My friend Robin Landry (site) has been managing money for people for about 40-years now. When I blew out of my long position in the markets a 8-days ago, he advised me to be patient.
“Markets climb a ‘Wall of Worry’ most times…”
I knew it to be true and it wasn’t the first time I’d heard it. Still, I stewed and fretted a good bit when the market opened up strongly Monday and it didn’t take but an hour, or so, before I had jumped in long, again. But, as world events and our Global Index guide us, we may be back to cash as early as the extended hours session today.
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Not that being in cash for the week I was “out” hurt. We snagged enough money to buy hundreds of hamburgers – a kind of alternative currency I keep track of. (Unlike BTCs, at least for their first 4-minutes of life, hamburgers do have some utility value…)
Robin happens to be one of the world’s experts in Elliott Wave theory. There are others – I think everyone knows Bob Prechter at Elliott Wave International. Some people have a real eye for it.
Point is: There is a strong case to be made – and it’s seen in several of the charts I keep on the www.peoplenomics.com side of things – that the market can zoom much, much higher. But our aggregation work offers another view. As of this morning, the US oscillator has crossed above the Global which in our view is notable. Possibly quite bullish, but we’ll see how the week works out.
An hour to the open futures were down 57, but after a run of 183 yesterday, some people may take profits and slink off for a while.
I tend to be more of a trader than investor. Although I’ve never asked, I expect Robin has long-term gains at tax time. I virtually never do and, if anything, my biggest paperwork headache is the Wash Sale rules. (A few years back I was labeled a “pattern day trader.”) You get to pick your own style, though trading is more work and in studies, about equal if you’re good at it, though disastrous if you’re bad.
I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating again: The markets have a little something for everyone: I like the Wild West Casino of day trading, or maybe being in something for a few weeks to a month. Others are much more strategic: Their idea of a good time is playing the longer-term (and larger) wave counts and ignoring the little bumps along the way.
For what it’s worth, you can make pretty good money, either way.
With many “modern” employers turning a ‘blind eye’ to employee’s casually surfing the web for things like checking social media accounts, I can’t imagine that people wouldn’t be spending 10-times as much effort trading a small grubstake in the markets.
Except for one thing: Average people are stupid.
It’s what keep’s ;em average.
In the Bigger Scheme of Life (BSL), people get up, go fight traffic, work too long, fight their way home, and then sit around and bitch to their partners about it. All the while, compulsively checking Tinder or FB or whatever for new “friends” and “likes.”
With technology on our phones to trade – and learn to become expert traders and investors – I am dumb-struck at people’s behavior.
Average people seem to wake up to the roar of the markets right around their tippy-top. That’s what happened in 1929.
With perhaps a year – and maybe longer – to a possible blow-off upside top, it’s not too late, as we see it, to dump “social” for “financial” if you must run up data charges.
Sadly, we already know what the “average” decision will be.
Data For Grown-ups
Three items hold our attention today.
One is the report out of South Korea’s Yonhap news agency that a couple of additional U.S. aircraft carriers are on the mosey toward waters off the Koreas. This comes as Kid Korea is threatening missiles and bluster at every turn including “nuclear war could come at any minute.”
We modestly suggest he check his homeowners policy.
Item #2 this morning is the Housing Start report from Census just out:
“Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,260,000. This is 3.6 percent (±2.8 percent) above the revised February rate of 1,216,000 and is 17.0 percent (±1.2 percent) above the March 2016 rate of 1,077,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 823,000; this is 1.1 percent (±1.9 percent)* below the revised February figure of 832,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 401,000 in March.
Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 6.8 percent (±12.5 percent)* below the revised February estimate of 1,303,000, but is 9.2 percent (±9.1 percent) above the March 2016 rate of 1,113,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 821,000; this is 6.2 percent (±10.0 percent)* below the revised February figure of 875,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 385,000.
Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,205,000. This is 3.2 percent (±13.5 percent)* above the revised February estimate of 1,168,000 and is 13.4 percent (±16.2 percent)* above the March 2016 rate of 1,063,000. Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 819,000; this is 7.9 percent (±12.9 percent)* above the revised February rate of 759,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 374,000.
Graphically:
Item #3 this morning is the Fed Industrial Capacity and Utilization Report which comes out shortly. If it’s good, look for the market to get over any hesitation at the opening.
Another BREXIT Vote?
We see prime minister May has called for snap elections in the UK June 8th.
This comes as rival political hacks are trying to derail BREXIT and May isn’t standing for it.
It’s another clear example of how government (political hacks) will constantly try to rewrite the ‘will of people’ for corporate of personal gain.
What part of NO E.U. didn’t they get?
Buy American
President Trump is about to sign an executive order on “buying American” and using American workers on government projects.
It will also make it harder for American companies to hire foreign workers.
And since Amazon’s Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post, their coverage over here is interesting to read.
NY Times on Spicer
Have to admit, the NY Times seems to have it right when they take off after presidential spokes Sean Spicer on this lack of transparency that has started to tinge the Trump administration.
While I don’t buy the (BS) excuse, I give Spicer credit for doing his job.
Which is like being a mouse surrounded by a hundred hungry cats at the daily briefings.
Peasants Vs. City-States
A pretty good article by Damon Linker in The Week goes to some of our Outback thinking: “It’s not elites vs. populists. It’s cities vs. the countryside.”
It’s worth thinking about.
To put it in aeronautical terms, everything outside of “bravo airspace” really is “fly-over” country.
We don’t mind feeding ya’ll in the Big Cities, but we do mind feeding AND paying for largess and waste. Next time you buy a car, try driving to a small rural area and finding a dealer who doesn’t stick you for the whole local-option sales tax” for example.
Or, why should rural people who want to see a sporting event be screwed for additional hotel and food taxes? We do enough out here. Pay for your own stadiums without using public bonding authority, fer cryin’ out loud.
No…don’t get me started.
Hey Mr. Ure. I got a question. How can a Millennial get started trading to make a few bucks here and their and start getting a functional knowledge of the markets and economics? Thank you again sir!
great PN topic…. will write something up for tomorrow…
While George chases his tail, fumbling in the dark over interest rates, conventional macroecnomic theory, etc, this dude has already knocked it out of the ballpark!
http://www.elliottwave.com/Articles/2017/02/22/19/23/The-Myth-of-Shocks
http://www.socionomics.net/2017/01/socionomic-theory-of-finance-review/
Ravings of a non-subscriber – sheesh!
Who else went long week of Nov. 11th? Raise your hands?
Anyone besides us?
Milli,
One company specializing in “trade small, trade often” is one teaching risk and trading when the markets don’t have any general direction. Look up http://www.tastytrade.com online (they have many shows daily and educate through various topics).
The average person goes to work, makes some salary that doesn’t keep up with inflation, goes home and watches 4 hours of real housewives over two beers. On the weekend they wash their mortgaged car, hire someone else to cut the grass of their mortgaged house, then spend time in their mortgaged boat on the lake because “they deserve it.” They never watch the news (except sports) don’t read a newspaper and 80% of them will NEVER read another book after high school.
They have no savings (because they have no interest income) they have no retirement (because they have no Form 5498) their credit cards are maxed out, two car payments, and just moved up to a new construction $750k 4,500 sq ft house (for the two of them) because “they deserve it.” Remember – the tax guy sees everything.
They are two missed paychecks from bankruptcy.
And this is the new “average.”
And this is why our nation is in trouble.
The next crisis is probably already birthed, and it will be worse than anything seen before.
Sadly, for a lot of people, this is called ‘living in the USA.’ Many of us, though, and by that I mean MILLIONS didn’t get that ride, we don’t nor ever will own a $750k house, nor 2 new cars, nor a boatload of debt. We are downsizing and moving on, out of the BIG city into the country where a garden and chickens are calling our name. We remember our parents and grandparents living simpler times. We’ll be out here waiting on ya’ll when you finally get it figured out, and give away 75% of what you gathered in and are ready to let go of. We are experiencing a different kind of ‘free flying.’
