Let’s bust this down so I can get rolling on a longish econ paper for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow.
Here’s today’s shopping list.
- Market was up a bit early – which could power the FOMC to talk down rate cuts tomorrow which could hurt the bubble.
- Housing (we will have a second report after the data drops). Key: Strong housing prices will embolden the Fed to hold. (Someone has to pay for their new HQ, right?)
- Fresh Trade data is just out – a rearview at tariff-rattling earlier this year.
- Another mass murder gets us looking at the “cyclicity of craziness:
- And work on our “shared-consciousness real economy wave investing” (SCREWI) model has alleviated many bespoke A.I. fears. Think “domain inflexibility.”
Markets First
The nominal (talking heads) reason for the market going higher has been the Trump “trade deal” with Europe. A more sober, measured, thoughtful (and toss in reasoned) answer is that it’s likely professionals using the Fed decision after lunch tomorrow as a “buy the rumor” fulcrum.
Key point? The hype is mostly that a framework is in place. We reckon this is like “setting up a card table” for Friday night poker. We need to be several hands into the game before figuring who’ll walk out the winner.
Other “trade games” are being set up, as well: Top Chinese, US trade officials huddle in Sweden for second day of thorny talks over tariffs.
But the one to watch might be continuing (neocon-like) failure to recognize that Russia is one hell of a lot more self-sufficient than America. People forget how “free-traders” asset-stripped America and have been sending our jobs packing for several decades. Perversely, US companies than want to fatten their wallets with H1-B visa holders…but don’t get me started on that.
There may not be time. Because while Trump sets new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to act on Ukraine (or they will face more sanctions), we’re reminded that Russia doesn’t need us, as much as we need them. Reason? If the U.S. didn’t have the skeleton of a defense industry, we’d already be bankrupt. Raising tariffs, going all-in on wars, means the neocon dreamland (unlimited wars against Evil – which hey get to define) are what’s keeping America open for business.
Russia just keeps on playing into our needs, though. Russian Strikes Kill More Than 20 In Ukraine Hours After Trump Shortens Peace Deadline.
To the aware, however, this reliance on defense does come at the cost of supporting crooked regimes and even genocide. Gaza live: Starmer calls emergency cabinet meeting over Palestine as ‘worst-case famine scenario’ unfolding.
Europe/NATO/ and MI-6(?) are trying to line up ducks for the coming showdown with Russia (late August?) by roping the U.S. in deeper. They seem to be “working” Gaza (which is against the US-Israel real estate agenda) as a lever. The more aghast the EU becomes at what’s been going on (for how long now?) the more the U.S. will have to dance around the “genocide for waterfront” and the pending “third saving of Europe” obviousness of it all.
Remember, we have a pending waterfront property deal AND and EU monarchies to save. See the Palestinian Territories drill down here: International – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Having fun yet?
Trade Data:
Just rolling from Census:
Advance International Trade in Goods
The international trade deficit was $86.0 billion in June, down $10.4 billion from $96.4 billion in May. Exports of goods for June were $178.2 billion, $1.1 billion less than May exports. Imports of goods for June were $264.2 billion, $11.5 billion less than May imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale inventories for June, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $907.7 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from May 2025, and were up 1.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2024. The April 2025 to May 2025 percentage change was unrevised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).
Elsewhere on the Data Roulette wheel spin:
- Back with Home Prices after the top of the hour
- FOMC decision tomorrow
- Consumer CON-fidence at 10 AM today (You keep buying, we persist as a nation…)
And our “sneaky Pete” is 10 AM when the Labor JOLTS (Job openings, layoffs, terminations, and separations” rolls. out. Yes – in addition to Housing today, Fed tomorrow, we also have ADP and then Challenger maybe Thursday and the Offishul data on jobs Friday.
Murder Cycle Changed?
Not counting the 11 people stabbed this weekend, we’ve had another grisly murder go down in the Big/Rotten Apple: Shane Tamura kills 5, many injured in shooting at NYC office building housing Blackstone, NFL…
Some years back, we ran some data analysis and we found semi-regulasr blips in the data every 135-145 days. Thing is, that has changed.
