We have to start off this morning by “running the numbers.” Because, like it or not, this is one way of trying to out-guess where the future is leading. IF, that is, you believe the “perfect pricing model” of trading. Which holes that all known information is already in the markets at some level. We … Read More
Only this is a “calculus of near future.” not that miserable simultaneous equations crap. Besides, if you follow our work, there’s a chance that consciousness has other ways than numbers to “understand Big Picture” stuff. We’ll save that for a different day. Today’s calculus problem is simple – no numbers needed – just a good … Read More
Two items to crankl into your financial ruminations. The Case-shiller story first: Headline is Housing is up 2.7 percent year-on-year YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.7% annual return for April, down from a 3.4% annual gain in the previous month. The … Read More
A two-part report today as we await the Housing data which will be out a few minutes past 8 (Central). Be sure to check back then. World is in high state-change mode today as the Middle East ceasefire minute is (pardoning the term) blowing up. Which pisses off you-know-who? Trump drops f-bomb live on TV … Read More
What’s the old “I have good news and I have bad news…which do you want first?” Um…good feels right. OK, World War 3 did not (yet) break out. Iran’s foreign minister is in Moscow about now talking to Vlad Putin. Abbas Araghchi co-ordinating with Vladimir Putin in Russia after US strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, the … Read More
A wee bit of focus now on “last minute checklists” before the world, um….well, we hope not…. While we have been buying the usual (solar panels, reach out of touch someone rounds, and a bit of chow…) our thinking this week somehow got over into the hand tools for use if (or when) the grid is … Read More
Happy first day of Summer? The world is holding its breath this weekend as events in Iran could take a turn either way. Plus, more personnel discussions from the Decider in Chief. In our ChartPack today, the mystery of the narrowed Bullish spread deepens. And in one of our thinking pieces, we explore “The Reality … Read More
Remember the (bad) movie? Weekend at Bernie’s? “Weekend at Bernie’s (1989) is a dark comedy film where two young insurance employees, Larry and Richard, discover their boss, Bernie Lomax, has been murdered after they arrive at his luxurious beach house for a weekend party. To avoid suspicion and keep the party going, they pretend Bernie is … Read More
This is a federal holiday, in case you have forgotten: Juneteenth. The mail will not be delivered, but UPS and FedEx will be working. Parking meters are one of today’s great racial dilemmas. In a slower news climate, it would be interesting to discuss inequality in Federal Holidays – we could piss off everyone with … Read More
A slider of economic data to begin, update on the wars, but then into Inflation to Come. Which, we think will be a big problem by the end of the year. Because war’s aren’t cheap. Toss in nearly two dozen views in our ChartPack and it’s a good time to be planning for “whatever follows.” … Read More
Retails Sales is the lead item today. Remember, this could be a bit “lumpy” because of the on again, off again on tariffs… ” Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $715.4 billion, down 0.9 … Read More
New BoB? (Battle of Britain replaying in the Middle East) A report from our consigliere who is becoming very pessimistic about nukes remaining “holstered” for another month. When you read his briefing, you’ll understand why: “The NEW “Battle of Britain” is taking place RIGHT NOW in the skies over Israel and over Iran … but to … Read More
Let’s do the graphics story first. I told you iet rained this week? Lots? What Oilman2 calls a “Texas Frog Floater?” Here’s how to have a flood on the side of our mountain. Step out to the welding table where an antenna project was in progress (before the rains hit). Right at the foot of the … Read More