Two-Part Tuesday

Hold the hash browns!  Our column this morning is the monthly two-parter because this is  when the monthly Case Shiller/S&P/Dow Jones (and whoever else) Housing numbers come in, so look for an update about 20-minutes past the hour when these come out and we get a chance to pencil out what it means.

While you’re sipping the burntbucks and waiting for the bean rush, the other Big Deal du jour is that this is the day of the average annual market high.

Yesterday, as expected, the S&P zoomed up to 2,001.95.  BUT the wimpy damn market couldn’t hold it, so maybe today or tomorrow…we’ll have to wait for the open.  And some of that may depend on the housing data.  Which I’m guessing will be good.

The NASDAQ composite also hit a new 52-week high (4,571.14) but again, wimped out at the close.

The futures are showing small gains in the pre-open, but like I said, a lot will depend on how the housing numbers look and some of the other data due out this week.

Durable Goods, for example, is just out: HUGE INCREASE…

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July
increased $55.3 billion or 22.6 percent to $300.1 billion,
the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase,
up five of the last six months, was at the highest level
since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in
1992, and followed a 2.7 percent June increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.8
percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 24.9
Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six
months, drove the increase, $56.6 billion or 74.2 percent
to $133.0 billion.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up
five of the last six months, increased $8.0 billion or 3.3
percent to $248.9 billion. This was at the highest level
since the series was first published on a NAICS basis
and followed a 1.2 percent June increase.
Transportation equipment, up two consecutive months,
led the increase, $5.6 billion or 7.9 percent to $76.3
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in
July, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased
$59.2 billion or 5.4 percent to $1,158.5 billion. This was
at the highest level since the series was first published on
a NAICS basis and followed a 1.0 percent June increase.
Transportation equipment, up ten of the last eleven
months, led the increase, $56.7 billion or 8.3 percent to
$738.4 billion.

As usual, we are seeing a bubbly market ahead of the holiday weekend.  After what could be a pop today and into tomorrow, by the end of the week, there could be some selling develop, which is the kind of holiday pattern to look for.  T?hree days of risk, instead of two, lead the big players to wet their pants.  They lighten up.

That leaves only the problem of how this fall will work out, but remember crashes never develop at tops.  This market could drop a thousand points before things would get even remotely interesting to us perrmabears.

So bring on the BBQ sauce…looks like we’re going to make it through summer without the world ending.  That’s what our Peoplenomics Trading Model has been saying for a couple of years… It has been consistently long in the face of my gnashing and bashing and it makes me crazy because I just know that the markets are going to collapse from internal corruption.  But they don’t.

My own work jeers me, taunts me, and makes money while I stew and curse its damn accuracy so far.  I’m sure the DSM-V has a name for this: SBD: skeptical bear disease, but it’s going around.

Speaking of which:  One of our readers sent me a headline and asked me what I thought.

“Did you see “Gold, & Silver UP  Dramatically As Citi Sells USD Positions Fearing Squeeze”???  What do you think?”

WTF?  I was the wrong guy to ask:  (language alert, Ure got pissed)

Are you shitting me?  Who writes this load of crap (or for that matter) reads it???

Gold and silver haven’t “jumped dramatically” at all…gold was up to $1320 a couple of weeks back and silver was over $21.

I looked this morning when I got your email – expecting to be a zillionaire based on the headline and what?  Gold was languishing $1,277 and silver?  Sucking wind at $19.42  ($1,286 this morning and I’m still not a zillionaire.)

My point?  Don’t be a frigging idiot – follow PRICES NOT HEADLINES.  Sheep and fools get led around by 72-point type….jeez Louise…”

I was going to CC: you on this, but I didn’t have your email handy, so I thought I would mention it in the column instead.  Pardon the direct language.  And thanks to our reader for asking…it was a fair question, but even more, an important answer.

Absent a solid academic footing and years of research, the doom-porn and gold-touts are always trying to stir up buzz on the net with nonstop End of the World headlines. 

Bad news:  It’s all bullshit vying for your eyeballs so the prophets of doom can make a buck until their ship comes in.

Silver and gold aren’t going anywhere – yet.  And as I’ve held (seems like forever) when the other shoe drops in the economic long wave bottom, we’re more likely to break below $1,000 before we break $2,000 on gold.  And $15 before $30 on silver.  We are still in deflation and (pay attention to Janet, you idiot!) we’re not raising rates because we can’t because this is dead economy (locked in deflation) walking.

BTW: Draghi went to Janet School in Jackson Hole last week  and is now pimping printing in Europe.  Born-again pumper…oh, pardon, that’s pronounced economic stimulus and job creation.  In other words Print!

The whole game of the Fed is to print money like a sonovahbitch while massive deflation is whacking us and hope the resulting “modest price of living increase” fairytale holds long enough for the powersthatbe to whip up another war or get another FF op going so we can artificially stimulate the economy which is flat-lined.  Is this so hard to follow?  FMTT

Will that happen?


Not with all manufacturing trying to leave and foreign debt up the ying-yang and Yang Tse.

Get a grip.  Take a pill.  Move to Colorado or Washington, for crying out loud.  But please, for your own mental health, look at the goddamn data and try really hard to figure out who’s feeding you a diet of bullshit.  You’ll thank me some day.

Besides, even if you don’t, I can look the guy in the mirror when I shave.  (Though one of these days I may ask him what he’s doing in my bathroom….hmmm…)

More after this.


Very Short Takes

We’re flying surveillance over Syria.

Bet those cookie-bakers at the State Dept. will never admit Putin was on the right side from the get-go, will they?

Israel has bombed a terrorism bankster in Gaza, claim reports.,..

We’re taking bets on how much wine prices will be going up as a result of the CaliQuake this weekend.  Clever angle:  Bets are being made in bottles of wine into a pool.  Winner gets all the bottles and a six-pack of Excedrin.

Oh, and Arab nations have struck Libya where the Global /Caliphate is setting up it’s Western edge of empire.  The UAE and Saudis are getting worried:  Those fringe groups spawned in their deserts are about to get big enough to come back and take out the Western-friendly govs and then stuff will get interesting…

OH, stand by for the housing report, followed by Mr. Ure getting the rest of his good night’s sleep.

Am I a complete idiot for getting up at 2:30 AM to write these reports?  I think we both know the answer, but let’s pretend…shall we?

How the West Coast can live on this schedule, I have no idea…