War Lite? Hand of Xi, Queen’s Crud II, Rates Can Rock

As promised, a shorter column as I work on more “distillation of thinking” into higher purity trading.

Let’s see what happened to the War predicted for this weekend and see when it’s more likely to take place.

Mental Screen Shot

The Western press has lost another key learning opportunity in how to better report “the news.”  The reason is editors and those who manipulate them, like to see “each story stand on its own.  Which is bullshit.  Stories in a world awash in complexity (not to mention Consumer Super Saturation) by definition cannot be meaningfully reported along a single thought axis.

Thus, as we have been mentioning for months, there is a tie-up between Chinese visions of the Future (taking of Taiwan back into the fold), the U.S. Neocon war-starters and defense-spenders, not to mention Russia which is trying to reunite Russian speaking peoples who were splintered with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.  Toss in God-knows how many Ukrainian nukes during the One Point Safe crisis window after the FSU collapse, and only then can the whole cloth be woven from this mess.

So, one step at a time with all the dots on one mental screenshot.

Hand of Xi

We’re pretty sure the “hand of Xi” is what held the world out of full-blown light-up this weekend.  The earlier remarks by president Xi were echoed in the NYT ‘s China’s foreign minister calls for new negotiations and respect for ‘territorial integrity.’

Of course, what China is seriously marketing here is the same propaganda “phrase that pays” with their upcoming grab of Taiwan later this year.  With Intel and TSMC both lighting up new chip plants in 2024, a Chinese move early would neuter the U.S. militarily while – at the same time – keeping their biggest trading partner on life support.

Once this happens (and the lefties closing SoCal ports to older trucks to create a good deal of the supply chain crisis) China will be able to transition U.S. trade off Treasury paper into something more solid: A market basket of energy, food, and strategic materials (of which, gold, platinum, and even lithium, are now part). Yu wan nah bet?

Xi is a delightfully complex leader to watch. He has core competences, but also enough “salesman” in him to know that “territorial integrity” is a universally appealing positioning statement which can’t be turned against China.

Queen’s Crud II

Again, in keeping with the Big Picture This, I’d strongly suggest you read G.A. Stewart’s piece today:  TODAY IS THAT DAY.

As you know, Stu’s the leading contemporary Nostradamus decoder.  And one of the keys to the predictions is the death of (a) Queen.  n

We will not predict anything here, except to note the “statistics are in flux:” Queen Elizabeth II cancels virtual engagements due to cold-like symptoms after testing positive for COVID-19.

We certainly don’t wish anyone ill; but temporal markers may be very relevant.

Who’s the Senile Leader?

One of our ultra-observant readers noted (having read the Nosty senile leader framework):

“With the Russian “peacekeeping” force deployed to Ukraine after a rambling one-hour address by the Russian president is it possible that Putin is the prophesied “senile leader”? Something seems really off with his actions and behaviour of late and even his closest political allies look frightened….”

A hat-tip to “Winter” for the thought.  I haven’t had time to review the transcript yet, but my sense is that Putin would likely be trying to “talk his own way through” an action that “bumps up against Xi’s wishes on the one hand, and which could with any miscalculation light off WW III,

Take out Joe Biden’s teleprompter and it would be an interesting match with Putin, though.  Not one we’d buy a ticket for, however.

Joe looks a lot more out of touch with his country than Putin.  As shown in Biden picks a BLM board member and CRT promoter to help with his SCOTUS pick.  Biden’s working hard to bring back racism.  Can we get back to excellence, please?  Core competencies.

Rates Can Rock

One more item figuring into the whole Eastern Europe mess is how central banks (general case) and the US Fed (specifically) will maneuver a credible scapegoat into position in time to begin raising rates at the upcoming Fed meeting March 15-16.  Three weeks off.

As the Economic Fractalist offered in an overnight comment, one way ahead for the Fed would be to get serious with their monetary policy.  Remember what happened to Japan’s Nikkei when the BOJ moved back in 1989?  We’re still not back.

“The offsetting countervailing problem to these further US central bank money creation strategies is that it will occur at the expense of the pyramid base of those who are the absolute essentials of the asset-debt macroeconomic system. The US working class are now being killed by the quantitative easing and near zero interest rate policy propelled consumer-priced inflation. Those are the real Americans who I served for 28 years in the US military to protect and the ones, who do their jobs every day, and whom I respect.

