The End of the World is not yet at hand. Yet, if you pay close attention, you can “almost hear it” at times.
Let’s start with the market knock-down Thursday which will continue into this morning according to futures prices. Our Aggregate Index approach to markets shows pretty clearly the decisive area we’ve now entered:
The ghostly/ghastly white arrow makes the point that we broke below the newest emerging declining trend channel Thursday. We are likely to see a “goal line stand” around the end of the ascending trend line below that.
What we MIGHT infer from such tea leaves is a decline today (to the lower trend level) and then a half-assed rally Monday. Which would give commercials and greedy day trading pricks (like me) a chance to consider shorting around Monday highs before the Consumer Price Index report next Tuesday.
We don’t offer this as “trading advice” – it’s only entertainment. Which (being geniuses) we somehow manage to pay income tax on. Go figure.
Bank Failures Ahead
By our reckoning, there shouldn’t be any additional bank failures for another month of three. But those are likely because of “Dead Companies Walking.” Which means, all of these silly (to outright stupid) venture-based monstrosities with no sales an only good fairytales to tell in Silly Con’s Valley.
My consigliere explained them simply (*since I’m slow and dull-witted): When a company has a huge amount of capital, debt service being near zero allows the fairytale to keep “adding chapters.” But when rates return to historical levels (6-8 percent) all this blows up.
This is when the bankster class, leaching on the fairytale writers, find themselves short and rather than sell the Big House in Los Gatos, they make moves to foist their business malfeasance off onto the General Population.
Hinting thusly and so-wise is Everyone’s freaking out about SVB because everyone else is freaking out about SVB.
We’re not too worried for the banks – they will live the life of tax-advantaged, bailed-out, luxury via crypto cons, offshore accounts, and tax loss carry-forwards. At least it’s a life for some…
Speaking of the Crypto Con
Notice how BTC crashed under $19,700 overnight? Old Man Sense still works. If something seems too good to be true? Usually is.
A thousand dollars outdated, we nevertheless offer Bitcoin Price Drops Below $21K As Biden Unveils New U.S. Budget of further confirmation of our warnings since the concoins arrived: The Government cannot and will not allow its lock on money to be wrested from those sweaty-smarmy bureaucratic hands. If you believe otherwise, get thee to Reality Counseling, post haste.
A Collapse of Silly Con Valley “dead companies walking” and a mass depopulation of the “unicorn companies” – startups with a billion in market cap and only entertaining stories to sell qualified investors who should know better. Now toss in a “coming to Jesus” of the liars (and worse) in made-up money?
I’m a pretty good writer (at least on volume, if not quality) but damned if I can write a happy-ending with any legs to it. Result? Our wise readers asked me if we’d seen any fresh bank failures?
We pulled down the data (.xlsx file bankfails as of today here) but the short answer is since 2000, there have been 563 bank failures, none recently, and only 24 when the first dot bomb bungle imploded. Most of the damage was in Housing-sullied banks.
So much for the foreplay. Let’s return to Screwed – streaming version – with a check of the…
“The Unicorns Died Broke: sounds like a dandy title if you like writing a novel and care to mix woke, runaway environmental silliness, reparations for all, with a splash of retro Tom Wolfe’s Bonfire, though. Go ahead, send me a review copy or a galley when you’re done. But be quick about it.
You know Slo’s budget mentioned “equity” 60+ times? Ohio won’t be the last of America’s train wrecks, we’re nearly certain. It’s a good day to stay off bridges and out of high buildings.
Federal Jobs Report
Let’s begin in the pig stye, since this is where we’d expect to find hogwash.
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.”
Exsqueeze me? Almost a third of a million new employees hired and the jobless rate goes UP?
Now, the first sniff of Reality is in the jiggering of population and workforce…
Anyone wanna tellabrother where 419,000 new workers came from?
And then we move on to total number of people (allegedly working):
Guidance: The headline +311,000 is political BS. The real number is the +177,000 in the data above. Which when you look at the population (+150,000) suggests employment should get better, not worse… But jobs didn’t “rise by 311,000 unless you’re statistically challenged.
And from there, the number of these “new jobs” that were ESTIMATED into existence in the CES Birth-Death Model.
Near as we can figure it, 1,000 more people is the real increase on a hard-nosed, statistically reliable basis plus whatever truth is to be believed in the CES model estimate. Good God.
