Trajectory-Check Thursday – Bounce Done – Winterizing

With a nod to the GATU and the caveat that this is a non-presidential briefing, we enter the land of “hip-deep” with no delusions about outcomes.

FPDM (Front Pages Don’t Matter)

We us trajectories instead of media blurbs to guide our future and current plans for what should be obvious reasons.  But, if you really need the read-in, consider:

• Lots of Nvidia related headlines are flying – and this ripples into the rest of the over-hyped AI basket.  Until G2 is done working 60s on his server farm build, though, spending money on capacity is ongoing.  Hard to unplug contracts.
• The East Coast-centric press is busy with (actual, local) news that includes an apartment building collapse and a collision between two ebikes. While novel, I probably shouldn’t buy a 3,000 watt dual-motor screamer for birthday #78.
• Still, scanning the papers is occasionally useful for seasonal timing. With the Chicago Sun-Times rolling Your car’s lost its pep? Pop open the hood, maybe a rat’s to blame.. Here 10-years back, or so, we had a $700 Lexus bill due to “the Rat Family Robinson” deciding to winter-over in the a/c ducting.  Seems the 2005 model wiring employed a soy-based plastic that tasted edible to low IQ rats.  (Not to be confused with officeholders.)

Still, save the shaking foundations of the tech bubble, too early to sort out whether this leads to the end of life on Earth, or – our latest thinking – we might have 3-months to go.  Like we did in 1929 at a comparable chart point. See the Wednesday Peoplenomics ChartPack for details.

Trajectory Notes

NOAA Climate Prediction Center may have an update today.  Look over here – see the maps and notice the timespans involved.

Once you get maps in your head, then head for your weather dispensary. We use WeatherUnderground and look at the 10-day or Calendar (monthly).  That fills out how to plan this weekend – and into next week with some (but not unlimited) confidence.

It may not seem like a big deal, but Thursday is when the really important decisions of life (tempura chicken or BBQ?) get made. Tempura (inside dish, stovetop) is smarter than wheeling 40,000 BTU of flame in the house…if you don’t follow the weather driver.

The only other useful thing is to see what kind of storms are ahead for the Economy and for that the weekly Unemployment Filings report is useful.

When UI filings are low (economy flywheel effects), it’s a sign there is still an economic pulse.

Do the border effects figure in, as well?  You go work that but notice:

Sidebar: Or, buy a construction outfit or a law firm…
The Supreme Court permitted construction to resume in the Big Bend region while litigation continues. Environmental and property-rights objections remain unresolved. May be forever.

Federal prosecutors in western Washington say mounting immigration detention challenges have overwhelmed available resources. Some cases may proceed without government opposition. Mess there.

When UI Filings take off to the upside (and eventually they will), that’s when the National Bank of Dad – whose Chief Credit Counselor screams “Pay as You Go – Avoid Debt!” – will be ready for calls.  We’ve been at this long enough to notice the calls tend to roll off when our (customer base) kids pass forty, or so.

The Bounce that Was?

Markets are pointing down, unless you just stepped out of a Cessna Caravan at 15,000 feet and are doing a drop & pop open.  IF that is you, then the markets may look stable.  Not so much for the working class

For the rest of us, markets may look “Hoover.”  If you’re under thirty and haven’t cleared your head yet, that’s a vacuum cleaner reference meaning markets are likely to suck today.  Sure, the futures painted the Dow up 62 for the open, but seriously? The techs are looking at QuikClot for all the red. We keep some around for the end of the world.  Why bleed out before the very last scenes?

OK…how do we get there?  The last scene? My bet?

Two rounds of “peace talks” (one per war) means the math is there for a short ceasefire somewhere.  That could hit the markets like a line of blow – and that’s how the potential is there for screaming final upside.  Still, our Fractal Friend says “Expect the…”

(If you’re under 25, the next implied line is “…unexpected” and you shouldn’t have been toking up before school.).

News Compressor: ON

FORWARD-ONLY OUTLOOK
Next 24 hours: Watch the Abu Dhabi closing statements for concrete agreements on prisoners, security guarantees, or another negotiating round. Odds: 65%. that talks produce a continuation framework rather than a final settlement.