There is no good way out of this 1807 36/90/90 year: x/2.5x/2.5x US asset-debt macroeconomic system problem.”

We’re pretty sure president Xi is aware of this and – as a result – will have an economic path ready to set the U.S. on as we attempt to pass off more and more meaningless “currency” in return for hard goods.

Meandering Markets?

The specific problem with Putin’s rollout of War Lite is that it doesn’t solve the technical crossroads for the market.

Could develop that a small continuation to the downside – with marginal new lows – might technically complete the Elliott 5th wave just a bit lower than the larger 3 down.

Seems to me that if you take all the data – and toss in a little lower than the larger 3 for a close today, that there would be room for a six-month to yearlong rally globally while financial engineers baling wire and chewing gum a story forward.

On the downside, if the Queen passes of CV, then that whole end of world thing opens up.  Queens exit, NATO gets whipped into Ukraine, air power battle lights up, Putin takes back the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and a few NSNWs still come along.

Fortunately, lost the fish and chips bet, but a favorable exit from a short position may give us 4% gains in a week.  Which we wish we could clone every week! (That pushes out to 768% per year by the way, and in reality?  That ain’t happening!)


Back in a few minutes with the Case Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic housing data.  Yes, home prices will be higher.  Based on crazy money-printing.  Homes don’t really go up – that’s the purchasing power of your money going DOWN so you need more of those to seal deals.

A forensic UFO tale tomorrow on Peoplenomics – and how UAPs could be a large deal when we do get to WW III.

And more here Thursday, of course.

Meantime, we’re pretty confident the UN Security Council sideshow on Ukraine will be the Mainstream’s hype du jour.  China and Russia are both on the UNSC and either can veto.  Why this is even out there is ludicrous. But you know how the media is:  “We’ll find a story or make one up.”  Similar to the Neocon’s “We’ll champion a war or start one…”

Give us a freaking break.

The New Digital World is slowly evolving.  Truckers are making changes more than CONgress, here lately.  “American truckers protest COVID-19 mandates with convoy | Las Vegas Review-Journal (reviewjournal.com)”  Congress has become irrelevant – what’s that old saying?  Oh yeah:  Must be present to win.

This WHOLE CONGRESSIONAL WEEK is a “district work period.”  My butt.  Gladc-handers and fund raising.  Put ’em all on eBay where they belong. Show the high bidders again, too, please. And include country.

ATR:  Char Sui Tuesday

Every time I write forward-looking analysis on China, I get hungry for Chinese food later in the day.  BBQ roast pork with dipping sauce and sesame seeds for an appetizer this afternoon.  Then onto the main course, mu-shu pork and maybe a bottle of warmed Ozeki.

Cold weather is due back later in the week, then we’re ready to run the old tiller through the garden and see what comes up.  Seeds on hot mats now for the veggie grow room.

Spent a little time this weekend optimizing “square foot gardening” and companion planting into something we expect will fill the summer salad bowls.

Write when you get rich,


37 thoughts on “War Lite? Hand of Xi, Queen’s Crud II, Rates Can Rock”

    Is a time zone specified? “Today” is already tomorrow somewhere.
    EST or DST? Sheesh!
    Did ya see where li-ions caused the fire on the Porsche cruise ship? I’m telling ya, when They throw the switch, your cell phone becomes a grenade, an EV becomes a bomb, and your solar back-up burns down your house.
    222 for UUU.

  2. Last night I watched Putin’s speech and, I doubt he’s the senile one.


    Sure, Putin is nervous. Hell, even JFK was nervous during the Cuban missile crisis.

    Wondering why Xi doesn’t just jump on Taiwan …. Maybe when this Ukraine thing popped up, he saw reasons to be patient because the game could change. Prudent chess players. US/China business hasn’t been honorable either. And I doubt China ever wants to be picked away at by NATO either, like Russia has been. When shit’s going down in the neighborhood, neighbors who don’t usually talk, start talking to each other.

    Meanwhile, Harris has shown her (lack of) Diplomacy skills. Wonder if she was briefed about the implications of what WWIII would be, before she went? Doesn’t seem she was.


    She says, “war in Europe.” Well, I’m just a simple guy but I think it would be far more reaching than that. But that just me.

