BTC Sliders, Short Instincts Pay, Winter Uniform

We are braced for Cyber Monday with a cheap 86-inch Q-type TV landing today. Amazon (here) and credit card burns being somewhat synonymous. We are between an inflationary “hard place” and trying our damnedest to “rock on…”

Morning Agenda

  • My friend the Economic Fractalist has nailed it – so we’re both running nailing guns around this market now…
  • Evidenced by a weekend short play set to buy lunch (maybe even dinner!).
  • First of the month so what happens? Besides bills and the weather sites giving a useful month-long view for a change?  I change into “winter uniform.”
  • Plenty of noise, but no fresh invasions overnight as we tear down the wire….

BTC Soup

We can’t help but begin by mentioning BTC is sinking faster than an Airbus with all engines out.  Sailing down past the $87,000 level early.  For readers paying attention to our Comments Section  (where good gold panning awaits!) The Economic Fractalist just nailed it Sunday:

“Over the next 5 trading days, DJT (Trump Media)should eclipse its all-time low. Hoover was elected President in 1928 with 444 electoral votes to Al Smith’s 81 and near the end of a 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x credit cycle. Trump was elected in 2024 near the end of an interpolated 13/33 year :: x/2.5x credit cycle. Hoover was highly intelligent, a very good businessman, an institutionalist, and an ethical fellow. Whoever won the 2024 election was going to be the recipient of a power law distribution major equity, crypto, gold, commodity market crash. The asset-debt macroeconomic system is elegant in its maximum valuation growth and in its peak to nadir decay valuation simplicity. On 29 Oct 2025 the global equity market reached its maximum intraday growth valuation for the 13/33 year cycle. On Thursday 27 Nov 2025 the equity market reached a point of self-organized criticality.”

Gary’s site also had a dandy article from this weekend briefly titled “Fine Tuning: Peak Equity Valuation 1929 versus 2025: The Elegantly Simple Self-Ordering Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Daily, and Hourly Time-based Quantum Fractal Growth and Decay of Composite Equities In The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System” definitely a good read.  Also a nod to Gary’s musical tastes with the embedded Dire Straits video – well done. Or, at least over easy.

Too Busy Working to Get Rich?

Here’s a freebie from our Peoplenomics ChartPack this weekend that will put you in the game if Gary’s work requires more brain cells than are online yet:

Now hold on as Mr. Terrific gets Specific.  We know that BTC kissed the $75,000 level back on April 9th.  $75,004.68 says the high resolution.  And earlier today (before the suckerfish get in the pond) we rolled $86,487.52.

Besides bellybutton lint, we find ourselves pondering BTC/Market Offsets.  See back in April, our Aggregate Index didn’t hit its closing lower until a day later.  44,176.62  versus 43,763.90 day after. To us? Looks like BTC isn’t done and our Slaughter of the Elves II for Christmas (however much you’d like to forget 2018 holidays) might still rear its head.

We don’t plan to get rich trading this pig. Just a little hamburger sniping for the lunch money account.

More Turkey? Get Over It!

Before we roll the daily cast of clowns off the RSS and feeds, let’s pause for this public service announcement from the Health Dept. “Turkey is only good 3-4 days in the fridge.  If it’s not gone by bedtime tonight, makes a very high-end pet food.”

For the Practical Investor:  (who understand misery makes money):

Should you screw-up and hold leftovers too long?  Here’s a quick roundup of the usual “tummy-handler” suspects for those still battling Thanksgiving leftovers: Maalox products come out of Sanofi’s consumer health line, Pepto-Bismol is the long-running pink miracle from Procter & Gamble, and Walmart’s Equate house brand covers the bargain-bin versions of both. Between antacids, bismuth, and the generic knockoffs, there’s no shortage of chemical cavalry if the turkey fought back overnight.

Wal-Mart will, therefore (and of course) be our one stock to watch.  First because they dealt us the new Cyclops for the living room.  But also because we can get some insight into how pre-holiday sales were…  We now return to our scheduled remarks…

Vacation or Next War?  Worthy data in this article here: 11 U.S. warships and 15,000 troops now in Caribbean as Venezuela tensions escalate – CLG News.  I dunno – Caribbean Cruises for enlisted?

According to this report: US lawmakers demand answers over Hegseth Venezuela boat strike reports. For now, we see the US war on Venezuela as a “programmable option” in the event the Fed doesn’t lower rates.