Banks should, of course, not allow it. They do because their mission to keep inflation growing is to loan money into existence. Builders build using loans of their own on spec houses to sell to these folks. So, who should pay for it? The banks who are pushing the loan rules.
Credit cards and fractional reserve banking. Good for the overlords who skim fees off the transactions. Bad for citizens long-term. Would love to see 20% down loans and 3% interest mortgages. But instead, now one of my customers is known for its 28% car loans (subprime). And their loan paper is up this year. Lots more applications, more loans opened.
OR, CPA Prepper, they’re people that have gone down the prudent path, pay their bills off quickly and have money as a result, but also have relatives that KNOW they have money and those relative bring them down to their level. I know, believe me, I know.
PERSEC.
Nobody knows what I have.
Best advice Daddy ever gave me:
“Never miss an opportunity to shut up.”
Feel for you, Bill, all of us go through this at one time or another, but yes, there are some relatives who just won’t go away – they see you as their lifeline to live another day. It is a form of a blight…for one reason or another (lack of discipline, ego, truancy, poor upbringing, drugs, alcohol, abuse (family or stranger), lack of morals, etc.,) whatever it is that splits their path to maturity and independence will come back and sit on your front porch!
I was standing in my sister’s driveway, a woman walked up, turned out she is the neighborhood meth head, revised, redeemed, relapsing, not sure which stage, and she has 2 obama phones, but they are out of minutes, she has meth induced psychosis now and wanders the streets looking for money and rides, she has kids and family and that is what the ‘joy ride’ of drugs has done to her. This person is repeated endlessly all over America (and other countries) and yet still, drugs are glorified in the all manner of media, yet not one tv show or commercial day after day to drum into the little people’s heads how bad and destructive this drug epidemic is. There’s a cute little ditty video running on facebook about how little ole mari-wanna cures anxiety, depression, drug withdrawals (that’s a good one), etc., and as I watched it I said to myself, “a little spirituality in the form of self-respect and respect for others also STOPS addictions BEFORE they start, but we don’t want to talk about a strong and resilient character that is able to withstand the temptations of life and sirens of doom. Nope….just go on and get your little self addicted and use another drug to cure what ails ya! IF you live long enough, that is.
By any chance, Right on and on, did she happen to drive up until about six weeks ago a 2000 Honda Civic? One of those “little old ladies” took out our Expedition by driving right in front of us as we were getting up to 50 or so. T-boned her and totaled ours. She’d just gotten out on bail for theft that day. When I went over to look at her face down, unconscious body after the wreck (she did survive) I thought she was a teenager using her car for extra locker space. Turns out she was a 97lb, 53 year old living in her car. Her mug shot was pretty scary, too. Talk about walking/driving dead! Later on we’ve found out just how rare that type of Expedition is as we haven’t found one like it within 3 states radius of us yet – and it takes forever to get out of Texas! The business whose parking lot we wound up in gave us their hi-def video of the whole incident. Very revealing stuff.
Your best survival a sensory would be a shovel why you ask a shovel will help you dig and make a garden a shovel will help you bury your dead a shovel will help you bring water to your Camp from a spring a shovel used as a weapon you can use the shovel to dig a water well you can use a shovel to dig deep way deep down into the Earth and make a cavern that will keep you safe from bombardment from radiation and a whole host of other things that we haven’t even discovered yet yes my number one survival thing with be a shovel because I can dig down a trench about six feet down like a burial trich and bury people but I would use that trench to lay in and put a small thing over top of me a blanket and I would be warm in sub freezing weather big cars of these surroundings six feet down it’s not freezing down there
I like it when everything changes on a dime it’s like hey this is different exciting it’s not boring and it sure can be in Nevada I mean in Nevada okay we’ll try it again and tomatoes innovative finally got it right innovative
We dug underground forts when we were kids, so that is nothing new to us, shovel work. I keep several, they are one of my favorite toys.