    Wonder if TPTB have their shelves and freezers stocked in that rebuilding and reconstruction thing over the past 20 years. Strange, so many contractors but no beautiful cities to show. Hmmm

    Covid seems to be going away, kind of. That’s a good thing. – and I read this Jan. 10, 22 article about what happened in Rwanda back in 1994.
    Genocide, DNA … stuff like that …


    What a world :(

    • “She says, “war in Europe.” Well, I’m just a simple guy but I think it would be far more reaching than that. But that just me.”

      I am right with you Bob.. this sure does show that no one is truly evaluating the scope of this.. it has been almost two hundred years since there was a war on our soil’s .. the vast majority of us only think about our own luxuries not the implications of just what a war here would be like..
      taking care of people for decades.. I always was empathetic to them.. what I didn’t understand is .. just like a physician.. he has the book knoweledge but not the practical I have been there knoweledge.. so when someone comes in and tells them they are in pain.. he understands the pain by the documentation but doesn’t have the practical knoweledge from experience.. and he will go with the guidelines written..
      that is what happened to me.. I thought about my stubbing my toe or breaking a bone.. then when serious pain hit.. it dawned on me.. couldn’t lift a glass of water or wipe your own butt.. couldn’t walk etc.. I realized that all those years.. I didn’t have a dam clue.. and it really made sense on some of the lectures I had been to.. where the majority of GI bleeds comes from medical staff taking to much medication.. I myself realized that in that situation you will take anything and everything to get the comfort..
      We don’t know or have the practical life experiences to know what WAR within our borders would be like.. and from what she has said.. she like everyone else is expecting it to only be there not in her own back yard..

    • Watching you neighbors machete other neighbors screws you up? Who’d a thunk?
      You can worry about whatever conspiracy you can think up, but history shows that your neighbors are just as dangerous, if not more so.
      That reminds me. Gotta buy more JHP.

      • everyone is dangerous.. if they are forced in a corner and see no way out of it…. fear.. subconscious survival…

    • “Wondering why Xi doesn’t just jump on Taiwan”

      Ukraine is just lighting-up (or maybe not even.) The entire media still foists the Crimean lie. Granted, the two “new Countries” Putin “created” when Russia’s Duma “recognized” those regions of Ukraine as “independent States” only have a native Russian population around 70%, but in a “Democracy” that’s more than sufficient. If’fn the NATO allies like “democracies” so much, they’ve got to accept this (and STFU), and the “new Republics'” petition to Russia, for help.

      This is a game of diplomatic duplicity which WE have played since the 1950s. It is, IMO immoral. However, this provides a whole passel of grist for the popcorn mill as people like me sit back and see how the US State Department acts when our own tactics are used by someone else…

      Now, with that said, Xi and the ChiComs own a considerable amount of the infrastructure in Ukraine, due to crooked Ukrainian politicians paying themselves generous under-the-table bonuses instead of their belt-in-mouth obligations to China. I suspect Mr. Putin has already secured permission to remove any, or all of that Chinese infrastructure, at his pleasure.

      Xi hasn’t jumped on Taiwan because the Western militaries aren’t yet sufficiently involved in Eastern Ureope. With nearly 70% of the world’s end-to-end manufacturing, it took the U.S. about 7mos to retool, to crank up our war machine for WW-II. We are not now capable of fighting a two front war — even in a support capacity. If China is going to acquire Formosa, it will happen when we have 6 carrier groups in the Med — not two.

  3. Dude G ,
    its a matter of Maters dont ya know, screw the warmongers.You know Make Love, not War..Grab a Peace!

    Thoughts should be turning to mater matters – like maters love Carrots, make really good neighbors when grown next to each other. Best practices – the way of the mater starts with red solo cups wit holes in poked in bottom. 2 mater seeds per cup (safety backup seed) – only fill cup with 1/3 growing mix/soil. Set cup in tray – fill 1/3 way up with water, let soak, pour off excess water. Cover lightly, after 3rd set of leaves bust out, refill solo cups with grow mix up 3/4. Mater stems when covered with dirt will grow tons more roots – making for superior Mater plants.

    Digi Yuan is has been unleashed on slave population in Chynah during Olympics. The BIS slave token is almost here, only been working on this fiat life expectancy problem for 90 years or more..

