"The 100-Year Toaster" (Ch. 3)

Today: Limits to Growth:  People, Resources, and Money.  But, far more important, in our “Replaying 1929” charts, we have this week a broken critical support and the gates of hell may be getting ready to open earlier than anyone planned.

We’ll run you through the charts and a prediction of an S&P 500 below 2,000 after a couple of headlines and yes, more coffee!

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28 thoughts on “"The 100-Year Toaster" (Ch. 3)”

  1. But, but its different this time..NOT!

    Take von mueller, please, he was “flipped” over a year ago.. Think about it, he was not interviewing w/Trump for Dir job – law says he cant be Dir.

    So what was he interviewing for..his life..”play along or DIE”..ie execution. A LARP designed to catch more Rats – and catch rats&rhinos it did..

    Short the market, Short individual stocks, Long Gold Miners & PM Streamers. Summertime BBQ trade is Profitable and getting more so – raise those Stops on your Live Whole Hogs – African Swine Flu Fried Rice anyone? Did U Sell in May ?

    • Typhoid Fever and Bubonic Plague coming to an infested city near you. Another takedown marker for the once Great USA.

  2. 140 days ago or so…

    “On January 23, 2019, at around 12:30 pm, five women – four employees and a customer – were shot and killed at the SunTrust Bank in Sebring, Florida. After being named a suspect, 21-year-old Zephen Xaver turned himself in to police. He has pleaded not guilty to five murders. Wikipedia
    Date: January 23, 2019”

  3. George you seem concerned about the way things are stacking up world wide. Rightly so I feel. I have always felt and sermonized that what we need is a good great deflationary depression. Many might not make it through but would correct a lot of monetary and social evils.

    • One big problem with a depression is that it could go either way, depending on the printing press. If we went inflationary, it would tend toward war and authoritarianism. The investments there are well defined. If we went deflationary, there are no good investments to my knowledge, other than tools and preparedness. We can invest in cash, but if the money were to fail, we’d be broke. Foreign cash may have value or may not. Travel may be restricted and you couldn’t spend it. Information may or may not flow easily. It would degenerate from bargains galore to a total crapshoot. Another problem with deflationary depressions is that they tend to be self-reinforcing, with no incentive to spend more than the minimum. Regardless, we may actually need one.

  4. Tyler sounds like a good spot to land.

    Looking at the tariff news from a historical perspective, Trump appears to be using his tariff powers exactly as Franklin Roosevelt envisioned them, despite the claims of the leftists and progressives, and increasingly, the brown shirt R’s. Before FDR, tariffs were enacted by the congress, and in the decades prior to FDR taking office, tariffs as taxation got completely out of control, with rates being set above the 60% rate in some cases. The progressives blamed tariffs for the Great Depression, and while they were certainly a factor, worldwide industrial over-production, out-of-control margin buying and unsecured, unregulated credit were probably more important in the big picture.
    Under FDR, progressive reform of the tariff system put tariffs under the control of the executive branch as an extension of foreign trade policy. While the goal was to abolish tariffs, one must note that the US of the 1920’s was very different from the America of today. In the first decades of the last century, the US had become an industrial manufacturing powerhouse, and any trade policy that discouraged exports was not in the American interest. FDR’s reforms simply acknowledged the reality of that era. We live in post-industrial America.
    We now have major trading partners whose partnerships were rammed down the country’s throats by corporate brown shirts, whose main interests are union-busting and easy labor exploitation. American industrial might has been sawed up and carted out of country to enrich trading partners who are the dregs of the earth.
    These predatory trading partners have eluded oversight by gaming the US political system with wholesale bribery, and political subversion of American political institutions. FDR’s tariff system was set up to allow the executive branch to use tariffs to reign in predatory trading partners who threaten our economy, and our political institutions. This is exactly what Trump is doing. Why his predecessors didn’t use this option indicates the level this country has been compromised by all of the partisan political gangs and their foreign paymasters.
    It can be argued that we are already in a stealth depression II, and have been so for decades, with careful propagandizing of what were once honest government economic statistics being used to game the general public. If the current economic situation collapses publicly, the same factors which dominated the 1930’s scene, worldwide industrial over-production, out-of-control stealth margin buying and unsecured credit by both private and state actors will be at the bottom of it. The overuse of credit by state actors (sovereign state debt) is being fueled by unrealistic expectations of social safety nets being put forth by, yes, you guessed it, progressives and their hard-left cousins. Unfortunately, foreign investors and low paying service jobs aren’t going to pay for a socialist Nirvana indefinitely. The unpaid bills for decades of economic mismanagement and political corruption will be coming due sooner or later, and it is later than you think. Don’t expect there to be any place to hide, because the crumbs that aren’t consumed by meltdown will be gobbled up by the leftist rats and their revenuers.

