Most people still don’t get it.  Let me sniff the white board marker a bit and lay it out for you.

There are lots of stories around about the future of the minimum wage lately.  Take this one which appears on the Dallas News site about what it could do for your city.

Meantime, “Sky is Falling!” Media is warning of $30 pizzas if the minimum wage goes up and yada, yada, yada.

Time for a little economic reality:  If you don’t love wage hikes, you must love economic Depressions.

The big game, as least as it stitches together from out here in the woods, goes something like this:

  • Bang on interest rates to get them to come down (check, done.)
  • When rates come down, hold them there long enough to refinance the national debt at something approaching 2% interest, or less (in process, check.)
  • Once the rates are down on the national debt, raise the minimum wage for some federal workers and promote the bejeezus out of it so a few cities will adopt it.  (in process, check.)
  • Now, begin to raise central bank (federal reserve) interest rates. (next month)
  • The generally rise of wages will offset the cost of living increases that will come with the Fed rise (we’ll see, but this is why crack head economics is such a fun sport).
  • As wage pressures rise, bond yields will have to rise and Net Present Values of bonds will decline (see Coping section rant to follow).
  • The money from rising wages coupled with disintermediation from bonds, will drive a stock market bubble.
  • When the stock market bubble that no one expects takes place, cash in the gains the insiders will have made and go massively short.
  • Then collapse the market wiping out the savers who made it past 2009’s collapse.
  • Then, buy up all the collapsed assets for pennies on the dollar (Ure’s truly may upgrade his home and airplane in here) and then start a march to War.
  • The war planning and build out, along with robotic frenzy, and not to mention the already existing analog to the old Civilian  Conservation Corp (which is now AmeriCorps) will be well ensconced and ready to put people to work on infrastructure.  Just like we “got it on the cheap” during the last Depression, we will get thing “on the cheap” in the Depression of 2018/

In  the meantime, the financial charlatans will mislead everyone, which will help reduce assets of average Americans because we know that a good depression involves two things:

You can’t have a Depression that simply destroys debt.  It will – by definition – destroy savings as well.  Who do you think bankrolls debt, if not savers?

You see, this is the big picture stuff that no one likes to talk about because it’s really all in your face and the scare talk about the minimum wage is just another way to keep bond values high and prevent the flushing of large NPV’s into things like R&D, Research, Infrastructure, and long-term  plant and equipment – like the stuff we will need for the 2025 wars.

If you want to be scared about this fall, you’re welcome to be.  In fact, thank you.

Allow me to introduce myself.

My name is “The Counterparty.”

Housing Data

Hot off the press release:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,119,000.  This is 16.3 percent (±1.1%) below the revised June rate of 1,337,000, but is 7.5 percent (±1.4%) above the July 2014 estimate of 1,041,000.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 679,000; this is 1.9 percent (±1.0%) below the revised June figure of 692,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 412,000 in July.
HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,206,000.  This is 0.2 percent (±15.2%)* above the revised June estimate of 1,204,000 and is 10.1 percent (±10.8%)* above the July 2014 rate of 1,095,000.
Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 782,000; this is 12.8 percent (±9.8%) above the revised June figure of 693,000.  The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 413,000.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 987,000.  This is 2.4 percent (±13.4%)* above the revised June estimate of 964,000 and is 14.6 percent (±11.5%) above the July 2014 rate of 861,000.

Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 627,000; this is 1.4 percent (±10.9%)* below the revised June rate of 636,000.  The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 350,000.

Hardly the end of the world, eh?

Tomorrow on the Peoplenomics side, we will look at container counts through ports and other real indicators of what’s going on in ‘Merica. 

Soft Markets

Chinese Stocks fell more than 6% overnight.  You can pencil in your own Elliott count over here, but looks like a….naw, you wouldn’t care.

CPI and Fed Minutes tomorrow. 

Dow futures down 50’ish and S&P futures down 5’ish which, not to repeat myself, is not a world ender.

Things That Matter Little

Yeah, makes for flashy television coverage but tell me again how the Deadly Shrine Blast in Thailand matters to our economic outlook?

A Question for My Bro-in-Law

Retired Ranger and SF’er Panama Bates will get a question as soon as he drops by this morning.

It’ll go something like this:  “Panama you see where two women are graduating Ranger School?  Can I reference them on my site as the real Darby Queens?

Eight ladies started the class.  Two Rangers completing.

Meantime, “terrifying” doesn’t exactly describe the Boston Dynamics robot described over here.  Just shoot the extension cord.  D’uh.

Political Correctness Dept.

If you’re a gay couple thinking of eloping to Kentucky, seems like that might be a little premature just yet as things are in legal limbo.

Why a gay couple would chose Kentucky baffles me.  Seriously, Kentucky?   Mitch McConnell country?  Hello?

DIRT: "Day Information Residue" Trading
Coping: With Predictive Warfare/Beat On George Day