All that and the funny business with Silvergate Capital Is Shutting Down — Shares Are Tanking | The Motley Fool and the government figuring a way to keep its lock on money shenanigans with their own crypto scam: SWIFT to go forward with next phase of CBDC experimentation | The Financial Express and a fine time is assured all those in attendance.
Since the “profits” this week have left us feeling a little “flushed” how about we check out the rest of the septic field and see what headlines are clogging the pipeline to Collapse, shall we?
I mean, ever since I was a kid, I’ve wanted to reprise the roll of Mr. Whipple in the Charmin ads. Also called “George the Grocer” the similarity in first names is pertinent, methinks. Although finance was a better topic choice than proctology because “Money is the Important New Shit.” Besides: ever look for a proctology blog?
“Ham Sandwich” Trump tracker: Trump offered chance to testify to New York grand jury:… My reference is no slur. Rather, a reference to New York State chief judge Sol Wachtler was famously quoted by author Tom Wolfe in The Bonfire of the Vanities saying “a grand jury could ‘indict a ham sandwich,’ if that’s what you wanted. We do ham sandwiches on wry.
Dead Men Budgeting: Ever notice in all this talk about budgets in D.C. how the Pinnochio Club (congress) and the Ovalists all talk about solving a budget crisis long after they’re gone from office? Just looking at the story (because it’s such obvious electioneering bullshit) Biden’s 2024 budget to cut deficits by $3 trillion over next decade – CGTN brings me to the point. Why didn’t he just come out and say he’s got a plan for a balanced budget by 2099? Such hype – I want it all fixed RIGHT FRICKIN NOW because at 74 I don’t have 10-years to be f**king around waiting for results from these peckers. (Maybe you do and I’m just impatient.) Feels like the “little teapot” song from childhood. “Bend me over and pour me out…” (or something like that). “Tip?” “Bend?” Like it matters?
(Are we having fun yet? Shall we keep going?)
If this is Love from a Benevolent Deity? NASA warns of asteroid that could strike Earth – on Valentine’s Day 2046 – Study Finds. Thanks God. Not good enough to simply do a Sodom and G-spot replay?
Similarly, unsweet: Zero-calorie sweetener could be linked to health risks, study says – mlive.com. Back to honey in the tea instead of the “laced stevia” stuff. Truly a mess.
War and Pills
Oh boy. Cyberattack on Russia or nuclear attack? – “Nuclear dropped, take iodine pills & run to shelters” – What moves cause concern… Is this the beginning of Vlad’s countdown to nukes?
Musk is Getting Close
We are pleased to report that Elon Musk, who we reckon can build a plant and intellectual mecca pretty-much anywhere has decided on a spot about 180 miles from our Uretopia to his Utopia: Elon Musk Is Planning a Texas Utopia—His Own Town. Town of Bastrop, which would make near enough to be “neighbors.”
What I find interesting is that whatever his search criteria were, they came up with a similar answer to what we did when we decided to move here back in 2003. Great minds think alike?
Or…there goes the neighborhood…
Around the Ranch
Tax weekend for me. We always overpay. We always get something back. It’s just a matter of how much.
The real problems in life? Well, don’t have too many of them.
Elaine’s working on a painting, my version is the ceiling repairs in the guest room which I’ve been shirking, postponing, and excusifying (I have advanced degrees in these). Michael Georgealo’s mural? The warm weather is past and it’s almost time to ditch the diesel in the greenhouse and do the spring tune-up on the swamp cooler.
Never a dull moment, but wouldn’t it be nice?
Lawn mower is on the tickle trickle waiting for the first run at the lawn which will be along in a week, or so.
The two new feral cats turn out to be a couple: Sam (the Siamese) is the husband of the small and now very suspiciously fat-looking long-haired black cat with white accents. They’re nearly inseparable – which is nice to watch. Didn’t know cats had such a strong mating/loyalty thing going. Geese? Sure, but feral cats?
Ahead: Monday looks pretty boring, so down today, and a Monday rally with a Tuesday wipeout seems like a reasonable outlook. Except reason and finance are in whole other parts of the dictionary, so who knows.
Gotta get the outside garden greenhouse going, too… so much to do, so little ibuprofen.
Have a great weekend – ShopTalk Sunday will be along, uh, guess when?
Write when you’re thinking, not just woke,