    • Very well written summation, except for one part. Everyone wants to blame the left. Why? What’s the proof? What’s the motivation of the left to have bad trade policies?

      The only group promoting the trade policies that we have are the multi-national corporations. And what about Republicans? They are the ones that help promote production overseas and opened up China, Mexico, India and other Asian continent production facilities. They are the ones that busted up unions and are still trying.

      Are predatory trading partners to blame, or is it shareholders and the quest for profit the main culprit? In my opinion…Corporations are to blame…but so are the consumers who demand the cheaper goods and cheaper labor to make consumers and shareholders happy. . It’s a never ending conundrum.

      • There’s a reasonable balance between domestic and foreign production. We’ve gone far overboard in sending our production tools overseas and maintaining little domestically. It’s really terrible when a company wants to produce domestically and can’t find subs with competence, nor domestic raw materials to purchase. We need to restore some balance, and those things that are vital to national security(military chips, etc) really do need design, oversight and production within our country.

        There’s a bigger problem than just China. We’ve made too many enemies in the world and shown too much weakness and vacillation over many years, all the while interfering with the affairs of others. While Mexico is trying to mend fences with the USA, it’s allowing aliens to move through their country to the US. This is part of the problem, since their southern border is far shorter than ours is. A token tariff is a warning for them to toughen their southern border. I’m sure that we’d help them if they asked.

        My personal distaste for the democrats is their desire to change my behavior. I avoid bothering people and expect the same from government and others. I do my duties as I was raised to and want to be left alone. I don’t want monstrous “health” care and would much rather pay my money for a massage girl. I may never use a weapon other than for target practice, yet it’s my right to own it. I don’t like having to push back every single time against these repeated attacks on rights. The republicans are not much better, but they are a bit less invasive.

      • I don’t think I made any statement defending anyone in the matter except maybe Trump, who I regard as a part-time populist of sort, though he is not above pulling from the FDR playbook:

        “Trump appears to be using his tariff powers exactly as Franklin Roosevelt envisioned them, despite the claims of the leftists and progressives, and increasingly, the brown shirt R’s.”

        “We now have major trading partners whose partnerships were rammed down the country’s throats by corporate brown shirts, whose main interests are union-busting and easy labor exploitation”.

        “Why his predecessors didn’t use this option indicates the level this country has been compromised by all of the partisan political gangs and their foreign paymasters.”

        Whether the Republicans and corporates are true right wingers or just leftist brown shirts in three piece drag is apparently of significance to you, but in this case, all are guilty, so that issue is really irrelevant to this discussion. The looting may have started with the right wingers, but the situation has evolved drastically since.

        Consumers are no longer being given choices of American versus foreign manufacture, so how do you blame the consumer?

        Last, the leftists are playing to be the last rats standing, and given their track record for taking down ships, I fully expect that they will drown themselves and the rest of us before the shipwreck is finished.

      • Mark,

        Isn’t there a saying something to the effect of if an entity keeps doing the same things, it shouldn’t expect a different outcome than what transpired before?

        Maybe welfare capitalism is getting more than a bit threadbare around the edges?

        One can but wonder what the future holds, inshallah?