Punctuation is actually very useful.
Your “driving out of town” strategy doesn’t work here in CA; what you pay is based on the zipcode you live in, not where you bought the car. And they just raised our sales tax by 1% to increase “safety” (i.e. cop & firefighter pensions).
I live in north central Illinois. The last time I asked at the dealership, sales of cars within 100 miles from a major airport have to pay a special Homeland Security tax. Most of the employees had no idea what I was talking about, but one of them checked, and verified that I was right. It’s probably in the really, really fine print at signing.
So George- if both another car and a move is in your future- buy before moving!
Also, if you buy a car at a dealership, used or new, they will get BOTH of your social security numbers to run them through the terrorist watch list and no fly list. Doesn’t matter if only one spouse is financing the car, you both get run.
RENTAL cars from what I can see…
George I can’t recall you ever doing this before but here we go there’s a lot of people out there that are senior citizens or becoming senior citizens that are punching into your website and they need help and what I would like for you to do this is do some research with your good at and all the Charities all the organizations all the tweeters all the locals that can help someone by just dialing on the telephone local radio stations like words where someone can post hey I need help can someone come here or I got a refrigerator I want to give away or I got a gun that I want to sell or hey I’m a mechanic and I need some work buddy got anything for me to do I’m a carpenter I’m a housekeeper I’m a caretaker there you go George now you’re opening your mind to more than just the stock market
yes it’s called craigslist
Georgeslist /daisymaeslist
Lol
Facebook, too, but I don’t “do” FB or Tweet. I sit and watch the wife go through it in the morning and just about anything you want to find is there. I viewed FB from the start as akin to dancing naked in the middle of the freeway at rush hour. Nevertheless, …
With a clothesline strung over the freeway with the dirty laundry on it….yes…
My primary view is the /ES (E-mini S&P Futures). It has a “tortion point” right at 2338.75 and it has been magnetic recently (including right now). It has to leave that behind in a quick mode before we know that things are heading higher.
It feels like it should go higher, and this is always the best time to buy if that were the case. For me, I sell OTM Puts so I like to make sure it is going up before doing that.
CNBC writing stories like this may or may not be any sort of signal but always entertaining.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/18/since-1990-market-gains-double-when-this-happens–and-it-just-did.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104410309&yptr=yahoo
Off topic but had to post it. Saw it on another blog…
“Kennedy put men on the moon, Obama put them in ladies rooms”.
In all honesty, i think the transgender issue and the corresponding bathroom-locker room questions it posed had just enough creepiness to it that it pushed many in the center to the Trump side.
Phew.. Average men are stupid.. Not necessarily being a bottom feeder and openly share my opinions.. Like the Senator I overheard saying.. tell them anything they are all dumb as sheep.. well the sad thing is we are as a whole we follow the crowd.. otherwise we the people as a mass would have woken up years ago and started to vote the dinosaurs into extinction and kept young men with curious minds in office especially with their overall bad work ethics and the fact that our legislative leaders haven’t done anything productive in over forty years they are still running on forty year old issues.. give me a break.. yes we are dumb as sheep.. But we didn’t and we don’t we let the money of the puppet masters to take control of our great nation to benefit a very select few instead of the many.
Now for me .. I quit a group years and years ago because according to them they said the same thing the average are stupid and put themselves on a pedestal because supposedly they were the brightest in the land, Which I thought was stupid.. the fact that we the members of the group seen patterns in the abstract or were willing to think outside the box isn’t necessarily smarter its just a different attention level. What they failed to realize is the majority of it is access and opportunity.
