It is too early in the day to offer an “I told you so…” BUT I did and it’s not to early to remind you of our outlook for the markets to pick up speed to the downside in coming weeks. Today is the first “hot day” I mentioned back on October 26th. The next … Read More
My old, dog-eared copy of Technical Analysis has been one of my better friends in trying to understand the market. And one of the most interesting of stock pattern formations is something called the “Double-Top.” To save time (and because its summer and I’m lazy and this ain’t Peoplenomics), here’s the short-version of it from … Read More
We have several dates for a Market High we are tracking – and the differences in what drives the dates are absolutely fascinating to think about. Why worry about a market high? Even some of today’s youngest workers are in the market, whether they know it, or not, through their 401-K or retirement programs at … Read More
The Eurostox 50 was down 1.7% at first glance. US marts are staring into a one-percent drop at the open.
Sleigh bells? Chestnuts? Open fires? Not around here – not this year. Mostly sunny and 77 today. Boxing Day will hit 81. To be sure, the East Texas outback is a different part of the country. Down here in “We say grace, we say mam, if you aint into that we don’t give a damn” country. Where … Read More
TL;DR: Physics is bound to catch up – one of these days. But they should have been able before me to find the Two Times of physics. (Long – bring extra coffee and a sleeping bag…) Yeah. The Time Machine Project…about that… Every shop has its ghosts. Mine just happen to hum between ten and … Read More
Gravity and Markets should be explained as today and tomorrow roll by. Reader dLynn is just one of our readers who was wondering WTF? about the Powell rally Friday. The answer is? It fills a trend line move. Now, in our ChartPack (Peoplenomics) gravity is “cleared for takeover.” Even my consigliere was calling over the weekend … Read More
With our ChartPack on the Peoplenomics side of the house ($40/year) showing the market back in “top-calling” territory, a number of moving pieces are sliding into place. PPI – Inflation to Come? Just out from Labor is the PPI read… The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. … Read More
Friday wrap-ups are easy to write these days. You start with a list of the week’s major events. Then you close your eyes and just sort of “see it” as a cartoon. “What would today look like with a hit of windowpane in the Ovaltine when I was a kid?” This ain’t Hanna-Barbera, but you’ll … Read More
Say, how about them retail sales numbers? “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $722.7 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2024. Total … Read More
Might as well get the GDP numbers out of the way first: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the second estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily … Read More
The Futuring game is always a fine one to play. Especially on a Long Weekend Friday. We like to “ballpark” what life could be like a week from now, by assembling the already-known Future events and then guessing the more probable event pathing to most likely outcomes. If you were to do this as a … Read More
Since our roots are in economics – and specifically long wave economics as in Kondratieff – we should begin with the money drivers, first. Specifically the Federal employment report just out: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics … Read More