      • Didnt Bill Clinton sign NAFTA? Didnt Clinton and the DLC effectively cause the dems to partner with the corporations to eliminate the dependence on the unions, thus causing the dems to pursue favor with the corps to compete with the repubs, in who could give the most succor to their biggest donors ?

      • Robert – Those are excellent historical points on the Clintonistas. FDR’s partnering with the trade unions, and for that matter the mob, had more to do with getting things done than compatible ideologies. FDR and the progressives publicly espoused fairness for all, but in practice, were more fair to groups who could meet schedules.
        Single party leftists will only be friends of the American labor movements until they consolidate power; meanwhile, thinning out the union ranks and replacing union wage earners with a global slave labor force is a priority of the hard left.

  5. …But George, I already have a “100 year toaster!”

    Part of my theory of product development is that when a new product makes the move from drawing board to prototype rack, its engineers strive to build a “perfect” product. They make their best-possible attempt to develop a “toaster” which will perform perfectly and last forever, with no, or minimal maintenance.

    After they create this perfect (or as nearly perfect as engineering limitations, materials, and manufacturing processes allow) product, they will “test market” it to garner consumer input and build reputation. The “test” might run several years (as it did with Sunbeam’s T-20 “Automatic Toaster”), or several days, as Microsoft does with its bloatware.

    Once a test is deemed “successful,” the bean-counters descend on the dev team (because engineers “always overengineer”) and demand a re-engineer, to cut cost, raise retail price, or both. The Sunbeam T-25 is nearly as good as the T-20 (and is probably still a “100 year toaster.”) By casting the Bakelite handles thinner, they were able to make them broader. By making the “darkness/lightness” adjuster a slider and moving it to the front, and losing the fabric cord and art deco scrollwork, they were able to advertise “easier to use, easier to clean, more-versatile, etc.,” and also [able] to bump the price 25%. Once again, a tremendously successful product.

    Thence cometh again the counters of beans…

    The T-ATW (still sold today at Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s, and other upscale department stores for ~$219.00), first developed in the 1960s (and periodically “updated” since), replaced the T-20/25 HT rubber and fiberglass insulation with mesh plastic, replaced the Bakelite with cast resin, added plastic, removed stainless, shrank wire sizes, and cheapened its innards. I haven’t taken an ATW apart since the 1980s, so I don’t know how much it’s been further cheapened — probably coupled the slider to a pot, instead of simply having it slide across the bi-metallic strip, and added a bunch of electronics (which do nothing, except ensure failure…) The Sunbeam Automatic is still the finest toaster on the market, anywhere in the world, but “finest” is a terribly arbitrary term in today’s society, and sureashell doesn’t carry the same weight or meaning it used to.

    I took a “modern” ($10) Toastmaster apart a few years back. Thermistor, 555, carbon pot, (cute little solenoid on the drawer release), electronics on the (not heat-shielded) PCB that’d cost me $40 to replicate from Mouser or Digi-Key, Cycolac-esque case, etc. It worked two years, then crapped-out… but it was “modern” and “only cost $10.”

    We can build a “100-year toaster.” We already have. The real problem is nobody wants one, and that’s a purely emotional issue caused and sustained by a society that can’t recognize the Hand of MadAve, uses “change” to alleviate boredom (change is good, right?) or delineate the meanings of, or differentiate between the words “need” and “want…”

    • Correction: The Sunbeam ATW is out of production. The ones I saw at Macy’s a Christmas ago were shelf-stock…

  6. Interesting. I was concerned about depletion back in the mid 60’s when I was in high school. My dad kept telling me not to worry about it. Malthus was ridiculed in his day too. I was concerned that machines using combustion engines would use up more oxygen than plants could make, and I still am. We’re doing our best to kill the oceans and rain forests.

