S. airline schedules to normalize by Sunday evening after Friday’s nationwide ground stop, although aircraft and crew displacement may prolong individual cancellations. Recovering.
5. Wall Street’s AI Split.
The S&P 500 finished Friday lower while the Nasdaq lost more ground, with semiconductor weakness offsetting gains in other sectors; the broader market nevertheless gained for the week. Selective risk aversion continuing. Our “War at the 85-day moving average” hasn’t taken as long as Ukraine, but give it time.
6. ASEAN Opens in Manila. Southeast Asian leaders begin discussions Sunday on South China Sea disputes, Myanmar and regional security, ahead of Trump’s expected arrival Tuesday. Diplomatic coordination increasing. Nothing burger but a big show in the kitchen.
7. Canary Islands Migration Surge.
Spanish rescuers brought 1,488 migrants ashore from 14 boats Saturday, the islands’ highest one-day arrival total since 2020. Humanitarian pressure increasing. Wait! Is this a “canary” looking for a coal mine?
8. Gaza’s Fragile Ceasefire. Hospital officials reported two Palestinians killed in an Israeli drone strike in Jabaliya, while Israel said the targets were Hamas militants. Violence continuing. Waterfront condo sales continue slow.
9. COP31 Fossil-Fuel Deadlock. Turkey’s conference presidency is emphasizing implementation rather than pressing for new language on phasing out fossil fuels, while negotiations over adaptation financing continue. Progress contested.
Related: Climate Protests in Antalya. Thousands marched Saturday against environmental damage and fossil-fuel expansion during the climate summit. Public pressure increasing.
10. Washington’s Monument Dispute. A federal judge temporarily blocked work on Trump’s proposed monumental arch near Arlington, citing concerns raised by Virginia and Washington, DC. Legal resistance continuing. We don’t think it will happen – the left can keep anything in court for two years and after? Won’t matter.
Pathfinding Future
Forward-looking watch from Sunday morning, November 15. Probabilities are editorial judgments, not calibrated statistical forecasts.
Remember – T is the current time so T+24 is Monday and suchwise.
| Horizon | Trigger to monitor | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| T+24 | Fresh Bahrain or Saudi attack claims, verified damage or retaliation | Further public military developments. Odds: 70%. |
| T+24 | FAA restoration and airline cancellations | Substantial recovery by Monday morning. Odds: 75%. |
| T+48 | Oil and gold opening reaction to Gulf escalation | Elevated volatility. Odds: 80%. |
| T+48 | Semiconductor trading after Nvidia’s leadership shock | Continued AI-sector pressure. Odds: 65%. |
| T+96 | Trump–Putin–Xi agenda, nuclear proposals and Chinese objections | Additional negotiating positions emerge. Odds: 85%. |
| T+96 | Ukrainian and European objections to proposed security terms |
More coffee, chow for now,
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net