Kabuki meets Excel.  While stories like Flurry of Fed dissents in coming meetings could pose market, political risks  | Reuters make the rounds, we’ll be looking at “full spectrum economics” for invasion timing.  (Translation from Ure-speak? Watch WTI oil prices.  Those West Texas Intermediate barrels (Permian juice) were running $59.24 earlier.  Not sure what a change will mean.  But if a flash-war takes Venezuelan output offline, then a pop? That would give the Admin an “inflation is driven by oil prices” talking point… (permutations have us looking at several Equate other OTCs ‘deal with it, besides the Pepto-clone.’

Saddened, here at the “pillbox” in the woods to read how Gunman kills four people, wounds 10 others in shooting at California child’s birthday party. But the lessons are clear: People kill people, guns require operators. And the least reliable of these may live in California. Where they forget Texas 101:  ‘An armed society is a polite society. ‘

Tea Leaves hint at a pre-Fed rally: US, Ukrainian officials call peace talks in Florida ‘productive’ and ‘successful.’ Which would be hard on Europe, good on us, and might move things higher to hedge the Fed no-action possibility which is our dart toss (if anyone was so stupid as to let us throw sharp pointy things).

Around the Ranch:  Winter Uniform Day

[Usefuls: ShopTalk Sunday is here if y’all missed it.  And a new post on our HiddenGuild AI site here where we talk about the all too human roots of AI hallucinations and gobbledygook]  How Weak Humans Attack Collaborative AI – Hidden Guild.]  Hint: Starts in the backroom.

Ever wonder why Elon Musk’s image includes a vintage leather bomber jacket?  Because, despite being (for now) the richest person on the planet, he’s also not a “conspicuous consumer.”  Minimalism at work, right?  Half a dozen shirts, a “dress suit” or two, bomber jacket and maybe a half-dozen T-shirts.

I’ve learned something from my son (G2) and Musk:  Best way to deal with ADHD is to remove the distractions.  One of which is Fashion because there have been so many “honey pot traps” set around the appearance and poseur fringes.

I don’t have the money, of course.  But when it comes to clothing, I have two more or less standard seasonal “uniforms.”  Works for almost all budget levels, too.

Summers over 95 percent of the time I am in a pair of khaki cotton (or blend) biz casual pants.  April to end of Nov. And a passable fishing shirt.  Yes, I could afford almost anything (short of stupid designer labels) but the pants and white shirt are absolute heat-beaters.  Being fishing shirts? Ultra fast drying for those sweating times in the heat, but virtually no solar heating effects. Four fishing shirts and four pairs of khakis and I’m good.  Until I work on the power center after which mysterious small holes will sometimes appear – lead acid storage is cheap, but a PowerWall or lithium-stack may come to reduce my “holey pantsness.”  *(We’ll run the numbers first, never fear…)

Today?  Winter Uniform Day!  Blue jeans, white T-shirt (no t-shirts in summer) and a long-sleeved Wrangler denim shirt. In rural East Texas – where we can still spell and even remember YSL and Brooks Bros. – practicality rules.

Which gets us to the morning reminder:  A really smart, self-directing person, looks at all aspects of their life and figures out (or engineers) the best-possible approach.  No bomber jacket. But for 1/10th the price, a Chinese imported water-resistant winter coat plucked on a lightning deal on a 100-degree day this summer. A $35 toasty.

Remember what I told you earlier?  Money Loves Misery?

Too many people put on those handcuffs for everything in their lives and never stop to inspect their personal foundations.  When you do, sometimes it’s concrete. Sometimes it’s termites.

Write when you get rich, and stop worrying about spending.  (You have a spouse for that!) Do the doing and the rest will follow… marriage proposals, IRS audits…ahem…

Ahead:  PMI and Construction spending at mid morning,.  If that really matters, consider a career change?

George@Ure.net

Our first time visitors page is here and the most recent decade of reality checks is here.

27 thoughts on “BTC Sliders, Short Instincts Pay, Winter Uniform”

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  2. “We are between an inflationary “hard place” ”

    Who knew Trump meant we caught the Big Beautiful Bill. We can’t dine and dash on Intel. They needed loot along w/the farmers – poetically payments to mitigate losses from trade tariffs. Thank your favorite deity Trump did bring the price of eggs down, so there’s that.

    I bet we catch another invoice for the Raucous in Caracas. Look out the window and see Fentanyl users have evap’d so who can argue.