Next 48 hours: Monitor Russian Baltic export terminals and the Strait of Hormuz for additional shipping interruptions. Either theater could produce a disproportionate energy-price reaction.

Next 96 hours: Watch Treasury yields, AI-sector financing, and preparations for the Trump-Xi summit. The central question is whether geopolitical diplomacy reduces risk faster than inflation increases the cost of capital.

Now, the Bullshit Details:

1. Ukraine: Negotiating While the Bombs Fall
The United States, Russia, and Ukraine enter their second day of Abu Dhabi negotiations, with territorial concessions and security guarantees still unresolved. Both sides continue striking infrastructure, suggesting the diplomats are discussing peace while their militaries negotiate the price. Odds: 25%. for a substantive agreement emerging from this round.

2. Russia’s Energy Infrastructure Becomes a Battlefield
Russian authorities reported intercepting 92 drones over the Leningrad region, home to major Baltic export facilities and refineries; Ukrainian attacks have also threatened Ust-Luga and Kirishi. Independent verification remains incomplete, but the operational pattern is unmistakable: energy infrastructure is increasingly a strategic target.

3. Iran: The Strait Remains a Global Pressure Point
Oil recovered Wednesday after Iran rejected transferring enriched nuclear material abroad, complicating U.S.-Iran negotiations. With shipping attacks continuing around Hormuz, even a diplomatic breakthrough would not immediately eliminate insurance, mine-clearance, or transit risks.

4. Inflation: The Fed’s Escape Hatch Gets Smaller
Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report pushed Treasury yields higher and weakened expectations for monetary easing. AI-related equities are attempting a recovery, but financing costs remain the more important economic constraint.

Deeper In

Black Sea Security. The European Commission pledged €50 million to accelerate a Bulgaria-Romania maritime security hub after attacks on commercial vessels. NATO’s eastern maritime defenses are strengthening. Escalating.  But it fits our NATO needs an arms race (or war) to maintain the charade of governance.

Gaza Ceasefire Trouble. Palestinian medical officials reported seven deaths from Israeli attacks. Waterfront real estate, right?

China Trade Reset. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for more balanced U.S.-China trade ahead of next week’s expected Trump-Xi meeting.

Press Freedom. A federal appeals court ordered narrower disclosure of journalists’ LinkedIn communications in a classified-information investigation. The ruling limits broad collection without ending the investigation. Judicial restraint.

Artificial Intelligence Investment. Asian semiconductor stocks rallied as demand for AI computing remained strong, despite Wall Street’s inflation worries. Investors continue distinguishing infrastructure demand from financing risk. Expanding.

8. Autonomous Weapons. Governments prepare for November 16–20 Geneva discussions over legally binding restrictions on weapons that select targets autonomously. Like nukes and bioweapons, this will be ignored while we all pretend to be humane.

Taiwan announced plans to close its Papua New Guinea representative office and end LNG purchases, citing Chinese pressure.

Congressional Gridlock. Following Democratic Senate gains, Chuck Schumer warned that conservative Supreme Court nominees would face resistance. Judicial appointments could become an early confrontation between Congress and the White House. Our view is “What was good for the goose…”

Around the Ranch:  Winterizing

45 out here in the woods overnight.  Winterizing will be on the To-Do shortly.

• Check car and truck batteries before full-on miserable weather.
• Freeze socks on the outside plumbing.  Good time to purge any dead-end waterlines so you don’t get mixing of stale water with fresh water supplies.
• I did the furnace filter change a week back – imagine! Ahead of schedule on an item.  Is this what retirement is?  Why, next thing you know, I will be pre-mowing the lawn for next spring…
• And the next week, or so, will be spent trying to figure out whether to roll with a Texas summer buzz cut on my hair and cover with a “trapper hat” OR let it grow long and look older and spend more time toweling off.  Here comes some Excel work to model it out…

We’re casually watching for travel deals to warmer climes.  But with a 4K (or better) and lots of streaming, pissing away a fortunate to “ride the back of the buss” with a bunch of coughers after going through the TSA cattle call…no, a sixpack and a clicker win every time.

Write if normal shows up,

George@ure.net