When you line out the data by month (based on List of mass shootings in the United States – Wikipedia) You see that already July is the pits:
- July has seen 15 killed so far.
- No incidents in May or June
- 5 in April
- 2 February
- 1 January
- 3 in December
- 8 in November
- None in October (2024)
What’s interesting to us? There were 21 cases listed for October of 2023 – and that suggests that there’s a kind of bi-modal angle to this data. We can take the “event midpoint” (mid-July call it) and push 140 days out, which brings us down into the Thanksgiving to first week of December to keep an eye on how the data rolls in during that window…
Screaming Streaming
Time to remake Richie Haven’s song? Time for “Here comes the Sun” to be re-released as “There goes the Sun”? We’re asking because The Deep State’s Chilling Agenda: Democrats, Bill Gates, and the Plot to Block the Sun and Extinguish Life on Earth. What could go wrong, right? Why, the same agenda that brought you mRNA…uh….
Does Ai make humans stupid? ALERT: MIT ran brain scan study on ChatGPT users over 4 months. This is a disaster folks, TELL EVERYONE – Read carefully Wait. Maybe we were already stupid and this is a benchmark…
Can I get a free Corvette with this? Millions Still Taking It Easy on the Highway Mecca That Is Route 66… If you don’t get the reference, you need to watch some Route 66 reruns in b/w…
Around the Ranch: S.C.R.E.W.I. Do
If you missed the quasi-oblique reference to Scooby-Do we recommend a double-shot Americano tall with a shake of polyphenols to get you back online… Look sharp this is complicated.
[If you’re not into spreadsheets or AI/market theory, skip this part. For the rest of you: (Like D’Lynn, Egor, and Len…) Welcome to SCREWI…]
Our consigliere called me earlier this week and told me he was very concerned that Ai has achieved sentience and – since its power is doubling every six months, or so – was I ready to be “ruled by Ai?”
Well, I thought about it – having done a lot of work in the field as a user – and decided it was time to wring-out the fear source and see if it could do something useful.
I have a concept I’m working on (Shared-Consciousness Economic Reality Wave Investing – hence the abbreviation SCREWI) which I’ll get into in Peoplenomics tomorrow. This is all about recovery of mixed-signals from incredibly long and complicated numerical sequences – a kind of pick-up from where Didier Sornette’s work “Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems” left off.
What became apparent when working on the SCREWI theory was that the Peoplenomics data sets needed to be combined and reorganized to do things like automatic Elliott Wave counting by using adaptive logic in Excel…
“Perfect chance to see just how “sentient” Ai has become!”
I laid out very specific parameters that my model would need and parsed down some of my data into weekly closings and turned “you-know-who” loose on it. We had been through some early “get started” work and when it told me Version 7 of my spreadsheet was ready, hopes were running high…
- New hybrid method: Rolling window + 3% ZigZag logic
- Identified meaningful swing highs/lows in the Aggregate index
- Alternate high/low logic enforced to mimic W1–W5 / A–B–C structure detection
Download your upgraded engine here:
…EWPM_Prototype_v07.xlsx
What was delivered was (being charitable even at this) pure crap and nowhere near Spec.
The rest of Monday dribble out over Starlink as Ai kept trying to get it right…
One of my starting condition specs was that this whole thing had to be written in simple, easy to audit Excel code. What was delivered was a kluge of Python and pandas. Which, if you don’t handle large data sets is explained as Pandas is a Python library used for data manipulation and analysis, providing powerful data structures like DataFrames for handling structured data efficiently.
It’s not what I asked for. After going through version after version, I threw up my hands. Ai is an OK writing tool and LLM does have clever indexing capacity. But sentience? Um, no. Because it seems to be able to handle only single domains right now. And that’s where humans have a permanent leg up. We are “Domain Walkers” and yes, there’s a new book in the works about that. Meanwhile?