    See Teachers Guide – Road To Roota “Wishes and Rainbows” cryptic comic book released by The Federal Reserve – Boston in 1981 . New revised edition posted by Boston Fed on jan 1st , 2007 . Bix Wier has the original material posted on his roadtoroota site.

    Been waiting at the station a loong many a yearz , still no train in sight – pitiful that..https://youtu.be/0QpjR6-Uuks….crank the vibe – feels good

  4. George: Any chance you’d care to share your square foot gardening and companion planting plans? Here a bit south of the Hotlanta airport I need to do the same. Gray Fox

  5. The Queen.

    Even though people say they want democracy or whatever they’re calling it. When that queen dies the people are going to overlook “Fortress Australia” and the (rumored) U.N. Peacekeepers in Canada.

    You’ll see American “conservatives”, whatever that is… buying dead Queen Flare.

  6. “A hat-tip to “Winter” for the thought. I haven’t had time to review the transcript yet, ”

    I watched the whole meeting live on RT.. it was very good ..

  7. “Biden’s working hard to bring back racism. Can we get back to excellence, please? Core competencies.”

    IT’s ALL ABOUT THE BUSINESS MODEL.. is there money in it.. that is how it will go.. or misdirection..

    “Congress has become irrelevant – what’s that old saying? Oh yeah: Must be present to win.”

    LOL can’t keep them from their spring break by making them come to work can you… LOL they have had a hard two days back it is high time they took off for another fact finding mission sponsored by the lobbyists…

    “Put ’em all on eBay where they belong.”

    Or on Youtube where they can give a nice emotional speech to no one at all exccept the voters.. many times I have thought they should give out academy awards for their acting abilities..

  8. I wrote this down in my journal last month and shared it with the family. Watch this space.
    The comment about the Queen brought it back. 2022 will see the passing of a Queen, The Pope, and a US President.
    It’s time for the world to move on. They all represent institutions and ideologies which have outlived their usefulness. IMHO of course.

  9. anyone that is interested in reading the prophecies of the kali Yuga..
    you can find them at holybooks or sacred texts…. I agree with those prophecies to.. Anymore the world is about the number and we tossed moral and ethical guidelines out of the majority of the homes..

    • All will remain clouded – who did the Sanskrit Translation ??? Although Krishnas return date is precise, as are Mayan time keeperz date =2024 new cycles.

      “They” have F-ed up over 95 % of ancient original teachings. Story goes the fine folks on the mission to Earth to spread that Philosophy, had there “base camp” at foot of Hymalayas, “NRGized” to pieces by “reptilian controlers” in silver shiny disk..same kinda disk that smoked Sodom & Gomorrah.
      Around 200 “forward deployed workers” zapped…Yes, those 200 + SOULS are still imprisoned here with the rest of Us clueless bastards (Human Herd). ?Will “Domain” ever mount a rescue mission for their peeps? See Farsight.org for dope on the “Domain” if interested.

      • “All will remain clouded – who did the Sanskrit Translation ???”

        EXACTLY ECU…….Just like all the other Holy books..
        How much was eliminated and how much extra was added to them.. the laws of the creator are short.. and full of meaning the other thousand plus pages is all crap added by the leaders of the people of the time to use as laws for their communities…. As an example.. look at our constitution and bill of rights.. then take a look at any libraries law section of how those laws were changed to fit where those that control want our communities to flow in a direction that is in the framework for their business models….

  10. Stewart
    My last name is German and means crumb or fine salt. We used to own the Bavarian salt mine a few generations ago. It is now owned and run by Germany. It is a pretty well known place. Just FYI.

  11. Mu-shu pork is very good with hoison sauce, although some prefer kum of sum yung guy as a condiment.

    It’s always fun to watch an old Charlie Chan film when eating Chinese food, as you can learn something from Mr. Chan every time.

    For example…

    “Bad alibi like dead fish. No can stand test of time.”

  12. “My last name is German and means crumb or fine salt. We used to own the Bavarian salt mine a few generations ago.”

    That is interesting..
    On one side of our family the members came the middle of the 1800’s on the other side they were here before the signing of the declaration.. anyway.. my sister was in Germany for almost fifteen years and while there went to a few old churches.. and they had our lineage all the way back to the fifteen hundreds.. they were brewmasters.. wine and beer..all the way back.. which our last name is derived from that.. It was then altered after my ancestors arrived in the USA because of the first world war and they didn’t want to be associated with the country of origin

    • In the book about Nostradamus, Stewart wrote about salt and an American Hero. I was just proposing a possible alternative name.

