Breaking: Weekly Unemployment Data
Just out from Labor:
“In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,508,000, a decrease of 58,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 24,000 from 1,542,000 to 1,566,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,773,500, a decrease of 234,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
The previous week’s average was revised up by 6,000 from 2,002,000 to 2,008,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 14.1 percent for the week ending June 6, unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate.”
Markets were down modest (Dow futures -226) after the data.
Trumps Enemies List: B.B.B.T.
Hard times to be an American. We seem to have moved into an “Age of Perpetual Crisis.”
To help you navigate the practicalities of the times – and to reduce your stress levels – we spend some time today considering Donald Trumps “enemies list.” When you’ve studied it, we think you’ll agree with our conclusions.
B. is for “Bolton”
John Bolton is on Donald Trump’s shit-list. Because in his new book – published over objections of “national security” – Bolton’s characterizations of Trump are less than favorable. Some examples?
- Trump administration sues over new Bolton book, claiming it contains classified information, reports CBS.
- on book bombshells: Trump asked China’s Xi for reelection help and told him to keep building concentration camps, rolls CNN.
- Says, says Fortune, John Bolton’s new book claims Trump sought Xi Jinping’s help to win 2020 election.
While there’s something to be said for John Bolton as a “neocon” when comes to foreign policy, there’s a critical aspect of government service to be remembered: People at this level do tend to tell the “Truth.” But, the wild-cards are in the selection of “truths” and how they are shaded to a narrative. Therein disputes arise.
Trump and Bolton are, in our view, never “getting back together again.”
B. is for “Biden”
Trump’s next enemy is Joe Biden. In many ways, the upcoming presidential contest has all the aspects of an Aesop Fable. Tortoise and the Hare, I believe.
Trump is unquestionable a hare. Living on too little sleep and a decided bent toward ADHD (and related) compulsive-impulsive behaviors.
Biden, on the other hand, is tortoise-like. He’s put in his time on “the Hill” and he knows all the players. He also knows where a lot of the “skeletons in the closet” are buried. (He may have even had a hand in some – thinking Ukraine, here.
The Tortoise and Hare also fits in a sports-coaching sense: Biden is a “team player” and has taken “several for the team.” Trump hasn’t. His players (in a coaching analogy) are all pretty-much on their own when things go badly. As a result, Trump’s team keeps bringing on star “athletes” and then having them leave – pissed at “the coaching staff.”
Sure, we have (and will) continue to make references to “Slow Joe.” But, we’re becoming keenly aware that Biden may have accidentally fallen into the Zen of America today: More is done by doing less. And the most is sometimes accomplished by doing nothing.
Biden’s use of tweets is a fine example.
Bottom line? Biden doesn’t need to “run” anymore. He can walk. He’s got a secret weapon; which is?
B. is for “Bureaucracy”
In this area, I’ve got a lot of experience, having seen how bureaucracies work from the “inside-out.”
People not familiar with government are easily fed simplistic notions of “The Deep State.” While in Reality, there are on bureaucracies and processes. They can be played like fiddles or (in Trump’s case) drums.
“Process, process, process, George” our staff “bureaucracy bulldozer” explained to me back when I was running a vocational college. “If we want something done by “The Department”, we call our D.C. law firm. They will send someone right over to “The Department” and walk-it-through for us.”
You see, when there are Great Powers delegated to Great Bureaucracies, spontaneous Great Monetizations arise.
It’s how the whole D.C. Law Firm cluster evolved. There’s nothing “illegal about it.” At least in the strictest sense. All the work gets done , in the end. But those who have their “Department” paper “walked-through” – or because of personal connections can walk-it-through themselves – will always get faster, better, more predictable outcomes from government than, oh, “ADHD set and forget” people. (Ahem…)
T. is for “Trump”
Yeah, sorry to report that Donald Trump may be Donald Trump’s worst enemy.
Because in each of the examples above, Trump’s personal style is conflicted. He’s not a “smooth people person” as the parade of “former officials” from his administration attests. Jack-hammer and chainsaw management? That’s a style?
Military leaders often become (even accidentally) some of the best managers around. Because they learn through the realities of Life that “You’re only as successful as your Supply Officer.”
If the supply officer is great, all things will be readily at hand. Never run out of toilet paper, top-notch food, and the war-fighting hardware always at peak performance with plentiful spares.
A bad supply officer is the nightmare. Perpetual shortages, high turnover. A good command at some level, but lacking great chow or spares for the field…
When I read-between-the-lines of the Trump administration, I see a “general” who is a “one man army.” Not able to build a fierce team to be reckoned-with.
See if you catch the “secret sauce” in these organizations: “Force Recon” – “Delta Force” – “Rangers” – “SEALs.” And others… Keyword: “Team.”
Once-upon-a-time, conservative, small-business-friendly America had lots of this “team spirit.” But Trump – whose ego is arguably larger than Manhattan – has not once be able to introduce – and then let run – any up-and-comers in his own Party.
Which, understand, is it’s own process-oriented bureaucracy.. Except the chairs are have different names. Checkboxes. House and Senate committees, a major coalition of supporters.
Seriously: If Trump were to keel over tomorrow from (pick one) [a] hyper-activity, [b] exposure to CV-19, or [c] a stress reaction to yet-another-impeachment drive likely to arise from the Bolton book claims…. WHO would the GOP run against Slow Joe?
It would be a freakin free-for-all. Not Romney (God help us), Mitch? Kidding, right?