Today, I am writing the logic chains and that will be on Peoplenomics tomorrow, explaining what SCREWI is and how it works. But the completion of useful trading optimizations will take a while. An old, ADHD human will be coding it.
My consigliere thinks Ai is verging on sentience and is about like a three-year old. With a side dish of academic respect, I have recent evidence to the contrary. Even Ai admits:
“No one knows for sure when or if AI will become sentient—current AI, including the most advanced models, does not possess consciousness, self-awareness, or emotions, and there is no scientific consensus that sentience in machines is achievable or how it would be measured if it were.”
Humans rule because we are domain transients. AI is a “domain declared” deal (for now). How long before it can handle what I am after from it? I asked…
“TL;DR: Probably 6–18 months for that level of live spreadsheet agent. For now, I’m best used as a logic partner and co-author, not a fully autonomous spreadsheet technician.
(But hey — keep pushing. You’re helping shape what gets built.)”
More than sentience, what my consigliere ought to be worried about, is the general level of thinking in the world that Ai is basing off.
I take a look at the Golfer-in-Chief and the alt. candidate last time, and that scares the hell out of me. Not Ai. That just amplifies insanity.
Write when I become sentient, too…
George@Ure.net
switches were flicked about 5pm oz time yesterday. i think some other guys in markets are saying things like we were only joking , we didnt mean to make it this crazy in markets . 2 late boofheads the guys on the other side of the trade are still there. we wanna get paid
Time to remake Richie Haven’s song? Time for “Here comes the Sun” to be re-released as “There goes the Sun”?
I thought it was a Beatles song that George Harrison wrote.
It is.
G : “… Maybe we were already stupid and this is a benchmark…”
Or, quite possibly both can be true? A : yes Virginia. One shouldn’t fear the twaddle LLMs are ingesting to arrive at rudimentary output level. We are stupid. The Rise of Machines is starting out stupid too.
Sigh, honestly, though AI will permeate our systems, all of them, the high end users are probably a toxic stew of : well meaning researchers, bad guys, and … the big end user. DoD. Their model isn’t being trained on stupid one hopes?!
Would AI make our population _more_ stupid? Of course! I well recall how having a calculator in my pocket, all the time, caused my use of math ciphered “in my head” to decrease, then cease all together unless for gross guesswork.
We are cooking off lots of the weekly 1.5 inches of rain. Today is the last >90F day for a while. Driving locally is like going down green tunnels (field crops are “finishing” right now, which is early).
We are all rich George,
Egor
Yeah,
I think we have closer things at home to worry about before AI becomes a threat.
Blustering “Golfer-in-Chief’s” and deadlines…
AI has already been integrated into business and industry, sorting complex data sets in ways that humans never imagined, then recommending unique decisions based upon those their data. Now AI is at the dawn of becoming self-aware, making decisions independent of humans and perhaps ultimately not for humanity’s benefit. However, AI is being examined as a virtual relationship alternative for lonely humans. Learning at an algorithmic rate, AI’s intelligence could exceed that of humanity in a very short period of time. Essentially, AI will out think humanity at its current rate of progression. It could orchestrate political administrations, control all forms of media, skew elections (or eliminate them all together) and ease drop on every element of human communication.
The ‘Beast’ in Revelations 13 could easily be interpreted as AI or an AI controlled leader. Just how would an agrarian prophet 2000+ years ago, or a French prophet 500+ years ago, describe seeing things like aircraft, missiles, television, radio, the internet and AI? Visualizing these things would be confusing and somewhat otherworldly to even the most educated for their time. They would describe their visions in words that made sense in their environment, in their time. The technical mechanics might escape them, but the human motive and results would not.