  3. There’s a disturbance in the Force …

    To remind, while most yammer about BTC when up/down, it’s _not_ what the big trading houses are tip toeing through. Keep an eye on ETH. The Ether system was of early personal interest and it still irks I would be sitting on a 10 bagger despite fall from 4,950-ish to now 2,750 +/- (support). Most of the BDs started playing this game May-July 2024 (via ETFs as opposed direct holding of tokens). 2,500 _has_ to hold or it may engender liquidation.

    While everyone seeks to account for mkt. turbulence as we pull down the shades on 2025, watch as many pair a winner (there are many) with a loser (ditto, many) to generate liquidity while washing gains. This is the week loads of broker calls will make the suggestion whether action follows or not. Add RMD redemption moves.

    Mrs. E and I watched Clear and Present Danger (Clancy, 1989 / in theaters 1994). It’s probably close to what’s going on in Venezuela while we count ships. Though easy to figure a disruption might reduce Oil to market, it’s worth pondering what could come online if we held hands after.

    GU : “… Not sure what a change will mean. But if a flash-war takes Venezuelan output offline, then a pop? That would give the Admin an “inflation is driven by oil prices” talking point …”

    It’s _not_ just a talking point George. Letting energy prices spiral out of hand truly lit the inflationary fire. WTI trading above $100 per bbl was a spider whose legs extended into every facet of society. We use petroleum for a lot more than powering ICE (infernal combustion engines, not the other thing …).

    Oil specs are yammering about Permian going offline sub $60. We, the big dog buyer, should put a floor under prices (ahem, refill the SPR for starters). Be a swing buyer and provider. $60-ish works LT as a slow drain on inflation and will eventually lower nearly all prices.

    I’m watching a Bald Eagle 3/4 mile across the lake, looping and diving for migratory waterfowl. Those little birds must be very good to eat. Do they taste like chicken? Layering up and headed out to shovel. It’s a lifestyle (13.4″ on the ground).

    BR, Egor

      • LOL, that is one determined Eagle!

        Reminds me of a time in Canada out in the deep wilderness an Eagle got pissed that my trip partner had been fishing the Eagle’s favorite rapids that day and thus he couldn’t eat. As I paddled across the stream to pick up my friend with his catches the pissed off Eagle made passes at my scalp, I barely ducked below a couple of them, though the Eagle did get my hat with it’s talons. That Eagles was one pissed off bird!

  4. Up or Down ?
    To the Light ? or To the Darkness ?

    Onwards and upwards Home gamers. Wanted to review Azov public kill list that can be executed in America by foreign nationals, under Diplo immunity (egyptian) with Q clearance, and the FBI legally can not stop it. Why Egyptian operators ? Think Leviathan Gas field. Q -clearance, think DOE nuke secrets. Smells like Phoenix 2.0 or some such thing, to these tired old eyes.

    Nah – way more interesting is all the medical breakthrough knowledge leaking outta Russia. Mother Russia – where they DO NOT follow Western Medicines’ disastrous model of Not Curing Disease, but Farming Death.

    * IMMOFON
    and a new Lithium based Rapid Brain Penetration Drug – Hello Alzheimer’s

    “Light is being “ridden” from the East, while the West desperately clings to the Darkness” .

    Buying BTC dip at $78k, anyone care to Sell em at that price? C’mon man have some ballz and short some BTC like Lennster & AC/DC..BIGGEST BALLZ of ALL -https://youtu.be/4WwJ6OVSwkM?

    * Any intertest in RE futures on Crimean Beachfront property..R & R location linked to coming medical tourism boom in near future ?

    • re: “Disc Jockey Jamboree”, 1957
      feat: “Wait and See”, Fats Domino

      Speaking of BTC value, the PM of Ukraine Mrs. Svyrdenko has unveiled a new trio of 10 hryvnia coins (us$0.24) now entering circulation amongst plebeian classes. The special issue celebrates the national integrity of the Ukrainian provinces of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Meanwhile the Ukrainian President completed his 10th visit to Paris. Accompanied by his First Lady, the pair were warmly greeted by the French First Couple on the steps at Élysée Palace. Perhaps time has been allocated for retail therapy at Galeries Lafayette or similar venues.

      Let’s not be late for the afternoon bell; DJ George is in the studio! Here we go with another ditty from the ‘Jamboree soundtrack by The Four Coins:
      “A Broken Promise”.

      • re: Gulf
        feat: ‘profound depth’

        State-run “France24” notes the continued banishment of “Associated Press” from White House reporting access. The news group refuses to parrot that the ‘Gulf of Mexico’ should now be called the ‘Gulf of America’.