No, the serious management appraisal (which is what elections are, at least in theory) is that Trump has pissed off most of his key “Big Name” players. Big name players leave quickly (Tillerson, Mattiss, etc.) and walk-on’s are trying to “make it work.”
This is a longish discussion, but I won’t apologize. We are – as of today fractally – at precisely the time where a huge melt-down of America could begin.
We were not led into the CV-19 mess by any particular genius. Nor are we being led out of it in like manner. Going back to work too early? The timing is questionable since here in Texas we are hitting record new CV19 hospitalization cases daily. We’ve consistently said this is a medical situation, not a political one.
Our Future is About National Management Styles
A good manager is schooled in many things. Not the least of which are the Big Three of managing People.
- Give assignments that have measurable outcomes.
- Delegate responsibility and the authority to achieve the assignment.
- And most importantly, reward, honor, and promote from within, those people who have become rock-stars on your watch.
Thus, our most-damning assessment of “Coach Trump” comes down to just this:
“Tell us coach, about some of Great Players who’ve come up on your team and been promoted?”
Because I run a pretty “straight down the middle” one-man news site here, I rely on data, data, and more data. Which I then slice and sort using an assortment of software tools. One of which through this in my face today.
We have a coaching problem. We have a marketing problem.
Sure there is a “deep state” – at the State Department and Pentagon. But mostly, we simply have a “monetization” built on law firms “walking things through” and of all the simple things to fix… But what we have works. It’s the runaways that kill.
Now, we can’t be too sure what’s going on. Or, what the last act will be. Since the Durham grand jury has been so quiet.. Perhaps attorney general Wm. Barr is a tortoise, too?
1929 RTS (Ready To Slide)?
We expect the NY Fed was out buying like mad overnight trying to keep the market from entering what could be a massive decline over the coming week, or so. As people “lose faith in the coach” and see the tortoise continuing to build on his poll numbers. And no Hall-of-Famers from the “brilliant coach.”
Our focus – just about every minute the market is open – is on these two green circled areas: The 1929 track on the left and present-day on the right:
Other than the Bolton book – and hysteria which will be whipped up to keep eyeballs on televisions to monetize the MainStream – CV-19 cases globally are over 8-million now and continuing to expand at nearly 100,000 cases per day. Which gets us to?
Urban’s Department of “Happy-Talk”
Smiley-face time, kiddies: “Beijing’s coronavirus outbreak is under control, Chinese health expert says.” Under control like, er…a controlled burn? Global body count is nearing 450-thousand and cases well-over 8-million.
Bubblicious: “Big Five” tech companies expand amid economic crisis. Speaking of tech…
Our Ounce of Prevention Paid-Off
My sense of “impeckerble” timing has paid off — again.
Remember, You can now reach UrbanSurvival without going through a DNS Server. Our IP addresses are:
Just remember when you use the numerical IP it will not be as safe as DNS with SSL.
Why chest thump? Well… DDOS attacks on DNSs are going wild. So Ure’s hunch was right-on. Notice the stories? See what Amazon Web Services announced? “AWS said it mitigated a 2.3 Tbps DDoS attack, the largest ever.”
Also garnering coverage in Forbes this week: “T-Mobile, Fortnite, Instagram, Comcast, And Chase Bank Have All Experienced Outages. Some Believe The U.S. Has Been Hit By Large-Scale DDoS Attack—Others Are Skeptical. (Updated).”
I can’t count the times my “gut has served me well” on decisions like this. June 5th we began to implement static IP access. June 13-14 the biggest DDoS attacks ever. (I may strain my arm patting myself on the back on this…)
W. Coast Quake Alert
With the coming of two eclipses in the next couple of weeks, we are starting to pay close attention to earthquake potential for a “Big One.” In particular, two just small temblors northeast of Bozo, Idaho struck us as out of the ordinary.
NOAA Scrubbing Solar Forecasts
We mentioned this before, but I can’t be sure: NOAA is planning to eliminate the predict.TXT file from the Solar Cycle Progression site here.
As you will recall, the “predicted values” (text file) had shown Earth entering an extended solar minimum with no return to increasing solar output until at least 2022. This is where the file switch from a .TXT format to a JSON format may be “hiding the sausage.”
What’s changed (and you can look at the new JSON file here) is that in this version of the model, the Sun doesn’t “go out” until 2037 – which is when the smoothed sunspot number drops below 1 from a 2025’ish high. Then it remains there (dead/out of commission as in Maunder) until at least 2040.
Now, compare this with the (save a copy while you can…) .TXT file here.
HUGE variances between the files. Like for December 2022 the .TXT file says expect 0.2 for a Sunspot number. June snowshoe output.
The JSON file has gaps in it – only every-other month predictions. Still in November 2022 the smoothed Sunspot number it calls for is 57.366 while the January 2023 number comes in at 63.443.
The Sun Matters
There are a couple of reasons to pay such close attention. First, if the sunspots are really coming back (wait, can you trust ANY of these forecasts?) is if you want to invest in solar energy or whoever owns the Coppertone brand, lately. Do you buy “climate change-sensitive stocks?”
Personally, I have this pile of (slowly being restored) tube-type ham gear . If the Sunspots are really coming back, I will move the restorations up the project priorities a bit. If not, HF comms will continue to be lousy. Right now, the low bands (80 and 40 meters) are fair at best during the day and 30-meters and up basically useless all the time. Kinda kills shortwave radios for preppers, too if the Sun was going into deep REM sleep. But, if the JSON file is right, we’ll, kiddies, shortwave will be alive.
Off to chase food…‘moron the ‘morrow, then…
Write when you get rich,