Might as well get the GDP numbers out of the way first: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the second estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily … Read More

OK, so Europe struggles to put its “big boy pants’ on while the Deep State goes to war on Musk. Toss in nearly two dozen charts (and how to look at them as “snow stakes” in wintery mountains) and a grand time will be had by all. Well, except people trying to make it big … Read More

AI bubble ending is one thing but the housing situation?  Well, gets interesting, doesn’t it? “YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for December, up from a 3.7% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual … Read More

Really, really bad, to answer the rhetorical question. I won’t call it a “breakthrough” but we have been using our Ebbinghaus-Ure Model to good effect with the market decline gathering speed now.  Last week, I was warning you (go ahead and look at the chart) that a “convergence of averages” can sometimes spell Big Change.  … Read More

Busy as hell around here (though I know it has been coming).  Spring is in the air and for one old man, two deck plans and a generator shed plus greenhouse repairs, plus…  well, to the column, huh? VIX, Volatility, and CFNAI We figure another hard down (or blow-off rally) will happen this week.  Because … Read More

The philosophy of workmanship, purpose of life, and durable projects is served up for brunch. A Project Gutenberg page, The Project Gutenberg eBook on The Way to Wealth, by Benjamin Franklin. (free) deserves a bookmark.  For in it, Franklin speaks of Practical Matters: “Keep thy shop, and thy shop will keep thee:” and again, “If … Read More

When “reality bites” you’ll want to have the peroxide handy. Rinse out the wounded past and get on with the living. Think about all the incisors! We’ve got rumors of Ukraine turning over, a president who is doing more housecleaning than Heloise (hint, hint). And the Left is getting darned near desperate. Thing that worries … Read More

The mount of “actual” news is not particularly awe-inspiring today.  Been a bitch of a cold week, the scalar project (1 orf 2) is ready to ship out of the lab. But there is a certain “hollowness” to it all that seems less than promising. A decades-old saying (from when I taught the fine art of … Read More

Here’s an update on our Ebbinghaus view (much more legible than this morning’s).  Converge and then a break, anyone?   Here as a PDF. 20250220midpt   -g  

Did you read the Fed notes when they came out Wednesday afternoon?  No?  (Can’t blame you, there’s a real life going on elsewhere…) Anyway, the VBD (Very Big Deal) of it is the Fed is worried in their rate talks about the impact of tariffs which will be along in just over a week say … Read More

Paradoxically, we can learn about “what’s ahead” by looking over our shoulders.  Because this being “birthday week” there is a ton to consider about Life.  Which often gets overlooked in the “noise floor of current events.” Some pointers along the way, the many charts in our daily ChartPack, and some possible outcomes from presently evolving … Read More

We are looking at a modestly higher opening in the early Futures prices after the holiday. But it’s not too even and God only knows what’s really ahead. First on prices: Stock Futures point higher (1/3 pct) but we don’t trust ’em.  Too early. Inflation fears are back – in a big way. Gold is … Read More

With our Presidents Day activities (getting a scalar prototype out the door this week_) most of today will be devoted to work in Ure’s Old Man Lab.   I don’t talk about it much – people’s eyes tend to glaze over, but it’s a very well-appointed place to hang out and do work on the fringe-stuff … Read More