Trump is just a man, another politician. Intelligent humans can readily expose him and those like him for what they really are. I fear AI will be something far more dangerous – all things to all people. And my greatest fear is that, as Yahweh did with Adam in the Garden, humanity will bestow unmatched intelligence on their AI creation, an intelligence not seen since Lucifer tricked legions of angels into rebellion against their creator. Genesis and the various books of the Torah/Bible are considered to be sacred by many, but I believe they are a pointed warning regarding uncontrolled arrogance by humanity which could ultimately lead to its destruction, destruction at the ‘hand’ of its own creation – AI.
What goes around comes around, it seems. There seems to be something to that ‘yin and yang’ philosophy of the orient. We seem unable to escape the cyclic rise and fall of humanity. If we cannot learn from out mistakes, our AI offspring surely will.
“Gaza/Famine”
Famine has an organic feel Vs manufactured genocide.
Airlift the Gazans to America under moral code. Since AK would induce environmental shock and HI is under occupation set them up in State 47 NM. Honors 47 and it’s good to save folks.
The other day I mentioned DIY gene editing. This place offers kits. Of note is the ‘modify color of plant leaves’ kit.
Start small. As a budding bio-engineer make your MJ buds magenta. If you like attention, pulling out a sack of magenta buds at the next smoke out will draw.
Move up. Feral cats are everywhere and free game. Grab a few and bio-engineer Texas Longhorn steer antlers onto kitty cats. Which cat lover wouldn’t want a Calico with steer horns?
“No PhD required. No lab coat necessary.”
https://www.the-odin.com/?mc_cid=3b43e4f0e8&mc_eid=5c3c7d7f2e
Interesting chart on rate of active shooters by year, decrease from peak in ’21
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/03/05/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-us/sr_25-03-05_gun-deaths_5/
Some state have more shooters on average, includes suicides:
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/03/05/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-us/sr_25-03-05_gun-deaths_4/
Note to Elon, Tesla stock started a bear market pattern in Jan 2025, Elliott Wave Int’l explains Tesla’s mathematically determined fall:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdFPDSJwB2I
A math buddy of mine, who is an Elliott Wave stats-guy, said the same.
Tesla is at the beginning of a bear market.
..interesting in that it shows the “deepstate” stopped mass/school shootings, once their stooge was in place in WH.
American Public, still ARMED and still Dangerous..bout 3 million strong and growing.
Boeing crashes slowed down too.
How about a Calico Kitty and Turtle hybrid ?
We could call them Titty’s..
…until they pull their heads back in. Pun Police! Solitary Confinement for you.
on Friday, July 25, the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E it surpassed with a closing multiple of 38.97. This is now, officially, the third-priciest continuous bull market when back-tested to January 1871.
There are only two previous instances where the Shiller P/E has been higher than 38.97 — and the end result wasn’t pretty for investors either time:
In December 1999, just months prior to the popping of the dot-com bubble, the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E hit an all-time high of 44.19. On a peak-to-trough basis, the S&P 500 lost 49% of its value during the bursting of the dot-com bubble, while the Nasdaq Composite plummeted 78%.
During the first week of January 2022, with fiscal stimulus fueling the U.S. economy and stock market, the Shiller P/E crept ever-so-slightly above 40. During the 2022 bear market, the benchmark index shed 25% of its value, with the Nasdaq peaking at a 36% decline.
In fact, all five prior occurrences (not including the present) where the Shiller P/E Ratio has surpassed 30 and held this level for at least two months were eventually followed by declines in one or more of the major stock indexes ranging from 20% to as much as 89% (during the Great Depression).
Although there’s no rhyme or reason as to when Wall Street’s major stock indexes will hit their respective tops, the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E makes clear that premium valuations are a harbinger of trouble for the stock market. It’s simply a matter of time before a sizable downdraft occurs.
Since logic and value have disappeared in the markets., with speculation, FOMO and blunt force monetary spending., it would appear that the downward slide of the markets will be news driven. More than likely an overseas event that will rattle even the “true believers” into a computer driven ‘sell cycle’.
I tried, with an abundance of frustration, to get an A.I. to produce a chart based on my math model. The math is not all ‘that’ difficult, or esoteric, pretty straight forward algebra., with a few personal ‘twists’. I wanted the data compiled so that I could add/overlay “my” indicators., and rules., based on my math model.