      But it is very interesting how names originate. Thanks for sharing. I enjoyed the read.

  13. George,

    I just read G.A. Stewart’s piece as you suggested. Maybe he will see this comment and also clarify.

    I am not understanding (see below) the meaning of online “hope.” Do you? Or could it be a typo? Maybe
    online hype?

    “There is a lot that comes with today. The whole world has changed and there is no going back. As readers can tell from my last Post, I have been monitoring the online hope after news outlets began reporting that some Russian troops were withdrawing from the Ukrainian border.”

    “I told readers what would happen. Once again my interpretations of Nostradamus’ prophecies have outpaced the Legacy News Media, the Alternative Media, and the pundits of both worlds.”

  14. Now that we have our “Emergency Measures Act” firmly in place here in Canada and property has been seized, bank counts frozen and people jailed, I wonder about what will happen with the American Truckers Convoy which is said to be on the way from California to Washington DC.

    Will these truckers be handcuffed and put in Washington jails along with the insurrectionists that have been rotting in jail since January 6, 2021 without bail? Will their supporters be tracked down (emails, texts, flight records) like those that attended the march to the Capitol grounds last year even if they did not go in the Capitol building?

    Just curious.

    • Teamsters have a long history of intolerance toward independent truckers who drive/deliver during a Union walkout. (Look up the Teamsters’ strikes of the 1950s and ’60s. Union members would shoot (as in, with rifles, from bridges) independent truckers who didn’t respect the strikers.) CONUS has approximately 4.2 million 18-wheel drivers. If the truckers experience the type of heavyhandedness displayed by Castreau, truck deliveries in the United States will cease. The Teamsters will walk out, and force the indies to also park their rigs. When military tankers stop in at the local depot for a refill, somebody will blow the tanks. Three days, and there’ll be 200mln of us sharpening the tines on our pitchforks.

      BTW, I’ll STILL be sittin’ back and eatin’ popcorn — not my dog, not my pony…

  15. George, (lefties ruined Port shipping/trucking?),
    90% of Canadian Truckers were already vaccinated, their real beef is about pay, working conditions, and there is an 80k shortage of truckers:

    What really caused the Port problems (repeat after me, all problems are caused by Lefties and Democrats, never forget this dumbed down inept explanation to any problem!) was/is the lousy working conditions of the Truckers!!

    90% of Ottawa residents said it was time for truckers to go home:

    Except there’s not an 80k shortage of truckers, most trucking companies had a 92% turnover rate (due to lousy pay/conditions), millions of Class A and Class B commercial drivers choose not to work…duh Homer can you guess why?

    btw George many more birthdays to you ‘Just Keep Truckin On’ (Truckin’), thanks for sharing your long strange trip with the rest of us!

    Grateful Dead, ‘Truckin’

  16. Have you seen some of the headlines, “stocks plunge”. A bunch of drama queens.

    What will be the headlines when lock limit down days arrive? “unprecedented + bankruptcies” will be some of the words.

    I’d say the Uke has been lost. Recall the Hong Kong slogan, “We’ll never forget you.” An off-shoot was used for 911. Most slogans are reused.

    Russia cleverly partnered w/China to pull a reverse containment policy on the West.

  17. Seems to me that if you take all the data – and toss in a little lower than the larger 3 for a close today, that there would be room for a six-month to yearlong rally globally while financial engineers baling wire and chewing gum a story forward.

    Makes most sense Elliot wise. Then would be a real wave 5 before the real collapse.

  18. It might be worth keeping in mind that the grass is not necessarily greener on the other side of the world. Things continue to deteriorate in Hong Kong with a covid19 wave 5. Probably not the news that next-door-neighbor Mr. Xi wanted to hear. This is Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam’s non-indexed press release with media on Tuesday. The chinese version offers more complete information than the english one.

    Here’s a taste of HK fresh food supply from the Mainland figures. Fresh veggie deliveries appear to have been running at mostly less than normal levels (30%-90%) scanning through the last 2 weeks of data due to some preliminary positive covid test results for truckers at the Mainland border checkpoint.



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