Although the Trump-haters are out in force – trying to drum up another phony impeachment drive – there and still several much more important stories in play this morning, so let’s use brain cells instead of our adrenals, shall we?
Death toll is up to to 1,384 and the confirmed cases (which China has changed counting on) is up to 64,456 as of click time.
Your keyword (hidden variable) that’s driving is? “virus supply chain.” Some hits to read (as we await stock market /shocked market anagnorisis):
- Coronavirus is throwing fashion’s supply chain into disarray
- Businesses struggle to fix supply chains disrupted by virus.
- Virus Exposes Cracks in Carmakers’ Chinese Supply Chains and
- Coronavirus shakes centre of world’s tech supply chain.
You have the keywords…have fun and let’s see who’s “talking their book” on CNBC and Gloomberg this morning, shall we?
Retail Flails: Up…BUT…
Just out from the Census Bureau, a look at ho retail’s doing:
“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $529.8 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 4.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2019.
Total sales for the November 2019 through January 2020 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2019 to December 2019 percent change was revised from up 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*. Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from December 2019, and 4.0 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 10.4 percent (±1.2 percent) from January 2019, and nonstore retailers were up 8.4 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year. “
“Wait Ure! You said FLAILS – yet this is a great number!”
Not so fast, buggeroo: Sales are up over 4%, right? BUT incomes are not up that much – if at all – when you look at consumer discretionary. Ergo, we’re going into debt at a HUMONGOUS rate!
The stock futures this morning though were not much different than yesterday’s close. Something like +35 on the Dow. Wanna bet on who’s going to be dense enough to hold long positions over the weekend?
Be looking for “markets closed” announcements this weekend of more COVID-19 cases and cordwood…be interesting to see if there’s any “timing” there.
Stocks would have dropped Thursday, but as we suggested, the Fed;’s Repo Depo popped with an additional $450-million Thursday afternoon, as we warned you might be coming. Well, sure enough…
This morning the Fed NY Desk is tossing $37.65 -billion worth of logs on the bonfire of the equities, which continue in position (as we told our Peoplenomics subscribers Wednesday) to melt up another 10-percent, even from these insane levels.
Oh, and the M1 close-in MuM (making up money) rate in the H.6 money stocks report jumps from 7.5% in last week’s confessional to 7.9% (table 2) this week.
Whether they will is problematic based on Impeachment drive #2, the Wuhan disaster spread-rates, and the prospect of the Bernunist taking the claimed lead for the dumbocrats.
This is not to say that dumbocrats are the only lame-brains in the room. Both factions of the Repugnant Party have much the same issues.
The reasons is (in computational analytics) due to the “model space” (mental visualization methods) used in people’s cerebral cortex to “visualize” Reality.
The trick in the modelspace is that easily manipulated “false choices” are presented by the (similarly construct-impaired) media. Most everything they offer is offers with an attached opinion. Reminiscent of the failing Charmin and Klingon ‘s. The attachments stink.
Hold that thought. (OK, spritz of Lysol if you must!) Let’s get the Trump-hate angle out of the way. This will go deep but you may learn something.
Trump: Woes of the ADHD-D Micromanager
Contrary to the opinions of some of our readers (left coasties, mainly) my “unbiased, modelspace-based news analysis” of Donald Trump runs something like this:
Trump is ADHD. I know this because I too, am ADHD. So are my offspring, to one degree, or another. A friend explained to me long ago (he’s the publisher of Marketing) “Guru, you’re a freaking genius. What you need is focus.”
“Lary, I just can’t,” I explained to him. “There’s just so much that is interesting, calls for easily done personal research, and holds great potential for breakthrsough that my life is struct56ured not just to m ake a few bucks, but also to research like hell, write, and push up against all kinds oif boundaries.”
That, dear reader, is also the kind of personality Donald Trump has.
He is a high-energy person to the extreme. And, when I use my “speed crown” (a special kind of photobiomodulation device I invented to pump photons into the brain via stimulation of the trigeminal nerve pack) I too can reduce sleep to 4-5 hours per night and roll with unbelievable energy the entire time I’m awake.
Trump’s issue may be a form of ADHD coping skills.
Another ADHD person I knew had the same processes going on.
Genius engineer fellow and designer of paramilitary radio gear. He explained to me once that the only way he could “keep it together” was by inspecting every detail of everyone’s work and issuing corrections along the way. He was hell to work for, but his designs and products were very good. Well, except for a little more phase noise and jitter in the frequency synthesizer that degraded performance, but that’d be a long technical discussion and I do try to keep on point. ADHD, lol/
Comes down to this, when trying to understand Trump: One way ADHD people cope is by totally focusing on the details.. This is what Donald Trump does because of his upbringing.
My upbringing was different. I was shoved down the “rennaisance man” track by how life worked out – which results in something of a science-driven mad-man who’s tghrilled to be writing, while trying to unlock secrets of the Universe, and develop useful ways to analyze the market while also evolving insights into media distortion.
Did it occur to you that the reason I was a reporter for so long was that it was a source of continuous, widely varying, stimulation? That drives the polymath/multi-interest/Renaissance ADHD self.
The result of the polymath path (being a Root-Bernstein Type 4 with a side order of information synthesizer) is what my life’s been about. It’s all a lab and I wear the lab coat 16-hours a day.
