We open this week, as expected, with the markets set to open about flat. That much was fairly predictable.
What is NOT predictable is what will happen next. Well, except for the Gallup Consumer numbers this morning and the Fed-Speaks going on this week. Still, it’s all really just foreplay compared to the September 20-21 FOMC meeting coming up. And the IMF meeting with the World Bank Group starting October 7th.
Between here and there, we have options expiration – end of next week – and that should be interesting because at the end of options week last month (Aug) the S&P 500 closed around the 2,184 level and even if the S&P were to add four points today, we would still have a zero-gain month at this point. Toss in some really spikey highs in our indicators on the Peoplenomics.com side of the house and historical data that shows September is usually weak, and a case for some concern builds.
Still there are many ways to look at data. One school of though would anticipate the S&P declining to “send a message to the Fed.” Not that they will pay attention, though, since this is an election year – and I don’t care what kind of analytical “insights” are claimed, the Fed moving up rates prior to the finalization of the Clinton purchase of the office – just doesn’t seem to me to be in the cards.
That will set up a last-gasp (when the expected anointing takes place with the supervision/help of DHS election “help”) rally which could take us into the first part of next year.
Even a Trump win would not change the track appreciably. Reason? Well, Trump is a numbers guy and he knows full-well that economic change takes time and the time to make changes is in the first six months of a presidency. After that, it’s all down hill until the re-election cycle starts up. Trump knows there’s no free lunch, too.
And that gets us to the longer view of things.
I am personally short the market, yet our indicators reported on Peoplenomics are saying long is OK in here. Hell of a think to build a decision-tool and then ignore it. But the data in the model is based on actual data projecting trend channels and such off that. Sure, a spoonful of Elliott wave theory, too. But the eyes see things the numbers miss.
For example, did you see the report this morning? CBS has an interesting piece on how food prices have come down. Nice and all, yeah. But it won’t be around forever – so says a BBC report over here that goes into details of what what goes down tends to come back up again.
As luck (or financial engineering) would have it, the drop in food prices means that those of us on Social Security can expect approximately zero in the way of increases with this year’s adjustment. With increases in medication expenses such as the supplementation insurance not covered by Medicare – likely to go up 30-50% this coming year – and why is is property taxes keep going up even when frozen for oldsters? – we think the best most grays (like us) will be able to look forward to is a slow-motion flush.
Next Year’s Bump
Speaking of health care costs, here are a couple of headlines that will make you wonder if they’re talking about the same thing:
Out of the Washington (*Amazon) Post: “What Obamacare’s Successes Should Tell Us About Its Failures.”
Which reads as quite a contrast to “Obamacare insurance on verge of collapse.”
Listening to the stories over coming months will be interesting and in Google Trends, we expect to see a huge jump in Obamacare searches, but not until after the election.
Funny how that’s likely to work out, ain’t?
War on the Philippines?
The president of the Philippines referred to president Obama as a ‘son of a whore’ which got Rodrigo Duterte out of meeting with our Golfer in Chief.
What’s clear to those in a stand-off position is that the Philippines is another “next target” for militant jihadists and (as is often the case) the money for that comes from drugs and such.
The Philippines has a domestic drug war going – and the US (which we note has failed miserably and can’t even secure our own border with South American drug supplies) is trying to shove advice at the former US colony. They’re not buying.
There are bigger fish to fry, though than drugs and jihadists – and that includes the new Chinese-built “islands” springing up in the South China Sea.
Oh…one more thing: The nest of neocons at State that brought us (and is still working protests in Ukraine as Ukrainians besiege ‘pro-Russian’ Inter TV building) is shifting focus to SE Asia. Which means we can look forward to more policy disasters in that part of the world in future years if past performances in places like Egypt, Libya, Syria, Turkey, and the balance of the Sand Box are any indication.
One of the better versions of that Ukraine story, which you should consider is “‘Arson’ At TV Station Underscores Threat To Free Speech In Ukraine.”
It’s wryronic that on the one hand Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty seem to be able to see through the smoke and mirrors to stifle free speech while the Globalist stooges keep trying to put a media lid on discussion so they can strong-arm the civilian population. They operate the financial slaughterhouse for the bankster class, as everyone knows. Which is why the globalist/neocons are batting (at last check) something like zero for 10, or so. Hat tip to RFE and RL for calling it fair and square.
Awe, but no health issues, allergies of course, so just do what you’re paid to do and move along.
Passings: Phyllis Schlafly
And while the liberalista can dish it out, they don’t seem to be able to take it well as their celebration of Schlafly’s passing is labeled “Disgraceful: Twitter Users Mock Phyllis Schlafly, Celebrate Her Death.”
Seems someone missed the do unto others lesson.
We have to note that had any other group acted this way it would have been labeled terrorism, so why not for them?
The story seems (as of press time) has been effectively firewalled from the US public by the liberal media control vectors.
If you take a wide definition of terrorism as deliberately disrupting the lives and activities of civilians who aren’t partisans, where does that terrorism line start? Violence and intimidation of any sort, seems to me.
I don’t know who Gallup is talking to, but thjey report this today:
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans’ ratings of their standard of living have increased since President Barack Obama took office in 2009, with the Gallup Standard of Living Index rising steadily for the past 7 ½ years.
That kind of story – plus a butt load of cash – is why Hillary will win. And it’s why the Dow futures are up 14-points ahead of the open.
Nice tdo be back, ain’t it?