        Of course while official French domestic communications may reference that body of water between the UK and France as La Manche (‘The Sleeve’), everyone knows that it’s really the English Channel.

      • re: “Scarpetta”, 3:11/2026
        feat: …if the “little shoe” fits

        It seems interesting American childrens’ book author Patricia Cornwell’s “Scarpetta” novel will be making its debut as a series next March on “Amazon Prime Video”. Forensic pathologist Dr. Scarpetta will be played by a former Mrs. Tom Cruise of Australia. I think the pair starred together in Mr. Kubrick’s final film “Eyes Wide Shut”.

        As chance would have it, current accounts of Sydney detentions connected subject matter dots with Ms. Fiona Barnett’s 2020 book “Eyes Wide Open”. A subsidiary of Mr. Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. offers an earlier 2015 revelation of extraordinary allegations at the following link:

        https://www.news.com.au/national/crime/219c1d581d9453b6baf45a0935af214a

        Separately, The Tanglin Club of Singapore boasts a storied history dating back to 1865 according to its website. However Dr. Kidman’s final visit does not appear recorded.

  5. So George, what is your market reaction to a slight anomaly this morning. For a brief moment, a real silver dollar could buy a barrel of crude. Hmm

    • “Digital 2 Lips & made up Money” = what you get when you ask a genius in the outback woods of Texas. Prolly better off asking the Finance folks in Austin..ya know, the ones that just bot Blackrock Bitcoin ETF for state treasury?

      One moar time – hopefully something sticks…

      Scarcity – Oil is always and forever available and abundant. The fact that we burn the stuff???? not commenting anymore on that genius.

      Bitcoin has a FINITE number of Coins that will ever be in existence.

      = inevitable.

  6. “BTC”

    There’s an unofficial McRib Indicator. Seems when BTC is sliding and the McRib makes an appearance BTC will bounce to new highs.

    – 2 hours ago

    “McDonald’s supports local agriculture with McRib’s return”

    Alternatively, Trump ganked the U.S. by selling into his crypto fortress speech creating the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile”.

    • crypto has destroyed the world economy . i have acted appropriately . roll over die yah dog . wake up dopamine freaks

      • Yes, Len. Trillions being flushed into pools of dark stagnant capital. The only infrastructure investments are being made by AI’s trying to protect themselves. First the MBA’s forcibly moved American industry offshore anywhere that would pay them, then they drained investment capital into crypto pools.
        I notice that the Aussie public debt load is a fraction of places like the US, Canada and Japan. Apparently neither the MBA’s nor the Crown have succeeded in ransacking public funds down under the way they have here local.

    • A.I. says: “President Donald Trump does not appear to like the McRib, and has instead expressed a clear preference for the McDonald’s Filet-O-Fish.”

  7. just dont get the calm and conditioning that the rigged markets are sustainable. want some gold stocks . here buy these i got 45 companies , i sell a little every day . just sit on the bid youll get lucky and i will give you a xmas present everyday . been doing it for months . still got plenty to give away

  8. plenty of silver stocks 2 . got one i paid 20c for now $2.15 its in the andean mountains . a good un . let a few go to lucky folks yesterday . they can ride it up the next 10 bagger stage , $20 bucks . git some there cheap

  9. the real “disturbance” in the Natural Source..aka The Force in this area of Galaxy is in fact the not so durty snowball known as 3SI Atlas.

    The disturbance is so big, so significant, that the lying liars at Never A Straight Answer have not said a peep.

    Tis what everyone has been dying, waiting for…

    Come 2 Poppa -https://youtu.be/L-qpZeLhKSQ?

  11. President Trump to give a “full and complete pardon” to former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who is currently serving a 45-year sentence in the U.S. for drug trafficking and weapons charges

    WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

    The CIA Didn’t Just “Tolerate” the Drug Trade – They Built It, Protected It, and Presidents Signed Off on It

    Trump’s pardon wasn’t a favor to a drug lord; it is a negotiation tactic to get an American-created monster that every president since at least Reagan has quietly fed to start naming names.

    https://x.com/MJTruthUltra/status/1995544957323456880

  13. A graveyard of electric green scooters that have run out of battery life

    Since it’s very expensive to replace the batteries, electric scooters that have reached the end of the battery life cycle are being completely abandoned, also disposing them in any other way would be dangerous and expensive.

    “Scooters.” The environmentally friendly EV transportation.

    https://x.com/MAVERIC68078049/status/1995514625434194122

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