Usually, like Thursday, I pick one topic, like news presentation layers and forced choice, then sit down and bang out 5-thousand words for Peoplenommics. In my world, the best self-management book ADHD types can read is Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World.
Donald Trump is the “other kind” of ADHD: The minutia, detail, and micromanager sort.
This is not a judgement so much as a recognition of a somewhat kindred spirit. I happen to think that a book like Deep Work – and encouraging Trump to really focus on (and solve) deep problems 8-hours a day – would be a real benefit both to his future and the country’s.
Unfortunately, a lot of people don’t know, appreciate, or understand the ADHD personality types well. Parenthetically, the average person thinks only in terms of IQ – and this reflects the topic we get into in Peoplenomics tomorrow…the issue of “forced choice” by previously biased experience. I doubt a single reporter covering Trump can label (themselves) ADHD Detailers or ADHD Polymaths.
I.Q. I assure you is not the hackneyed Bell (or Gaussian) distribution curves. That kind of thinking is for flat-landers. It’s really a topology and that means rendering thought in three dimensions which is one of the skills that frequently accompanies ADHD personalities.
OK, so much for me. Let’s focus on how Trump “presents” as might be viewed by a mental helath professional: Suspectiung that Trump is ADHD, and a Detailer, what does this headline tell us?
This screams that Barr hates working for a micro-manager. Tough parents in his background, maybe? Thing about ADHD’s is once you understand them, then they become very useful and you can learn mountains and oodles from them, some of which may be productively incorporated in your own thinking style.
When someone can’t deal with a micro-manager, they need to have a sit-down and point how a) HOW they are being micro-managing and b) OPTIONS to make the anti-micro-man person feel safe.
Viewed from this perspective, a LOT about Trump and related headlines comes into focus better than anything on lame-brain media:
Arthur Brooks discusses his disagreements with Trump at National Prayer Breakfast. Suggets another “doesn’t get it” in terms of workwing with ADHD-Detailer’s.
Ever desperate for a headline with falling ratings, then, stories like CNN’s Generals revolt against Trump, missed the larger context, too.
From my perspective as an ADHD-P (Trump is ADHD-D, remember) CNN also completely botches their analysis in Hope Hicks’s return is a sure sign of White House arrogance.
We will suggest instead the OBVIOUS: Some people thrive – and learn hugely – from working with ADHD-D type persons. I’d love to have a beer with Hicks some day because she is very, very likely bright enough to “get it” when comes to ADHD-management and how the very different high-energy thinking style really lays out onto two very-different paths. Trump again uses the ADHD-Detailer coping track.
I’d be willing to distill this down into three PowerPoint slides for White House staff if it would help!
Meantime, the other group (wholly out of touch and off on their own “we’re special” power trip are the democrats who are trying to wind up a difference in management styles into a cause-of-action to impeach. More bullshit, but what would you expect from statistical losers like Joke-who-haunts us “Warren: If Barr Won’t Resign, “House Should Start Impeachment Proceedings Against Him” And Defund Probes.”
Our coverage of this ongoing train wreck of Neanderthalian 2016 revenge will continue to attempt (despite how it will grate on everyone) to reveal what in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report will be the “additional dimensions” of news coverage. In this morning’s example, it’s how most “average” people don’t have not worked with a “wide range of thinking styles” and are therefore putting themselves into easily manipulated “corraled sheep.”
Once you expand you expand your thinking about news – and cast of the yoke of “false forced-choice” then you’ll be in a much better position not only to deal with other people in your life (in general) but to begin to use the “hidden variables” that the mostly inept press can’t comprehend.
Lest you think this reflects something of an elitism on my part, you’re absolutely right. Computational horsepower has elevated the entire world into 3D modelspace. You don’t want to remain a 2D forced-choice victim any longer than you have to. But if you do, the kind of 3D presentation layers of this site will definitely not be your cup of tea.
May we have the next hidden variable, please? The old flat-land/binary choicing presentation layer for “news” is now data-driven and so long as legacy media doesn’t grok the shift, you’ll keep reading stories like McClatchy newspaper chain files for bankruptcy and Charlie Munger will keep reaching for the Tums.
JFS: Just For Sheep
Go by Glider, or something? Delta Air Lines CEO announces the carrier will go ‘fully carbon neutral’ next month. The reporting on this is not impressive. As a former international jet airline VP, I want to know WTF he’s talking about? My 727-227-ADVs burned from 1,450 to 1,350 GPH (depending on stage length and Delta’s justs aren’t burning incense in them high-bypass turbofans, are they? Serious? Feed the sheep climate crap and they will fly? GMAFB. But the “carbon offset credits?” You mean climate shill’s equivalent to “wife-beating credits?” Who are these people and what have they done to the water at Hartsfield International?
Apparently our prayers for additional mental acuity are unanswered, though, as For tackling climate change, English bishops look to God—and cathedral heating.
Dumb and Dumber in Senate acts to restrain Trump’s military powers against Iran.
Guess who else has a booze lobby? New Mexico plan to legalize recreational cannabis sales is derailed. Am I the only one who undertsands that legalization would demonetize at least part of the immigration/invasion?
Oh boy…deep into breakfast and more deep work ahead.
Write when you get rich