I mentioned to you back in December that I had a “bad feeling” about what lay ahead around the second week of January. And, judging by the futures (as 6:30 AM Central) showing the Dow set to slide more than 300 points at the open, it could be coming to pass…we’ll just see how things unfold. Closer to the open down just 250.
Notwithstanding my fears about the next couple of weeks, we are getting another federal report card tomorrow on how the jobs market is rolling. This morning, we have two “preview” reports from the private sector: First is the ADP Employment report and then there’s the Challenger Job Cuts report. Taken as a whole, they give a sense of where we are on the economic side…
ROSELAND, N.J. – January 3, 2019 – Private sector employment increased by 271,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
Then we have the Challenge Job Cuts:
“CHICAGO, January 3, 2019 – While December was quieter than the previous three months, as employers at U.S.-based companies announced plans to cut 43,884 workers from their payrolls during the month, the year-to-date total is nearly 29 percent higher than last year and the highest total since 2015, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
In 2018, 538,659 job cuts were announced, 28.6 percent higher than the 418,770 announced in 2017. This is the highest annual total since 598,510 cuts were recorded in 2015, and the second-highest total since 2011, when 606,082 cuts were announced.
During the final quarter of the year, employers announced 172,601 job cuts, 42.8 percent higher than the 120,879 recorded in the third quarter and 77.4 percent higher than the 97,292 announced in the same quarter last year. This is the highest quarterly total since the first quarter of 2016, when 180,920 cuts were announced
Now the important stuff: Look at the Year-On-Year data:
And, as much as we liked the Trump bull market, our data suggests it “left the building” in mid October 2018. Unless a political miracle happens, we are currently expecting one of those lefty-leaning democrats of the FDR type to pop up for 2020 and war then by (my consigliere’s target date) 2024.
Already, our military affairs expect (“warhammer”) notes the recent Chinese chest-beating over Taiwan is not unlike the demonizing Hitler engaged in prior to marching into the Sudetenland. (Yes, of course history rhymes!)
We think that the truly far-sighted families will be looking at things like upper level average wind patterns and what upwind from where they live now while there’s plenty of time to move to potential areas of lesser impact.
If the jobs picture isn’t all that bad – and still actually very good from an historical perspective, what is it that has markets so damn riled-up?
I mean besides Apple issuing a rare drop in forward sales guidance?
Washington: The Idiots Are Back
As Grabien News is explaining, here comes the “Green New Deal” to seize all kinds of government power. “‘Ocasio-Cortez sees this plan is being a vehicle through which social equality might finally realized, as it will use reparations to right historical injustices’”
Ever notice no one points out there are lazy people and there are hard workers and that’s often confused with discrimination?
As we have feared, the radical leftists are proposing that to fix past ills, they (and they judge who they are) have some self-proclaimed right to steal; from others. Not that I’ve seen under the Constitution…
The Ure view is ridiculously simple: Reverse discrimination is as evil as forward discrimination. Both fly in the face of America’s long tradition of working toward a truly egalitarian society.
“Social Justice” is a freeloader’s claim on the hard work of others. Nothing more and nothing less. It’s thievery dressed up in politically-correct clothing and sold to dim-witted phone-addicts brought-up on a diet of left-leaning curriculum for 50 years. Sheesh… Reap and Sow 101, kiddies.
Justice is supposed to be “blind” – meaning exactly equal to all. Gender justice and other mental constructs of the academia? You can’t be serious…
Zeus the Cat is parading around the office this morning campaigning for Cat Justice, too… I explained to him that “fat cats don’t mouse…” Hunger is closely related to drive and powers work. But he doesn’t seem to track. Meanwhile, Aging people face discrimination, too, but where are the socialists on this?…Good grief…when is National Pickle week? (near the end of May BTW).
Here’s Ure’s prediction: With the democrats back in control of the House, you can expect large tax increases next year to further dig into your meager disposable income. I’ll remind you in a year, or so…
Oh, and the “Our way or the highway” (and hand over your wallet) people are bent on attacking conservatives in most unsavory ways are we read in “Michael Savage, facing death threats, heads to secret location.”
Same Bolsheviks, but new & improved with cell phones to map the Molotov’s and social media to inflame… I did mention social media is a weapon of mass destruction, right?
More gently revealed for the sensitive sheep among us in Socialism Rising: Dems take House pushing massive government expansion, as party lurches left.
Other Smatterings of Reality
Who’s got a ticket to ride? GM’s U.S. new vehicle sales fall 2.7 percent in fourth quarter.
Been thinking about the border and the flow about illegal aliens: Do we want South America-style politics coming here? Go read “Mexican mayor gunned down during his first day in office.” It’s not an impertinent question…just one the open-border agenda people don’t want to talk about.
And the US has lost the moon, now. China Moon mission lands Chang’e-4 spacecraft on far side. The moon’s 14-million square miles dwarf’s China’s earthly land mass of 3.7 million square miles. just so’s you know…
OK, after the jobs data, futures showed the Dow down around 270 at the open so I’m off to chase chickens and pigs around the plate…moron the ‘morrow..