I have never gotten a formal education. I have challenged tests for the ability to take a class or two and I read more in one month than the average does in a lifetime.. but that doesn’t make me smarter.. I never worked at a higher rated position or gained wealth.. I didn’t have that paper hanging on a wall and I lacked the opportunity and swamped with medical bills and a family to feed. Now for stock purchases.. Years ago I scrapped and saved and picked up twenty five hundred dollars a friend of mine did the same thing.. we were going to buy stock in a little known company.. we begged to get someone to buy the shares for us.. and we were turned down repeatedly.. the company.. was Microsoft.. today I would be conservatively a very very wealthy man.. another one I tried to get was Cisco before it took off..
Now today.. you can make trades with your smart phone.. but.. then here is the opportunity.. many people are in the position they would love to have enough money to buy a few shares of stock .. but little baby billy needs his diapers and then there is formula.. oh daycare and college tuition.. which in many many households outpaces their income.. healthcare the list is pretty endless. Why do you think that Reagan and Bush etc etc.. had tax breaks and formed the EIC tax credit.. the wealthy don’t spend money and the average has to to survive.. that way they could acquire all the money saved by all the hard working men and women in the USA.. the eighties turned what use to be the housewife into a member of the work force by deregulation spurred prices up to the point where the average person without an opportunity finds it difficult to gamble his money the only way he can is through a 401 K.. or other retirement some aren’t even offered that and with a low enough wage won’t ever be able to.. Sure the stats show that everyone in our area makes between twenty five and fifty dollars an hour.. but realistically this is not true.. otherwise you wouldn’t hear all the controversy of the economy shutting down over an increase in the minimum wage to ten dollars an hour..
So No in my opinion the average person would love to have a few grand to gamble on the stock market.. unfortunately society and the economy has put them in their place…
here is a great book to read .. my opinion is if you can get three generations to become uneducated and ignorant you can enslave them .. a person that is informed and educated is more likely to be a free thinker and less likely to be enslaved by the puppet masters. Like the old way of thought school taught reading writing and arithmetic..if you read and keep informed from a variety of sources you will have a lesser chance of being bamboozled and controlled.. if you can add and subtract there is less chance of anyone taking advantage of you.. writing so that everyone will be able to understand your thoughts.
in the late seventies the average housewife stayed home while dad went to work. I made enough on less than two dollars an hour to support a family of four.. then the eighties hit,, it has been a down hill spiral ever since.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0881443182/sr=8-1/qid=1492602148/ref=olp_product_details?_encoding=UTF8&me=&qid=1492602148&sr=8-1
Americans won’t work for low wages…….
Better to recycle cans and live under a bridge than to toil in the sun a long, hot day and still not be able to afford food and lodging.
Legal and illegal immigrants, Hispanic, Asian, and Indian subcontinent, tap into ‘underground systems’ of food and lodging via familial, crime family, and other mercantile subculture systems catering to specific groups. They live far more cheaply than the individual American can, who has expectations of private space and belongings.
I have seen this first hand as an area near Atlanta, GA — Chamblee-Doraville — became a multi-cultural ‘haven’. I lived next door, and down the street, from both Asian and Hispanic houses with waaayyy too many people. Twice in three years I went out the back door to find a SWAT team in the yard of the Asian house next door.
A local restaurant owner on a section of Buford Hwy, who had been there as the area went multi-cultural, told me that many of the Asian restaurants and other establishments were involved in a slave trade of young women for sex, and staff of restaurants and nail salons. Massage parlor signs sprang up all over the area.
What had been a ‘clean and decent’ area to raise a family, that developed around the GM plant there, became a high-crime, multi-cultural haven as GM gradually closed down operations, and finally pulled out altogether.
Do you want your daughters involved in the sex trade, and your sons picking tomatoes, and all sleeping 8 to a room at night, and living on rice and beans?
THINK IT THROUGH!!! This is the REAL MEANING of Americans not being willing to work for low wages!
Im not afraid to say I can relate to the guy in this video.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5PsnxDQvQpw
Ouch. LOL.