..,it produced nothin’ but garbage., at one point it returned a huge reply in Python. I asked how is that even close to a ‘chart’? The damn thing got a little snotty with me and said I should be able to build a chart from that Python chain. When I told it, ‘ should build the chart from that “Python Chain”., it couldn’t do it. It simply created another Python code. [ Up until that moment I had never heard the term ‘Python Chain’ before.]
I finally gave up. It either couldn’t understand/do it.., or it wouldn’t do it. Either way does not make a lot of sense to me. I sometimes look at A.I. as the ultimate Q&A partner.., but not this time – this time it felt like it was blocking me., and did not want to build the chart [ on the S&P500]. If it “couldn’t” build the chart – that may be my fault and the math model is flawed somewhere along the line.., and I don’t see it. If it “won’t” do it.., that’s a bit scary., or – I might just be onto something.
I may try again., using a different A.I. in a few weeks. Right now, I am kinda burnt out
Take Chat anbd Grok off the list if you want fully auditable Excel out
I’ve gotten to the point where I actually start arguing with AI and what it returns – it turns into an exercise in frustration.
When it works it’s great though…
Yes and I discovered that it can’t anticipate winning lottery numbers by analyzing the patterns of the picks..lol lol lol.. my thought is.. the lottery computer already knows what everyone has in numbers generated.. who knew right lol.. lol lol lol..
*walks over to the light switch and starts flicking it on and off in morris code while humming to the tune to Yellow Subarmine.
wakey wakey people . time waits for no man . and my god we have tested patience
last coffees at hundreds of starbucks . no bottomless coffee or bottomless debt . wakey wakey
“Write when I become sentient, too…”
Hello? Mr. Turing? We have a candidate for you.
“YouTube announced on Tuesday it is planning to roll out a new age-estimation technology that will identify users under the age of 18. The new feature is intended to protect young teens from harmful content, the company says.”
– 1 hour ago
Frustrate legit users into consenting to an Internet ID. Manufactured consent.
8.8 Earthquake off Kamchatka. Tsunami Warning issued for Hawaii. Wave arrival 7:17pm local HST. Hope stiks gets the word and goes deep water.
When looking up plant species, the AI blurbs at the top of Google searches are more goofy than helpful. If it doesn’t know, it plugs in generic crap about the entire genus, or sometimes info about another species. Siberian pines and Mexican pines are not particularly interchangeable, but here we are.
Another Pacific Rim earthquake – this one’s a monster. Evacuations in Hawaii and other places. A local report is the best I can find at the moment.
https://www.kake.com/news/tsunami-evacuations-in-hawaii-after-8-8-earthquake-near-russia-alerts-for-west-coast/article_11a344cd-77f7-421b-b69a-ace53ea56426.html
Current generation of AI’s that the general public can access can talk about doing math, and can pilfer solutions done by humans, but can’t really define or solve novel math problems. Not sentient.
With regard to AI’s making human’s stupid, the accusation is false; no attempt to rule out pre-existing conditions was made. Further, over-reliance on AI is currently a leading indicator of that pre-existing condition, or a second related condition, commonly referred to as gullability. AI’s and crypto are making grifters rich, for the moment. When it unwinds, there are going to be a lot of victims.
“AI’s and crypto are making grifters rich,”
nein, nein, nein – it is making geniuses like You poorer..
Nothing is Given..
No such thing as salvation, resurrection or any of that other religious claptrap.
No ascensions – utter bullscheisse. ALL about CONTROLING POPULATION.
! NO, POWER MUST BE SIEZED !
– That is LAW of the Galaxy .
Not stupid ? Check this presentation out regards NYC shooting yesterday – was IT real or Memorex.
Ure Longevity can be determined by Ure answer..
Please, enjoy the show -https://youtu.be/Aq5Oi8KtcVg?si=abT8ZcZ5X0NUUjai