Other than more Fed-Speak today – and a PMI number just after the open – a large chunk of mental processor clicks is being devoted to solving the unknowable.  Namely, when to short this bloated pig of a market. Our consigliere thinks we may have until sometime after Labor Day.  Because a gigantic “fall in the … Read More

With Income Taxes filed, and part-way through updating our tree farm management plan, it’s comic relief to read the headlines and try to sense what could possibly be next.   Very much like going to the circus (Ringling Brothers) as a kid.  Except seems to have a lot more than three rings, peanut allergies, and that … Read More

Wherein we describe a movement of warfare toward “Tainter Point Wars.”  Which we set about describing with plenty of historical references. From there, we jump into Ure’s world of woo-woo dreams and get a glimpse of where the “new styles” of warfare seem to be leading us. As one colleague in the review loop for … Read More

The price of homes has been holding steadily higher, in the Case-Shiller/S&P numbers just out. But will the latest numbers be enough to get the Fed to back down rates a bit? YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in … Read More

Yes, a lot going on today.  Not the least of which is some data (Durable Goods. and Housing) which we will get to in a second.  But around here? The best news story of the week is what? Tax Troubles Solved Let me begin with a hearty “Thanks!” to TurboTax and E-Trade/Morgan for getting my … Read More

Markets are setting up, in our view (but not financial advice) as making a slight bounce around the open, then continuing down for perhaps an hour, or two early.  But then we’ll see how things move in advance of news events to come this week. As you know, we differ significantly with those who say … Read More

As we wrap up February next week, The Ides of March loom large. Not that Julius Caesar will be assassinated again, but the World could be on a hard boil by then as global events remind us of an old Talking Heads song – “Lifetime Piling Up.” The good news, such as it can be … Read More

From G.A. Stewart, whose https://theageofdesolation.com has been scoring so many hits on how the Future rolls out lately: “George, Honestly, I am praying that I have gotten it all totally wrong. I would be very happy to be the biggest fool on the planet as we watch March and April pass by without a major … Read More

What passes for “normal” today is in position to have its ass kicked inside the next three weeks.  It takes a little bit of explaining – and reading G.A. Stewart’s outlook for the March 10-11 period (a Sunday/Monday) which he summarized in an article here. I know a lot of people who’ve done good work … Read More

It would take a supercomputer to model the contortions in financial markets today.   Because while the early Futures were pointing to a Rocket Thursday moonshot, a more sober, inflation-adjusted view of Reality brings something else into focus.  If I may? Hold the Phone: Cellular outages hit thousands in U.S., AT&T users most affected (cnbc.com)  Statistically, … Read More

Just posted on the TurboTax forum today – you may find this of interest: I may have identified the import error E-Trade to TurboTax.  I am an active trader and on import, the “disallowed Wash sale” is being double counted.  I have both an old (E-Trade) and new (E-Trade by Morgan). Let’s look at the … Read More

Most folks become like the people they hang out with. But it seemed to me (on a reflective birthday weekend and all) that I really needed a more formalized checklist of “things to look for” in other people. Not that I’m putting myself above anyone else, mind you. In fact, it’s the opposite.  I have … Read More

Now that I’m officially old – and the whole country took a day to mark the occasion – we can get on to the important business of doing??? Nothing. Yeah. This is one of those weeks when about the only thing to report on will be the “hatchet jobs” when political whozzits and whatzits will … Read More