As promised, a shorter column as I work on more “distillation of thinking” into higher purity trading.
Let’s see what happened to the War predicted for this weekend and see when it’s more likely to take place.
Mental Screen Shot
The Western press has lost another key learning opportunity in how to better report “the news.” The reason is editors and those who manipulate them, like to see “each story stand on its own. Which is bullshit. Stories in a world awash in complexity (not to mention Consumer Super Saturation) by definition cannot be meaningfully reported along a single thought axis.
Thus, as we have been mentioning for months, there is a tie-up between Chinese visions of the Future (taking of Taiwan back into the fold), the U.S. Neocon war-starters and defense-spenders, not to mention Russia which is trying to reunite Russian speaking peoples who were splintered with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989. Toss in God-knows how many Ukrainian nukes during the One Point Safe crisis window after the FSU collapse, and only then can the whole cloth be woven from this mess.
So, one step at a time with all the dots on one mental screenshot.
Hand of Xi
We’re pretty sure the “hand of Xi” is what held the world out of full-blown light-up this weekend. The earlier remarks by president Xi were echoed in the NYT ‘s China’s foreign minister calls for new negotiations and respect for ‘territorial integrity.’
Of course, what China is seriously marketing here is the same propaganda “phrase that pays” with their upcoming grab of Taiwan later this year. With Intel and TSMC both lighting up new chip plants in 2024, a Chinese move early would neuter the U.S. militarily while – at the same time – keeping their biggest trading partner on life support.
Once this happens (and the lefties closing SoCal ports to older trucks to create a good deal of the supply chain crisis) China will be able to transition U.S. trade off Treasury paper into something more solid: A market basket of energy, food, and strategic materials (of which, gold, platinum, and even lithium, are now part). Yu wan nah bet?
Xi is a delightfully complex leader to watch. He has core competences, but also enough “salesman” in him to know that “territorial integrity” is a universally appealing positioning statement which can’t be turned against China.
Queen’s Crud II
Again, in keeping with the Big Picture This, I’d strongly suggest you read G.A. Stewart’s piece today: TODAY IS THAT DAY.
As you know, Stu’s the leading contemporary Nostradamus decoder. And one of the keys to the predictions is the death of (a) Queen. n
We will not predict anything here, except to note the “statistics are in flux:” Queen Elizabeth II cancels virtual engagements due to cold-like symptoms after testing positive for COVID-19.
We certainly don’t wish anyone ill; but temporal markers may be very relevant.
Who’s the Senile Leader?
One of our ultra-observant readers noted (having read the Nosty senile leader framework):
“With the Russian “peacekeeping” force deployed to Ukraine after a rambling one-hour address by the Russian president is it possible that Putin is the prophesied “senile leader”? Something seems really off with his actions and behaviour of late and even his closest political allies look frightened….”
A hat-tip to “Winter” for the thought. I haven’t had time to review the transcript yet, but my sense is that Putin would likely be trying to “talk his own way through” an action that “bumps up against Xi’s wishes on the one hand, and which could with any miscalculation light off WW III,
Take out Joe Biden’s teleprompter and it would be an interesting match with Putin, though. Not one we’d buy a ticket for, however.
Joe looks a lot more out of touch with his country than Putin. As shown in Biden picks a BLM board member and CRT promoter to help with his SCOTUS pick. Biden’s working hard to bring back racism. Can we get back to excellence, please? Core competencies.
Rates Can Rock
One more item figuring into the whole Eastern Europe mess is how central banks (general case) and the US Fed (specifically) will maneuver a credible scapegoat into position in time to begin raising rates at the upcoming Fed meeting March 15-16. Three weeks off.
As the Economic Fractalist offered in an overnight comment, one way ahead for the Fed would be to get serious with their monetary policy. Remember what happened to Japan’s Nikkei when the BOJ moved back in 1989? We’re still not back.
“The offsetting countervailing problem to these further US central bank money creation strategies is that it will occur at the expense of the pyramid base of those who are the absolute essentials of the asset-debt macroeconomic system. The US working class are now being killed by the quantitative easing and near zero interest rate policy propelled consumer-priced inflation. Those are the real Americans who I served for 28 years in the US military to protect and the ones, who do their jobs every day, and whom I respect.
There is no good way out of this 1807 36/90/90 year: x/2.5x/2.5x US asset-debt macroeconomic system problem.”
We’re pretty sure president Xi is aware of this and – as a result – will have an economic path ready to set the U.S. on as we attempt to pass off more and more meaningless “currency” in return for hard goods.
The specific problem with Putin’s rollout of War Lite is that it doesn’t solve the technical crossroads for the market.
Could develop that a small continuation to the downside – with marginal new lows – might technically complete the Elliott 5th wave just a bit lower than the larger 3 down.
Seems to me that if you take all the data – and toss in a little lower than the larger 3 for a close today, that there would be room for a six-month to yearlong rally globally while financial engineers baling wire and chewing gum a story forward.
On the downside, if the Queen passes of CV, then that whole end of world thing opens up. Queens exit, NATO gets whipped into Ukraine, air power battle lights up, Putin takes back the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and a few NSNWs still come along.
Fortunately, lost the fish and chips bet, but a favorable exit from a short position may give us 4% gains in a week. Which we wish we could clone every week! (That pushes out to 768% per year by the way, and in reality? That ain’t happening!)
Back in a few minutes with the Case Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic housing data. Yes, home prices will be higher. Based on crazy money-printing. Homes don’t really go up – that’s the purchasing power of your money going DOWN so you need more of those to seal deals.
A forensic UFO tale tomorrow on Peoplenomics – and how UAPs could be a large deal when we do get to WW III.
And more here Thursday, of course.
Meantime, we’re pretty confident the UN Security Council sideshow on Ukraine will be the Mainstream’s hype du jour. China and Russia are both on the UNSC and either can veto. Why this is even out there is ludicrous. But you know how the media is: “We’ll find a story or make one up.” Similar to the Neocon’s “We’ll champion a war or start one…”
Give us a freaking break.
The New Digital World is slowly evolving. Truckers are making changes more than CONgress, here lately. “American truckers protest COVID-19 mandates with convoy | Las Vegas Review-Journal (reviewjournal.com)” Congress has become irrelevant – what’s that old saying? Oh yeah: Must be present to win.
This WHOLE CONGRESSIONAL WEEK is a “district work period.” My butt. Gladc-handers and fund raising. Put ’em all on eBay where they belong. Show the high bidders again, too, please. And include country.
ATR: Char Sui Tuesday
Every time I write forward-looking analysis on China, I get hungry for Chinese food later in the day. BBQ roast pork with dipping sauce and sesame seeds for an appetizer this afternoon. Then onto the main course, mu-shu pork and maybe a bottle of warmed Ozeki.
Cold weather is due back later in the week, then we’re ready to run the old tiller through the garden and see what comes up. Seeds on hot mats now for the veggie grow room.
Spent a little time this weekend optimizing “square foot gardening” and companion planting into something we expect will fill the summer salad bowls.
Write when you get rich,