    I had the same concern about feeding people – that they would breed. Putting contraceptives in the water is a bad idea since it screws up all the ecosystems, not just people. Innoculations against pregnancy using HCG have been tried and distributed by the Gates foundation, though there was serious pushback from rights organizations and governments. Regardless, we need to do something or we will get a 90% dieback. IMHO, unsuccessful breeding attempts will keep people quiet and happy, while limiting their time or inclination to do terrible things, like war and crimes. Another problem with mass education is that we’re educated to be consumers, not scholars. Consumers need to spend money to be entertained. Scholars entertain themselves through their own inquiring minds. Though I’m no scholar, I entertain myself most of the time just creating things in my mind and connecting the dots. My desire to consume is very limited – mostly raw materials, parts and tools. My own diet is quite straightforward with little variety. No waste, and little cost. I have no desire for a different or more complex diet. This can be taught if there was a reason to do so, and there’s no reason to limit it to diets.

    I’ve yet to see a coherent economic model for successfully downsizing a nation or a world. At this point I’d be happy to see such a thing for a community. It’s necessary and overdue.

    I’m looking forward to the next chapter!

  7. “Would birth control in water supplies” – as you rail against the Transgender and its growth. To me it is the endocrine disruptors in our food and water supplies creating the problem. I have dealt with the issue all of my life and recently came to terms with the fact my brain operates more like a womans, than my chromosomes would indicate it should. Lab tests show hormone levels at half of what male ones should be and three times female levels and im not obese.

    Anyway… to enlighten yourself.




    • The elites have not spent billions of trillions researching and controlling the slaves for nothing. They know EXACTLY how much hormone disrupters that need to be delivered at the exact window of time in gestation to affect the developing decision for male or female. Why do you think these disrupters are everyway in everything? Receipts, food can lining, plastic bottles, plastic everything, too much to list. This rise of the transgender, soy boy beta males has been launched purposefully. The movement of people’s around the world is also for destruction of developed societies. Vaccine damage is taking out 25 percent of the males right now. The more one looks under their nose, the more one knows.

    • But how do you know how a woman operates and feels? That’s what I dont understand?

      Whatever happened to effeminate men and butch women? Some were even straight but many identified as gay/lesbian. Ive known many of each and 99% never said they were in the wrong body. What’s changed?

  8. Being about the same age, we are asking similar questions about where to live……..haven’t lived in a town of any size in years and it would be a shock under the best of circumstances. A big stumbling block we have is what if one of us croaks or is seriously ill and not the other. Simplifying everything to do with maintaining life comes to mind. But what else? Worse possible outcome seems to be one person who is unable to maintain current residence by themselves, no reliable help from neighbors or too much help needed to be reasonable, and no one available to hire to help forces a move to town at a time not of our choosing. Ideas??????????

    • Dear Mr. I have pondered your situation and it is the same problem everyone must face sooner or later. At 85 am enjoying life more than at any other time in this existence. Thinking about it can find no one size fits all for this problem. The one thing I can suggest is to practice being flexible. When life gives you lemons smile and make lemonade. Could pass on many suggestions that I have experienced, but each person has their own circumstances. Learning to experience life as a small child with each moment bringing new amazement can be of value. Lastly have fun cause you aint gonna get out of it alive.

  9. Living most of my life in the center of a very very large metropolitan area, I went for a walk this morning and I realized, that most of us are, indeed, living in paradise as far as choices and opportunities are available.

    The feeling lasted for more than two hours, and I truly wish more people would enjoy this kind of feeling good.

    OTH, what needs to be said is that it was all said and printed before, and not much has contributed to make much of a difference in most people’s lifes.

  10. Utilities cost per month a pain. Close to city just outside of water and sewer cost 150.00 p/m

    • prop tax $545 per year, water $38/month, power to augment solar: $175 avg. Garbage $23.
      Yah got income and outgo. We’ve kept our lows as possible.

      • Wow….I’d I say that…WOW… maybe I need to move to the outback..
        Garbage 38 a month and going up..prop. tax just shy two hundred a month.. solar has paid for itself completely .

      • Oh yeah water and sewer..140 p/m and they need road repairs… so it will be going up

        Electric is the cheapest.. we have to pay facility connections fee no matter what.. electric is about nine dollar a month on top of that.
        We actually produce more than we use but have to pay for sundown hours

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